Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[Fat Stupid Loser]

23 minutes ago, LetThePointsSoar said:

 

Agreed. He went toe to toe with a defense that shut DOWN arguably the best QB in the league. 

But is he?  He is certainly great at what he does. In an offense that is great at what it does.  Just wondering if Mahomes would be the Mahomes we now know if he were drafted by anyone else.  Perfect guy for the perfect offense. Doubt he would be the same had Jay drafted him.

[Darrell Green Fan]

11 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

I'm gonna play devils advocate with you on this. When you say "major" upgrade at QB I will say that we may just need a simple upgrade. We won games with a one-legged QB largely because of our defense. If we simply roll Kyle Allen out there and bolster the defense even more I'd say there's a good chance we have a 10 win roster assuming we add a WR in free agency and some upgrades at LB. We are gonna be better next year once we find a guy who we know is competent at QB and that we can win with simply because our roster is gonna be even better and DH is no longer on the team.

You may be right. However all of us are looking for more than 10 wins and an early playoff exit. And the best way to achieve that year after year is with a franchise QB.  The numbers make that perfectly clear.  

[HigSkin]

FWIW...

 

 

[RWJ]

2 minutes ago, HigSkin said:

FWIW...

 

 

IBN is hit and miss.  I heard a 2nd but that was from a small time tweeter who claimed to have inside sources.  Another person echoed his statement of a 2nd as well.  Guess we will see, HigSkin. 

[Skinsinparadise]

15 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

I don't think we have a lot of holes, but the ones we do have are gaping. 

 

I know QB is one of them and I want to address it as badly as you do, but if that was the only elevated position, Rodgers would have multiple rings. Manning wouldn't have left Indy.

 

We need to complete this defense and let it be special and see where it can go.

 

 

The main holes to me are QB, MLB, WR.  No team is stacked everywhere.  And heck yeah all three spots and more can be resolved in an off season.  It's not get a WR or a QB, pick one. Or MLB or QB, pick one.  Or QB or pick 4 spots one or the other.   I think if there is a spot in danger of not being resolved its QB because the option might not be there.  I would be fine with Heinicke if i thought Rivera was but I don't get that impression at least not yet.  

 

Unless we do the Ricky Williams trade for a QB, I go no doubt, zero, that we can upgrade MLB, QB, WR, and more in the same off season.   If we get a QB we aren't forfeiting every pick and all our cap room as some sort of QB sin tax.  

 

I am as enthusiastic as anyone about upgrading WR, MLB as anyone, I posted plenty about those spots in detail on the FA thread.  I posted plenty about O line among other spots on the draft thread.

 

I am just not a supporting cast and game manger wins a SB kind of guy.  I am a supporting cast and a really good QB wins kind of guy and I am more fixated on the QB because that's the hard spot to fill.  My favorite anaology is its finding the James Bond for the James Bond film.  Yeah I want Q and Moneypenny and the Bond girl and the cool villain,  Bond by himself doesn't make the movie but good luck having a blockbuster movie without Bond.  Bond is the key.  

Edited February 8, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[RWJ]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

The main holes to me are QB, MLB, WR.  No team is stacked everywhere.  And heck yeah all three spots and more can be resolved in an off season.  It's not get a WR or a QB, pick one. Or MLB or QB, pick one.  Or QB or pick 4 spots one or the other.   I think if there is a spot in danger of not being resolved its QB because the option might not be there.  I would be fine with Heinicke if i thought Rivera was but I don't get that impression at least not yet.  

 

Unless we do the Ricky Williams trade for a QB, I go no doubt, zero, that we can upgrade MLB, QB, WR, and more in the same off season.   If we get a QB we aren't forfeiting every pick we and all our cap room as some sort of QB sin tax.  

 

I am as enthusiastic as anyone about upgrading WR, MLB as anyone, I posted plenty about those spots in detail on the FA thread.  I posted plenty about O line among other spots on the draft thread.

 

I am just not a supporting cast and game manger wins a SB kind of guy.  I am a supporting cast and a really good QB wins kind of guy and I am more fixated on the QB because that's the hard spot to fill.  My favorite anaology is its finding the James Bond for the James Bond film.  Yeah I want Q and Moneypenny and the Bond girl and the cool villain,  Bond by himself doesn't make the movie but good luck having a blockbuster movie without Bond.  Bond is the key.  

TE, LOT, I'd add to the list too.  You nailed our biggest weaknesses though.

[kingdaddy]

4 minutes ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

You may be right. However all of us are looking for more than 10 wins and an early playoff exit. And the best way to achieve that year after year is with a franchise QB.  The numbers make that perfectly clear.  

For sure, the problem is finding the franchise QB as you know. Maybe we already have the guy? Doubtful,  but who knows. Here's a question for you, do you think Baltimore thinks they have found their QB that will take them to and win the SB? He's an interesting case. Finding the right guy is so difficult....all of us want the franchise, HOF QB....the problem is how do you find one. 

Coaching is where it starts for me and I'm confident in RR, less confident in Turner. The greatest coaches have taken their QB's far.....Bill Walsh, Joe Gibbs, Belichek, etc....these guys identified the right QB's for their systems and won with their guys. Brady, Rypien, Theismann, Montana, Young.....Even Bill Parcells built a system that won wlth QB's like Phil Simms and Jeff Hostetler. I'm confident that RR can take us far, if not all the way, by building this roster and finding the right QB for this team and I don't think it has to be a future hall of famer. Just my opinion. 

[HigSkin]

5 minutes ago, RWJ said:

IBN is hit and miss.  I heard a 2nd but that was from a small time tweeter who claimed to have inside sources.  Another person echoed his statement of a 2nd as well.  Guess we will see, HigSkin. 

 

Seems to be lots of smoke around the issue for sure.

[Skinsinparadise]

Hint for Ron?

 

 

 

1 minute ago, HigSkin said:

 

Seems to be lots of smoke around the issue for sure.

 

I think it was Breer if I recall who said a 2nd and a third or 2nd and a 4th.  Schefter who is often right doubling down on a late first.  

 

There seems to be desperation in the air for QBs.  I am betting they are right and some team overpays for Darnold, I hope its not us. 

[Warhead36]

Market appears way too inefficient to be going after a QB now. I honestly might just wait it out, at the very least take a shot in the draft. No way am I giving up a 1st for Sam freaking Darnold.

[RWJ]

6 minutes ago, HigSkin said:

 

Seems to be lots of smoke around the issue for sure.

Yes.  I went back and looked at Darnold 2020 season.  Poor guy was pressured ALL the time and escaped a lot to make throws on the run.  I am starting to warm to the idea.  I think Zampese is pushing Darnold on RR and Co..  

[Skinsinparadise]

6 minutes ago, RWJ said:

TE, LOT, I'd add to the list too.  You nailed our biggest weaknesses though.

 

Yep.  If we don't give up a first in this draft, I'd put odds they go LT in the draft, Darrisaw (if he drops), Cosmi, etc.  LT is so hard to find in FA and you got to pay up the nose for one.

 

We can use another TE I agree.  But my point is really no team fills their whole off season wish list from the context of solving every weakness.  The key is to fill the big ones and build depth IMO. 

 

And my other point is no matter what we do IMO we will solve or at least seriously attempt to solve a number of key weaknesses this off season regardless of what happens at QB.

 

I'd bet my mortgage that Rivera for example didn't say to the FO guys lets offer the first and third for Stafford but remember if they take the deal we are done this off season. -- sorry guys that means no MLB, no WR, no 2nd TE.  We are done.  Our 2-7th rounders and 35 million dollars in cap become useless.    

 

Clearly, Rivera's goals don't stop and end with QB.  He will address multiple needs regardless if he lands a QB, too. 

[RWJ]

5 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Yep.  If we don't give up a first in this draft, I'd put odds they go LT in the draft, Darrisaw (if he drops), Cosmi, etc.  LT is so hard to find in FA and you got to pay up the nose for one.

 

We can use another TE I agree.  But my point is really no team fills their whole off season wish list from the context of solving every weakness.  The key is to fill the big ones and build depth IMO. 

 

And my other point is no matter what we do IMO we will solve or at least seriously attempt to solve a number of key weaknesses this off season regardless of what happens at QB.

 

I'd bet my mortgage that Rivera for example didn't say to the FO guys lets offer the first and third for Stafford but remember if they take the deal we are done this off season. -- sorry guys that means no MLB, no WR, no 2nd TE.  We are done.  Our 2-7th rounders and 35 million dollars in cap become useless.    

 

Clearly, Rivera's goals don't stop and end with QB.  He will address multiple needs regardless if he lands a QB, too. 

I like and agree with most of what you said but like HigSkin posted.  There seems to be a lot of smoke and possibly a fire growing with Darnold to the WFT.  We wait.  

[Est.1974]

The fact is we are backed into a corner somewhat, it’s clear we are intent on addressing the QB position, but we are not in a great draft slot, and the veteran market is out of control.

 

A month ago I thought a 3rd rounder and an extra conditional pick was fair value for Carr. Now it seems like it’ll be a first and day 2 pick minimum to get him.

 

Darnold - seems like we may just take a calculated flyer/risk. Low salary in 2021, try to keep hold of out first rounder. 
 

Not a great position really.

[HigSkin]

48 minutes ago, RWJ said:

Yes.  I went back and looked at Darnold 2020 season.  Poor guy was pressured ALL the time and escaped a lot to make throws on the run.  I am starting to warm to the idea.  I think Zampese is pushing Darnold on RR and Co..  

 

I really think there is something to the assistant coaches picking guys to bring in.  Turner wanted Gibson, Hoerner (sp?) wanted Logan Thomas and maybe Zampese wants Darnold.  Who knows but it seems like Ron is allowing his assistants to have a lot of input on selections.

 

 

Edited February 8, 2021 by HigSkin

[Ruzious]

2 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

The fact is we are backed into a corner somewhat, it’s clear we are intent on addressing the QB position, but we are not in a great draft slot, and the veteran market is out of control.

 

A month ago I thought a 3rd rounder and an extra conditional pick was fair value for Carr. Now it seems like it’ll be a first and day 2 pick minimum to get him.

 

Darnold - seems like we may just take a calculated flyer/risk. Low salary in 2021, try to keep hold of out first rounder. 
 

Not a great position really.

I wouldn't pay more than our later 3rd rounder for Darnold.  The best thing about him might be that he's durable.  All 3 of Alex Smith, Allen, and Taylor have durability issues, and we lack a dominant O-line.  

[RWJ]

5 minutes ago, HigSkin said:

 

I really think there is something to the assistant coaches picking guys to bring in.  Turner wanted Gibson, Hoerner (sp?) wanted Logan Thomas and maybe Zampese wants Darnold.  Who knows but it seems like Ron is allowing his assistance to have a lot of input on selections.

 

 

This is good.  No Micro managing.    The way it should be done when you have a QB coach, especially Zampese who's made his mark on turning CFB QBs into good NFL QBs.  

[Thinking Skins]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/whos-the-best-quarterback-from-the-much-hyped-2018-draft-class/

 

Who’s The Best Quarterback From The Much-Hyped 2018 Draft Class?

 

• In 2018, Baker Mayfield took over starting duties in Cleveland from Tyrod Taylor after Taylor left a Week 3 game against the New York Jets with a concussion. (A young, first-round QB taking over for Taylor and then never leaving has become a familiar story for the beleaguered Chargers quarterback.) Mayfield went on to set the rookie touchdown passing record en route to a 6-7 record as a starter.
• 2019 was Lamar Jackson’s year. He captivated the NFL with his athleticism, rushing for a single-season quarterback record and earning league MVP honors while leading the Baltimore Ravens to a 13-2 record in games he started.
• This season began with Josh Allen playing near-elite football. And while he’s cooled off since the Buffalo Bills’ 4-0 start to the season, losing two straight games heading into Week 7, Allen has surpassed Mayfield in Total Quarterback Rating (QBR) over their careers. Allen now places second among the four starting QBs from the ’18 draft class by that measure, behind only Jackson.
• Despite being taken with the third overall pick, Sam Darnold of the New York Jets is the only QB in the group to have not enjoyed a moment — however brief — in which he was performing well enough to be considered the top quarterback in the draft class. Darnold currently sits last in career QBR among the four 2018 draftees, with a rating of just 46.2 through Week 6.

and later

 

If Darnold actually is more athletic than Allen, he hasn’t shown it yet. So far in his career, Allen is averaging 37.8 rushing yards per game on scrambles and designed runs, nearly four times as many as Darnold’s 10.6 yards per game, through Week 6 of 2020. And their career sack rates are nearly identical, at 7 percent for Darnold and 7.1 percent for Allen.

Teams take great pains to try to quantify prospects’ general athleticism each year at the combine in Indianapolis. That Jackson’s obvious athleticism was held against him as a QB prospect and Allen’s relative athleticism compared to Darnold was missed entirely suggests that even the most straightforward evaluations of QB play are fraught with error.

But the most common fault scouts and coaches found with these QBs was their accuracy. One coordinator summed up the feeling of many in the draft analytics community when he pointed out that you can’t teach accuracy, and this truism was especially damning for Allen’s pro prospects. “You’re not going to fix that in 10 weeks or two years,” the coordinator said of Allen. “If you’re not accurate, you’re not accurate. There’s an element of processing and anticipation that I think he lacks. But I think he’s got a big arm and somebody’s going to over-draft the guy because of that.”

 

[RWJ]

2 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/whos-the-best-quarterback-from-the-much-hyped-2018-draft-class/

 

Who’s The Best Quarterback From The Much-Hyped 2018 Draft Class?

 

• In 2018, Baker Mayfield took over starting duties in Cleveland from Tyrod Taylor after Taylor left a Week 3 game against the New York Jets with a concussion. (A young, first-round QB taking over for Taylor and then never leaving has become a familiar story for the beleaguered Chargers quarterback.) Mayfield went on to set the rookie touchdown passing record en route to a 6-7 record as a starter.
• 2019 was Lamar Jackson’s year. He captivated the NFL with his athleticism, rushing for a single-season quarterback record and earning league MVP honors while leading the Baltimore Ravens to a 13-2 record in games he started.
• This season began with Josh Allen playing near-elite football. And while he’s cooled off since the Buffalo Bills’ 4-0 start to the season, losing two straight games heading into Week 7, Allen has surpassed Mayfield in Total Quarterback Rating (QBR) over their careers. Allen now places second among the four starting QBs from the ’18 draft class by that measure, behind only Jackson.
• Despite being taken with the third overall pick, Sam Darnold of the New York Jets is the only QB in the group to have not enjoyed a moment — however brief — in which he was performing well enough to be considered the top quarterback in the draft class. Darnold currently sits last in career QBR among the four 2018 draftees, with a rating of just 46.2 through Week 6.

and later

 

If Darnold actually is more athletic than Allen, he hasn’t shown it yet. So far in his career, Allen is averaging 37.8 rushing yards per game on scrambles and designed runs, nearly four times as many as Darnold’s 10.6 yards per game, through Week 6 of 2020. And their career sack rates are nearly identical, at 7 percent for Darnold and 7.1 percent for Allen.

Teams take great pains to try to quantify prospects’ general athleticism each year at the combine in Indianapolis. That Jackson’s obvious athleticism was held against him as a QB prospect and Allen’s relative athleticism compared to Darnold was missed entirely suggests that even the most straightforward evaluations of QB play are fraught with error.

But the most common fault scouts and coaches found with these QBs was their accuracy. One coordinator summed up the feeling of many in the draft analytics community when he pointed out that you can’t teach accuracy, and this truism was especially damning for Allen’s pro prospects. “You’re not going to fix that in 10 weeks or two years,” the coordinator said of Allen. “If you’re not accurate, you’re not accurate. There’s an element of processing and anticipation that I think he lacks. But I think he’s got a big arm and somebody’s going to over-draft the guy because of that.”

Darnold out of ALL 3 has had the worst OL.  More I see; more I like of him.  He's had no time to throw the ball in NY.  He's been running for his life since he's been there.  Look at the tape.  This has caused a lot of his issues.  I hope we trade for him.  I was wrong about the guy after studying  and watching his film.  I truly hope we trade for him.  

[FootballZombie]

57 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

I wonder how many teams have Heinicke on their list of options

 

Dude will be a RFA, and I'm not so sure we will pay him enough to require another team to pay a high draft pick as tender. (We would have to offer him about 3.5M)

 

That would give us right of first refusal, and that's about it.

 

 

That being said, this dude is not going to be a hot commodity with people banging down his door. Nobody is jones-ing to bring this guy in especially if they have to dish out a pick.

Unless we do something drastic at QB, he will be back next year. We will easily be able to match any contract offered as no one will offer a deal that had any significant money involved.

[Skinsinparadise]

I'd add, the power of a franchise QB can help get that supporting cast at least on offense.    Keim said agents flat out told him that the QB in house can influence their clients decisions.  Granted money speaks louder but its not unusual for the money being equal or close enough.  Then the tipping point can be....

 

 

 

Edited February 8, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Inigo Montoya]

I watched 2019 highlights, Darnolds mechanics seem WAY off, throwing off back foot and weird scrambling ability... maybe I’m missing something. And I hate A Gase and think he ruins teams, but I’m not seeing a reclamation project  here 

[Thinking Skins]

1 minute ago, RWJ said:

Darnold out of ALL 3 has had the worst OL.  More I see; more I like of him.  He's had no time to throw the ball in NY.  He's been running for his life since he's been there.  Look at the tape.  This has caused a lot of his issues.  I hope we trade for him.  I was wrong about the guy after studying  and watching his film.  I truly hope we trade for him.  

I'd like to believe its that simple, but people in this thread are calling him Patrick Ramsey. I disagree because Darnold was supposed to be athletic and he's not been showing it. He has been getting sacked so badly because he's not mobile as advertised. So unlike Allen who was also inaccurate but was able to buy time and make plays with his mobility, we didn't see that with Darnold. He has gotten better in terms of the number of bad passes he's throwing but I'm just not seeing the potential there. Maybe for a low draft pick but I'd much rather sign a Tribusky or draft a Mond. 

[Inigo Montoya]

I’d rather gamble on Mariota honestly, a 2nd rounder probably gets him with their cap situation 

[Skinsinparadise]

9 minutes ago, RWJ said:

Darnold out of ALL 3 has had the worst OL.  More I see; more I like of him.  He's had no time to throw the ball in NY.  He's been running for his life since he's been there.  Look at the tape.  This has caused a lot of his issues.  I hope we trade for him.  I was wrong about the guy after studying  and watching his film.  I truly hope we trade for him.  

 

So you've gone from yesterday from being he's not worth even a 7th rounder to now he's the dude?  Yes his O line wasn't hot, that's certainly true.  But watch him play a full game, including when he passes out of the shot gun where he has time.  His accuracy, decision making, starring at receivers the whole gamut is still on display.

 

PFF tries to account for your point.  Here is his rating from a clean pocket.  We don't even know if WFT likes him unless there is a report I am missing.  We got basically Rapoport for now saying the WFT will look at every QB available so expect them to consider Darnold, too.  If so, I'd hope so.  I don't care what position it is consider every player available and study them. 

 

 

Edited February 8, 2021 by Skinsinparadise