The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[The Consigliere]

10 hours ago, ThatNFLChick said:

 

I feel like this team does not have a clear #1 and it really needs one. Since this draft is so WR heavy, why not? Especially when we're likely losing Curis Samuel (who became our most reliable down the stretch). Get a 1, make Terry the 2 and move Dotson to the slot. 

 

I also think we need another RB to go with Robinson and Rodriguez (I am assuming Gibson will be gone). Maybe we can grab a speedster in FA rather than drafting. 

I'd consider a WR with a 2nd if one falls that I like. Probably doesn't, I have them tiered out for my dynasty drafting lol, but I don't know where the NFL expects them to go. 

 

For me:

Tier 1:

MHJR

Nabers

 

Tier 2:

Rome Odunze

 

Tier 3:

Troy Franklin

Brian Thomas Jr

Keon Coleman

Xavier Worthy

Adonai Mitchell

 

I need to do more research for the rest. If any tier 3 guys are sitting there around our 40th overall, I'd consider them heavily, but otherwise, I'd probably dart throw later. 

 

RB depends upon how cheap and crappy we can give a contract out. There are tons of RB's I like that are cheap and easy to get, but I want to avoid guys 26 or older because of the age cliff and absolutely cannot cosign on acquiring guys via expensive 2nd contracts. Swift and Dobbins are the most upside options available that might not cost too much, especially with Dobbins getting hurt and Swift tailing off. But I don't think they'd be interested in a 2 year 8 mill deal. If they are, I'd sign them as starters (like both a lot more than Robinson, though he was as efficient as all get out last year). There are some interesting RB's I'd dart throw this year. The perfect target, depending upon where he'd fall is Jonathan Brooks, best RB in the class, but he tore his ACL in November. We don't really need him yet anyway, so the ACL, if he's recovering is fine. After him I'm not super high on anyone for now. Cheapest RBs with hidden talent: probably Marlon Mack and Penny. 

 

It's pretty ----. For me, that's fine. We don't need a RB yet, if we get the build right, and hit on it, we'll want to start running that rb age clock beginning in '25 or '26. Not earlier. 

[skinsmania123]

1 hour ago, Thinking Skins said:

I think you misread my post. I was saying he disliked Maye. That was all I was saying about him. The rest is my thoughts. I have thoughts about this draft class because I like all of the top 3 guys but I'm not in love with any of them. I honestly think I want Daniels above top because of his work ethic and how much he improved at LSU and the fact that he played at LSU, compared to the PAC12 with no defense and the ACC. I've got nothing against Maye and Williams (and really Daniels) but I'm just not IN LOVE with any of them. That's why I'm constantly telling my friends and family that this year's class makes me feel like 2011. I wonder what Peters feels though because he is the one that matters though. I'm a nobody with an opinion.. 

. What I like about Daniel's is how well and accurately he throws the ball.  And I think in the NFL today you need a dual-threat QB. I enjoy as a fan so much when a QB can place the ball accurately, particularly the long ball. I have read a lot about this guy, and I like his character and grit.  He is a pretty happy guy who IMO has had to overcome a lot of loss in his personal life. 

 

And I am impressed that he adjusted his conditioning to put on some muscle and he just seems to work very hard at his craft.  Maybe I am wrong, but these are the kind of guys that are coachable. I also like Maye but not as much as Daniels. 

[Skinsinparadise]

23 minutes ago, OtisDriftwood25 said:

I’d be interested to look up his previous years. People really liked Zach Wilson, Mac Jones, Justin Fields and more. If he has a good track record I could get on board.

 

Everyone who does enough takes on QBs will have some big misses.  I don't recall Nick going back.  

 

But in short, I go with my own take.  But then pay attention to other takes especially leaks from scouts and on that front this class is hyped and more so than the typical QB class.

 

 

 

[The Consigliere]

5 hours ago, Renegade7 said:

 

Because this isn't Madden and we can't fix everything in one offseason.

 

I respect this need, I don't believe we're being realistic trying to address it this offseason unless we do it via free agency.

 

If our 1st pick is QB, saying the next one has to be WR should be considered jus as much drafting for need as saying it has to be a specific oline position.

 

Maybe I'm overthinking this, but this insistence on getting a true #1 this offseason jus feels so cart before the horse I can't process it same as some of the rest of yall.

Its not what I'm saying, even a little. I'm saying this class is really good, especially through probably pick 30-45. So it's an option. 

 

We should use our 2 top 40ish picks after slot 2 on the best talent on our board that plays OT, OG, WR, DB, LB. Whomever is the best talent available, get them, I think we can pass on DT, Edge, QB (since we took one in round 1), RB (god awful class). 

 

Again, you're definitely misreading me. I like the WR class. That's all I mean. I'd be happiest if one of the last of the top tier OL's, is available, and we just take them. I'd be happy taking an elite DB if one falls, even an LB at 40 (but not before). I'd also be happy to grab a WR if one of my favs is still there at 40. But there's no reason we have too, at all. We have adequate cover for '24 at the position. It really depends upon how the board falls. 

5 hours ago, Coopskin44 said:

          We have 1 offensive linemen a guard that’s it.You don’t win in this league without a good offensive line.This position needs to be addressed before WR.

Stromberg was a top prospect as an interior lineman last draft. So you need to think of him basically as a third round pick interior OL with a quality grade being added this offseason. i don't think we need to go WR ahead of OL, I'd be happiest at pick 36, just selecting the best OL on the board, but if the cupboards bare, in terms of guys worthy of selection, it's bare. Then you have to go another direction or trade up as the guys are being peeled off. It depends. 

 

It's also worth noting, our biggest issues are at RT, and what, LG? We have LT cover for at least one more season (and they'll be gone before pick 36 anyway). So we need to build a metaphorical trade model if all the best interior lineman and offensive tackles worth a late first, early second are likely to be gone. Then consider it, if that's how the draft plays out. If the price is simply too high, take the best DB, LB, WR available. But I tend to think we'll find an OL we like at 36, or one we can acquire likely by trading up to the back of round 1. 

[The Consigliere]

1 hour ago, Warhead36 said:

Way way way too early for mocks.

But people still want to do them. You will have the combine, and pro day's and then they'll look reasonable. For now, it's basically silly beyond the pre-athletic test tiering. 

[The Consigliere]

42 minutes ago, OtisDriftwood25 said:

I’d be interested to look up his previous years. People really liked Zach Wilson, Mac Jones, Justin Fields and more. If he has a good track record I could get on board.

I'd be curious on Wilson. I don't know a single person in the dynasty community or analytics community that liked Wilson. I'm sure there's somebody though. I think people got Mac Jones right. High floor guy. He was, in year 1, and not the past two years. We don't know what he is, the same way we don't know Lance, but for different reasons-Mac has given contradictory performances season long, Lance kept getting hurt and looked raw but potentially exciting. Fields showed some growth in '22 throwing, and regression in '23. I think Fields is a great athlete at QB, and below average QB. I thought he'd be great. I don't see that anymore. 

[HTTRDynasty]

Pretty cool concept: career lowlights from the consensus top 3 QBs this year. 

 

Helpful for those that only watch these guys' highlights.  I wish the videos were much longer.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[FootballZombie]

1 minute ago, HTTRDynasty said:

Pretty cool concept: career lowlights from the consensus top 3 QBs this year. 

 

You monster lol.

 

Should I start hiding puppies before you punt them into orbit?

[HTTRDynasty]

3 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

 

You monster lol.

 

Should I start hiding puppies before you punt them into orbit?

 

Haha, I consider it my civic duty to present all sides - the good, the bad and the ugly.

[tmandoug1]

12 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

Pretty cool concept: career lowlights from the consensus top 3 QBs this year. 

 

Helpful for those that only watch these guys' highlights.  I wish the videos were much longer.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wow....Caleb W. Is tiny. 

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, tmandoug1 said:

Wow....Caleb W. Is tiny. 

He’s not tiny.

 

He’s 6-1. 
 

But he is small for a high end QB prospect.

[Idaho fan]

The more I read and watch the more I like Daniels.  To me he looks like a future franchise QB.  I worry about Maye's accuracy as that is one thing that is difficult to improve on as they transition from college to pro.  His accuracy is well below Willams and Daniels.  Williams could be great but just don't like the vibe I get.. that and his size.  

 

I originally figured Daniels would be bottom of the 1st or a 2nd day pick but Id be happy with him at 2.  

[Warhead36]

3 minutes ago, Idaho fan said:

The more I read and watch the more I like Daniels.  To me he looks like a future franchise QB.  I worry about Maye's accuracy as that is one thing that is difficult to improve on as they transition from college to pro.  His accuracy is well below Willams and Daniels.  Williams could be great but just don't like the vibe I get.. that and his size.  

 

I originally figured Daniels would be bottom of the 1st or a 2nd day pick but Id be happy with him at 2.  

Daniels was throwing to guys who are wide open. Two 1st round pick WRs. Maye had to consistently fit throws into tight windows because he doesn't have that same kind of supporting cast.

[KDawg]

2 minutes ago, Idaho fan said:

The more I read and watch the more I like Daniels.  To me he looks like a future franchise QB.  I worry about Maye's accuracy as that is one thing that is difficult to improve on as they transition from college to pro.  His accuracy is well below Willams and Daniels.  Williams could be great but just don't like the vibe I get.. that and his size.  

 

I originally figured Daniels would be bottom of the 1st or a 2nd day pick but Id be happy with him at 2.  

Daniels doesn’t make enough tight window throws for me to be comfortable with him at 2. He has great accuracy… when guys are wide open. I worry about contested passes in the NFL. A lot.

 

And the hits he takes. 

[Idaho fan]

3 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Daniels was throwing to guys who are wide open. Two 1st round pick WRs. Maye had to consistently fit throws into tight windows because he doesn't have that same kind of supporting cast.

Not saying you are wrong.  Its a good point.  Everyone also said the same thing about CJ Stroud.   Will be so interesting to see what Peters does.

[Renegade7]

48 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

Its not what I'm saying, even a little. I'm saying this class is really good, especially through probably pick 30-45. So it's an option. 

 

We should use our 2 top 40ish picks after slot 2 on the best talent on our board that plays OT, OG, WR, DB, LB. Whomever is the best talent available, get them, I think we can pass on DT, Edge, QB (since we took one in round 1), RB (god awful class). 

 

Again, you're definitely misreading me. I like the WR class. That's all I mean. I'd be happiest if one of the last of the top tier OL's, is available, and we just take them. I'd be happy taking an elite DB if one falls, even an LB at 40 (but not before). I'd also be happy to grab a WR if one of my favs is still there at 40. But there's no reason we have too, at all. We have adequate cover for '24 at the position. It really depends upon how the board falls. 

 

 

Misread you?

 

Bro, I didn't even quote you, I responded to someone else.

 

Relax : )

 

I find your concept of a hybrid BPA/Need approach where BPA is limited to a certain number of positions is reasonable.

Edited January 23 by Renegade7

[The Consigliere]

2 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

 

Misread you?

 

Bro, I didn't even quote you, I responded to someone else.

 

Relax : )

 

I find your concept of a hybrid BPA/Need approach where BPA is limited to a certain number of positions is reasonable.

Lol, okay, I am relaxed on this. I thought I was trying to relax you lol.

 

But yeah, that's how I see it. It's not a good edge draft, or DT draft from what I can tell and I don't really care anyway. We need help everywhere, so we can justify almost any direction really other than DT. I would just have our build built around cohorts, and considering we pick at 2, we don't have to worry about being stupid with value and wasting a 1st on an RB or an early 1st on an interior OL, or TE, or LB etc. By the time we pick again, all the cohorts are value except C and FB which nobody uses anymore anyway. 

 

So yep, for me, I HOPE, that one of the 2nds is used on an OL, I could use 2 if both are tiered in the zone, but I think the team can use DB help, LB help, OL help at any position other than maybe C (Stromberg should be considered the pick we already used for that, to me), WR, I should have included TE as well. We could dart throw DL help on day 3, but just a feeling that we never hit on day 3 DLs EVER so why waste the pick? But that's stupid impulsive thinking on my part and hell we kind of hit on Richie Redskins 20 years ago on the equivalent of day 3.

 

But yeah, if again, if its me, after our 2nd pick, I'd just have my spreadsheet and big board out:

 

with the positional cohorts: OL, WR, TE, DB, LB listed and tiered and start picking, while considering moving up if need be for OL, or down/out. 

[Thinking Skins]

39 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

OK some of them has monster stats.  So you are running the Parcells school of thought of wanting starts.  If so you should love Bo Nix he has plenty of starts with good stats.

 

Zach Wilson, Lance, Fields, Jones -- don't have the hype from scouts that Maye and Daniels have.   Apples to oranges.

Parcells definitely influenced my thinking. You don't get that now a days though. I'm not in love with Nix or Penix for other reasons.

 

But the thing is without film I have nothing to analyze. I'm a data scientist, I need data. Guys who have one year are ok but I have to wonder if he's a one year wonder or if he can do it again. The questions about Howell when he had the bad senior year are real. It doesn't mean that I can't like a guy who doesn't have this data, but I'm doing analytics so I can't do analytics based on them.

 

Fields had 2 years, which is becoming the normal so I guess I was higher on him. But now I might be mis remembering. I know I hated the resumes of Lance, and Jones. I can't remember what I thought about Wilson. 

[kingdaddy]

10 hours ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

If Lions beat San Fran; I can see Kirk there next year.  Purdy has already said they were looking for Tom Brady to be this year’s starter but that obviously didn’t happen.

I don't think so for this reason: cap hit. Purdy is still dirt cheap while signing KC will force hard roster decisions. I will say this though, if Purdy plays shaky they could bring in someone else who may not cost as much as KC? How bout someone like Brissett or even Flacco? Niners are veteran team who needs their SB this year or next, if they think Purdy is holding them back maybe they do go the veteran route? But I think KC will want to break the bank.....again. 

[HTTRDynasty]

29 minutes ago, Idaho fan said:

The more I read and watch the more I like Daniels.  To me he looks like a future franchise QB.  I worry about Maye's accuracy as that is one thing that is difficult to improve on as they transition from college to pro.  His accuracy is well below Willams and Daniels.  Williams could be great but just don't like the vibe I get.. that and his size.  

 

I originally figured Daniels would be bottom of the 1st or a 2nd day pick but Id be happy with him at 2.  

 

That's just not true.

 

Career Adjusted Completion Percentage:

• Williams - 76.0%
• Maye - 75.3%
• Daniels - 75.5%

 

Career Average Depth of Target:

• Williams -9.9 Yards
• Maye - 10.7 Yards
• Daniels - 9.1 Yards

 

[Thinking Skins]

27 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Daniels doesn’t make enough tight window throws for me to be comfortable with him at 2. He has great accuracy… when guys are wide open. I worry about contested passes in the NFL. A lot.

 

And the hits he takes. 

I agree with this to an extent, but it does show an ability that he was able to find the open guy and wasn't constantly forcing the ball say deep into a tight window when there was another guy he could have thrown to. I don't know if Terry will like this though cause Terry will like this because he doesn't get open. 

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, Thinking Skins said:

I agree with this to an extent, but it does show an ability that he was able to find the open guy and wasn't constantly forcing the ball say deep into a tight window when there was another guy he could have thrown to. I don't know if Terry will like this though cause Terry will like this because he doesn't get open. 

It’s hard not to see the open guy when they are running down field with 3-5 yards of separation.

[mistertim]

38 minutes ago, Idaho fan said:

The more I read and watch the more I like Daniels.  To me he looks like a future franchise QB.  I worry about Maye's accuracy as that is one thing that is difficult to improve on as they transition from college to pro.  His accuracy is well below Willams and Daniels.  Williams could be great but just don't like the vibe I get.. that and his size.  

 

I originally figured Daniels would be bottom of the 1st or a 2nd day pick but Id be happy with him at 2.  

 

I don't think Maye's accuracy is "well below" Williams and Daniels. As others have noted, Daniels was throwing to two 1st round WRs who were clowning DBs on the regular and either getting wide open or making circus catches...one of whom would likely be the first WR off the board in any year where MHJ wasn't also coming out. Williams is accurate but he also does make some absolutely head scratching decisions at times (usually when trying to play hero ball and he gets himself into trouble).

 

When it comes to Maye he also has a bit of the hero ball gene, but not to the same extent as Wilson. From what I've seen his Maye's cutups, a fair amount of his inaccurate passes have some relationship to his footwork getting sloppy and not being consistent, which can cause passes to sail. He'll often try to do superman throws off his back foot or without any base, and it will occasionally work because he has a cannon, but he isn't Mahomes, so it also often gets him in trouble as his lower body mechanics isn't connected to his upper body throwing motion.

 

I do like Daniels in general and think he's an interesting prospect but certain things about him make him, for me, a distant 3rd behind Williams and Maye (part of that being his swizzle stick frame and the way he throws his body around like he has a spare one in the closet at home).

Edited January 23 by mistertim

[ThatNFLChick]

5 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

That's just not true.

 

Career Adjusted Completion Percentage:

• Williams - 76.0%
• Maye - 75.3%
• Daniels - 75.5%

 

Career Average Depth of Target:

• Williams -9.9 Yards
• Maye - 10.7 Yards
• Daniels - 9.1 Yards

 

 

The fact that Daniels is this close including his years at ASU is nuts. That's pretty consistent since we are comparing 2 years for Williams and Maye to 4 for Daniels (which seems to underscore that even without Thomas and Nabers he was pretty accurate)

Edited January 23 by ThatNFLChick

[The Consigliere]

9 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

Parcells definitely influenced my thinking. You don't get that now a days though. I'm not in love with Nix or Penix for other reasons.

 

But the thing is without film I have nothing to analyze. I'm a data scientist, I need data. Guys who have one year are ok but I have to wonder if he's a one year wonder or if he can do it again. The questions about Howell when he had the bad senior year are real. It doesn't mean that I can't like a guy who doesn't have this data, but I'm doing analytics so I can't do analytics based on them.

 

Fields had 2 years, which is becoming the normal so I guess I was higher on him. But now I might be mis remembering. I know I hated the resumes of Lance, and Jones. I can't remember what I thought about Wilson. 

You probably hated Wilson. pretty much everyone did. He had only very specific fans. 

 

I had that class:

Tier 1:

1A: Lawrence

1B: Fields

 

Tier 2:

None

 

Tier 3:

3. Lance

 

Tier 4:

Mac Jones

 

Do Not Draft: Z. Wilson

 

It's pretty helpful to look at my superflex/2QB leagues, and it's easy to see what I was thinking. I have a couple Lawrence shares, a lot of Fields, a couple of Lance, zero Mac Jones, and I picked up one share of Z. Wilson in a 2QB RSO Contract League to flip (super cheap rookie salary because everyone hated him lol, whereas Lance, lawrence and Fields all went at the top of the rookie draft, Mac went late first, and Zach was always available until the 1st/2nd turn. The only reason I took him was he was still available in the mid 2nd, at a 1 mill per year 4 year+rookie option deal when veteran starters like say Cousins or Dak would be on 20-30 mill per year deals. So it was pretty simple, if he hit, at all, he'd be easy to flip because of his contract, and if he missed, whatever, it was a mid 2nd rounder, no huge loss in a 3 round rookie draft. Of course he missed badly, but I already had QB depth so it didnt matter, then the commish switched from a guy I liked in '21, to a guy I was neutral on in '22, to a guy I loathed in '23, so I quit the league anyway last year. 

 

But suffice it to say, I always thought that class was pretty clear:

 

Lawrence was the mega talent

 

Fields was the upside/solid floor guy with the chance to be elite.

 

Lance was the high floor, low ceiling, pray for Lamar pick. 

 

Mac was the competency floor pick.

 

Zach Wilson was the WT# some people are enamored, but not many pick. 

 

I never saw Fields floor as low as it became, i thought at worst he'd be average. But the way things played out with Lance doesn't surprise me, even though I liked him (just a bit rich that high in the real draft considering the incredibly low floor and high chance he just might bust entirely), nor with Wilson, I just thought he was complete b.s., a very Jets stupid as hell pick, and I think nearly everyone agreed and wondered what the hell the jets were doing. At least trade down for him etc. Mac was supposed to be a floor pick whod give you like 15th-22nd caliber QB play, with a slight chance of 10th-15th. He did the high end in '21, but in '22 and '23 he was a disaster. Was it the OC? Was it Mac? Was it the team with zero weapons worth a damn? Probably a little bit all of the above.