The Official ES 2021 Free Agency Thread / Tracker Fitzpatrick, Curtis Samuel, William Jackson, LB Mayo, C Larsen WR Humphries, CB D. Roberts, KR D. Carter , LT Charles Leno, S Bobby McCain signed

[skinny21]

1 hour ago, actorguy1 said:

He's not being talked down to that little after the all pro team.

I don’t disagree, I think it’ll be 14+/year.  However, I think there’s a small chance that the confluence of a potential G heavy FA and low cap ceiling (and the attendant issue of lots of teams not having money) mean a) he could be talked down to closer to 13ish, or b) we let him test the market (while we talk to other Gs agents) and no other team offers in that 14-15 range.  

[duffy]

46 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

I don’t disagree, I think it’ll be 14+/year.  However, I think there’s a small chance that the confluence of a potential G heavy FA and low cap ceiling (and the attendant issue of lots of teams not having money) mean a) he could be talked down to closer to 13ish, or b) we let him test the market (while we talk to other Gs agents) and no other team offers in that 14-15 range.  

This is how I would approach it. 

I like Scherff, but to me, the smart move is to let the market determine his value now that there's likely other options from which to choose. 

[TheShredder]

The best ability being availability, you can compare the additional money spent on the guys playing in the 14 games Scherff missed during his last contract vs a guy like Zeitler who only missed 1 game in that span.  Average out the difference in performance and Zeitler was more valuable through the contract.  Should be interesting to see how they view comparisons as this second tag looms.

[skinny21]

1 hour ago, TheShredder said:

The best ability being availability, you can compare the additional money spent on the guys playing in the 14 games Scherff missed during his last contract vs a guy like Zeitler who only missed 1 game in that span.  Average out the difference in performance and Zeitler was more valuable through the contract.  Should be interesting to see how they view comparisons as this second tag looms.

It’s interesting.  In theory, you’d have to factor Scherff’s production, the drop from Scherff to his backup, and then add the two to compare to Zeitler.  Then you have to factor in how much impact Scherff (and his backup, and Zeitler) had on the rest of the offense (or rather, respective offenses, and, if we’re trying to do this whole hog, how the offense performance affected the respective Ds).  Of course, it’s football, so despite the myriad stats tracked, you just can’t qualify all those separate parts and their interactions.  Suffice to say, I have no idea what the right answer is, but 1) I like the idea of rewarding our own, particularly quality guys (in every sense), and 2) I like the idea of saving a bunch of money to spend elsewhere (or rolling it over), and still having capable play.  In other words, I’m a bit torn on the issue.

 

Reading this back, I’m going to blame the rambling on the fact I just finished reading Sherlock Holmes* to my kids... I should probably self-medicate and retire to my bed.

 

BTW, I just learned what a gasogene is, and now I find myself wanting one.

[Est.1974]

Scherff will get offered more money elsewhere, that’s my gut feeling. This will come down to him really wanting to stick around here, in my opinion. Reality is we can get a replacement at 60-70% the cost, which in turn means you get another player included for the same money.

 

I’ll be happy if he returns. However, I’m comfortable that we have options available if he doesn’t.

[DWinzit]

4 hours ago, skinny21 said:

It’s interesting.  In theory, you’d have to factor Scherff’s production, the drop from Scherff to his backup, and then add the two to compare to Zeitler.  Then you have to factor in how much impact Scherff (and his backup, and Zeitler) had on the rest of the offense (or rather, respective offenses, and, if we’re trying to do this whole hog, how the offense performance affected the respective Ds).
 

I should probably self-medicate and retire to my bed.

BTW, I just learned what a gasogene is, and now I find myself wanting one.

I would add that to your theory that he does improve the play of the rest of the line. IMO the example is Roullier and the contract he just received. He is consistent and always healthy but nothing special, especially when Scherff is out when he get pushed back much more.

 

Perhaps a cognac over a seltzer 

1 hour ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

Scherff will get offered more money elsewhere, that’s my gut feeling. This will come down to him really wanting to stick around here, in my opinion. Reality is we can get a replacement at 60-70% the cost, which in turn means you get another player included for the same money.

 

I’ll be happy if he returns. However, I’m comfortable that we have options available if he doesn’t.

Based on the market, I do not think he will be offered a contract better than WFT. I believe they have a vested interest in him and love what he brings to them team.

I am in agreement with your take on how this negotiations finalize.

[markmills67]

4 hours ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

Scherff will get offered more money elsewhere, that’s my gut feeling. This will come down to him really wanting to stick around here, in my opinion. Reality is we can get a replacement at 60-70% the cost, which in turn means you get another player included for the same money.

 

I’ll be happy if he returns. However, I’m comfortable that we have options available if he doesn’t.

I understand everything you say in this post, but Rivera has said that he wants to re-sign his main free agents, and to not do that with the first Big player will not look good for players who are next. 

[Koolblue13]

The nature of FA means that just about every contract gets inflated. 

 

Scherff is probably going to set the market with or without us. 

 

We will sign him for less than he will make as a FA most likely, but it will be more than other players who are not as good.

 

We have no idea what kind of fit they'd be either and he has a couple years between two guys that look much different without him.

 

It makes little sense to try and save a few million to replace him, then try and get similar production out of a top 10 line.

[Est.1974]

1 hour ago, markmills67 said:

I understand everything you say in this post, but Rivera has said that he wants to re-sign his main free agents, and to not do that with the first Big player will not look good for players who are next. 

I’ll start by repeating that I’d really like Scherff back. However, the move still need to make some business sense when looking to build a complete roster. 
 

In addition, making Scherff the highest paid guard in the league when he is turning 30 during the season could be considered a slight risk. Take a look through the top 20 OG contracts, the vast majority are handed out to players at least 2-3 years younger than Scherff is right now. That is actually quite significant when Scherff will command a 4 or 5 year deal. 
 

Roullier got paid. Clearly he is not at the level Scherff is, but it was the first demonstration that we will pay to keep our own. 40mil deal for him is pretty rich money in context.

 

 

[sjinhan]

18 hours ago, actorguy1 said:

Trying not to get anxious about Scherff negotiations. My preferences

1. Sign to LTD averaging ~$15 million 

2. Allowed to become free agent

3. Tag and trade.

4. 2nd Franchise Tag (Do not want, will be upset if this happens)

Guess we will all know better by Tuesday evening. 

 

I still think $15M per year Sherff is too much.  Our run game was never top tier and you do see him get blown up time to time.   There is no tag and trade options because he coils just sign the tag and we will be screwed.

 

like Cousins; we let him walk and we recover a comp 3rd for him next year.

 

We can sign two decent guards for $15 M and we will be a better team.

Also not to mention the recent history of injuries.

[clskinsfan]

5 hours ago, DWinzit said:

I would add that to your theory that he does improve the play of the rest of the line. IMO the example is Roullier and the contract he just received. He is consistent and always healthy but nothing special, especially when Scherff is out when he get pushed back much more.

 

Perhaps a cognac over a seltzer 

Based on the market, I do not think he will be offered a contract better than WFT. I believe they have a vested interest in him and love what he brings to them team.

I am in agreement with your take on how this negotiations finalize.

I disagree. Roullier has grown into one of the leagues best centers. He put in the work and improved every single season. That is exactly the guy you want to reward with an extension. And the price was pretty fair for a top tier center at 10 mill per year IMO. 

[Ball Security]

1 hour ago, sjinhan said:

I still think $15M per year Sherff is too much.  Our run game was never top tier and you do see him get blown up time to time.   There is no tag and trade options because he coils just sign the tag and we will be screwed.

 

like Cousins; we let him walk and we recover a comp 3rd for him next year.

 

We can sign two decent guards for $15 M and we will be a better team.

Also not to mention the recent history of injuries.

The only way we get draft compensation is if we are passive with the rest of FA.  Which I don’t think we will be.  Not this offseason.

[skinny21]

10 minutes ago, Ball Security said:

The only way we get draft compensation is if we are passive with the rest of FA.  Which I don’t think we will be.  Not this offseason.

Unless maybe we avoid big contracts (as in, roughly equivalent to whatever Scherff gets), right?  Doubt that will be the case of course, though I guess there’s a chance we sign guys at 10mil or less? 

Kind of hate the opacity of the comp pick formula.  

 

 

[Ball Security]

Just now, skinny21 said:

Unless maybe we avoid big contracts (as in, roughly equivalent to whatever Scherff gets), right?  Doubt that will be the case of course, though I guess there’s a chance we sign guys at 10mil or less? 

Kind of hate the opacity of the comp pick formula.  

 

 

Yeah, it could happen.  And with the larger amount of cuts, you have more players to choose from.  But then we wouldn’t be getting guys like David, Robinson, Samuel, Davis, Smith, etc.

[Est.1974]

I’m all in favour of re-signing our own.

 

However, that still needs to be a sound decision. This free agency period is going to be loaded with talent. Teams like the Jags and Jets are likely to overpay to secure 2/3 big names each. I could see the Jags liking high quality OL especially, to protect Lawrence, maybe even Scherff.

 

But we should be able to add 3 or 4 very good FAs this year. We should get a lot better.

[mistertim]

I'd love to re-sign Scherff but I'm also a bit worried about how much he'll ask for...and the fact that he had a really good year after IMO being decent but not amazing is going to factor into that. Him being a first team All-Pro now is going to 100% be a huge factor. He can legit say he is in the Quenton Nelson echelon of Guard without anyone dismissing it and can look to be paid like it. I still personally don't think he's quite a top 3 guy, but there's no doubting he had a good season and earned some accolades.

[skinny21]

43 minutes ago, Ball Security said:

Yeah, it could happen.  And with the larger amount of cuts, you have more players to choose from.  But then we wouldn’t be getting guys like David, Robinson, Samuel, Davis, Smith, etc.

Indeed.  I’ve been operating under the assumption that we sign a higher priced WR and LB, even if we can’t land Robinson or David, so this is sort of new territory for me.  I wonder if we might wind up signing multiple guys with upside instead - backer, wr, corner (maybe two), fs, etc. - a couple/few of them closer to the 8-10mil range, some of them more like 4-6.

[Koolblue13]

We're going to end up with a lot invested in our O and D lines over the forseable future and I am totally great with that. It happens to a lot of the better teams.

[carex]

we could try to get in the comp pick game by focusing on guys who were cut for cap reasons

[Est.1974]

Would Denzel Perryman generate interest here ??

[JSSkinz]

I think we should be coaching up young guards and spending our money at LT, RT, and C.  There's not a G in the league worth $15M per year but I would be ok with it if we we're dominant on that right side but were not, we're not dominant or even consistent at anything related to running the football.

Edited March 7, 2021 by JSSkinz

[@DCGoldPants]

13 minutes ago, JSSkinz said:

I think we should be coaching up young guards and spending our money at LT, RT, and C.  There's not a G in the league worth $15M per year but I would be ok with it if we we're dominant on that right side but were not, we're not dominant or even consistent at anything related to running the football.

The Tackle market is terrible in free agency. Need to upgrade that spot for whoever is QB. Draft seems best option and as unexciting as it would be. One drafted at 19 would be a day 1 starter. 

[Dark Acre]

6 hours ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

Roullier got paid. Clearly he is not at the level Scherff is, but it was the first demonstration that we will pay to keep our own. 40mil deal for him is pretty rich money in context.

Scherff doesn't snap the ball.  That's got to be something not every lineman can do, like catcher in baseball.  You take less offensive prowess with a guy who can squat in the dirt, catch 95+ mph fastballs, and jump to his feet to throw a runner out at 2nd.  If the draft is deep in OL, let Scherff make his billions elsewhere and take a G in the 3rd round.  The $ Scherff wants could net us some competent linebacking which would enable Rivera to focus on the O in the draft.

[DWinzit]

57 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

Would Denzel Perryman generate interest here ??

a decade ago yes. He is a really good MLB but in this day in age he is athletically too limited in coverage

[Malapropismic Depository]

I have no new Free Agency news to report, because my twitter feed is almost entirely about the LHW UFC Champion