The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Renegade7]

1 hour ago, Ball Security said:

Heinicke started three times against Dallas?  I must be missing one.  Twice in 2021.  What was the other one?

 

Misread something and edited my post, here's where my math is coming from:

 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HeinTa00/gamelog/

 

[Jericho]

I see its jump to conclusions time on a QB playing one mediocre game in Week 18. I'm 99% sure Howell isn't the solution here, but I know Wentz and Heinicke certainly are not. So I get the idea of hoping and praying on the unknown. And if you have a guy, him being able to scramble some is golden in this league. So that's a start.

 

The inherent problem is what to do for 2023? Howell as plan A seems like a recipe for disaster. Unless he's magically the next Tom Brady, you're probably looking at a season like Chicago or Houston had this year. And you're not likely getting even fringe starter types to sign as a free agent back-ups if you're not giving them a legit shot at playing time. On the other hand, the trade and free agent markets are littered with non-answers and fool's gold. Those type of moves rarely pan out. So it's not like there are good alternatives. The only other option is the draft, though playing into the middle of the first round doesn't help the chances to get a top guy. Odds are bona fide first round talents are off the board by then. So that leaves three viable options: (1) trade up in the draft; (2) sign some mediocre stop gap guy; or (3) roll with Howell. All are probably likely to fail, but at least Howell is a fairly cheap option and doesn't mortgage the future. And hey, you never know. Maybe Washington might actually get super lucky for once.

[Renegade7]

@Jericho what has you so skeptical of Sam based on todays performance?

 

i agree its a risk going in with him sloted for QB1, but comparing him to QB situation in Chicago and Houston, this wasn't even a great game from him and he still looked better then the QBs we saw when we beat both those teams this year.

 

Think that's what it boils down to for me, the lack of need for Howell to be Brady or some miracle...we didn't have a QB this year, Wentz and Taylor took turns making the case not to be QB1 for a youth sports program.  The bar is slow low yet we keep hovering right around jus out the playoffs anyway.

 

He doesn't need to be great to be great for us, folks saying to temper expectations he might be are missing the point here of what he potentially brings to the table (especially being on a rookie, non 1st round contract).

Edited January 9, 2023 by Renegade7

[NFC Beast1987]

I mean I'm a massive UNC fan and would say this no matter what but.... I told you guys... Howell is going to be a really good QB in the NFL.. His work ethic and calm demeaner are perfect for growing in the NFL and he's a gamer that loves his teammates and wants to win.

[Jericho]

7 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

@Jericho what has you so skeptical of Sam based on todays performance?

 

i agree its a risk going in with him sloted for QB1, but comparing him to QB situation in Chicago and Houston, this wasn't even a great game from him and he still looked better then the QBs we saw when we bear both those teams this year.

 

Think that's what it boils down to for me, the lack of need for Howell to be Brady or some miracle...we didn't have a QB this year, Wentz and Taylor took turns making the case not to be QB1 for a youth sports program.  The bar is slow low yet we keep hovering right around jus out the playoffs anyway.

 

He doesn't need to be great to be great for us, folks saying to temper expectations he might be are missing the point here of what he potentially brings to the table (especially being on a rookie, non 1st round contract).

 

Let's start with the fact it's literally impossible to know much about any NFL QB after one game. Effectively, this one game is pretty worthless on its own. Let's add on the fact that Howell wasn't that good. 11 completions, 169 yards, 1 interception. That's a Heinicke line. Yeah, I get the degree of difficulty for Howell was high coming in. And certainly Howell wasn't terrible, but as I mentioned before he wasn't great either. And then there's the fact he's a 5th round pick. 75% of the league's starts are first rounder or former first rounders. And the few exceptions to that rule typically snatch the starting job fairly early in their careers. The mere fact you had years of college tape and the entire NFL passed on him for 4 rouns and that fact Howell was stuck for an entire year on the bench behind Wentz and Heinicke is somewhat telling too. The odds that Howell is a bona fide starting QB in this league are so low than it's basically a rounding error from zero. I can't literally say it won't happen, but the odds are what, 1 in 500 at this point? It's not a realistic expectation, even though its not an impossible outcome. If people want to talk themselves into Howell, so be it. I saw people try to talk themselves into Davis Mills last year. Or that Matt Ryan wasn't washed. Or that Marcus Mariota or Jameis Winston are real NFL starters. Is typically the same song and dance every year, people try to fool themselves into non-answers and extreme longshots.

[Renegade7]

@Jericho

 

His first pass was a touchdown, and he also ran for one.  Leaving those out your stat line makes your whole post and case suspect.

 

There's skepticism then there's whatever you pushin...

Edited January 9, 2023 by Renegade7

[SonnySideUp]

I thought Sam looked really good in his pre-season game and by most reports has looked very strong in practices all season as well. Also, in spite of what I thought was terrible playcalling by Turner in the Dallas game he looked sharp for someone playing in let alone starting as QB his first in season game. His first pass being a touchdown reminded me of Clinton Portis' first play as a Commanderskin. It was the first play of the game and he ran from scrimmage to end zone for a TD. He later said that Joe Gibbs told him after the play "Clinton, that was perfect!"

 

So what if he had an interception? He threw for a TD, also ran for a TD and was quite mobile. He also threw some nice long balls. I think he would have looked even sharper if Turner had called plays that made better use of his skills.

 

We're right back in the QB hell we always seem to be in and Sam is the only bright spot we have at the moment. I think we have to work like heck over the offseason to develop him into the starter. We still will need to draft another QB though if we can do so without spending all the draft picks we need for other positions. I think we might even bring TH back as back-up QB if we can get him cheaply enough. He has a great attitude, wants to be here, the team responds well to him and he is likely no worse than others in his price range. I don't know how he'd do if we have a different OC though.

 

The point is, if you don't make him the starter, the alternatives are not plentiful or attractive as I will show below. The FA list for QB's is thin again in terms of quality this year and the draft is only a few months away. As of week 17, the NFL reportedly had 64 different QB starts for the year. That speaks to QB performance (and lack thereof) and durability (and lack thereof). There's going to be a lot of teams chasing better, healthier, younger, QB's and will be willing to spend a lot of money and/or draft picks to get them. Sam is already here, signed to a rookie deal and we have a least a small picture of what kind of QB he is. And..that picture is not at all a bad one, quite the opposite. He looks pretty darned good so far.

 

So we keep him for a year as the starter. Could he be worse than Haskins, Kyle Allen, Wentz, Fitz or TH turned out to be? We can already pretty much tell that he's better than TH and TH was at least serviceable. If you don't think Sam is the solution, who do you think is? Giving up the store for enough picks for a marque QB in the draft? Or take a look at the list of QB FA's below and see who on that list would be a better solution than making Sam the guy. Darnold? Jones? JG? Brissett? Mayfield? How many Wentz II's are on that list. Oh, and I hear that Cam Newton is still available.  

 

I agree with those who don't trust the current coaching staff to handle this situation properly this offseason (including trusting Turner to utilize the starter properly if he returns next season). I thought his playcalling against Dallas was terrible, as usual. I am hoping that we will have a new OC next season at a minimum but don't know how realistic that hope is. If the coaching staff stays the same, then I say Sam is QB1, keep TH as backup (if not too expensive) and draft a QB. Hopefully, by 2024 we have a totally new owner, FO and coaching staff. 

 

Here's the list of QB's who will be FA's 2023. Who on this list do you think is either REALLY worth going after as a starter or that we'd have a chance at in lieu of using Sam at that position? At least we didn't get suckered into shooting a wad of cash at flameout Russell Wilson like Denver did (and we almost certainly tried to do). Jackson is the only one on that list i think is worthy of going after as a starter and the Ravens aren't likely to let him even get close to the FA market. JG would be in some sort of cast by game four. 

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/49ers/which-quarterbacks-make-top-nfl-free-agents-2023

 

 

Here’s a list of all 37 ranked by their 2022 average annual value, via Spotrac: 

 

• Tom Brady (45), Tampa Bay Buccaneers: $15 million – UFA
• Baker Mayfield (27), Los Angeles Rams: $8.1 million – UFA
• Sam Darnold (25), Carolina Panthers: $7.5 million – UFA
• Jimmy Garoppolo (31), San Francisco 49ers: $7 million – UFA
• Teddy Bridgewater (30), Miami Dolphins: $6.5 million – UFA
• Daniel Jones (25), New York Giants: $6.4 million – UFA
• Case Keenum (34), Buffalo Bills: $6 million – UFA
• Mason Rudolph (27), Pittsburgh Steelers: $5.08 million – UFA
• Jacoby Brissett (30), Cleveland Browns: $4.6 million – UFA
• Geno Smith (32), Seattle Seahawks: $3.5 million – UFA
• Joe Flacco (37), New York Jets: $3.5 million – UFA
• Andy Dalton (35), New Orleans Saints: $3 million – UFA
• Mike White (27), New York Jets: $2.5 million – UFA
• C.J. Beathard (29), Jacksonville Jaguars: $2.5 million – UFA
• Kyle Allen (26), Houston Texans: $2.5 million – UFA
• Taylor Heinicke (29), Washington Commanders: $2.3 million – UFA
• Lamar Jackson (25), Baltimore Ravens: $2.3 million – UFA
• Blaine Gabbert (33), Tampa Bay Buccaneers: $2.2 million – UFA
• Chase Daniel (36), Los Angeles Chargers: $2 million – UFA
• Chad Henne (37), Kansas City Chiefs: $2 million – UFA
• Nick Mullens (27), Minnesota Vikings: $2 million – UFA
• Drew Lock (26), Seattle Seahawks: $1.7 million – UFA
• Brandon Allen (30), Cincinnati Bengals: $1.5 million – UFA
• Josh Johnson (36), San Francisco 49ers: $1.1 million – UFA
• Nate Sudfeld (29), Detroit Lions: $1.03 million – UFA
• Nathan Peterman (28), Chicago Bears: $1.03 million – UFA
• Cooper Rush (29), Dallas Cowboys: $977,500 – UFA
• Brett Rypien (26), Denver Broncos: $965,000 – UFA
• Tyler Huntley (24), Baltimore Ravens: $895,000 – RFA
• John Wolford (27), Los Angeles Rams: $895,000 – RFA
• Phillip Walker (27), Carolina Panthers: $895,000 – RFA
• Trace McSorley (27), Arizona Cardinals: $850,000 – UFA
• Jarrett Stidham (26), Las Vegas Raiders: $788,423 – UFA
• Bryce Perkins (25), Los Angeles Rams: $742,500 – ERFA
• Easton Stick (27), Los Angeles Chargers: $699,391 – UFA
• Gardner Minshew (26), Philadelphia Eagles: $677,721 – UFA
• Shane Buechele (24), Kansas City Chiefs: $660,000 – ERFA

Edited January 9, 2023 by SonnySideUp

[Thinking Skins]

8 hours ago, zCommander said:

 

Absolutely. I have been pinning for our own franchise guy, like for ever and I only saw Taylor as a stop gap for this year anyway. Is Howell it? I don't know. I sure hope he is though.

 

This is exciting because he has all the skills, didn't throw up on himself, actually executed some very good drives but it would be better if he finished. So if you look at young QBs we have a mobile guy who can throw a deep ball and for at least one game had shown that he could get it to the playmakers. 

 

There are several questions but right now he's above guys like Love

I'd maybe put him above Fields. Fields is a better runner but his decision making and ability to run an offense through his arm is still a question.

Definitely above Wilson.

Ridder may be about at the same level.

I'd put him above Lance because Lance has shown me nothing.

I think Mills has shown more and may be ahead of him still.

I'd put him above Willis

And I think he's behind Pickett.

Corral is a question mark because of how little he's played. 

 

He's definitely behind Lawrence and Mac Jones and even maybe Zeppe. 

8 hours ago, redskinss said:

If all our coaches are retained I could see heinicke back here as a backup, not that I want it to happen but I could see it happening. 

If he doesn't sign with us I could also see him out of the league completely. 

Who's going to want to bring in a 30 year old noodle armed quarterback who doesn't use his legs and teach him a completely new system?

Wouldn't you rather bring in a young guy with tools and potential?

 

 

 

 I think Dan will try to minimize expenses on his way out, so I can see us bringing everybody back including Turner. And I'm not mad about it. I think Turner has a long way to go but I am cautious about giving a young QB too many systems to learn early. 

Edited January 9, 2023 by Thinking Skins

[skinzplay]

Hopefully Zampese stays in some capacity to continue the tutelage of Howell. There is no way on Earth we leave this kid's future in the hands of Turner. Just no way. 

[Professor_Nutter_Butter]

5 hours ago, Jericho said:

 

Let's start with the fact it's literally impossible to know much about any NFL QB after one game. Effectively, this one game is pretty worthless on its own. Let's add on the fact that Howell wasn't that good. 11 completions, 169 yards, 1 interception. That's a Heinicke line. Yeah, I get the degree of difficulty for Howell was high coming in. And certainly Howell wasn't terrible, but as I mentioned before he wasn't great either. And then there's the fact he's a 5th round pick. 75% of the league's starts are first rounder or former first rounders. And the few exceptions to that rule typically snatch the starting job fairly early in their careers. The mere fact you had years of college tape and the entire NFL passed on him for 4 rouns and that fact Howell was stuck for an entire year on the bench behind Wentz and Heinicke is somewhat telling too. The odds that Howell is a bona fide starting QB in this league are so low than it's basically a rounding error from zero. I can't literally say it won't happen, but the odds are what, 1 in 500 at this point? It's not a realistic expectation, even though its not an impossible outcome. If people want to talk themselves into Howell, so be it. I saw people try to talk themselves into Davis Mills last year. Or that Matt Ryan wasn't washed. Or that Marcus Mariota or Jameis Winston are real NFL starters. Is typically the same song and dance every year, people try to fool themselves into non-answers and extreme longshots.

[benskins26]

5 hours ago, Jericho said:

 

Let's start with the fact it's literally impossible to know much about any NFL QB after one game. Effectively, this one game is pretty worthless on its own. Let's add on the fact that Howell wasn't that good. 11 completions, 169 yards, 1 interception. That's a Heinicke line. Yeah, I get the degree of difficulty for Howell was high coming in. And certainly Howell wasn't terrible, but as I mentioned before he wasn't great either. And then there's the fact he's a 5th round pick. 75% of the league's starts are first rounder or former first rounders. And the few exceptions to that rule typically snatch the starting job fairly early in their careers. The mere fact you had years of college tape and the entire NFL passed on him for 4 rouns and that fact Howell was stuck for an entire year on the bench behind Wentz and Heinicke is somewhat telling too. The odds that Howell is a bona fide starting QB in this league are so low than it's basically a rounding error from zero. I can't literally say it won't happen, but the odds are what, 1 in 500 at this point? It's not a realistic expectation, even though its not an impossible outcome. If people want to talk themselves into Howell, so be it. I saw people try to talk themselves into Davis Mills last year. Or that Matt Ryan wasn't washed. Or that Marcus Mariota or Jameis Winston are real NFL starters. Is typically the same song and dance every year, people try to fool themselves into non-answers and extreme longshots.

Did you actually watch the game? Because you’re using his stat line which if you didn’t watch the game “isn’t that good” on paper. And then you’re backing it up with an argument of likelihood and chance. It’s fine to say he may not be the guy, but to say 99% sure he isn’t but with no real reasoning why just makes it sound like you don’t want him to be the guy. 

Edited January 9, 2023 by benskins26

[DazedSkinsfan]

I'll also add that Dallas has a VERY good defense, plus our o-line being so terrible you can't help but being excited about this kids potential. I'm not saying he's a HOF yet but considering the circumstances for his first game, he showed some great potential. Let's see how much more he can improve in the off season. 

 

 

[dyst]

We finally ran slant passes. I feel like we never run those and he hit them in stride.

[KDawg]

19 minutes ago, benskins26 said:

Did you actually watch the game?  

 

This was my thought as well. 

[Chris 44]

27 minutes ago, dyst said:

We finally ran slant passes. I feel like we never run those and he hit them in stride.

This is what I noticed, receivers were not slowing and reaching back for the ball and actually had a chance for YAC.

[Koolblue13]

I'm all in on Howell for next season. Sign a clear back up vet and draft a day 3 rookie. 

 

Turner and his run, run, pass offensive play calling clearly was tipping the hand to the cowboys and allowing them to sell out.

 

As soon as we started passing on 1rst and second, offense started to take off and run.

[Darrell Green Fan]

1 hour ago, benskins26 said:

Did you actually watch the game? Because you’re using his stat line which if you didn’t watch the game “isn’t that good” on paper. And then you’re backing it up with an argument of likelihood and chance. It’s fine to say he may not be the guy, but to say 99% sure he isn’t but with no real reasoning why just makes it sound like you don’t want him to be the guy. 

I think we all watched the game.  Howell did some good things but did you see anything that got you really excited?  Given the hit rate of 5th round QBs I think 99% is not that unreasonable.  

[KDawg]

Just now, Darrell Green Fan said:

I think we all watched the game.  Howell did some good things but did you see anything that got you really excited?  Given the hit rate of 5th round QBs I think 99% is not that unreasonable.  

Yes, I saw a bunch. His ability to escape the pocket, eyes downfield but tuck and go. His vision as a rusher. His touch and arm on deep balls. His zip on slants. His composure against one of the best pass rush defenses in the NFL.

 

He had one bad throw where he threw off his back foot and into triple coverage. It was a really bad decision and pass.

 

But otherwise he looked like a vet.

[CjSuAvE22]

It’s time we roll with a cheap 5th round draft pick in a season fellas, let’s wait for a qb to fall to us, we dont need to make an offseason splash if we go 4-13 that’s fine at least we didn’t trade draft capital only to be 8-8 and we will have a chance at picking a qb high in 2024, Howell played a decent game, he’s a rookie with upside potential imo just take a deep breath and accept the fact that we don’t need to panic button a qb

Edited January 9, 2023 by CjSuAvE22

[Riggo#44]

I think the one pass I was really impressed with, that we haven't seen all year, really was the 9 yrd come back route to Dotson. Ball was out and on time and on Dotson by the time he came out of his break. While minor in the grand scheme of things it was a perfectly executed play. I'm trying to temper my excitement for Howell, he definitely looked the part and didn't go full John Beck.

[KDawg]

Just now, Riggo#44 said:

I think the one pass I was really impressed with, that we haven't seen all year, really was the 9 yrd come back route to Dotson. Ball was out and on time and on Dotson by the time he came out of his break. While minor in the grand scheme of things it was a perfectly executed play. I'm trying to temper my excitement for Howell, he definitely looked the part and didn't go full John Beck.

 

But.... he's a fifth rounder. He can't be a good QB.

[EmirOfShmo]

Outside of the INT, I think his worst play was the 3rd down incomplete pass to Terry. Williams was split wide left & DAL defense was slow to get someone over to cover him. Howell didn't see it pre-snap & then zeroed in on Terry. There were at least 2 people open to the left (I forget who - one I think was Thomas) but Williams was probably open as well. Howell made up his mind pre-snap he was going to Terry & the pass was incomplete.

[Chump Bailey]

7 hours ago, Jericho said:

I see its jump to conclusions time on a QB playing one mediocre game in Week 18. I'm 99% sure Howell isn't the solution here,

 

  

 

I saw plenty to be encouraged. I doubt Sam will be handed anything. He knows he will have to compete and earn the job.

 

 

[Chris 44]

10 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

But.... he's a fifth rounder. He can't be a good QB.

He was 11-19. Like to find a breakdown somewhere of each pass. 

 

The only 3 I recall being particularly bad were the interception, a high pass in the flat (I think perhaps Rogers that he was able to bring down but resulted in a loss of yards). One worm ball but I dont recall to who.

Outside of that I dont recall any others that I would call bad passes or decisions.  I think he had a couple of throws into the stands. 2 drops (though Dotsons bomb would have been a good catch. Out of 8 incompletions that dosnt leave too many others, 4 that I dont recall. TM at the goal line that looked like PI.

 

KDAWG,  sounds like I am rebutting you in first sentence, not meant that way.

Edited January 9, 2023 by Chris 44

[CjSuAvE22]

3 minutes ago, EmirOfShmo said:

Outside of the INT, I think his worst play was the 3rd down incomplete pass to Terry. Williams was split wide left & DAL defense was slow to get someone over to cover him. Howell didn't see it pre-snap & then zeroed in on Terry. There were at least 2 people open to the left (I forget who - one I think was Thomas) but Williams was probably open as well. Howell made up his mind pre-snap he was going to Terry & the pass was incomplete.

But wasn’t that a drop on terrys part it hit him square in the hands?