Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[Burgundy Yoda]

41 minutes ago, 86 Snyder said:

 

His first read is always open, clean pocket every throw, isn't mobile, can't play off schedule.  He throws a nice ball, that's it.  He's not a leader, zero presence off the field.  This look like a good NFL quarterback to you?  It's not Varsity Blues FFS.

 

 

What an awful take on Mac Jones lol. The guy goes through a ton of reads in his games, more than Tua did at Alabama. He's also unquestionably considered a really good leader. Judging players shirtless doesn't get you very far, I mean look at Dwayne Haskins, got lean, worked off all that body fat and turned into a pro-bowler didn't he? 

[Conn]

It’s 2021. I’m struggling to think of a prospect who was a statue that has developed well in this recent NFL reality. Even Burrow and Herbert can move. That extra dimension is huge, even if a guy isn’t a freak like Jackson, Murray, or Watson. 

Edited February 26, 2021 by ConnSKINS26

[RWJ]

23 minutes ago, 86 Snyder said:

 

I guess I could fall in love with every single quarterback under the sun for 5 to 63 arbitrary hours....

 

Feel free to ping me about this in future.  He's heavy Nate Sudfield and the heavy is measured by doughnuts.

Tell you what.  Let's agree to disagree on THIS QB.  Sound like a plan.

[PartyPosse]

I admit it’s harder to grade a qb that plays with that much talent around him but I said the same about Burrow and he looked every bit the part.

[86 Snyder]

5 minutes ago, PartyPosse said:

I admit it’s harder to grade a qb that plays with that much talent around him but I said the same about Burrow and he looked every bit the part.

 

Burrow is a modern quarterback who can move around and make plays off schedule.  Mac Jones ate Drew Bledsoe for breakfast and throws from his cement block.

 

Look, I'm being hyperbolic to make a point here, but he lacks almost every trait you look for at the position other than accuracy.  And that's a big one, no doubt, but its damn hard to count his accuracy as some supertrait that will overwhelm the lack of traits because he faces so little pressure and is surrounded by NFL talent at the skill positions.  And yes, Burrow had that as well, but you could SEE the traits and that he was actually driving the engine rather than just sitting back and making soft tosses.  He *worked* that pocket for drip of opportunity it held and turned nothing into something over and over again.  And leadership??  Ok we will need to agree to disagree on that one.  He's just along for the ride.  And yes I saw Devonta's comments comparing him and Tua...of course he rides with Mac, he won the Heisman because he targeted him 427 times.

Edited February 26, 2021 by 86 Snyder

[86 Snyder]

16 minutes ago, Burgundy Yoda said:

What an awful take on Mac Jones lol. The guy goes through a ton of reads in his games, more than Tua did at Alabama. He's also unquestionably considered a really good leader. Judging players shirtless doesn't get you very far, I mean look at Dwayne Haskins, got lean, worked off all that body fat and turned into a pro-bowler didn't he? 

 

Getting lean doesn't necessarilly get you anywhere, but being out of shape will definitely hold you back.  QB1 is so much more than what happens between the lines.  Intangibles are overlooked on the regular and its always in hindsight people start to cite them as reasons guys didn't pan out.  Cough *Haskins* cough.

[Burgundy Yoda]

40 minutes ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

It’s 2021. I’m struggling to think of a prospect who was a statue that has developed well in this recent NFL reality. Even Burrow and Herbert can move. That extra dimension is huge, even if a guy isn’t a freak like Jackson, Murray, or Watson. 

Baker Mayfield runs a 4.81, Josh Allen ran a 4.76. Mac Jones might be a 10th of a second slower than Josh Allen, drafting QBs that can run is just the flavor of the month. Arm talent will always be superior to what you can do with your legs as a QB. 

Edited February 26, 2021 by Burgundy Yoda

[Conn]

1 minute ago, Burgundy Yoda said:

Baker Mayfield runs a 4.81, Josh Allen ran a 4.76. Mac Jones might be a 10th of a second slower than Josh Allen, drafting QBs that can run is just the flavor of the month. Arm talent will always be superior to what you can do with your legs as a QB. 

Those numbers don’t matter, those are two mobile QBs you named and it was always a part of their game. Allen especially is hugely mobile, but it’s also a cornerstone of Mayfield’s game. Citing 40 times for guys we have tons of NFL tape on is kinda disingenuous to get the outcome you want in this conversation, even though it makes no sense given you know they can move. 
 

Jones isn’t mobile in the same way that Teddy B isn’t and Tua isn’t, regardless of what their 40 times are. It’s either a part of a guy’s game or it isn’t, and from what we’ve seen in recent years, prospects that can’t move a little (again—they don’t need to be Lamar Jackson or even close) haven’t developed well. Could be a coincidence, but naming two mobile guys  who happened to have unimpressive 40 times is a silly argument against it.

 

I don’t have some hugely opinionated, set in stone stance against Jones either btw. I simply stated that in recent history pocket guys without at least a healthy dash of mobility to their game haven’t developed into franchise QBs.

[Burgundy Yoda]

2 minutes ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

Those numbers don’t matter, those are two mobile QBs you named and it was always a part of their game. Allen especially is hugely mobile, but it’s also a cornerstone of Mayfield’s game. Citing 40 times for guys we have tons of NFL tape on is kinda disingenuous to get the outcome you want in this conversation, even though it makes no sense given you know they can move. 
 

Jones isn’t mobile in the same way that Teddy B isn’t and Tua isn’t, regardless of what their 40 times are. It’s either a part of a guy’s game or it isn’t, and from what we’ve seen in recent years, prospects that can’t move a little (again—they don’t need to be Lamar Jackson or even close) haven’t developed well. Could be a coincidence, but naming two mobile guys  who happened to have unimpressive 40 times is a silly argument against it.

 

I don’t have some hugely opinionated, set in stone stance against Jones either btw. I simply stated that in recent history pocket guys without at least a healthy dash of mobility to their game haven’t developed into franchise QBs.

I'm just providing data, what your eyes reveal may be different than the numbers show. I see offenses that called for a ton more rollouts than what Alabama runs. Jones didn't need to add mobility to his game whatsoever, his line blocked fantastic for him all season, and when he did get pressured, he moved around the pocket with ease. Why run around like a chicken with your head cut off if you can make the throws and deliver them to open receivers? I think you might be underestimating his athletic ability a touch though. 

 

You can't sit here and tell me that if Tom Brady came into the league in 2021 that he wouldn't be successful because he isn't mobile, I will argue against that every single time. Mobility is nothing but a plus, it is not a trait that a QB HAS to have and never will be for the quarterback position. It definitely helps buy time in the pocket but sometimes mobility can also lead to QBs taking a ton of unnecessary sacks because sometimes they want to play hero ball and avoid the pocket. That's a completely different topic though.

 

I think all we're seeing QBs groomed to be faster now, and more of them coming out are focusing on foot-speed than they used to, I just see it as a trend. It's a positive trend though, but it doesn't mean Mac Jones won't succeed in the NFL. 

[Skinsinparadise]

Not that YPA is the definitive stat as for pushing the ball down the field but its certainly a key one.  Going through it you could see that Big Ben for example fit the narrative about him which is he is throwing mostly short, ditto Dalton.  Fitzpatrick among the most aggressive.

[DWinzit]

Sure looks funny seeing Kirk at the top ahead of Mahomes and Rodgers.

 

And then there's Sam holding everyone's jocks

[Skinsinparadise]

10 hours ago, RWJ said:

I put it out there a long time ago.  Yes, he plays on a talented team, No. 1 in the Country but he has the "it" factor to me mentally and enough skills to be a very good QB and I think fits out scheme the best.  He's not fast be he knows when to get rid of the ball, doesn't stare down WRs and can move out of the pocket to get extra time to deliver the strike.  

 

I've posted a ton on him on the draft thread, positive and negative.  More positive than negative. Relatively speaking I am pro Mac Jones since I wouldn't hate it if they drafted him.   He's hard to evaluate as I've said before because he gets bailed out on contested throws and his contested throw accuracy and attempts (as PFF charted) is mediocre and doesn't nearly match Burrow on that count.  But his accuracy with throws in the flat is laser sharp, almost perfect on that front, love how he manipulates safeties with his body language/eyes.  I think his footwork in the pocket as for navigating pressure is good.  My pause about him is he doesn't have any special traits -- arm strength is just OK, and he's not a make throws off script kind of guy either.

 

Mike Lombardi made a point recently about Mac is he might not last in the NFL because he looks like a rare college athlete who doesn't look like he likes to hit the weight room.  The picture that someone posted here of him with his shirt off brings that home to me.   Lombardi implied its not a good sign when an athlete doesn't like to work out.   Maybe if he hits the gym though he could improve his arm strength?  But yeah to me Lombardi is right, he doesn't look like a dude who lifts weights. 

10 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

Sure looks funny seeing Kirk at the top ahead of Mahomes and Rodgers.

 

And then there's Sam holding everyone's jocks

 

I liked Tua in college but the Miami version definitely came off to me super conservative with the ball -- short stuff.   Darnold looked the same to me when I rewatched him recently.  And Alex we know doesn't push the ball down the field much.  Kirk had a crap defense and at times had no choice but to push the ball down the field.  Cam's numbers which were mediocre surprised me, I thought he'd be closer to the bottom.  Fitzpatrick, top 10.  Don't love Fitz but he's my fav of the FA options. 

Edited February 26, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[DWinzit]

 

4 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I liked Tua in college but the Miami version definitely came off to me super conservative with the ball -- short stuff.   Darnold looked the same to me when I rewatched him recently.  And Alex we know doesn't push the ball down the field much.  Kirk had a crap defense and at times had no choice but to push the ball down the field.  Cam's numbers which were mediocre surprised me, I thought he'd be closer to the bottom.  Fitzpatrick, top 10.  Don't love Fitz but he's my fav of the FA options. 

Tua's  play was not as expected but he as a rookie catching up to the speed of the game and reads. If that hip is good I still think he can have a decent future in the NFL.

His counterpart Fitz has always been a bombing machine lol, not shocker there

[bowhunter]

The pudgy shirtless cigar smoking pic somehow make me think of SJ9.

[HigSkin]

I don't know if this is even possible to do this year and suppose they could do something similar maybe using a guy like Scherff (tag/trade) but interesting.

 

 

[Going Commando]

Chicago and Dallas and Las Vegas all on Russell Wilson's list but not his hometown team.  We have fallen far.  Kind of reminds me of the Carmelo Anthony situation where consideration for his wife's career led him to waste his prime on a crap team in New York.

[Thinking Skins]

19 hours ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Per Finlay's words on the show a few minutes ago ... his sources says they're not in on Cam ... hard no ... and that he gets the sense they'll either "go big" or ride it out with what they have while they keep building the team. And I assume the "what they have" does not include Smith.

 

So maybe a mid-round QB. He seems to think Mariota might be in play because of the upside he presents. BUT, the key here was they are building a team for the future, and a Cam Newton type who is a "stop gap" is not an option.

I really hope this is our option. My number one guy in the draft (after the top 4) is Kellen Mond followed by Newman and then Trask or Jones. But I feel like Jones is overhyped and will thus be overdrafted. I think all 4 are in the second tier of QBs of this draft who if surrounded by the right team and right weapons can develop. But Jones is more scary to me than the first three because of his lack of mobility and experience, whereas the other three have one or the other. The fact that they could be available in the third makes them even better options in my opinion. 

 

I just hope our front office feels that way. 

[Chump Bailey]

https://www.nbcsports.com/washington/football-team/one-analyst-says-washington-has-all-russell-wilson-would-want-new-team

 

If Wilson does soon become available on the trade block, Pro Football Focus' Eric Eager thinks Washington would be a destination the quarterback would strongly consider. "What Wilson wants is what Washington has," Eager said on The Sports Junkies on Tuesday.

 

"A great head coach, stability on the coaching staff at least, and he would be playing in front of a great defense, which is what Washington has," Eager said.

 

"Russell Wilson would turn the Washington Football Team not only into the favorites to repeat in the NFC East but a favorite in the NFC," Eager said.

 

 

[Thinking Skins]

16 hours ago, ODU AGGIE said:

I pretty much like this one also. For the most part, you hit the needs with quality personnel and in the right order. I particularly like Eskridge. We would expect him to be a solid slot receiver and return specialist. However, I do question your choice of Newman. I would much rather see that draft position traded for Mariota. I don't see Newman as a particularly good addition to the QB room.

I'm curious to why you say this? Is he a headache or does he have leadership problems? I don't think he has enough attempts and starts to be a high draft pick but I think he has all the talent you'd want. There was a lot of talk of him being up there with the top 4 of this draft. The COVID stuff makes guys like him and Lance a bit tricky because they both had good years in 2019 (Lance was way better than Newman) but it gives the idea that both could have had dominant years this year and been high first rounders. Lance only played one game and looked less like the elite guy he did in 2019 and Newman didn't play. Plus there is the whole thing about Newman leaving Wake Forest for Georgia and potentially being afraid of losing the starting job at GA. But the second part of that is rumor. 

[COWBOY-KILLA-]

58 minutes ago, HigSkin said:

I don't know if this is even possible to do this year and suppose they could do something similar maybe using a guy like Scherff (tag/trade) but interesting.

 

 

I was thinking about this the other day.  Scherff is one of our biggest assets and could be a nice piece to a bigger package either to move up or for a QB. I love BS and wouldn’t move him for just anything so it would have to be a really big deal with what we are getting back. We’d know this was an option if we franchise him I think, because I don’t think we’d extend them trade him, due to the cap. But I honestly don’t know all the machinations on if and how it would work. 

Edited February 26, 2021 by COWBOY-KILLA-

[Thinking Skins]

19 hours ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

Ran it again, and he went R2. I like this one better anyway ...

 

This is interesting. Where do you see the other second tier QBs of this draft going? Trask, Mond, Jones? Is it always second? I remember in 2017 when I was doing these, I'd regularly see Jon Allen drop to 17 but I got tired of it because I thought it was a fluke and people were just not drafting property so I stopped. Then he dropped to us, so maybe they know more than we do. 

[86 Snyder]

7 hours ago, Burgundy Yoda said:

I'm just providing data, what your eyes reveal may be different than the numbers show. I see offenses that called for a ton more rollouts than what Alabama runs. Jones didn't need to add mobility to his game whatsoever, his line blocked fantastic for him all season, and when he did get pressured, he moved around the pocket with ease. Why run around like a chicken with your head cut off if you can make the throws and deliver them to open receivers? I think you might be underestimating his athletic ability a touch though. 

 

You can't sit here and tell me that if Tom Brady came into the league in 2021 that he wouldn't be successful because he isn't mobile, I will argue against that every single time. Mobility is nothing but a plus, it is not a trait that a QB HAS to have and never will be for the quarterback position. It definitely helps buy time in the pocket but sometimes mobility can also lead to QBs taking a ton of unnecessary sacks because sometimes they want to play hero ball and avoid the pocket. That's a completely different topic though.

 

I think all we're seeing QBs groomed to be faster now, and more of them coming out are focusing on foot-speed than they used to, I just see it as a trend. It's a positive trend though, but it doesn't mean Mac Jones won't succeed in the NFL. 

 

No one can ever use Brady as evidence in any argument ever in for the rest of history.  In terms of outlier distance he is approximately three light years from everyone else on a graph.  And Peyton Manning is about two light years so he's off limits too.  

 

Mobility is critical in today's game.  It's possible to succeed without it, but every other skill has to be *incredibly* sharp to compensate.  The only trait that falls in this category for Mac is accuracy.  We have not seen him command the line of scrimmage, perfect presnap reads and audibles, and go through progressions while under heavy pressure.  Maybe he can do it but his processor speed has not been tested near enough to know.  Drafting him is trying to thread a very small needle of prospect type and requires a lot of hope with regard to those unexhibited traits being there just waiting for an opportunity to be showcased.  I'm dubious they are.

[Thinking Skins]

7 hours ago, Burgundy Yoda said:

Baker Mayfield runs a 4.81, Josh Allen ran a 4.76. Mac Jones might be a 10th of a second slower than Josh Allen, drafting QBs that can run is just the flavor of the month. Arm talent will always be superior to what you can do with your legs as a QB. 

Yeah, this is not a good stat. Baker Mayfield had 1082 rushing yards in college. Josh Allen had 767. Running was clearly a part of their game. And it helped them in their development as a QB, we've noted on Allen how he was different from Haskins for just this ability, he could and would run for the first down so many times in games where he didn't think he could make the throw. Not everybody needs to be Cam Newton or Michael Vick to be a good QB but Jones has 42 yards 0.8 yards per attempt. Thats not something I want to build around. It'd be different if his other metrics were off the charts or something but we're talking about a guy at Ala freakin Bama who had the Heisman Trophy winner as his number 1 target, who received over half of the passes from Jones, and as accurate as Jones is, its not like he has a Stafford arm or even a Haskins arm. So really what does he have? Weight room? nah? Film study? I mean he only has 556 attempts so he doesn't have the experience seeing a lot of different defenses, particularly facing the same players or coach a second time after having watched them adjust to him. So I don't see what the big deal with him is. Maybe he'd be somebody I'd look at in the 3rd or 4th, but why is he any better than Greg McElroy? 

 

 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

22 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

This is interesting. Where do you see the other second tier QBs of this draft going? Trask, Mond, Jones? Is it always second? I remember in 2017 when I was doing these, I'd regularly see Jon Allen drop to 17 but I got tired of it because I thought it was a fluke and people were just not drafting property so I stopped. Then he dropped to us, so maybe they know more than we do. 

 

It's a crap-shoot at this stage. Just fun to do. If you go over to FanSpeak, they let you pick from 4-5 Big Boards. Depending on which one you pick, you'll get different results. TheDraftNetwork uses their big board, which gives different results. The PFF mock draft simulator uses PFF big board. So again, a different set of results.

 

The TDN board has Trey Lance falling to #19 about 50% of the time. It also rarely has the Panthers taking a QB at #8 unless Justin Fields falls. The 49ers take Lance most of the time. Again, run any other draft board and Lance is gone by #8. So with so many diff. variables it's truly a crapshoot, particularly in the later rounds.

 

Ronnie Perkins is someone I can regularly get in R3 or 4 as a DE. But there's some big boards that have him going late 1st / early 2nd. So again, you can pretty much choose whatever simulator you want to get the results you seek. I have just found the functionality and quality of draft boards on TDN to be the best, with the exception of Trey Lance falling.

Edited February 26, 2021 by JamesMadisonSkins

[86 Snyder]

13 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

Yeah, this is not a good stat. Baker Mayfield had 1082 rushing yards in college. Josh Allen had 767. Running was clearly a part of their game. And it helped them in their development as a QB, we've noted on Allen how he was different from Haskins for just this ability, he could and would run for the first down so many times in games where he didn't think he could make the throw. Not everybody needs to be Cam Newton or Michael Vick to be a good QB but Jones has 42 yards 0.8 yards per attempt. Thats not something I want to build around. It'd be different if his other metrics were off the charts or something but we're talking about a guy at Ala freakin Bama who had the Heisman Trophy winner as his number 1 target, who received over half of the passes from Jones, and as accurate as Jones is, its not like he has a Stafford arm or even a Haskins arm. So really what does he have? Weight room? nah? Film study? I mean he only has 556 attempts so he doesn't have the experience seeing a lot of different defenses, particularly facing the same players or coach a second time after having watched them adjust to him. So I don't see what the big deal with him is. Maybe he'd be somebody I'd look at in the 3rd or 4th, but why is he any better than Greg McElroy? 

 

 

 

And I'll add its not even just raw rushing totals for me...its escapability within the pocket and being able to extend plays and go off script at minimum.  Actual rushing ability beyond the line of scrimmage is a bonus, but at least be able to work that pocket for me.

 

The other end of the spectrum is a guy like Jalen Hurts.  He's a terrific scrambler and does all you want in that department, but he can't really support a high level passing game.  He's too inaccurate and struggles reading defenses.  Lamar falls short on some of this stuff too but his athleticism and pure rushing ability are off the charts and provide adequate compensation to beat  back his short comings.  Hurts does not have that kind of ability.

 

You really need some combination of traits if you're going to make it as a starting NFL qb.  

Edited February 26, 2021 by 86 Snyder