The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[The Consigliere]

19 hours ago, illone said:

 

This dog will hunt. 
 

Its no coincidence Sam fell off right around week 13-14… 
 

 

Well, I'm sure the fact that we ended the season with a litany of top end defenses (SF, Dallas twice, NYJ) a formerly strong run that still can pack a punch (LA Rams), and one that's at least league average (Miami), meant there was always going to be struggles late, now add players quitting on the season and/or playing in an uncommitted sense down the stretch, a coaching staff that knows they're dead men walking and you have a convergence of a wide variety of issues all of which would lead to struggles. 

 

Still drafting a QB at 2, but I don't think this season really taught us much about Howell beyond he can play in this league. Giving him a ---- head coach, a horrendous OL, middling at best supporting cast of weapons, and a league worst defense, a "unique" HC approach to play calling, and, well, we're probably never going to find out for sure what he could have been here. 

[Wyvern]

Before we all rush to judgement that Howell absolutely needs to be jettisoned, and as justification pointing to his December fade and his record of  21 passing TD's / 21 INT's and 4-13 W/L record, let's recall that Peyton Manning's first season (1998) wasn't very good either.  Manning had 26 passing TD's / 28 INT's and a 3-13 record with Indy that year, bit the next full year he halved those INT numbers and helped Indy make the playoffs.  Check out the passing stats of Manning's first year with Indy -- there are a lot of similarities to the yards per attempt, ratings, etc to what Howell had in his first year.  Some QBs -- especially ones working with lower-tier teams -- may not have great first years.

 

I'm not saying that Howell is going to be the next Peyton Manning;  maybe what we're seeing from him in 2023 was actually something close to his ceiling -- maybe he'll just turn out to be an average journeyman backup QB, or maybe something better than that.  Or perhaps Howell has already been too  damaged by Rivera/Bieniemy's approach to player development, O-line, play-schemes, etc. ... Or, just maybe he'll learn from the hard lessons of his 2023 experience and bounce back into a better QB performance (even as a backup) in 2024.  If he does look better in 2024, but Washington doesn't want to undermine the confidence their new 1st round QB -- they might still be able to get a better trade value for Howell to a team in need during the 2024 season, than if they simply unloaded him during this off-season.  

 

Assuming the new coaches/FO do decide Howell is best slotted just as a backup or #3 emergency QB, he'd probably be a cheaper QB option than trying to re-sign Brissett or signing some other "veteran" QB journeyman during free-agency.  And who knows, maybe Howell might look a little better ( or at least more reliable) in a different offensive scheme than Bieniemy's, especially if he's only brought in as a backup, during a point in the game when there's less pressure on him to have to play 'hero-ball'.  And if he looked good in those scenarios, then he'd become a good trading chip for some team needing depth at their QB position because their starting QB went down.  

 

Right now, there's a lot of folks who strongly feel it's best for Washington to clean house and start everything anew -- which means tossing out or trading a lot of the players from the existing roster.  But even if the new front office decides to take that approach, they wouldn't be dropping everyone -- and I suspect they'd be careful to be very sure that those they did release/trade really had no value in their plans for the franchise in 2024 and beyond.

 

 

 

Edited January 9 by Wyvern

[Thinking Skins]

More thoughts about Howell. 

 

So I think its all but certain they're picking a QB at 2. But for Howell, I'd be wanting to know what he's doing this offseason. Who is he working with to correct his flaws. There are guys like Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Gardner Minshew, Brock Purdy, etc who are all on the shorter side but don't have Sam's problems with sacks, ints and batted balls. Or some have had them and overcame them. So if I'm Sam I'm going to them or their QB coaches or their former QB coaches or somebody on their team who can help to understand how to get better. 

 

I see Baker Mayfield in particular had a season similar to Sam where he had 22 TDs and 21 INTs and 40 sacks. 

[method man]

6 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

More thoughts about Howell. 

 

So I think its all but certain they're picking a QB at 2. But for Howell, I'd be wanting to know what he's doing this offseason. Who is he working with to correct his flaws. There are guys like Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Gardner Minshew, Brock Purdy, etc who are all on the shorter side but don't have Sam's problems with sacks, ints and batted balls. Or some have had them and overcame them. So if I'm Sam I'm going to them or their QB coaches or their former QB coaches or somebody on their team who can help to understand how to get better. 

 

I see Baker Mayfield in particular had a season similar to Sam where he had 22 TDs and 21 INTs and 40 sacks. 

Jay had a point that one of the things he doesn’t like about Howell is he plays small

[Skinsinparadise]

9 hours ago, Going Commando said:

 

I don't think the Sam Howell comparison for Maye is even remotely accurate.  The only real things they have in common are playing for UNC.  There isn't a single meaningful trait where Howell is as good as Maye, and that should be kind of plain from the fact Maye is going to go #2 overall in a loaded draft class while Howell was a second round talent who got picked in the 5th round of a bad class.

 

Yeah i don't get the Sam Howell comparisons either.  Aside from they both have some WTF throws in games where I gather in Howell's case its because he doesn't see the field well and in Maye's case its because he sometimes trusts his arm too much.  So I agree they share that weakness.  But otherwise, I don't see many parallels. 

 

I saw the Herbert comparisons when watching Maye intitially but the Josh Allen ones not as much but over time I see it more.  They both play with a confidence that borders on athletic arrogance.  But for me that's what won me over.  He thinks he can make every throw and is fearless.  Fearless as a runner too.   Having a talent like that at QB would be a ton of fun. 

Edited January 10 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

What makes Maye special?

Multiple scouts mentioned that in most years, Maye would make a fine No. 1 overall pick. He has the size, mechanics and pedigree, as his father was also a UNC quarterback and threw for more than 3,400 yards and had a cup of coffee in the NFL.

The most interesting part about Maye was that essentially a year ago, he was in a battle for the starting job at North Carolina. He narrowly beat out Jacolby Criswell, who has since transferred to Arkansas, and has rocketed to notoriety.

Maye threw for 38 touchdowns and seven interceptions last year, finishing the season with 4,321 yards. He completed 66.2% of his passes and led the Tar Heels to a 9-1 start before UNC dropped its final four games. His 45 combined touchdowns (38 passing, 7 rushing) were the most by a freshman in ACC history.

"I think the arm talent, combined with size and instincts, is what separates him from a lot of guys," a scout said. "For a young player, he's so far along and has so many tools. What's unique about him is the height and vision to see the whole field and obviously the arm talent to make all the throws.

"He plays really aggressively from the pocket. What he's really good at is seeing the rush and, for a big guy, he can really move around and is athletic enough to create on his own."

Last year, Maye needed that athleticism. UNC did one of the worst jobs protecting the quarterback of any team in college football, finishing No. 101 in the country by allowing 40 sacks.

He was pressured on an astounding 37.3% of his dropbacks last year, the 11th-highest rate in the country per ESPN Stats & Information research. That unit's improvement -- and the eligibility of star transfer receiver Tez Walker -- will go a long way in determining if Maye can lead UNC to the school's first ACC title since 1980.

"He just sort of plays under duress and is really productive under duress," the scout said. "They don't protect him as well as other places, so you see him under duress and he makes plays. That enhances him at our level."

Some of the Maye draft momentum came from his pro day, when he threw to former teammate and current Indianapolis Colts rookie Josh Downs.

"He looked like he'd added 15 pounds since the regular season ended; he looked like a guy with a Justin Herbert-kind of build," said a scout who was at the pro day. "I feel like his throwing at that pro day will help him a lot. Josh didn't have to slow up for a football. It was because of Drake. That's one of those things that's going to propel him."

---

What more could we see from Maye?

Trestman pulled a recent comparison when scouting Maye. He noted that he's already more accurate and has better mechanics and mobility than Will Levis. (Levis was drafted in the second round this year.)

Still, for a player with just one full season of playing, that's already a jump start. Maye had been committed to Alabama before flipping to UNC, so the talent and trajectory aren't a surprise.

 

"The game appears really easy and slow for him," Trestman said. "I think just looking at it, he needs to continue to improve his lower-end mechanics. Sometimes, his accuracy can be impacted by his legs and his lower body."

A lot of what scouts want to see from Maye will come with more experience. NFL scouts are curious to see his adjustment from Phil Longo's spread offense with wide splits to a more conventional college offense under first-year coordinator Chip Lindsey.

"I think he flashes anticipation, but you'd like to see more evidence of it," a scout said. "That's across the board with most college quarterbacks, but in this offense in particular he'll have a chance to showcase that.

"He can play quicker, working through it. Seeing the field. His eyes could be quicker. That'll come with time. But he's a pretty clean prospect."

 

https://www.espn.com/college-football/insider/story/_/id/38249736/usc-caleb-williams-north-carolina-drake-maye-scouting-nfl-draft

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

20 hours ago, Wyvern said:

 

 

I'm not saying that Howell is going to be the next Peyton Manning; 

 

Nah.

 

That's exactly what you were saying and your post is dumb and no one likes it because it is bad.

 

Stop making dumb posts.

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

🎶 HE’S HERE! HE’S THERE! HE’S EVERY ****IN’ WHERE!! DRAKE MAAAAAAAYE!! DRAKE MAAAAAAAAYE!! 🎶

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

14 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I saw the Herbert comparisons when watching Maye intitially but the Josh Allen ones not as much but over time I see it more.  They both play with a confidence that borders on athletic arrogance.  But for me that's what won me over.  He thinks he can make every throw and is fearless.  Fearless as a runner too.   Having a talent like that at QB would be a ton of fun. 

 

Yea. I think people are bad at this and don't fully recognize why some QBs are first round talents and other QBs are not.

 

It usually just comes down to arm strength. It's the reason guys who are terrible at every aspect of quarterbacking like George or Grossman or whoever all hung around ten years. Becasue the ability to throw the ball sixty yards and hurt the receivers hands is just not something that is common.

 

If you watch that ridiculous Eli Manning "Chad Powers" video, you can see what that one coach who was suckered in saw. This dumpy, kind of out of shape guy has shockingly good feet and a cannon of an arm. 

 

Big arms are sexy.

[Warhead36]

Big arms allow you to open up your offense. It elevates your ceiling so much. Of course there are so many other factors that are important but you can't discount the value of a cannon arm.

[DJHJR86]

21 hours ago, Wyvern said:

Before we all rush to judgement that Howell absolutely needs to be jettisoned, and as justification pointing to his December fade and his record of  21 passing TD's / 21 INT's and 4-13 W/L record, let's recall that Peyton Manning's first season (1998) wasn't very good either.  Manning had 26 passing TD's / 28 INT's and a 3-13 record with Indy that year, bit the next full year he halved those INT numbers and helped Indy make the playoffs.  Check out the passing stats of Manning's first year with Indy -- there are a lot of similarities to the yards per attempt, ratings, etc to what Howell had in his first year.  Some QBs -- especially ones working with lower-tier teams -- may not have great first years.

 

Don't compare him to Peyton Manning.  Ever.  Compare him to other mid-late round quarterback picks in the last few years that have started a decent amount of games.

 

He has the most interceptions, the lowest passing yards per attempt, and a passer rating nearly identical to Mills and Zappe.  He's a backup quarterback.  

[FootballZombie]

23 hours ago, Wyvern said:

I'm not saying that Howell is going to be the next Peyton Manning;  maybe what we're seeing from him in 2023 was actually something close to his ceiling -- maybe he'll just turn out to be an average journeyman backup QB, or maybe something better than that. 

 

Problem with that line of thinking is Sam is not a high cost asset. He can not afford to be bad for a stretch of time. He has no sunk cost fallacy safety net to fall back on.

 

It is pretty easy to find young QBs Sam outplayed. Bryce Young is at the top of the list. Sam demolishes him in the majority of metrics, but the "lesser" guy will be the unquestioned starter next year while the "better" guy won't be simply due to the investment made into the player.

 

Its not a matter of patience or development, its simply how the league treats its low cost QBs.

 

High cost guys like Peyton or Bryce will be given every opportunity to improve and grow. Sam will not. Its not fair, but its the way it is. He had to come out good and end good. He didn't so the team will make every effort to replace him. Now his only pathway to success will be thru someone else failure/injury and not due to opportunities given to him.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

On 1/9/2024 at 9:09 AM, KDawg said:

The only other option is a veteran trade. And if we do that and manage to keep pick #2 I’d assume Marvin Harrison is an option. I’d put the odds there low.

 

 

Just to entertain this...

 

We could probably trade for (age next season in parenthesis): Kyler Murray (27), Russell Wilson (36), Daniel Jones (27), Derek Carr (33), Geno Smith (34)

We could sign in FA: Kirk Cousins (36)...or Jacoby Brissett (32), Ryan Tannehill (36), Tyrod Taylor (35)

 

Honestly, with our data driven approach that ownership loves...I could even see a 1% chance of signing Kirk, trading the #2 for oodles of picks, then picking Nabers (probably not still around) or Odunze. Given the trade candidates above, are any of them that tempting? Russell Wilson is the most appealing of the bunch, and nobody is even sure if he's washed up or not. I doubt ownership wants to bet big on Kyler Murray who has work ethic concerns.

 

Drafting a QB at #2 seems more likely after I just tried to cobble together a list of veterans.

[Skinsinparadise]

18 minutes ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

 

Just to entertain this...

 

We could probably trade for (age next season in parenthesis): Kyler Murray (27), Russell Wilson (36), Daniel Jones (27), Derek Carr (33), Geno Smith (34)

We could sign in FA: Kirk Cousins (36)...or Jacoby Brissett (32), Ryan Tannehill (36), Tyrod Taylor (35)

 

Honestly, with our data driven approach that ownership loves...I could even see a 1% chance of signing Kirk, trading the #2 for oodles of picks, then picking Nabers (probably not still around) or Odunze. Given the trade candidates above, are any of them that tempting? Russell Wilson is the most appealing of the bunch, and nobody is even sure if he's washed up or not. I doubt ownership wants to bet big on Kyler Murray who has work ethic concerns.

 

Drafting a QB at #2 seems more likely after I just tried to cobble together a list of veterans.

 

I admit most of my analytics experience is listening to the Football Outsiders guys back in the day and PFF so am not sure how that translates to the professional anaylitics types.

 

But judging by that they love trading down UNLESS you need a QB.  They are beyond obsessive about QBs.  They think you got to keep shooting for one every year if necessary until you find that guy. 

 

I've been listening to some of the PFF guys about Washington since landing the #2 pick, they think they just hit the lottery because of their spot to get a QB.

Edited January 10 by Skinsinparadise

[FunBunny]

No way I would draft Drake Maye. Seems bizarre to me that he is even considered when Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams are clearly better. 

[El Mexican]

3 hours ago, FootballZombie said:

[...]

 

He had to come out good and end good. He didn't so the team will make every effort to replace him. Now his only pathway to success will be thru someone else failure/injury and not due to opportunities given to him.

 

This is true, man.

 

More paradoxical is the fact that he racked up about 40 sacks at midseason when he was playing good to very good (we gave up 65 all season)

 

But at the midpoint of the season something happened and even though the sacks were reduced considerably, his play suffered quite a bit. 

 

Some say other teams figured him out. Others say he needs more time to find those chunky deep routes, thus more sacks. Another group just blames EB for the disaster.

 

I think it's a bit of everything and now Howell is Ramseyed.

[philibusters]

1 hour ago, FunBunny said:

No way I would draft Drake Maye. Seems bizarre to me that he is even considered when Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams are clearly better. 

 

I would put the odds that we draft Drake Maye at maybe 80%.  Small shot we can trade up, small shot we take Jayden Daniels instead, and small shot we trade down, but the overwhelming likelihood is we draft Maye.  

[Thinking Skins]

Honestly right now I'd

1. Trade that second round pick for Justin Fields (he's 24)

2. Maybe trade down a few spots and draft Daniels

3. Stay where we are and draft Daniels

4. Draft another guy in the 2nd. 

[Warhead36]

1 minute ago, Thinking Skins said:

Honestly right now I'd

1. Trade that second round pick for Justin Fields (he's 24)

2. Maybe trade down a few spots and draft Daniels

3. Stay where we are and draft Daniels

4. Draft another guy in the 2nd. 

Im fine with drafting Daniels but I wouldn’t give up anything for Fields man he stinks. 

[Tyler Spiers]

36 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Im fine with drafting Daniels but I wouldn’t give up anything for Fields man he stinks. 

Draft Daniels, re-sign Brissett to start until the new O-Line and Daniels are ready. Keep Howell as QB# 3 and then possibly trade him if a team is desperate next year. Maybe the Patriots would trade with us to nab Maye. Does it work that way? Could we trade to Patriots, they get Maye, then we get Daniels? Or would we risk losing Daniels to Patriots if we trade back. Not sure on that process. 

[BBLXIX]

1 hour ago, Thinking Skins said:

Honestly right now I'd

1. Trade that second round pick for Justin Fields (he's 24)

2. Maybe trade down a few spots and draft Daniels

3. Stay where we are and draft Daniels

4. Draft another guy in the 2nd. 

 

A 2nd rounder is a bit rich for Fields. He wasn't the only problem in Chicago, but he was 'a' problem. His operation, and processing is just waaaaay too slow. His D2 backup had a sack% of like 3%. Behind mostly the same offensive line Fields' was at like 12%. You simply can't win with a guy that eats sacks at that rate. He also likes to hold onto the ball which throws off the timing of the offense. You gottta make a financial decision on him shortly on top of all of that.

 

If you like Daniels I'd just take him at 2. I suppose it's possible we could play the Cardinals and Chargers off of each other, to get a few extra picks, but they'd REALLY have to like MHJ. And that still doesn't guarantee that the Patriots just don't take Daniels at 3. Or maybe if we were to trade with the Chargers the Cardinals start playing games like they have a crazy offer for a QB to move down and pass on MHJ. I get the sentiment, but we don't wanna get left holding the bag.

Edited January 11 by BBLXIX

[KDawg]

3 hours ago, FunBunny said:

No way I would draft Drake Maye. Seems bizarre to me that he is even considered when Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams are clearly better. 

I don’t know that Daniels is clearly better. Daniels had a fantastic season and is a great runner. But he struggles with understanding how to minimize contact and his deep passes are most often to receivers with more than a few yards of separation. 
 

He’s been decent his entire career but nothing beyond that this year. And while this year was stellar, I worry about his down field accuracy and field vision as it pertains to reading coverage and not leading already open receivers.

 

But he’s a great prospect. I think Daniels is QB3 but I can see why folks like him.

[PeterMP]

I sort of like the idea of trading for Fields at a reasonable cost.  But you also have to take into account he's in the last year of his contract.  Even when you have a great QB if you are paying them market value, it gets hard to put a good team around them.

 

Just look at the Eagles and KC.  Given that, I think I'd pass on trading for Fields unless it came with a very reasonable contract extension.

Edited January 11 by PeterMP

[FunBunny]

8 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I don’t know that Daniels is clearly better. Daniels had a fantastic season and is a great runner. But he struggles with understanding how to minimize contact and his deep passes are most often to receivers with more than a few yards of separation. 
 

He’s been decent his entire career but nothing beyond that this year. And while this year was stellar, I worry about his down field accuracy and field vision as it pertains to reading coverage and not leading already open receivers.

 

But he’s a great prospect. I think Daniels is QB3 but I can see why folks like him.

 

Here is my take on Maye and Daniels. 

 

Daniels put up spectacular numbers against the top competition this year. He put up great numbers against top competition last year. Maye's numbers are mediocre compared to Daniel's and he played against mediocre competition (SEC>B1G>PAC12>BIG12(?)>ACC). Drake Maye played for a college that loves cranking out trash QBs. 

 

I will be extremely unhappy if Washington drafts Maye.

[PeterMP]

Generally, I suspect with running/more mobile QBs we are going to start to see them treated more like RBs.  With the idea that they have only so many hits/runs in them and their value drops to the point that the big/long term extension doesn't make sense.

 

For somebody like Hurts, small injuries seem to have built up and sapped him of his ability/desire to make big plays in the run game.