Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[Rufus T Firefly]

59 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

 

No. '83 was much worse. The Chiefs were in this, repeatedly driving, they just couldn't score, and couldn't block to save their lives.

 

The '83 super bowl was a tour de force of errors: Blocked Punt recovered for a TD, Blocked PAT, Missed FG (you should get a ST's award for that troika), Pick 6 seconds before halftime, million yard, "there's no chance he runs around in circles 5 yards behind the los, then accelerates, turns the corner and makes that, holy ----, no, No, NOOOOO! Marcus Allen TD run, and all of this after we annihilated the Rams 51-7, beat Joe Montana w/some ref help in the playoffs, and beat that same Raider team in the regular season (well, minus Marcus Allen). Let's blame the wind though (which apparently was a major problem and a part of the Lester Hayes/Mike Haynes game plan. 

 

'83 was a nightmare where you went from supremely confident, to slowly developing fear, to horror, to inevitably, to emotional collapse. 

 

This game was in doubt for some until the fourth quarter when they finally accepted that yeah, the chiefs weren't going to switch to a short passing game fast enough to cope with the pass blocking issues etc (and the exhaustion of the D).

 

Eh. I took it as he meant the feel of the anticipation and then the outcomes of those games. Both today and Super Bowl 18 felt like flawed teams but with offenses that just couldn't be stopped and so had to win. Then those unstoppable offenses got stopped. Could say the same about Marino in SB 19. Could say this one was the least shocking because the problems (the Line and Mahomes' toe injuries) had to give pause for what would happen. We also knew how good the D they were going against was. 

 

The games were in doubt pretty much the same period of time to the same degree, btw. Allen's run (with the score 28-9) came on the last play of the 3rd, one play after the 4th down stop of Riggo that was really the biggest play of the game. Or deciding play, I should say (Squirek was probably the biggest play).

This one was 31-9 at the end of 3. Any question KC could come back ended at 13:43 when they didn't convert a 4th down. 

Really similar points in the game. 

[Est.1974]

2 hours ago, RWJ said:

Grain of salt tweet:

 

https://twitter.com/Bklyn929/status/1358637106785099777?s=20

Trading a high round pick for Darnold is a tough one to understand. It makes even less sense if we don’t somehow factor into that a conditional/incentivised contract extension. We have to protect that investment. 
 

I could actually see us also drafting a QB in that scenario. 

[RWJ]

Just now, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

Trading a high round pick for Darnold is a tough one to understand. It makes even less sense if we don’t somehow factor into that a conditional/incentivised contract extension. We have to protect that investment. 
 

I could actually see us also drafting a QB in that scenario. 

If this has any relevancy in it at all your right, 74.  We would have to have him sign an extension.  I'm not a Darnold fan.  Doubt it happens but thought I'd post it.

[KDawg]

5 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

As we're watching one future HOF play another future HOF, and when the Final Four this year was 3 Future HOF's and one guy who turned in a HOF season (Josh Allen)???

 

I hope it goes w/o saying that the lines matter, hell I've spent the past few years trying to create a new phrase, "being David Carr'd" to explain why you have to give your franchise QB an OL (and I will note, numerous sources gave the Bucs a fighting chance for one reason going in and that was that the chiefs would be starting only one OL from last year's group due to cluster injuries and covid etc and that issue proved out big time against the Bucs front (and shockingly, that secondary too). Regardless though, QB is the end all be all, period. The Bucs were a burning trash can last year, the only major move they made in the offseason was at QB (and getting Wirfs after a bunch of teams idiotically passed on the top 10 talent), and boom, they win a super bowl? Kinda underlines the point. 

 

 

Yup. End all be all, period.

 

Except for top 5 QB Deshaun Watson who saw his team win 4 games. 

[Darth Tater]

11 hours ago, wit33 said:

Some exceptions who experience inconsistent play early on, but odds are all QBs will suck, even “your favorite” (whoever that is that requires you to speculate). 

And that is why they are idiots. Since all guys are likely to suck, you need to plan on that happening. With few exceptions, for a QB on the market you should not give more than one less than his original pick, especially for a guy who needs to be rehabed.

[Darrell Green Fan]

9 hours ago, KDawg said:

Having the best QB on the planet (current, not of all time) doesn’t matter when you are getting out classed by the other team and defense. Granted, they have a pretty special guy at QB, too. But it’s not all about the QB, folks.

 

I mean it's just so clear, the teams that play at the end are disproportionately quarterbacked by top QBs.  We saw it again this year, we see it most every year.

[KDawg]

3 minutes ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

 

I mean it's just so clear, the teams that play at the end are disproportionately quarterbacked by top QBs.  We saw it again this year, we see it most every year.

I never argued that.

[Darrell Green Fan]

5 hours ago, Malapropismic Depository said:

I don't know what they see in Darnold.

But Carr would probably be my 1st Choice as well (out of the QB's who WOULD NOT cost us a king's ransom).

But why has he fallen out of favor with Gruden ? Anything in particular, or they just want a fresh start ?

 

Gruden has correctly determined that Carr is just not good enough to get them where they want to go.  We should too. 

2 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I never argued that.

 

Well sure you have.  You have pretty consistently claimed you don't need a franchise QB for lasting success, you are more of a great roster and find a QB guy. We've debated this for years.  

[KDawg]

11 minutes ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

 

Gruden has correctly determined that Carr is just not good enough to get them where they want to go.  We should too. 

 

Well sure you have.  You have pretty consistently claimed you don't need a franchise QB for lasting success, you are more of a great roster and find a QB guy. We've debated this for years.  

No I haven’t

 

You don’t need a franchise QB to give yourself a chance. You need a guy in that spot to allow consistency. Where we have always butted heads is the use of resources to acquire one. I don’t believe sending a bunch of high end assets + cap is a sound strategy in acquiring a franchise QB. 
 

I believe you draft one. Including trading up for one. 
 

The second best strategy is building a solid roster and adding a higher end vet FA.

 

Third best is a reasonable trade to acquire one.

 

Last is trading more than two first rounders, some twos and some players. 
 

My point is, and has always been, you can succeed without a franchise QB but not with consistency. But you CAN win without one. But in order to be consistent you need a franchise QB surrounded by talent. 
 

I argue that a great offensive line is the key to winning more than anything else. 

Edited February 8, 2021 by KDawg

[Koolblue13]

20 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I never argued that.

Look, we just have to draft a GOAT in the back half of the draft and we'll be fine. I don't know why our FO ignores this fact.

[Llevron]

Oh how I wish we could trade the pieces needed for Watson and not completely destroy the only strength our team has. 🥺

[Skinsinparadise]

Colts have a beast of an O line, really good running game.  One of the top ranked defenses.    But Rivers wasn't good last season, he was decent though.  From what I am reading they are obsessed with getting a QB and felt that way even before Rivers retired.  Few took them too seriously even with that stacked roster as a SB threat.

 

The Browns are maybe more interersting, they have a good young QB but he's not great.  They have a beast of an O line arguably the best in the league.  They got a super running game too,   Thier defense is up and down.  I don't think most see them as a SB threat either.

 

Tampa had pretty much the same loaded supporting cast in 2019 than it does now.  But they had Winston who arguably might end up the best available in FA this year and went 7-9.  My favorite QB FA (not that I love him, far from it) Ryan Fitzpatrick never took his team to the playoffs ever in his career.  And we are debating on this thread a dude whose peak season was to barely go over 3000 yards, averages more or less 200 yards a game, never had a YPA season even hitting 7, and has a completion percentage under 60.  

 

I do agree with those that you can win in this league with a decent-good kind of QB but only if you have a killer supporting cast -- however, SB is probably a stretch though.   I like Derek Carr but I think he'd fit into this category, a Baker Mayfield type.    He'd likely make the team a 9-7, 10-6 type team sort of like Alex Smith would if he were healthy and in his prime but doubtful he'd push the team to the big dance.  Having said that beggers can't be choosers so I am open to some of these guys but the more I think about it the more I like swinging hard for a player in the draft albeit the odds we can swing up in the draft might be slim considering our draft position and other QB needy teams drafting ahead of us.

 

As for finding our own Russell Wilson, Tom Brady -- its a borderline miracle so I am not betting on miracles and wasting our young team on a wing and a prayer.  For every Russell Wilson.  There are 20:  Cody Keesler, Conner Cook, Cardale Jones, Kevin Hogan, Deshone Kizer, Kyle Lauletta, Jacon Easley, Ryan Finlay, Christian Hackenberg, Garrett Grayson, Davis Webb types and I could go on and on and on and on.   The first round busts are easy to recall because they are big names and people keep bringing them up.  They are high profile busts. 

 

But heck the 2nd-5th round busts can easily be forgetten but the list is crazy staggering.  If you go through them it almost makes you think why even bother because its a needle in the haystack.  I am not opposed to trying but to me that's a lottery ticket, not something to count on, and to be floored on the wild off chance you get it right and find your own Wilson.  The reason why Wilson and Brady get mentioned so much is because thery are unicorns not because it being common. 

Edited February 8, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Colts have a beast of an O line, really good running game.  One of the top ranked defenses.    But Rivers wasn't good last season, he was decent though.  From what I am reading they are obsessed with getting a QB and felt that way even before Rivers retired.  Few took them too seriously even with that stacked roster as a SB threat.

 

The Browns are maybe more interersting, they have a good young QB but he's not great.  They have a beast of an O line arguably the best in the league.  They got a super running game too,   Thier defense is up and down.  I don't think most see them as a SB threat either.

 

Tampa had pretty much the same loaded supporting cast in 2019 than it does now.  But they had Winston who arguably might end up the best available in FA this year and went 7-9.  My favorite QB FA (not that I love him, far from it) Ryan Fitzpatrick never took his team to the playoffs ever in his career.  And we are debating on this thread a dude whose peak season was to barely go over 3000 yards, averages moere or less 200 yards a game, never had a YPA season even hitting 7, and has a completion percentage under 60.  

 

I do agree with those that you can win in this league with a decent-good kind of QB but only if you have a killer supporting cast -- however, SB is probably a stretch though.   I like Derek Carr but I think he'd fit into this category, a Baker Mayfield type.    He'd likely make the team a 9-7, 10-6 type team sort of like Alex Smith would if he were healthy and in his prime but doubtful he'd push the team to the big dance.  Having said that beggers can't be choosers so I am open to some of these guys but the more I think about it the more I like swinging hard for a player in the draft albeit the odds we can swing up in the draft might be slim considering our draft position and other QB needy teams drafting ahead of us.

 

As for finding our own Russell Wilson, Tom Brady -- its a borderline miracle so I am not betting on miracles and wasting our young team on a wing and a prayer.  For every Russell Wilson.  There are 20:  Cody Keesler, Conner Cook, Cardale Jones, Kevin Hogan, Deshone Kizer, Kyle Lauletta, Jacon Easley, Ryan Finlay, Christian Hackenberg, Garrett Grayson, Davis Webb and I could go on and on and on and on.   The first round busts are easy to recall because they are big games.  But heck the 2nd-5th round busts can easily be forgetten but the list is staggering.  If you go through them it almost makes you think why even bother because its a needle in the haystack.  I am not opposed to trying but to me that's a lottery ticket, not something to count on, but ti be floored by if you get it right and fiind your own Wilson.  The reason why Wilson and Brady get mentioned so much is because thery are unicorns not because it being common. 

Tampa didn’t have Gronk, AB, Tyler Johnson, Winfield Jr, Brady or Fournette last year. That is a vast difference from last years team. 

[Skinsinparadise]

10 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Tampa didn’t have Gronk, AB, Tyler Johnson, Winfield Jr, Brady or Fournette last year. That is a vast difference from last years team. 

 

Not sure why you mentioned Brady since Brady is my point.    Every team will have a draft and FA, us too, even if we land a QB.  So my point wasn't that teams will be 100% the same.  But Tampa came back with mostly the same cast and the same supporting cast strengths.   

 

Fournette was actually meh for Tampa during the season.  He did play well in the playoffs.  He was picked up for nothing during the season as was Brown.   I liked Tyler Johnson before the draft, I am not looking hot on that one at this point.  He had almost no production during the season and in the post season didn't do much and had key drops.  Winfield is a beast.

Edited February 8, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[wit33]

1 hour ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

 

I mean it's just so clear, the teams that play at the end are disproportionately quarterbacked by top QBs.  We saw it again this year, we see it most every year.

 

Is there also an extra nuance to the great QB discussion and that being what the final 4 or 2 QBs each season are paid the year the year they contended?

 

Brady 2021: $25mil

 

Mahomes 2021: $45mil 

 

Brady appeared to have the better overall team. Not saying it everything to do with it, but just as much as anything in relation to the Bucs building a SB roster, IMO. Brady is #13 paid QB.

 

Is there something to what the elite QB is being paid or how the team structures the deal.  Did Brady apply the Patriot model and accept less to help the roster with Bucs? 
 

Final 4 QBs Pay rank for 2021:

 

Mahomes #1

Rodgers #5

Brady #14

Allen #29

 

Haven't taken time to look at numbers over last ten years to see if a pattern emerges, but I continue to speculate. 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 8, 2021 by wit33

[KDawg]

2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Not sure why you mentioned Brady since Brady is my point.    Every team will have a draft and FA, us too, even if we land a QB.  So my point wasn't that teams will be 100% the same.  But Tampa came back with mostly the same cast and the same supporting cast strengths.   

 

Fournette was actually meh for Tampa during the season.  He did play well in the playoffs.  He was picked up for nothing during the season as was Brown.   I liked Tyler Johnson before the draft, I am not looking hot on that one at this point.  He has almost no production during the season and in the post season didn't do much and had key drops.  Winfield is a beast.

Because I named all the major differences. Take away Brady, fine. Your point is still way off.

[Koolblue13]

Great game by two of the best QBs in the league, game won by the better LBers.

[Skinsinparadise]

2 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Because I named all the major differences. Take away Brady, fine. Your point is still way off.

 

If you think Tampa emergence is do to major upgrades in their supporting cast, then your point IMO is miles off.  

Edited February 8, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Koolblue13]

5 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

If you think Tampa emergence is do to major upgrades in their supporting cast, then your point IMO is miles off.  

The best 2 QBs in the NFL played last night, Right?

 

What was the difference?

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

If you think Tampa emergence is do to major upgrades in their supporting cast, then your point IMO is miles off.  

Their emergence is due to Tom Brady AND having weapons around him. The major contributors on that offense were not there last year. 
 

Brady can’t win without help. Again, he struggled more than ever in New England last year because he had nothing around him. I agree that NE only had a chance because of him. I won’t dispute that. But he didn’t win the big one without help.

 

Wirfs, Brown, Johnson, Fournette and Gronk were all major offensive contributors that weren’t on the Bucs roster last year. Pretty significant.

 

Winfield Jr., was a major difference defensively. 
 

Tampa Bay would have been a much better team this year regardless just by eliminating 20 turnovers that Jameis provided. Brady absolutely solidified the position and drove the car. But Brady ain’t driving a Miata to the promised land. Just close. 
 

You completely ignored the additions to the Bucs roster on top of Brady.

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

1 minute ago, Koolblue13 said:

The best 2 QBs in the NFL played last night, Right?

 

What was the difference?

 

I know why.  What do you think my position on the QB spot is? 

[Koolblue13]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I know why.  What do you think my position on the QB spot is? 

End all be all

[Skinsinparadise]

1 minute ago, KDawg said:

Their emergence is due to Tom Brady AND having weapons around him. The major contributors on that offense were not there last year. 
 

 

Tampa was loaded on offense last year too, they just beefed it even more.  Actually part of the narrative about why Brady liked Tampa was about their loaded roster.  It wasn't that it was a meh roster but now that they got Gronk they got it cooking.   

[wit33]

6 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

If you think Tampa emergence is do to major upgrades in their supporting cast, then your point IMO is miles off.  

Brady being paid $25mil is a critical factor. Easily could have demanded $40 plus mil in the open market. If you tout Brady as your elite guy example, his willingness to accept massively less throughout his career must be the “Robin” to the story. 
 

The wild thing is, I believe Mahomes understands this and his deal will in the long run be team friendly and this was purposely done. The QB must work with the team. 

[KDawg]

4 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Tampa was loaded on offense last year too, they just beefed it even more.  Actually part of the narrative about why Brady liked Tampa was about their loaded roster.  It wasn't that it was a meh roster but now that they got Gronk they got it cooking.   

I disagree with loaded, but good... yes.

 

The major contributors yesterday were: Antonio Brown (TD), Gronk (leading receiver, 2 TD), Fournette (rushing TD, leading rusher), Brady (MVP).

 

Thats statistically. And none were on the 2019 Bucs.
 

They had Evans, Miller and Godwin last year. And Ronald Jones. Jones looked better this season having someone to share the load with as well. Their offense was no where near as good as it is now.

 

Yes, it was better than WFT’s offense... by a landslide. But that’s not saying much. 

Edited February 8, 2021 by KDawg