The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[cakmoney61]

1 minute ago, Warhead36 said:

There are negative reports about every prospect every year. In aggregate this is an outstanding class of prospects. Of course nothing is guaranteed and they can all bust, but without the power of hindsight this is the type of class you dream of when you're a QB needy team picking at the top.

Over the years, the majority of these top QB prospects have not panned out and many ended up being busts.  I hope when Washington rolls the dice they hit.  Because it really is a roll of the dice.

[Llevron]

17 minutes ago, cakmoney61 said:

Now I'm back to being concerned that neither Maye nor Daniels is anything special.  And IMHO JJ is not an option at #2.  I've gone from Maye to Daniels to nobody to Daniels to nobody.  It's starting to look like the wrong year to have the #2 pick if you need a QB.  I'm not being convinced that anyone is good.  The negatives about Maye and Daniels are strong from those who oppose them. 

 

There is a lot of "all or nothing" and very little "I'd be elated with either."  It's very exhausting.

 

They all have talent and they all have things they can work on. Past that anything we or anyone else says means little until they are drafted and get to work. All of their flaws can be fixed or mitigated regardless of what anyone says. Mahomes had flaws, they were mitigated. Brady had flaws, he fixed them. Its always going to be like that. 

 

What you should be excited about is the organization we have. Whoever we pick, they seem to be willing to do whatever it takes to make them successful, and already have a lot in place to help them. Thats so much more important and we are already ahead of the game there. 

2 minutes ago, cakmoney61 said:

Over the years, the majority of these top QB prospects have not panned out and many ended up being busts.  I hope when Washington rolls the dice they hit.  Because it really is a roll of the dice.

 

That's because teams draft them thinking it will all just work itself out. This team is not doing that. Feel good about that. 

[Bantu]

7 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

There are negative reports about every prospect every year. In aggregate this is an outstanding class of prospects. Of course nothing is guaranteed and they can all bust, but without the power of hindsight this is the type of class you dream of when you're a QB needy team picking at the top.

The negative feeling is because this particular team is picking at the top so the scrutiny is THAT much more intense. I know people who are Panther fans who were agonizing in much the same way last season before the draft.

 

If Commies were picking 11, I think most would be much more inclined to point out the positives and the upside of the prospects. 

 

Objectively speaking, it is a perfectly fine QB draft class when compared to most years. Let's hope the guy they pick is THAT dude.

[Warhead36]

6 minutes ago, cakmoney61 said:

Over the years, the majority of these top QB prospects have not panned out and many ended up being busts.  I hope when Washington rolls the dice they hit.  Because it really is a roll of the dice.

Nobody is arguing otherwise. But by that logic you should never draft a QB because there is always a chance they can bust.

 

Just like...every single other position.

[kingdaddy]

1 hour ago, MartinC said:

I mean do they have any other option? A trade up to #1 or #2 is not happening. The Bears and its both need a QB and are both uninterested in trading out of those picks. New England have to be content with the QB left from Williams, Maye and Daniel’s after the first two picks. Whoever is left is a really really good consolation prize.

They certainly do have another option if they really prefer one of Daniels, Maye or McCarthy over the others, offer Washington an attractive deal to swap places. If Washington is OK with any of the three then maybe they take the offer but I guess this report is saying that NE will be happy with whichever QB falls to them at 3 just the same as we have to live with at 2 because the Bears won't trade out. To your point of us being uninterested in trading #2, if that's been made known to all teams, then I would say they really don't have any options other than seeing who falls to them. Have you heard that Washington is not interested in dealing #2? I remember hearing how they were taking calls but weren't enamored with any of the offers?

If NE offered #3, a 2nd and next years 1st to move up 1 spot because they have to have Daniels, I would think Peters would have to seriously consider that offer.....especially if he wants McCarthy.

[Dah-Dee]

New Keim article on ESPN this morning:

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39874845/what-dan-quinn-wants-quarterback

 

What Commanders coach Dan Quinn wants in a quarterback

When Washington Commanders coach Dan Quinn discusses his defensive philosophies, he'll often come back to one point: He wants to confuse the quarterback.

 

It should come as no surprise, then, that this particular philosophy would inform his search for a quarterback. His defensive background has shaped what he looks for in a QB.

 

"It definitely has," Quinn said, "because that's the person you're trying to [attack] the most."

 

Over the next three weeks, he and Commanders general manager Adam Peters must decide which QB to select with No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 draft -- Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye or perhaps even J.J. McCarthy.

 

While Peters will make the final call on the selection, this year will mark the first time Quinn has been charged with helping find a quarterback as head coach of a team. Matt Ryan was entering his eighth season when Quinn arrived in Atlanta in 2015.

 

Like any coach, Quinn wants to see mental and physical toughness, accuracy and arm strength. But he also knows how he likes to mess with quarterbacks as a defensive coordinator -- and, as a result, what he wants to see from them.

 

"How quickly can they process something? 'OK, it looks like zone but it's really man-to-man. It's two-high [safeties], it's one high,'" Quinn said. "All the triggers you want to get to, can you do it after the ball gets in his hand? Can we disguise [defenses] to make them really have to figure it out after the snap? The best of the best? 'I can process as I'm taking the ball, as I'm going through the play.'

 

"That's what I look for. How do they respond when the unblocked blitzer comes?"

 

Quinn also has relied on Peters and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury for their insight throughout the draft process. Kingsbury has worked with a number of top quarterbacks over the years, from Patrick Mahomes at Texas Tech to Kyler Murray with the Arizona Cardinals and, last year, Caleb Williams at USC. Peters has scouted college players since 2003. As an assistant general manager in San Francisco, Peters was part of a group that traded up to draft Trey Lance in 2021 and selected Brock Purdy with the final pick a year later.

 

Lance was traded to the Dallas Cowboys after two seasons and only 102 pass attempts in San Francisco. But Purdy became the starter midway through the 2022 seasons and has led the 49ers to back-to-back NFC title games and a Super Bowl appearance.

 

"You learn more and more every time you do it," Peters said, "and most of them are mistakes. It's really hard to evaluate quarterbacks, but you just try to get better and try to understand what you did the last time that was really good and what you did last time that was really bad. Different processes, hopefully there's not a whole lot of bad things that you did, but you always learn. And so it's constantly evolving and I don't think anybody has the magic pill to understand that one. If they do let me know, I'll hire them."

 

But when looking for qualities that they believe can translate to the NFL, there are boxes to check.

 

"How quickly can a guy make a right decision?" Quinn said. "How quickly can he speed up when a blitz is coming? How quickly can [he] anticipate when those things happen? So, I've really been mindful of watching and say not just the throwing motion or the accuracy, but what happens? Can you get out of a bad play?"

 

Daniels, the 2023 Heisman trophy winner out of LSU, has shown the ability to hurt defenses with his legs, rushing for 1,134 yards last season in addition to 3,812 passing yards and 40 touchdowns.

 

Quinn said seeing Daniels play against SEC defenses helped in his evaluation.

 

"Man, they have had concepts and looks and different things and Jayden has been able to really process things quickly," Quinn said.

 

Maye is not considered the same level of athlete as Daniels but he, too, can use his legs when needed, rushing for 1,209 yards over his three seasons at North Carolina. Last season, he threw for 3,608 yards with 24 touchdown passes.

 

"What you see is ability to create and get outside on the run," Quinn said. "If the protection breaks down, boom, he can create and go. I thought that's one of his superpowers for sure."

 

Quinn said evaluating the quarterback position is different than any other.

 

"With the quarterback you really have to watch every single play to say did he get them out of a bad play here in a run game? Did he, you know, move outside? So, it's not just the throws, you encompass everything," Quinn said. "Don't just look at the throws but look at an entire game. And then you'll really have an assessment about 'Did you scramble to remain a passer? Did you know sometimes a throw away was the best decision right here?' It wouldn't show that on the stat sheet, but that was actually a really good decision. And so those are the things that I've been digging in on."

 

Edited April 5 by Dah-Dee

[Warhead36]

Pats have no incentive to swap and we have no incentive to move down and risk losing the guy we like. 

 

Its pointless to argue about trading the pick. We aren't. 

1 minute ago, Dah-Dee said:

New Keim article on ESPN this morning:

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39874845/what-dan-quinn-wants-quarterback

 

 

So basically a whole bunch of nothing lolol

[cakmoney61]

4 minutes ago, Llevron said:

 

They all have talent and they all have things they can work on. Past that anything we or anyone else says means little until they are drafted and get to work. All of their flaws can be fixed or mitigated regardless of what anyone says. Mahomes had flaws, they were mitigated. Brady had flaws, he fixed them. Its always going to be like that. 

 

What you should be excited about is the organization we have. Whoever we pick, they seem to be willing to do whatever it takes to make them successful, and already have a lot in place to help them. Thats so much more important and we are already ahead of the game there. 

Well said.  I can absolutely hang my hat on the high quality of new ownership, new front office personnel, and new coaches.  I know due diligence is being done by all to be a winning organization and team again.

[mudhog]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

A.  He thinks it would be Daniels over Maye.  Reasoning isn't a leak about what Peters wants but he keeps asking coaches he knows including some he respects as offensive minds.  And its been 100% Daniels > Maye.  He gets the vibe its not neck and neck but a clear peg advantage for Daniels so he's guessing there must be something to that.  Standig has suggested something similar when he probes the same topic.  I know some here say this can't be true or coaches are purposely lying to Keim but that seems silly. Keim isn't stupid.  And he's asking coaches who aren't taking a QB.  He really highlights hard that some of these are really good offensive minds -- he doesn't say whom but am guessing Kyle is one of them.

 

There's something in the whole 'Daniel's has a clear peg advantage' to me that doesn't add up. And the fact that Keim is involved in this in any way is troubling to me. It seems to give a certain bona-fides to the echo-chamber of the NFL that we are going Daniels when we haven't given any indication either way.

Years ago a prominent lawyer explained to me how a judge finds a verdict in so many different cases in which he has very limited knowledge of the facts, participants, motivations, etc... He said that judges simply have a check-list of aggravating and mitigating factors. A sheet of paper, split down the middle, with check-marks on either side. So the prosecution has all it's aggravating checks on one side, and defense pumps out it's mitigating checks on the other. Minus something glaringly obvious, a judge will simply opt for the side with the most checks.

So, in this case, we are the judges. Set aside personal likes and biases we have for Maye or Daniels, we are simply gathering check-marks for both these guys. Aggravating and mitigating factors as to weather we should or shouldn't take either. Speaking for myself, it's been Maye for the whole time since before we even had the pick.

I'm not a scout, but I've watched a crap-load of football in my life and I trust my own judgement. The checks are heavily weighted for Maye on my page. With all of us here, I've felt the hope, and then the crushing despair of RG3 in 2012. I don't want another QB whos instinct is to bag-ass when things look just a bit sketchy. I want a thumper like Sam Howell, who stands tall in the pocket and keeps his head up and down range and find his targets even though he knows he's gonna take the hit. For me that's Maye.

What gnaws at me about this above all is these super-smart douchebags in the sports media treating us as if this were the previous regime. Asshat Snider would be sold months ago on one particular candidate, and no amount of film or stats or evidence of any kind was going to budge him. I hate to even speculate how many times a media narrative driven by one of his 'buddies' in the sports world caused him to be sold immediately on some team's trash cast-off. Albert Haynesworth, ugggggg!

So, to my point, Keim seems to be going against his own instincts on this and NOT verifying it 7 times, but hollowly parroting the rest of the dipsticks around him. The simple fact that HE says it gives it the cred. 

 

Another thing that gnaws at me is that these same super-smart sports media douchebags just stamp us with Daniels because he's the most ready day 1 starter as far as many are concerned. Like we are mobilizing every asset for an immediate contender, without regard to long-term plans.  While I can agree with that somewhat about Daniels, that's not how GMAP and the Harris group are approaching this team build. The instant gratification need is from the last regime, not this one. Our coaching staff/front office is in this for the long haul. They can afford to take a QB that may 'seem' to some a bit raw and feel like we have time to coach him. 

After rubber-stamping us with the latest QB of the week, these same media jackholes will turn to the pick after us and sagely nod to the Patriots about how wise THEY are in wanting Maye. That's last regime crap right there! That the media thinks it can talk us into submission with their charms and then, in front of our faces, turn to their next darling sports market in line, weather it's NE or NY and bestow the kudos about their SMART pick. And in the same breath, the media will say that if Maye is not an option, that NE will consider trade offers. Hahahaha!

The arrogance of this constantly chirping sports punditry is breathtaking. And for Keim to apparently legitimize or validate some of these 'really good offensive minds' is gonna come back and bite him in the ass if we really do pick Maye. To the infamy of his name. Just my 2 cents.

 

[BMagic]

6 minutes ago, Dah-Dee said:

 

"Don't just look at the throws but look at an entire game. And then you'll really have an assessment about 'Did you scramble to remain a passer? Did you know sometimes a throw away was the best decision right here?' It wouldn't show that on the stat sheet, but that was actually a really good decision. And so those are the things that I've been digging in on."

 

 

That right there is the improvisation trait that's rare and the best guys in the league have it. The pick should be as clear as day if that's an accurate indicator of what Peters/Shen/Kingsbury and the scouts are looking for along with Quinn.

[moondog]

I think the biggest thing that bugs me is still mariota. The biggest upside to him is that absolutely no one, fan or player, will be looking for him to come in if a rookie struggles. The biggest downside is that if he has to play due to injury or because a rookie isn’t quite ready, everyone knows he sucks and there will be more pressure to get the rookie in even if he’s not quite ready. 
 

I know Brissett wanted to leave even if he was the best option, it doesn’t seem like that was on the table because he didn’t want to be here. But I would have much preferred Minshew or Flacco as veteran mentors but also guys that I would feel totally comfortable playing with and still having offensive production with. I just have zero faith in Mariota as a player or the personality type to lead the team or a young quarterback. I think he is sincere but also lacks any juice personality wise or on the field. 

[cakmoney61]

12 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Nobody is arguing otherwise. But by that logic you should never draft a QB because there is always a chance they can bust.

 

Just like...every single other position.

Of course, they have to draft a QB.  All I'm saying is their negatives are outweighing their positives, so my optimism that Washington will draft that dude is low because that dude may not even be available.  And we won't know that until some time in the future long after they made their pick.  But all this intense negativity about Maye and Daniels erodes confidence.  Well...erodes "my" confidence.

[redskinss]

One thing is for sure, no matter who we draft we're going to have half the fanbase saying be patient every time they make a mistake and the other half losing their minds saying we should have taken the other guy.

There is a zero point zero percent chance this debate ends on April 25th.

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

7 minutes ago, cakmoney61 said:

Of course, they have to draft a QB.  All I'm saying is their negatives are outweighing their positives…

I’m not sure that’s true. We’re just more focused on the negatives.

[Llevron]

Just now, redskinss said:

One thing is for sure, no matter who we draft we're going to have half the fanbase saying be patient every time they make a mistake and the other half losing their minds saying we should have taken the other guy.

There is a zero point zero percent chance this debate ends on April 25th.

 

100% there are going to be people saying "I thought we got this guy cause he was pro ready??" or "Why did we draft a guy at 2 that needed to sit??" because people are stupid and biased and that's just how they work. Like always. But a lot of folks do rise above it. Gotta try not to give air to the people to make their biases so clear and make no attempt to get past them. 

[WashingtonRedWolves]

 

4 minutes ago, redskinss said:

One thing is for sure, no matter who we draft we're going to have half the fanbase saying be patient every time they make a mistake and the other half losing their minds saying we should have taken the other guy.

There is a zero point zero percent chance this debate ends on April 25th.

If we take Maye, yes. If we take Daniels, it'll be more like 80% losing their minds saying we should have taken Maye

[ntotoro]

1 minute ago, WashingtonRedWolves said:

 

If we take Maye, yes. If we take Daniels, it'll be more like 80% losing their minds saying we should have taken Maye

 

The forum seems pretty evenly split, unless you include the sock accounts created by Daniels' agent over the last few weeks.

[redskinss]

12 minutes ago, cakmoney61 said:

All I'm saying is their negatives are outweighing their positives

Only because we're picking second.

If we were picking 12th we'd be talking about these guys as if they were the second coming of christ and wishing Rivera had tanked last year while contemplating trading for Derek carr.

[mistertim]

18 minutes ago, cakmoney61 said:

Of course, they have to draft a QB.  All I'm saying is their negatives are outweighing their positives, so my optimism that Washington will draft that dude is low because that dude may not even be available.  And we won't know that until some time in the future long after they made their pick.  But all this intense negativity about Maye and Daniels erodes confidence.  Well...erodes "my" confidence.

 

No, they aren't. That's just a perception based on what you're reading here and other places at this point in the draft process and as a team that will be picking a QB at #2. There's always going to be more scrutiny about negatives in that situation. All of these top guys have massive positives, but the negatives will always be focused on in this specific circumstance. 

 

This is a top notch QB class. Any of the top 3 would almost certainly be the #1 overall pick in most drafts.

[skinny21]

59 minutes ago, cakmoney61 said:

I appreciate you talking so positively about the draft class, but i have heard (and read) much more negative rhetoric than positive.  Am I wrong.

I think there’s an element of 1) the cyclical nature of qb evaluation - it starts mostly positive when the college season ends, then analysts delve deep into the negatives as the draft gets closer, and 2) having 3 (or 4 if you wanna include McCarthy) guys bunched closely together at the top - there’s a lot of nitpicking going on to parse them, and 3) related to both of the above points, many have landed on their preference and subsequently spend time tearing down the other prospects to make “their guy” look better.

 

General consensus (as I’m sure you know, but it bears repeating given your concerns), is that even with so much negativity going around, this is a really good class, particularly the top prospects.  Of course there are some outliers claiming one or more of these top guys aren’t 1st rounders (or worse).  And you’re right (in your other post) that it’s a roll of the dice to an extent.  

 

Going off (faulty) memory, hit rate is something like 60% where we’re drafting.  If we factor in that most believe Daniels and Maye would be the 1st qb taken in many recent drafts, seems like we’ve got a better than 60% chance of getting this right.  Doesn’t hurt that we (may) finally have a staff in place that can develop/support a young qb.

[DogofWar1]

15 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Nobody is arguing otherwise. But by that logic you should never draft a QB because there is always a chance they can bust.

 

Just like...every single other position.

 

I AM arguing otherwise.

 

Approx 7/22 QBs picked in the top 10 from 2010 to 2020 were elite and 7/22 were still good starters (at least for a time).

 

8/22 were legit busts.  So as long as you don't herp derp the eval and pick a guy deserving of the top 10 you'll hit more than you miss (and I think Caleb, Maye, and Daniels are def deserving of that.  Maybe even McCarthy).

[cakmoney61]

2 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

No, they aren't. That's just a perception based on what you're reading here and other places at this point in the draft process and as a team that will be picking a QB at #2. There's always going to be more scrutiny about negatives in that situation. All of these top guys have massive positives, but the negatives will always be focused on in this specific circumstance. 

 

This is a top notch QB class. Any of the top 3 would almost certainly be the #1 overall pick in most drafts.

I didn't say that's the reality.  I'm saying all people tend to talk about are their negatives.  I'd rather hear more things "for" a particular QB instead of more things "against" the other QB.  As a fan, I want to "believe" that we are choosing between great and greater.  But that's not the vibe I'm getting.  

[SkinsFTW]

1 hour ago, Est.1974 said:

I don’t want to give a QB a 25mil signing bonus within a fully guaranteed deal of 40mil to then sit for a year. 
 

That has to be considered a massive risk.

 

You pick a player at #2 that will start week 1.
 

 

 

The last draft that I remember where the 3 top QBs didn't start right away was when Eli, Rivers, and Roth, all didn't start for a while and they all might get into the HOF.

 

Carson Palmer sat an entire year, Rodgers sat 3, Mahomes sat 15/16 of a season, Cousins sat 15/16 of year 1 and clearly turned out better than the #2 overall pick.

 

I can't even remember guys who sat and sucked. I knew that Love was going to be garbage if they started him but he sits for years then comes in and by the playoffs looks like an MVP. Much better than the actual MVP did in the playoffs in fact.

[mistertim]

2 minutes ago, cakmoney61 said:

I didn't say that's the reality.  I'm saying all people tend to talk about are their negatives.  I'd rather hear more things "for" a particular QB instead of more things "against" the other QB.  As a fan, I want to "believe" that we are choosing between great and greater.  But that's not the vibe I'm getting.  

 

You're on a football message board with one group of people debating with another that their guy is the guy. Of course you're going to see more negatives in that situation. 

Edited April 5 by mistertim

[Llevron]

I read that entire P2S% breakdown and it comes off as an really out of context statistical oddity more than anything. I mean.... measure of 'success' is arbitrary as **** imo. 

 

Quote

There’s a multitude of ways we can choose to decide whether or not a player was a hit or miss, but for the sake of keeping it simple, I’m identifying a hit as a player who signed (or is expected to sign) a long-term second contract with the team that drafted them. In simpler terms, I’m looking for the kind of second contract we’d expect a team to give a franchise quarterback.

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/fantasy/football/news/pressure-to-sack-rate-what-is-it-and-how-can-it-be-applied

 

What? How is that even useful? Can someone give me additional context that is missing from that read? I get that touted as constant. But I don't get how its not seen as just additional info. I feel like im missing something that is obvious to everyone else.