All things defense

[dyst]

If these young pieces come together it will be a magical year 

[Koolblue13]

35 minutes ago, dyst said:

If these young pieces come together it will be a magical year 

If we can average 5 more points a game, with a TO ratio improved by 5, we suddenly become a pretty good playoff team.

[SkinsFTW]

On 7/22/2023 at 8:39 AM, Koolblue13 said:

If we can average 5 more points a game, with a TO ratio improved by 5, we suddenly become a pretty good playoff team.

 

5 more points a game seems almost unrealistic. That is a huge difference. Howell would likely have to be a pro bowler for that to happen.

[Chris 44]

4 hours ago, SkinsFTW said:

 

5 more points a game seems almost unrealistic. That is a huge difference. Howell would likely have to be a pro bowler for that to happen.

I see it a bit different, with competent QB play and with these weapons, a couple of field goals or just one touchdown more a game seems entirely attainable.

[Conn]

1 hour ago, Chris 44 said:

I see it a bit different, with competent QB play and with these weapons, a couple of field goals or just one touchdown more a game seems entirely attainable.

It may sound reasonable when you say it like that, but it doesn’t make it any less of an unrealistic jump when you look at the numbers. We were the 24th scoring offense last season (in a big cluster of teams who were about a point away from all being bottom-5 scoring offenses). But it’s the NFL, the margins are pretty thin and simply adding 5ppg each week on average is a monster difference—it would easily vault us into the top-10, between 8-9. It’s a big difference to consistently score that extra 5-6 points a week. 
 

If people actually think that’s a realistic level of improvement for us to have with Howell, combined with our defense they must think we’re an NFC Championship game contender. Why not with this defense and a projectable top-10 scoring offense? 
 

That’s why it’s probably an unrealistic level of improvement, even though it doesn’t seem like that much. It’s huge. 
 

 

[Koolblue13]

We scored 35 TDs last season. 10th least in the league. 5 points a game puts us in the top 15 and a playoff team, but not the top offense, but pretty damn good.

 

Going from -5 to a 0 TO ratio is middle of the field. With our secondary and our pass rush, along with what should be an improved offense, that number should improve more than that.

[Warhead36]

I expect us to generate more takeaways since it tends to be a volatile stat anyway and we made upgrades in that area. But I also expect us to turn it over more with a younger QB.

[Going Commando]

I wonder if we are going to play more man coverage than zone this year?  Last year's scheme says we'll be zone heavy, but look at the personnel in the secondary now.  Cover 1 feels like a natural fit.  Juice and Quan are made to play man.  Obviously it'll depend on the opposing offense, and we'll have to go two high against the Cowboys and other big play teams.  But it just feels right to me to go man heavy with Butler playing deep and Curl and Forrest walking up.  Slow down the middle of the field, Fuller and Forbes playing off on the outside, and primarily use a four man rush with the occasional Curl or Quan or Jamin blitz peppered in.

 

I have a feeling offenses are going to be coping with a lot of short throws to the flats and that explosive plays will be hard to hit on us.  Jamin is going to get a million tackles this year.

[dyst]

Jonathan Allen at #52

 

https://youtube.com/watch?v=L9MOyO_Zyvs&feature=sharec

[Voice_of_Reason]

On 7/28/2023 at 1:10 AM, SkinsFTW said:

 

5 more points a game seems almost unrealistic. That is a huge difference. Howell would likely have to be a pro bowler for that to happen.

Well, I’m not sure that’s entirely true.  Play well? Yes.  
 

Pro-bowl level?  Eh… maybe?

 

The ‘Manders were 24th I’m the NFL with 18.9 ppg.

 

An additional 3 PPG would put them almost square in the middle of the pack.  
 

24ppg would be ~10th in the NFL.  You’re right that’s a huge leap.  But 24 ppg is not some insurmountable number of points.  
 

Im guessing they’re closer to 22, and around middle of the pack.  

 

But if the defense is who we think they should be, 22ppg will be enough to win a lot of games.  Also, better defense will provide shorter fields and more turnovers which will result in more points. 

On 7/28/2023 at 9:34 AM, Warhead36 said:

I expect us to generate more takeaways since it tends to be a volatile stat anyway and we made upgrades in that area. But I also expect us to turn it over more with a younger QB.

I don’t.  Wentz and TH were not good at protecting the ball.  Young or old, the bar is already set low.  I think Howell can be better.  

[Warhead36]

2 hours ago, dyst said:

Jonathan Allen at #52

 

https://youtube.com/watch?v=L9MOyO_Zyvs&feature=sharec

Dang that's high. Almost top 50. Didn't think he'd get ranked that high but he deserves it. 

 

Dude deserves to be playing in high level playoff games. A few more years like the last few and we're talking about a possible gold jacket. Especially since I feel like his game will age really well since he's reliant on technique and consistency and not just some crazy athleticism.

[Koolblue13]

3 hours ago, dyst said:

Jonathan Allen at #52

 

https://youtube.com/watch?v=L9MOyO_Zyvs&feature=sharec

That was awesome. He's so good. Him and Payne are just absolute monsters. If Sweat can get better at closing and Chase returns to form our front four is going to be insane.

 

Especially with our coverage being better.

[skinny21]

15 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

That was awesome. He's so good. Him and Payne are just absolute monsters. If Sweat can get better at closing and Chase returns to form our front four is going to be insane.

 

Especially with our coverage being better.

It was interesting to hear London’s take on our linebackers… I’m taking it with a grain of salt of course given his current position, but the man knows a little something about linebacker play, lol

[Koolblue13]

This is super cool to watch. I'm expecting a lot of this formation this year

 

[Going Commando]

46 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

This is super cool to watch. I'm expecting a lot of this formation this year

 

Yeah it's a brilliant package to neutralize zone runs, which is what pretty much all of the leagues best offenses build their ground game on.  It neutralizes speedy o lines.

 

5-1-5 is the future of great NFL defense, and in a couple of seasons, people will be copying what we do and citing it as the prototype for a new defensive philosophy.  Everyone always complains about how we are never ahead of the curve on schematic/team building changes, but on this we are.  IDLs have almost completely replaced linebackers in value, and we were ahead of this trend by loading up on the positionin group.  Five years from now, no one will still be saying you can't pay two DTs big money.

[Koolblue13]

7 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

Yeah it's a brilliant package to neutralize zone runs, which is what pretty much all of the leagues best offenses build their ground game on.  It neutralizes speedy o lines.

 

5-1-5 is the future of great NFL defense, and in a couple of seasons, people will be copying what we do and citing it as the prototype for a new defensive philosophy.  Everyone always complains about how we are never ahead of the curve on schematic/team building changes, but on this we are.  IDLs have almost completely replaced linebackers in value, and we were ahead of this trend by loading up on the positionin group.  Five years from now, no one will still be saying you can't pay two DTs big money.

Mathis being healthy and having a good camp is going to be huge for us. Perfect guy to sit in the middle of that line and hold the POA.

 

Also our secondary with Quan, Curl and DeFo should be able to fly up to the line

[The Hangman- C_Hanburger]

On 7/28/2023 at 9:34 AM, Warhead36 said:

I expect us to generate more takeaways since it tends to be a volatile stat anyway and we made upgrades in that area. But I also expect us to turn it over more with a younger QB.

I expect a simple Field Position delta to help get those points. More Defensive Stops= more offensive plays, shorter field for Howell to work RPO magic and a "new" play caller...Hell Turner left that # on the field most games....Turnovers are just icing on the cake. If the offense doesn't turn the ball over I see a Ravens/Dilfer clone.

[Going Commando]

I think there is some arbitrary artificiality in distinguishing the function between various types of box defenders.  A 5-1-5 defines only one linebacker in the package, but look at where Kam Curl is actually aligned in the example against the Falcons that Bullock shows.  In the stack, directly beside Jamin, performing the exact same role and function as a linebacker.

 

The distinctions in role between the various kinds of second level box defender have broken down.  Linebackers have been replaced in defenses by defensive backs who are still good at tackling and playing downhill against the run.  Natural consequence of the spread formation and the pass catching heavy role of the modern tight end.  The old school Mike and Sam are gone.  Now you set the strong side edge with a guy who is a down lineman the majority of the time, have a DB run the alley, and use an extra IDL if you need more hats in the A gaps.

[RandyHolt]

Many here seem very bullish on us having a dominant defense. I have been vocal in my debbie opines predicting they won't be unleashed to my liking / used to their potential to cause max Payne and suffering on QBs and OCs. Prepping for fantasy drafts it seems we are NOT forecast to be a stop FF scoring D - instead we are middle of the road / top of tier 4. Why aren't we at least top 10??

 

Some of the middle of the road FF prediction rankings may be related to our OL/QB "situation" and how our defense will game plan. A great D inevitably gets broken down by its own feeble offense, unless the defense dictates and forces offensive futility in the opposition.

 

I know people have different metrics that they pull to say a defense is aggressive or that ours was. I like to use # of blitzers vs total times blitzed, and when was the blitz. Bringing 1 guy late once backed into the RZ shouldn't even count as a blitz since the world knows its coming. I want pressure to get more turnovers - not just say "we need more turnovers" over and over. Helmets on chins always gets folks riled up here lol. FIrst half shutouts. Not rolling over on the opening drive and giving up a 9 minute drive. Defenders are aggressive by nature. If JDR doesn't let them be aggressive he is not using his players to their strengths. I want to see JDR get the ball right back to Sam over and over.

 

Some (most?) will expect Forbes to help get our D get INTs. League leader last year had 6. Ill predict he gets 4 to get on record. Some teams Cincy IIRC have a designated stripper. Yes on the field for all to see. I hope we get with the times and do that when losing. I think we have all seen decades of our players rarely attempting a strip even in a blowout. We were better last year IIRC. No where to go but up on takeaways hopefully.

Edited August 17, 2023 by RandyHolt

[UK Skins]

Hmm, a designated stripper sounds nice??!!🤩

 

Just for clarity I don't mean the players......

Edited August 18, 2023 by UK Skins
Clarification, for Conn

[Conn]

6 hours ago, UK Skins said:

Edited 

hi. did you forget what made the previous owner such a creep, or 

[RabidFan]

On 8/7/2023 at 11:15 AM, Koolblue13 said:

Mathis being healthy and having a good camp is going to be huge for us. Perfect guy to sit in the middle of that line and hold the POA.

 

Also our secondary with Quan, Curl and DeFo should be able to fly up to the line

Hope Mathis can get back into action as he could be a big body in rotation though def impressed by Ridgeway last year so depth at DT seems best in some time.

[RandyHolt]

Oddly right after I made my post asking those uber bullish on our defense this year, why they thought the top fantasy prognosticators rate us middle of the road (which no one bit on), I heard on XM Fantasy Jeff Mans talking up taking the right DST is a total crapshoot. That the best D from 1 year doesnt translate to the next. Everyone predicting SF to be a top D every year. Special teams in the equation muddying the predictions, the coin flip of fumble recoveries, but that he targets stud edges...

 

He then proceeded to name his sleepers.... Raiders, Dolphins (based on Vic Fangio figuring out how to stop Shanahan's zone run)... and then he said our beloved Commanders.We are indeed in the running on paper to be a top fantasy scoring D and I don't deny that and pray it happens. I will likely target us in my FF leagues because I am homer regardless of my concerns that JDR won't unleash the beast.

Edited August 18, 2023 by RandyHolt

[MartinC]

3 hours ago, RandyHolt said:

Oddly right after I made my post asking those uber bullish on our defense this year, why they thought the top fantasy prognosticators rate us middle of the road (which no one bit on), I heard on XM Fantasy Jeff Mans talking up taking the right DST is a total crapshoot. That the best D from 1 year doesnt translate to the next. Everyone predicting SF to be a top D every year. Special teams in the equation muddying the predictions, the coin flip of fumble recoveries, but that he targets stud edges...

 

He then proceeded to name his sleepers.... Raiders, Dolphins (based on Vic Fangio figuring out how to stop Shanahan's zone run)... and then he said our beloved Commanders.We are indeed in the running on paper to be a top fantasy scoring D and I don't deny that and pray it happens. I will likely target us in my FF leagues because I am homer regardless of my concerns that JDR won't unleash the beast.

Even as good as our front is and secondary could be I still have a feeling we will be a bend dont break type D. Give up yardage between the 20's but hold teams to FGs. Key to changing that is Young and Sweat turning pressures into sacks and really impacting the QB. Have to get more production from those two in terms of impact plays.

[RandyHolt]

7 hours ago, MartinC said:

Even as good as our front is and secondary could be I still have a feeling we will be a bend dont break type D. Give up yardage between the 20's but hold teams to FGs. Key to changing that is Young and Sweat turning pressures into sacks and really impacting the QB. Have to get more production from those two in terms of impact plays.

Its interesting to hear someone else share my... fears. It comes down to having a bunch of studs up front and the belief a DC shouldn't have to blitz to get pressure with the draft capital Ron has used on defense. Including now on the backend giving our pass rush a bit more time. But not if they are playing off in the famous BDB scheme to slow the game down minimize drives in an attempt to keep scores low to help out an O under siege. 

 

Thanks for chiming in. I get it, its time for an over abundance of unbridled optimism on D especially after the 2 more top picks used. But i think the book is largely written on RR/JDR at this point. While JDR did get a little more aggressive last year, I expect the same approach this year. Unless EB and Sam knock it out of the park and afford our defense leads to pin the ears back...  its up to EB to work around the OLs weaknesses and Sam to thrive to have a top 5 defense.

 

I like to look at opposition defenses aggressivenss / showing no respect vs our offense to help gauge JDRs approach. It was painful watching many of our DCs play BDB vs rookie QBs. Rookie QBs that would always beat us.  Haslett attacked Foles early to break that losing streak and saved our RG3 season.

Edited August 19, 2023 by RandyHolt