2022 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[Skinsinparadise]

2 hours ago, Thinking Skins said:

Its ineresting. I never bought Thomas's knowledge but I liked his rapport with his producer. Sheehan is annoying in his hate. Thomas was at least energetic and could wake me up mid day

 

I guess because i am a pro Rivera guy and Sheehan is at least semi pro Rivera, I find Thomas more annoying because IMO he was less informed than Sheehan and a big time hater of Rivera but did it in a passive aggressive way.  In fact, Thomas might be the only Rivera hater among the radio personalities, another hater doesn't hit me aside from the boiler plate hits from Brian Mitchell but I take Mitchell with a grain of salt because he thinks all our coaches with few exceptions were dummies over the years.  lol, I recall his rants on Comcast about Kyle Shanahan when he was here among other things.  He's one of the few who thinks our coaches have been given too much of a pass and too much blame is placed on Dan even though he doesn't care for Dan either. 

 

2 hours ago, Thinking Skins said:

 

I will admit that I've been jealous of Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Philadelphia in how their front offices work, but at the same time we can't praise them for what they do and then get mad when we do it. Case in point, they were known for not giving guys second contracts especially if it was going to set the market. So they'd get rid of the guys and potentially draft the replacement a year early rather than late. Thats exactly what we seem to be doing with Mathis but its gotten the most hate. It seems like a move they would do. So what about "self created holes", Philly would create those holes and fill them just as quickly. But when we do it its bad. 

 

The Ravens might be the best.  As for Philly I am jealous of them on one front.  They know how to move up and down the draft and add draft picks for their players -- Roseman might be the best in the league on that front and the clowns running this team were IMO by a mile the worst at it.  Thankfully Roseman IMO is mediocre at actually drafting.  But outside of the Ravens no team might be more clever at adding draft capital.

 

Vinny and Bruce were more or less allergic to adding draft value, them being buffoons doesn't even sum it well - SF wants to give us the 2nd pick in the draft and change for Kirk, yawn, he'd rather rent Kirk for another season and get a 3rd round comp for him for the rental.  We can get a first or 2nd-3rd for Trent, who cares, lets battle him and whatever happens in the offseason including losing our leverage for draft capital, who gives a rats behind.  It's wild that the peak draft capital we've gotten in all of Dan's miserable run is a third round pick for an elite LT.    Howie Roseman can school Vinny and Bruce but granted who couldn't?

Edited May 6, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[Number 44]

1 hour ago, Est.1974 said:

Do you mean legs ?

 

If so you have clearly never seen Fred Flintstone starting his car before....

Yabba dabba doo!

[HigSkin]

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

23 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

I don't understand this kind of take. People have been grading drafts for decades, it's based on perceived value, you take the aggregate board, you take the players taken, where they're taken, and you see whether people got value, or not, and where people reached or not. Yes it lacks nuance, the nuance of reaching for Dotson is that we apparently did not see Burks and Skyy Moore and others in same tier as Dotson, I think that's clinically insane, but at least there's reasoning based upon it. That being said, I'm not going to give them a free pass for it either. 

Who's perceived value?  That's the problem. 

 

The "perceived value" is created by the draft analysts based on a very few criteria: watching film and looking at measurables.  A few will attend some pro-days. Teams do SO MUCH MORE research, with interview, medicals, scheme fit, team needs, coaches interviews, other research, etc.  There is just no way that the media board is going to be anywhere near as sophisticated as ANY of the 32 team boards. So why are we taking THAT as the baseline, when it's a MUCH, MUCH, MUCH more rudimentary evaluation than ANY team does?

 

Even the aggregate board is completely wonky.  Again I point to the QBs to illustrate how far off, just for one position, all of the pundits were to what the entire NFL thought of position.  

 

The fact is there is no such thing as perceived value outside of the evaluations of the 32 teams.  What the media folks spin up is, essentially, meaningless.  They have absolutely no way of knowing what the teams are thinking, and what the value of the players are to the teams. 

 

Now, if you could somehow get all 32 teams to send in their boards anonymously, and then aggregated them, and then compare against THAT, now THAT would be FASCINATING.  AND relevant.  But we don't have that.  And we never will.  So compared against a rudimentary board put together by a bunch of folks who don't have jobs doing it for real for teams?  Eh, I am not going to consider that as gospel.  

 

This whole cottage industry was created by Mel Kiper.  And he's an ****ing genius. (And I like Mel.)  But it literally means nothing.  I keep coming back to this, the best of Mel was when he went on a tirade in 1994 because the Colts picked an OLB at #2, and they should have drafted Trent Dilfer, according to his board, and the QB on the colts was John Harbaugh.  Well, the GM Bill Tobin fired back, "who the hell is Mel Kiper anyway?" Mel Kiper literally went to go die on the Trent Dilfer hill.  Guess what happened Harbaugh won comeback player of the year in 1995, and the Colts were in the AFC Championship game.  And almost beat the Steelers. And Trent flamed out with the Bucs, and then won a SB as possibly the weakest link on a team with one of the top 3 (at WORST) defenses in the history of the league.

 

There is no consensus perceived value.  The GMs have all come out and said the draft boards are all different. Beane said it, the GM in Baltimore.  

 

Keim also said it well, "it's easy to win the draft.  Just go pick whoever is projected at that spot, and the media will love it."

 

I couldn't care less WHAT the media likes or doesn't like the day after the draft.  I appreciate the time and effort they put in to educate us on the players.  The mocks are fun, the big-boards are fun, but in they end, they are eye-candy.  Completely meaningless and very pointless.  

 

23 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

If you have Dotson rated a legit tier above Moore, and Burks and because of that you take Dotson 8+ picks before he would've gone you sure as hell better be right about both Doston AND with Burks and Moore (I think they're wrong, at the very least with one of them, very possibly both), if they aren't, you can bash them even more, and yes media people are justified in taking issue with it, just as you can back pocket the idea that if they had traded down substantially there very possibly could have been a tier break happening, just as there was between 11 and 16 (with Hamilton, Jameson and Olave all flying off the board). 

8 picks is irrelevant.  The question is when you are picking, and when you are picking again, absent a trade.  And who's magic media board has Dotson slotted 8 spots lower?  Who cares?  Just about everybody had Dotson as a first round selection.  A bunch of folks said he basically went where they thought he was going to go-ish.  It's possible the trade-up scenario was either KC or GB who were looking to come to TAKE Dotson.  

 

There is absolutely no way to know when a player is going to actually drop in the draft.  The players don't know, the media doesn't know, and the agents sure as **** don't know because not even idiot Vinny Cerrato would tell an agent the team's plans because the agent would simply leverage that information with another team.  (And if they didn't, they wouldn't be doing their jobs.)

 

Literally nobody but the people who put together the 32 boards know how they rank the players.

 

The media is creating a TV/Radio/Podcast show for IT'S benefit.  Because it's good entertainment.  And people like it, and I'm totally cool with that. I like it. 

 

But they KNOW nothing.  Their evaluations are just as valid as any fan watching film and getting a man-crush. 

 

23 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

As for taking Nystrom to task, why? Isn't the burden of proof on this FO and this organization in general? They've been bad to terrible for decades. The media's skepticism with us is warranted and on aggregate boards we did reach and reach big time on our first two picks, the two most valuable by far we had. It's nice that we got value, or at best neutral value with many of our day 3 picks and Robinson but he isn't wrong here. 

There is no burden of proof on the FO or organization to prove that Nystrom is an arrogant, self absorbed, small minded ass hat.  He was so butt hurt that his QB 1 (WIllis), who he has been bandying about as the next great thing since after the Senior Bowl (and on his appearance on Galdi after the senior bold he did some pea****ing around because Willis had a good few days even then), got picked in the 3rd round, it was funny.  He said something "I've never been so sure I was right and the NFL was wrong about a player as I am with Malik Willis, since Lamar Jackson." Except the NFL wasn't wrong about Lamar, the Ravens traded UP to get him.  He thought he should go earlier.  Fine, whatever, he still went in the first round, and a team valued him enough to trade up, so I'm not sure how "the NFL was wrong."

 

He literally knows nothing.  He does his evaluation, which is, at best, flawed, and then he trashes teams for being far away from his evaluation.  

 

Of all of the bozo's I've listened to, he's by far the most arrogant and by far the one who seems to be loud wrong a lot.  But hey, being loud sells.  

 

There is no such thing as a reach.  It was invented by Mel Kiper's hairspray.  You have NO IDEA when a player is going to be picked.  NONE. Mel doesn't know.  Todd doesn't know.  Thor doesn't know.  Nobody knows.  For all we know, KC/GB trades up to 17 and takes him. And you know what the narrative would have been (maybe not by the idiot Thor, but by others) "KC/GB really liked the guy, he was the highest remaining receiver on the board, they had to go get him before somebody else did.  Great job.  Good organizations."

 

 So you trust your board, and you pick the player you want to pick when you have the opportunity.

 

The "burden of proof" will be on Sundays (and Mondays and Thursdays.)  If they win, great.  

 

But all this useless teeth mashing and negativity, based on Thor Freaking Nystrom and the rest of the folks who just want to absolutely trash everything is getting so old.  

 

23 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

This does look like the worst draft we've had in years and years. ...

Anybody who grades or forms a strong opinion of a a draft class the minute after it's complete has absolutely, completely, totally, and utterly no idea what the hell they are doing. I get the media folks have to do it because it is how they fill content and generates discussion.

 

You can't judge a draft class until it has played games, and probably at least 2 years of games.

 

Saying this is the worst draft class before they have ever stepped on the field is complete lunacy.  There is no way to know ANYTHING.

 

Here's something fun:  Here is a review of the Seattle Draft in 2012:

 

Quote

No. 1: Seattle Seahawks

After one of the worst picks in the first round I can ever remember, the Seattle Seahawks didn't draft any positions of need or draft for the future. Pete Carroll is proving why he didn’t make it in the NFL the first time. Not only was Bruce Irvin a reach at No. 15, the Seahawks proved they were oblivious to their madness by celebrating their selection.

As if the day wasn’t bad enough, Seattle selecting Russell Wilson, a QB that doesn’t fit their offense at all, was by far the worst move of the draft. With the two worst moves of the draft, Seattle is the only team that received an F on draft day.

Grade: F

The players they drafted with the first 3 picks?

Bruce Irvin

Bobby Wagner

Russell Wilson

 

Guess what: Seattle, at that point, is kidnof like where we are now.  They hadn't had success in ages.  Everybody wanted to hate on them for everything.  They had what turned out to be a GREAT draft, everybody hated it.  And it wasn't just one guy.  In the cumulative grades, they ranked 30th when you combined like 10-15 different prognosticators.  

 

Literally nobody knows anything about anything after the draft.  

 

23 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

I don't know, I'm going on and on so I'll stop, I's just reiterate before I do that I find the complaining about the grades as tiresome as people find the grades themselves, especially the misinterpretation of them, as grades of anything other than a perception of value gleaned from the draft. 

And I will say complaining of grades tiresome also, especially when they are pointless.  

 

Since there is no baseline (and the media contrived baseline is pointless and meaningless because it's only about 1/4 of the evaluation teams do, and is intended for entertainment purposes only), there are no reaches, there really is no "value picks" and grades are meaningless.

 

FWIW, the way I look at a draft, is I look individually at the players which were selected, I listen to people who break them down (Logan Paulsen did a great job of it on one of the Keim podcasts, Cooley did Dotson and Howell on a Sheehan podcast), and then I think about how those players make the team better.

 

If it doesn't look like they are making the team better, then I don't so much like the pick.

 

If I understand the logic behind the pick, and it's a good player, then I like the pick.

 

And everything else is useless noise.

 

Dotson - pro ready, can contribute immediately.  A little concerned about the size, but otherwise fine.  Liked the pick.

Mathis - I like that he's a beast in the middle who can keep LBs clean, and can play over the nose, which Payne does not do well.  Needs to develop more as a pass rush guy, but he should be a really good rotational guy.  (I also don't care MI and Settle are gone.  So, they needed a good guy, and they got one.)

Robinson - I loved the pick, and I HOPE he ends up with more carries than Gibson.  

Butler - They want to tell me he can play Buffalo Nickel and FS.  I am not sure. This one, I want to see, because of the size.  Could they have gone a different direction here?  Sure.  I don't love it but we'll see.

Howell - Cooley was more critical of him than I had expected.  But they need a guy, they got a guy, and at worst he's probably a backup for a while.  In the 5th?  That's fine. 

Turner - Paulsen liked him, thought he was a bit "stiff" at times, though.  We'll see.  Big guy, I think can help with Logan is out, but he's raw.  

*** The other 2, eh, maybe they do something maybe they don't, I don't have the energy to care about 7th round picks.  Or 6th, for that matter, but Paulsen thought Turner could contribute, so I wrote it down.

 

 

[Darrell Green Fan]

On 5/6/2022 at 9:14 AM, Voice_of_Reason said:

Galdi’s podcasts is my morning drive listen. It’s out by 5am, and I think he’s now better than Sheehan.  
 

I check out Kevin’s podcast most days (I do like it when Cooley is on, snd he was yesterday) Standig, Keim and JP. And the podcast of certain segments of Bram’s show. 

 

I havent listened to live radio in eons.

I think the exact quote was “I don’t want to crush the kid but…” (proceeds to crush the kid.)

Criticism should be given when it is deserved.  
 

Not just all the time for everything under every circumstance because you hate the owner. 

 

I always enjoyed Galdi, thanks I'll check it out. I'm new to podcasts and want to support these guys. I hit Subscribe, but if I didn't would just listening give them clicks (for lack of a better word) that will increase their ad revenue?

 

I liked that Cooley bit on Sheehan the other day, specifically the river trip part. I need to go back and listen to the end.  

[Voice_of_Reason]

1 hour ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

 

I always enjoyed Galdi, thanks I'll check it out. I'm new to podcasts and want to support these guys. I hit Subscribe, but if I didn't would just listening give them clicks (for lack of a better word) that will increase their ad revenue?

 

I liked that Cooley bit on Sheehan the other day, specifically the river trip part. I need to go back and listen to the end.  

So the best thing to do is subscribe, then go to either Apple and Spotify and write a very short review and give them a rating. Ratings, Reviews and downloads all factor into the "rating" which advertisers will look at to determine which podcasts they want to select.  And of course, advertisers is how the podcast hosts make money.  Ergo, go rate and review them.  It does help a lot.  If you subscribe, the automatic download will count for downloads.  You don't actually have to listen.  I have a bunch of podcasts I subscribe to, they download, then I don't care to listen to that particular episode, so I delete it.  For example, Sheehan's radio show, JP's radio show, some Ringer shows...  

 

FWIW, shameless plug, I use a podcast platform called Overcast.  It's free.  They have some bizarre algorithm where they can actually eliminate some of the silence in podcasts, which speeds up listening time slightly.  But if you listen to a lot of podcasts, it adds up.  Since I started using it about 4 years ago I've saved 320 minutes of listening to silence.  (Which really does speak to how many podcasts I listen to...)

 

 

I listen to Galdi most days because I find him, for now, the most balanced "talk show host."  At the beginning, he HATED the Wentz trade, has come around on it a bit with new information, but is still critical.  He has jumped all over them for different moves, praised them for others.  Has good guests.  It's not "rose colored glasses" but it's also not the pit of despair that Sheehan and some others have turned into.

 

The River bit was entertaining.  His breakdown of Dotson and Howell was very good.  It's definitely worth a listen.

Edited May 7, 2022 by Voice_of_Reason

[Burgold]

Any major insights or reactions from rookie camp? From scattered tweets, it feels like it went smoothly, but I can't tell if there were any surprises or revelations. Anyone significantly better or more raw than was expected.

[Warhead36]

7 minutes ago, Burgold said:

Any major insights or reactions from rookie camp? From scattered tweets, it feels like it went smoothly, but I can't tell if there were any surprises or revelations. Anyone significantly better or more raw than was expected.

Cole Turner looks like he might be a legit steal. 

[RWJ]

22 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Cole Turner looks like he might be a legit steal. 

Only concern I had was would RR and Co. listen to the input from their scouting department headed up by Eric Stokes and I mentioned Tribble because he's a fine scout. Seems to me they did, and this draft will be one that will be remembered as one of their better in a year or two.  JMO.    

Edited May 7, 2022 by RWJ

[Koolblue13]

53 minutes ago, RWJ said:

Only concern I had was would RR and Co. listen to the input from their scouting department headed up by Eric Stokes and I mentioned Tribble because he's a fine scout. Seems to me they did, and this draft will be one that will be remembered as one of their better in a year or two.  JMO.    

Yeah, they really shifted gears from last year, so I have to think someone else is in Rons ear.

[Voice_of_Reason]

52 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Yeah, they really shifted gears from last year, so I have to think someone else is in Rons ear.

I think they were trying for something different last year, also Mahew and Hurney sortof just got there.  I believe both were hired in January.  The scouting for the draft starts before the college season, so it was probably a mash of people, thoughts, opinions, etc.

 

This is the first year the whole gang has been there from start to finish.  Year 1 was Kyle Smith.  Year 2 was kindof transition.  Year 3 is this group.  

 

I definitely think there was a change of approach, though. I think the big thing is last year they went with more guys with less experience.  This year, everybody they picked has TONS of tape.  That's a big change, and should lead to more pro-ready players. 

[duffy]

7 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

FWIW, shameless plug, I use a podcast platform called Overcast.  It's free.  They have some bizarre algorithm where they can actually eliminate some of the silence in podcasts, which speeds up listening time slightly.  But if you listen to a lot of podcasts, it adds up.  Since I started using it about 4 years ago I've saved 320 minutes of listening to silence.  (Which really does speak to how many podcasts I listen to...)

I used to work as a lifeguard in high school and listened to sports radio all the time. Back then, Jim Rome was on way more than I would have liked. I wish Overcast would have existed back then. That guy could really milk a moment of silence. 

[CTskin]

On 5/5/2022 at 10:35 AM, Anselmheifer said:

This is just an intellectually lazy/dishonest take. Maybe you actually do think your moves would have been better. But, you don’t think the roster going into next year is better than the roster in 2019?

 

https://www.hogshaven.com/platform/amp/2019/9/3/20847680/redskins-release-first-unofficial-roster-depth-chart-for-the-2019-regular-season
 

That depth chart featured Case Keenum as QB1 over Dwayne Haskins

 

Wr: Terry McLaurin, Paul Richardson, Trey Quinn

 

TE:Jordan Reed(washed), Vernon Davis, Serena sprinkle

 

RB:Derrius Guice, AP, Chris Thompson(washed)

 

It’s not even close. The roster now is way, way better. 

 

Not even close? I’ll chalk your stance up to having the advantage of hindsight.
 

take a minute and go back the 2019 off-season, remember what this board was hyping- guice was the steal of the draft, Haskins had all the potential in the world, we have the best TE combo I’m the league, PRich would take the top off of defenses, we had a stud OL… now, if you did this exercise correctly and honestly you’d realize you’re doing the same thing right now.

[Anselmheifer]

20 minutes ago, CTskin said:

Not even close? I’ll chalk your stance up to having the advantage of hindsight.
 

take a minute and go back the 2019 off-season, remember what this board was hyping- guice was the steal of the draft, Haskins had all the potential in the world, we have the best TE combo I’m the league, PRich would take the top off of defenses, we had a stud OL… now, if you did this exercise correctly and honestly you’d realize you’re doing the same thing right now.

I feel like maybe this is going to go like a conversation with Kyrie Irving about whether the earth is round. 
 

We DO have the advantage of hindsight. Also, I’m not sure anyone outside of extreme homers thought the 2019 Skins would be good.
 

Do you literally not think that the QB, WR and running back positions are going to be miles better this year than in 2019? Do you believe that the talent at the skill positions of the 2019 team and the 2022 teams are anywhere close? 

 

Even if the top of the roster talent was close, which it isn’t, the depth is so much astoundingly better now. 
 

I can count one roster error I think Ron really botched. I thought he should have offered more for Stafford and made them outbid us. Still, we paid a lot less for Wentz, and he could really turn out still.  You could argue for Justin Herbert being a miss, but NOBODY said that at the time. 
 

Are there picks and FA moves that I would have preferred? Sure. But to say that this Roster isn’t miles better than the one he inherited seems blind. 

[Voice_of_Reason]

1 hour ago, duffy said:

I used to work as a lifeguard in high school and listened to sports radio all the time. Back then, Jim Rome was on way more than I would have liked. I wish Overcast would have existed back then. That guy could really milk a moment of silence. 

As much as Chris Russell?  
 

I think it’s close.  Rome was nuts.  

[duffy]

1 hour ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

As much as Chris Russell?  
 

I think it’s close.  Rome was nuts.  

Shoot I almost forgot about him lol

[HigSkin]

Anticipated estimates -

Round 1 – WR Jahan Dotson

In the meantime, though, Dotson is expected to sign a four-year, $15.048 million contract ($3.76 million annually) as a first-round pick, according to Spotrac. The deal should be fully-guaranteed before the fifth-year option comes into play after the 2025 season.

 

Round 2 – DL Phidarian Mathis

According to Spotrac, the Alabama product is expected to receive a contract worth $7.506 million total, or $1.876 million per year.

 

Round 3 – RB Brian Robinson Jr.

As a third-round comp pick, Robinson’s contract value sits at $5.044 million, equating to a cost-effective $1.26 million per year. These numbers could loom large in the event Gibson doesn’t last beyond his rookie contract.

 

Round 4 – S Percy Butler

He’ll be playing on a projected $4.449 million deal.

 

Round 5 – QB Sam Howell

Spotrac anticipates the UNC product to sign for $4.021 million ($1.005 annually) with a $361,599 signing bonus and a $759,400 cap hit.

 

Round 5 – TE Cole Turner

Expected to make less than $4 million over the next four years

[Burgold]

A fifth rounder is immediately a multimillionaire. There’s something wrong about that. 

[Warhead36]

4 minutes ago, Burgold said:

A fifth rounder is immediately a multimillionaire. There’s something wrong about that. 

The league makes billions. You rather Snyder keep the money?

[Going Commando]

5 minutes ago, Burgold said:

A fifth rounder is immediately a multimillionaire. There’s something wrong about that. 

Not at all.  Considering how much money the NFL rakes in off the backs of the players, how most never get a second contract, and how exploitative of their labor and talent the NFL model is (a draft where you don't get to choose where you live and work would be unacceptable and unamerican in virtually any other industry, and almost all NFL contracts are optional agreements players have to hope their teams will honor) the players are underpaid.

 

Or do you think the owners deserve an even bigger share of the pie than they already get?

[Koolblue13]

17 minutes ago, Burgold said:

A fifth rounder is immediately a multimillionaire. There’s something wrong about that. 

He's been playing for free to make other people money his entire life and once taxes and vultures get their fill, it's really not much more than a nice car and condo.

[CTskin]

12 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:

I feel like maybe this is going to go like a conversation with Kyrie Irving about whether the earth is round. 
 

We DO have the advantage of hindsight. Also, I’m not sure anyone outside of extreme homers thought the 2019 Skins would be good.
 

Do you literally not think that the QB, WR and running back positions are going to be miles better this year than in 2019? Do you believe that the talent at the skill positions of the 2019 team and the 2022 teams are anywhere close? 

 

Even if the top of the roster talent was close, which it isn’t, the depth is so much astoundingly better now. 
 

I can count one roster error I think Ron really botched. I thought he should have offered more for Stafford and made them outbid us. Still, we paid a lot less for Wentz, and he could really turn out still.  You could argue for Justin Herbert being a miss, but NOBODY said that at the time. 
 

Are there picks and FA moves that I would have preferred? Sure. But to say that this Roster isn’t miles better than the one he inherited seems blind. 

You just don’t get it… last year you would have said our wr corp was miles better than the previous because we added Samuel. Well, how did that actually work out?

 

point being that your 2019 roster review astutely noted how quite a few players were “washed”, but going into that season this board was full of blind optimism… which is exactly what you’re doing right now. Comparing your overly optimistic projections to a hindsight review of an injury ravaged season.

 

as you said, outside of this board no one was high on us in 2019… you do realize no one is high on us now right?

 

Wentz is the only reason why we’ll likely have a better outcome as obviously the qb is the most important position on the field. But overall, it’d take a homer to say this roster is miles better… 

[dswerdlw]

If we're considerably better this season, the two biggest reasons for our improvement will be Wentz and a weak schedule. I'm happy with our draft class, and, collectively, those players will makes us better, but I doubt that most of those rookies will have an obvious, individual effect on the team's performance this year. Perhaps Robinson has the best chance of standing out, as he's likely to touch the ball more than Dotson or Turner, two players who most believe will emerge as solid contributors. Dotson has the best chance of making other players better, as defenses will need to plan for his speed, craftiness, and versatility -- which will help Wentz, free up Mclaurin a bit, and allow Samuel to get some good opportunities. Mathis could also help our linebackers stay clean to the ball. Perhaps Butler or Holmes will surprise in the way that Curl surprised, but I imagine they're more likely to be on the St. Juste level (free of injuries, one hopes). Chris Paul is a very intelligent and physically gifted prospect who will benefit from Matsko's coaching, but probably won't see the field much this year.  Sam Howell was the one big swing at a home run. I don't mind taking that swing in the fifth round. It was a solid, blue-collar draft with sneaky upside. In the end, though, the upcoming season is mostly about Wentz. Given our weak schedule, I'm cautiously optimistic.

[CommanderInTheRye]

On 5/6/2022 at 4:58 PM, Voice_of_Reason said:

Who's perceived value?  That's the problem. 

 

The "perceived value" is created by the draft analysts based on a very few criteria: watching film and looking at measurables.  A few will attend some pro-days. Teams do SO MUCH MORE research, with interview, medicals, scheme fit, team needs, coaches interviews, other research, etc.  There is just no way that the media board is going to be anywhere near as sophisticated as ANY of the 32 team boards. So why are we taking THAT as the baseline, when it's a MUCH, MUCH, MUCH more rudimentary evaluation than ANY team does?

 

Even the aggregate board is completely wonky.  Again I point to the QBs to illustrate how far off, just for one position, all of the pundits were to what the entire NFL thought of position.  

 

The fact is there is no such thing as perceived value outside of the evaluations of the 32 teams.  What the media folks spin up is, essentially, meaningless.  They have absolutely no way of knowing what the teams are thinking, and what the value of the players are to the teams. 

 

Now, if you could somehow get all 32 teams to send in their boards anonymously, and then aggregated them, and then compare against THAT, now THAT would be FASCINATING.  AND relevant.  But we don't have that.  And we never will.  So compared against a rudimentary board put together by a bunch of folks who don't have jobs doing it for real for teams?  Eh, I am not going to consider that as gospel.  

 

This whole cottage industry was created by Mel Kiper.  And he's an ****ing genius. (And I like Mel.)  But it literally means nothing.  I keep coming back to this, the best of Mel was when he went on a tirade in 1994 because the Colts picked an OLB at #2, and they should have drafted Trent Dilfer, according to his board, and the QB on the colts was John Harbaugh.  Well, the GM Bill Tobin fired back, "who the hell is Mel Kiper anyway?" Mel Kiper literally went to go die on the Trent Dilfer hill.  Guess what happened Harbaugh won comeback player of the year in 1995, and the Colts were in the AFC Championship game.  And almost beat the Steelers. And Trent flamed out with the Bucs, and then won a SB as possibly the weakest link on a team with one of the top 3 (at WORST) defenses in the history of the league.

 

There is no consensus perceived value.  The GMs have all come out and said the draft boards are all different. Beane said it, the GM in Baltimore.  

 

Keim also said it well, "it's easy to win the draft.  Just go pick whoever is projected at that spot, and the media will love it."

 

I couldn't care less WHAT the media likes or doesn't like the day after the draft.  I appreciate the time and effort they put in to educate us on the players.  The mocks are fun, the big-boards are fun, but in they end, they are eye-candy.  Completely meaningless and very pointless.  

 

8 picks is irrelevant.  The question is when you are picking, and when you are picking again, absent a trade.  And who's magic media board has Dotson slotted 8 spots lower?  Who cares?  Just about everybody had Dotson as a first round selection.  A bunch of folks said he basically went where they thought he was going to go-ish.  It's possible the trade-up scenario was either KC or GB who were looking to come to TAKE Dotson.  

 

There is absolutely no way to know when a player is going to actually drop in the draft.  The players don't know, the media doesn't know, and the agents sure as **** don't know because not even idiot Vinny Cerrato would tell an agent the team's plans because the agent would simply leverage that information with another team.  (And if they didn't, they wouldn't be doing their jobs.)

 

Literally nobody but the people who put together the 32 boards know how they rank the players.

 

The media is creating a TV/Radio/Podcast show for IT'S benefit.  Because it's good entertainment.  And people like it, and I'm totally cool with that. I like it. 

 

But they KNOW nothing.  Their evaluations are just as valid as any fan watching film and getting a man-crush. 

 

There is no burden of proof on the FO or organization to prove that Nystrom is an arrogant, self absorbed, small minded ass hat.  He was so butt hurt that his QB 1 (WIllis), who he has been bandying about as the next great thing since after the Senior Bowl (and on his appearance on Galdi after the senior bold he did some pea****ing around because Willis had a good few days even then), got picked in the 3rd round, it was funny.  He said something "I've never been so sure I was right and the NFL was wrong about a player as I am with Malik Willis, since Lamar Jackson." Except the NFL wasn't wrong about Lamar, the Ravens traded UP to get him.  He thought he should go earlier.  Fine, whatever, he still went in the first round, and a team valued him enough to trade up, so I'm not sure how "the NFL was wrong."

 

He literally knows nothing.  He does his evaluation, which is, at best, flawed, and then he trashes teams for being far away from his evaluation.  

 

Of all of the bozo's I've listened to, he's by far the most arrogant and by far the one who seems to be loud wrong a lot.  But hey, being loud sells.  

 

There is no such thing as a reach.  It was invented by Mel Kiper's hairspray.  You have NO IDEA when a player is going to be picked.  NONE. Mel doesn't know.  Todd doesn't know.  Thor doesn't know.  Nobody knows.  For all we know, KC/GB trades up to 17 and takes him. And you know what the narrative would have been (maybe not by the idiot Thor, but by others) "KC/GB really liked the guy, he was the highest remaining receiver on the board, they had to go get him before somebody else did.  Great job.  Good organizations."

 

 So you trust your board, and you pick the player you want to pick when you have the opportunity.

 

The "burden of proof" will be on Sundays (and Mondays and Thursdays.)  If they win, great.  

 

But all this useless teeth mashing and negativity, based on Thor Freaking Nystrom and the rest of the folks who just want to absolutely trash everything is getting so old.  

 

Anybody who grades or forms a strong opinion of a a draft class the minute after it's complete has absolutely, completely, totally, and utterly no idea what the hell they are doing. I get the media folks have to do it because it is how they fill content and generates discussion.

 

You can't judge a draft class until it has played games, and probably at least 2 years of games.

 

Saying this is the worst draft class before they have ever stepped on the field is complete lunacy.  There is no way to know ANYTHING.

 

Here's something fun:  Here is a review of the Seattle Draft in 2012:

 

The players they drafted with the first 3 picks?

Bruce Irvin

Bobby Wagner

Russell Wilson

 

Guess what: Seattle, at that point, is kidnof like where we are now.  They hadn't had success in ages.  Everybody wanted to hate on them for everything.  They had what turned out to be a GREAT draft, everybody hated it.  And it wasn't just one guy.  In the cumulative grades, they ranked 30th when you combined like 10-15 different prognosticators.  

 

Literally nobody knows anything about anything after the draft.  

 

And I will say complaining of grades tiresome also, especially when they are pointless.  

 

Since there is no baseline (and the media contrived baseline is pointless and meaningless because it's only about 1/4 of the evaluation teams do, and is intended for entertainment purposes only), there are no reaches, there really is no "value picks" and grades are meaningless.

 

FWIW, the way I look at a draft, is I look individually at the players which were selected, I listen to people who break them down (Logan Paulsen did a great job of it on one of the Keim podcasts, Cooley did Dotson and Howell on a Sheehan podcast), and then I think about how those players make the team better.

 

If it doesn't look like they are making the team better, then I don't so much like the pick.

 

If I understand the logic behind the pick, and it's a good player, then I like the pick.

 

And everything else is useless noise.

 

Dotson - pro ready, can contribute immediately.  A little concerned about the size, but otherwise fine.  Liked the pick.

Mathis - I like that he's a beast in the middle who can keep LBs clean, and can play over the nose, which Payne does not do well.  Needs to develop more as a pass rush guy, but he should be a really good rotational guy.  (I also don't care MI and Settle are gone.  So, they needed a good guy, and they got one.)

Robinson - I loved the pick, and I HOPE he ends up with more carries than Gibson.  

Butler - They want to tell me he can play Buffalo Nickel and FS.  I am not sure. This one, I want to see, because of the size.  Could they have gone a different direction here?  Sure.  I don't love it but we'll see.

Howell - Cooley was more critical of him than I had expected.  But they need a guy, they got a guy, and at worst he's probably a backup for a while.  In the 5th?  That's fine. 

Turner - Paulsen liked him, thought he was a bit "stiff" at times, though.  We'll see.  Big guy, I think can help with Logan is out, but he's raw.  

*** The other 2, eh, maybe they do something maybe they don't, I don't have the energy to care about 7th round picks.  Or 6th, for that matter, but Paulsen thought Turner could contribute, so I wrote it down.

 

 

 

 

[Koolblue13]

41 minutes ago, CTskin said:

 it’d take a homer to say this roster is miles better… 

I guess CBS is a homer, because they've moved us up to 13

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-power-rankings-broncos-ravens-chargers-among-big-risers-post-draft-rams-stay-no-1-new-team-in-cellar/