Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[Going Commando]

16 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Great game by two of the best QBs in the league, game won by the better LBers.

 

Offensive line.  That was the biggest difference to me.  Tampa made the game easy by pounding A gap runs for good yardage and then things started snowballing.  Safeties started vacating and cutbacks started opening up and Tom Brady got to be a one read QB for the night.

 

Meanwhile KC couldn't get the chaotic blitzes or interior pressure picked up, couldn't hold an edge for Mahomes, and couldn't run the ball against a two man line despite the safeties playing deep AF to take away KCs track speed on the outside.

 

There were a lot of other factors in the beat down and linebackers were a part of it for sure.  Styles make fights and that Tampa D is perfect for playing an Andy Reid offense.  He will never just simplify and pound it up the middle and work the short passing game to get consistent chain movement, and you will never move the ball on outside runs with consistent success against that D, nor will you get anything going downfield without good OL play.

 

Special teams was a big factor.  Punt teams mistakes put KC in a hole during the contested part of the game.  Could have been worse too if not for an incredible open field tackle by that Pringles dude on the one kick where that hapless punter got it down field.  Lining up in the neutral zone on that Tampa FG attempt and giving them the first down where they immediately scored a TD was a backbreaker too.

 

Lapses of composure were also key.  When Andy Reid had to talk about at halftime having to ignore what they can't control in regards to the officiating disparity I knew the game was over.  KC got shook and mentally checked out of this one.  The hungrier and more aggressive team set the tone for the game and dared the officials to call them for the high degree of physicality they were getting away with in the secondary.

 

That was another big factor.  The KC receivers and TEs just didn't play well and they are supposed to be a key to the team, where they have sunk tons of resources into during this run.  They got bullied and couldn't make plays.

[Skinsinparadise]

38 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

End all be all

 

Not exactly.   End all be all for a SB but there is context to it.  And I have a price for every target even the ones I love.  It's really hard to debate the topic because people get pigeonholded into extreme corners where nuance gets lost.  And both sides of this discussion does it.   We all can do it in the heat of discussion so I do it, too. 😀  It's clearly a hot emotional topic and any of us can twist the other into sounding like a loon on the topic.  

 

The idea of me having a price is partly why I switched from lets trade up in the draft to vacilliating on the same subject.  The reason is simple which is now it looks to cost an arm and a leg whereas before when we were headed for a top 10 pick it didn't feel that expensive.    My beef though with some of the arguments on the other side of pushing hard for a QB -- is the wild point that its basically one or the other.  A QB or a supporting cast, pick one, because you can't upgrade both in the off season.  That to me is loony.  I get that if the idea is presented that way then it makes the dudes who push for a QB sound loony if that's the goal but its a false debate.  Every team can upgrade more than one spot in an off season even if they go aggressive at a QB. 

 

I've debated many times a supporting cast is key to win.  But here's my distinctions:

 

A. Franchise QBs are really really really really hard to find.   So i am combative in a debate when the point is brought up hey just go get one this way as if its not as hard as it looks

B.  Playing off of A.  I am pessimistic about the idea (sounds pie in the sky to me) that build your roster and when the time is right, your stud QB will likely be available for the taking.  I'd bet against it. 

C. You can have the best supporting cast but still not be a SB threat without the QB

D.  Easier to find other positions than a franchise QB, much easier.  Much is the operative word for me.

E.  I do think a great supporting cast ensures you are relevant even if unlikely a SB threat.  So if the goal is 9-7, 10-6, i get it.

F.  If the idea is become a 10-6 team and then maybe you can get lucky in the post season.  I disagree with the odds but I got no problem with the argument if its presented that way

G.  You likely need a top 10 QB to win a SB.  Yes there are exceptions but I am not a bet on exceptions kind of guy.

H. The go get a QB versus upgrade the roster binary discussion which comes up from some from time to time -- that's my button.    It lacks nuance.  And it comes off to me more like about winnng an argument than having a real discussion because its not true.  Clearly you can upgrade more than one spot in an off season. 

 

So do I want a supporting cast?  You bet I do.   But to me the harder find is the QB.  And the QB isn't just the cherry on the sundae.  The QB is necessary period.  In other words, I reject the Trent Dilfer model to win a SB in the modern NFL.  Yeah its possible.  Anything is possible.  But I used to be a teacher's assistant in stats.  I am into numbers.  I don't like to bet on the long shots.  I want to bet on likely outcomes versus hope to be an anamoly. 

Edited February 8, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[kingdaddy]

After watching yesterday two things are in my head:

1). Heinicke's performance was even better than I initially thought....Tampa's defense dominated the playoffs and he more than held his own. 

2). Just think how good our defense will be once we add two playmaking linebackers? 

 

Let's keep focusing on building the roster and sign a vet QB in free agency. 

[Darrell Green Fan]

49 minutes ago, wit33 said:

 

Is there also an extra nuance to the great QB discussion and that being what the final 4 or 2 QBs each season are paid the year the year they contended?

 

Brady 2021: $25mil

 

Mahomes 2021: $45mil 

 

Brady appeared to have the better overall team. Not saying it everything to do with it, but just as much as anything in relation to the Bucs building a SB roster, IMO. Brady is #13 paid QB.

 

Is there something to what the elite QB is being paid or how the team structures the deal.  Did Brady apply the Patriot model and accept less to help the roster with Bucs? 
 

Final 4 QBs Pay rank for 2021:

 

Mahomes #1

Rodgers #5

Brady #14

Allen #29

 

Haven't taken time to look at numbers over last ten years to see if a pattern emerges, but I continue to speculate. 

 

 

 

 

 

This is a solid point, there is a clear difference in the salary cap figures. But let's not also forget this Tampa team was 7-9 with a different QB and one game is not going to make anyone think that the Chiefs are not still legit title contenders. 

 

And of course teams like Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Green Bay, Seattle, even the Rams still were able to field teams capable of competing for a title year after year with the QB taking up a huge part of their cap. Again those teams tend to be there in January when the teams with the lesser QBs are dismissed.  

Edited February 8, 2021 by Darrell Green Fan

[KDawg]

Just now, Darrell Green Fan said:

 

This is a solid point, there is a clear difference in the salary cap figures. But let's not also forget this Tampa team was 7-9 with a different QB and one game is not going to make anyone think that the Chiefs are not still legit title contenders. 

 

And of course teams like Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Green Bay, even the Rams still were able to field teams capable of competing for a title year after year with the QB taking up a huge part of their cap. Again those teams tend to be there in January when the teams with the lesser QBs are dismissed.  

They were 7-9 with a different QB and also without Fournette, Brown, Johnson, Gronk, Wirfs, Winfield Jr.

 

how this keeps going overlooked is beyond me.

[Skinsinparadise]

29 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I disagree with loaded, but good... yes.

 

The major contributors yesterday were: Antonio Brown (TD), Gronk (leading receiver, 2 TD), Fournette (rushing TD, leading rusher), Brady (MVP).

 

Thats statistically. And none were on the 2019 Bucs.
 

They had Evans, Miller and Godwin last year. And Ronald Jones. Jones looked better this season having someone to share the load with as well. Their offense was no where near as good as it is now.

 

Yes, it was better than WFT’s offense... by a landslide. But that’s not saying much. 

 

It's been a narrative for years that their offense was loaded.  Even dudes like Fitzpatrick and Winston put up big numbers with that crew -- unforunately they were also turnover machines.

 

But i am clearly not going to convince you on this point, so i am done debating it. 

[LetThePointsSoar]

4 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

After watching yesterday two things are in my head:

1). Heinicke's performance was even better than I initially thought....Tampa's defense dominated the playoffs and he more than held his own. 

2). Just think how good our defense will be once we add two playmaking linebackers? 

 

Let's keep focusing on building the roster and sign a vet QB in free agency. 

 

Agreed. He went toe to toe with a defense that shut DOWN arguably the best QB in the league. 

[Est.1974]

Well we still need a major upgrade at QB, irrespective of the Super Bowl.

[Skinsinparadise]

40 minutes ago, wit33 said:

Brady being paid $25mil is a critical factor. Easily could have demanded $40 plus mil in the open market. If you tout Brady as your elite guy example, his willingness to accept massively less throughout his career must be the “Robin” to the story. 
 

The wild thing is, I believe Mahomes understands this and his deal will in the long run be team friendly and this was purposely done. The QB must work with the team. 

 

OK.  But I am not sure what the argument is even an elite guy isn't worth the money?    I don't think anyone disagrees that paying less for players beats playing more if you can pull it off. 

Edited February 8, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Koolblue13]

I'm not going to use the SB to push Heinicke up the depth chart at all, but we lost to the Bucs because of the LBer play.

 

Linebackers. I doubt that is missed by our former LB HC or our former LB DC.

 

Defense won another championship. Defense.

[Darrell Green Fan]

8 minutes ago, KDawg said:

They were 7-9 with a different QB and also without Fournette, Brown, Johnson, Gronk, Wirfs, Winfield Jr.

 

how this keeps going overlooked is beyond me.

 

Well every team is never exactly the same. But as has been pointed out already they got to the Super Bowl with none of these players playing the huge rolls you are implying before yesterday.  The biggest difference in this team by a large measure was the QB.

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

 

Well every team is never exactly the same. But as has been pointed out already they got to the Super Bowl with none of these players playing the huge rolls you are implying before yesterday.  The biggest difference in this team by a large measure was the QB.

Gronk and Fournette were unreal good this whole playoff run. As was Winfield Jr and Wirfs.

[Skinsinparadise]

1 minute ago, Koolblue13 said:

I'm not going to use the SB to push Heinicke up the depth chart at all, but we lost to the Bucs because of the LBer play.

 

Linebackers. I doubt that is missed by our former LB HC or our former LB DC.

 

 

Ron Rivera practically put up billboards on 3 spots being upgraded this off season:  Qb, LB, WR.  I'd bet hard they make a move on all.  My only issue with last night was Lavonte David was so good, including covering Kelce, that its hard for me to see them let him go.  but can they pay both Godwin (who might get 18 million or so) and David?

 

 

 

[Koolblue13]

22 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Offensive line.  That was the biggest difference to me.  Tampa made the game easy by pounding A gap runs for good yardage and then things started snowballing.  Safeties started vacating and cutbacks started opening up and Tom Brady got to be a one read QB for the night.

 

Meanwhile KC couldn't get the chaotic blitzes or interior pressure picked up, couldn't hold an edge for Mahomes, and couldn't run the ball against a two man line despite the safeties playing deep AF to take away KCs track speed on the outside.

 

There were a lot of other factors in the beat down and linebackers were a part of it for sure.  Styles make fights and that Tampa D is perfect for playing an Andy Reid offense.  He will never just simplify and pound it up the middle and work the short passing game to get consistent chain movement, and you will never move the ball on outside runs with consistent success against that D, nor will you get anything going downfield without good OL play.

 

Special teams was a big factor.  Punt teams mistakes put KC in a hole during the contested part of the game.  Could have been worse too if not for an incredible open field tackle by that Pringles dude on the one kick where that hapless punter got it down field.  Lining up in the neutral zone on that Tampa FG attempt and giving them the first down where they immediately scored a TD was a backbreaker too.

 

Lapses of composure were also key.  When Andy Reid had to talk about at halftime having to ignore what they can't control in regards to the officiating disparity I knew the game was over.  KC got shook and mentally checked out of this one.  The hungrier and more aggressive team set the tone for the game and dared the officials to call them for the high degree of physicality they were getting away with in the secondary.

 

That was another big factor.  The KC receivers and TEs just didn't play well and they are supposed to be a key to the team, where they have sunk tons of resources into during this run.  They got bullied and couldn't make plays.

I will never argue against a stout OLine, but the Bucs LBers tore them apart. David and White had a day. They found a hole and ripped it wide open.

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Ron Rivera practically put up billboards on 3 spots being upgraded this off season:  Qb, LB, WR.  I'd bet hard they make a move on all.  My only issue with last night was Lavonte David was so good, including covering Kelce, that its hard for me to see them let him go.  but can they pay both Godwin (who might get 18 million or so) and David?

 

 

 

David got paid last night.   Probably by us.

[kingdaddy]

6 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

Well we still need a major upgrade at QB, irrespective of the Super Bowl.

I'm gonna play devils advocate with you on this. When you say "major" upgrade at QB I will say that we may just need a simple upgrade. We won games with a one-legged QB largely because of our defense. If we simply roll Kyle Allen out there and bolster the defense even more I'd say there's a good chance we have a 10 win roster assuming we add a WR in free agency and some upgrades at LB. We are gonna be better next year once we find a guy who we know is competent at QB and that we can win with simply because our roster is gonna be even better and DH is no longer on the team.

[Lovi]

14 minutes ago, LetThePointsSoar said:

 

Agreed. He went toe to toe with a defense that shut DOWN arguably the best QB in the league. 

 

Thing is I wonder how much he would have dominated if Tampa had more tape on him or more time to prepare.  I mean he'd played like 1 quarter.  Hard to formulate a good gameplan with that.

[BigHuv21]

1 minute ago, Lovi said:

 

Thing is I wonder how much he would have dominated if Tampa had more tape on him or more time to prepare.  I mean he'd played like 1 quarter.  Hard to formulate a good gameplan with that.

Devin White also didn't play against us

[slinky]

1 hour ago, KDawg said:

Tampa didn’t have Gronk, AB, Tyler Johnson, Winfield Jr, Brady or Fournette last year. That is a vast difference from last years team. 

Tristan Wirfs.
The O-line was where it was won/lost. Mahomes, who's one of the most elusive QBs in the league vs Brady (the opposite mobility ability) and the Chiefs only got like 2 QB hits on Brady all game whereas Tampa hit Mahomes at least 10 times (or running backwards 30 yards before throwing it away or up for grabs). The Bucs O-line was dominant... and people don't recognize how much hitting on a stud tackle in last years draft really helped them.

[KDawg]

Just now, BigHuv21 said:

Devin White also didn't play against us

Absolutely the truth. Heinicke played well against Tampa. Real well. Reality also says: no film, no White. 
 

Huge factors.

 

I don’t think that takes away from how Heinicke played. But they are absolutely factors and you can’t count on those to be the norm for Heinicke.

Just now, slinky said:

Tristan Wirfs.
The O-line was where it was won/lost. Mahomes, who's one of the most elusive QBs in the league vs Brady (the opposite mobility ability) and the Chiefs only got like 2 QB hits on Brady all game whereas Tampa hit Mahomes at least 10 times (or running backwards 30 yards before throwing it away or up for grabs). The Bucs O-line was dominant... and people don't recognize how much hitting on a stud tackle in last years draft really helped them.

I talked about Wirfs in subsequent posts. I was talking only the skills positions there. But yes. I agree. OL wins games.

[Skinsinparadise]

7 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

 

David got paid last night.   Probably by us.

 

He's been my top FA desire for a long time now. 

 

Look at what London Fletcher meant to our defense and how their vaunted defense under Gregg Williams back in the day fell off a cliff when they let Antonio Pierce go?

 

I've been on the value of MLBs for a long time on the draft thread -- especially years back when the Dallas MLBs were healthy you can see what a difference they made to their defense. 

 

It's one of the main things I disagree with PFF on who downplay their value. 

 

Rivera is defintely well aware, he's mentioned the MLB spot several times.  In fact its the only spot he's mentioned when it comes to upgrading the D.  Not that I am sure he doesn't have other desires but MLB is the spot he's specifically mentioned.  He flat out said once he needs to find his new Luke Kuechly. 

 

Edited February 8, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Koolblue13]

Just now, Skinsinparadise said:

 

He's been my top FA desire for a long time now. 

 

Look at what London Fletcher meant to our defence and how their vaunted defense under Gregg Williams back in the day fell off a cliff when they let Antonio Pierce go?

 

I've been on the value of MLBs for a long time on the draft thread -- especially years back when the Dallas MLBs were healthy you can see what a difference they made to their defense. 

 

It's one of the main things I disagree with PFF on who downplay their value. 

 

Rivera is defintely well aware, he's mentioned the MLB spot several times.  In fact its the only spot he's mentioned when it comes to upgrading the D.  Not that I am sure he doesn't have other desires but MLB is the spot he's specifically mentioned.  He flat out said once he needs to find his new Luke Kuechly. 

 

I don't think we have a lot of holes, but the ones we do have are gaping. 

 

I know QB is one of them and I want to address it as badly as you do, but if that was the only elevated position, Rodgers would have multiple rings. Manning wouldn't have left Indy.

 

We need to complete this defense and let it be special and see where it can go.

[Est.1974]

1 minute ago, kingdaddy said:

I'm gonna play devils advocate with you on this. When you say "major" upgrade at QB I will say that we may just need a simple upgrade. We won games with a one-legged QB largely because of our defense. If we simply roll Kyle Allen out there and bolster the defense even more I'd say there's a good chance we have a 10 win roster assuming we add a WR in free agency and some upgrades at LB. We are gonna be better next year once we find a guy who we know is competent at QB and that we can win with simply because our roster is gonna be even better and DH is no longer on the team.

I’ve said myself I think Kyle Allen gets us to 8 wins with his eye closed. I strongly advocate  Allen over Heinicke. But a slight upgrade isn’t going to snag the big fish. 
 

Our QBs all but ranked bottom of the league. Or near enough. I consider a major upgrade as being dragged into the lofty heights of the mid tier 14-18 rank of QB. 
 

At present, as a group in 2020, we were the worst in the league pretty much.

[Capt'n Obvious]

23 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

 

1). Heinicke's performance was even better than I initially thought....Tampa's defense dominated the playoffs and he more than held his own. 

 

 

Devin White and Vita Vea missed that game. Not saying that marginalizes what TH did, but its definitely a factor. 

[kingdaddy]

6 minutes ago, Lovi said:

 

Thing is I wonder how much he would have dominated if Tampa had more tape on him or more time to prepare.  I mean he'd played like 1 quarter.  Hard to formulate a good gameplan with that.

True, but Heinicke made the throws and handled everything Todd Bowles threw at him....Tampa knew Heiny could run and make plays with his legs, they have scouts that knew what he could do. I agree with your point but Heinicke had to impress the Tampa as much as he did us. In fact, I wonder how many teams have Heinicke on their list of options should we cut him loose based on how he played against the now SB champions?

[HigSkin]

9 minutes ago, BigHuv21 said:

Devin White also didn't play against us

 

Devin White should have been the MVP.  He was all over the place and Vita Vea was also out when we played them.  He had a great game as well.