Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[bakedtater1]

Soooooo are we looking forward to tanking this coming season too?.. should we be already looking forward to next year's draft

[KDawg]

10 minutes ago, bakedtater1 said:

Soooooo are we looking forward to tanking this coming season too?.. should we be already looking forward to next year's draft

 

What?

[RWJ]

33 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

What?

KDawg, give up on it.  Some people understand and those that don't hopefully will over time.  Rome wasn't built in a day nor can the WFT be. 

[KDawg]

Just now, RWJ said:

KDawg, give up on it.  Some people understand and those that don't hopefully will over time.  Rome wasn't built in a day nor can the WFT be. 

No, I legit mean “what?”.

 

Like... I have no idea what he’s asking

[RWJ]

Just now, KDawg said:

No, I legit mean “what?”.

 

Like... I have no idea what he’s asking

The posters here talking about QB and AR etc. in time will get that we are going with Fitz, TH and Allen, maybe Montez.  Next year they can fill the QB need.  They'll eventually get it.  LOL

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, RWJ said:

The posters here talking about QB and AR etc. in time will get that we are going with Fitz, TH and Allen, maybe Montez.  Next year they can fill the QB need.  They'll eventually get it.  LOL

I don’t think that’s his question.

 

My THOUGHT is he’s asking if we think the season is lost because we’re talking about a QB now and looking at next years draft class... but my mind then says, “no one can possibly think that because we’re talking about a QB next year that means we’re thinking we’re going to be awful this season...”

[RWJ]

1 minute ago, KDawg said:

I don’t think that’s his question.

 

My THOUGHT is he’s asking if we think the season is lost because we’re talking about a QB now and looking at next years draft class... but my mind then says, “no one can possibly think that because we’re talking about a QB next year that means we’re thinking we’re going to be awful this season...”

I gotcha.  You can understand then my post to you. 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[mistertim]

59 minutes ago, KDawg said:

No, I legit mean “what?”.

 

Like... I have no idea what he’s asking

 

My take on it was the he was assuming that, like this draft, we will most likely not be in a position next draft to get one of the top QB prospects. Unless there are a string of injuries to a bunch of our main players I'd probably agree.

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, mistertim said:

 

My take on it was the he was assuming that, like this draft, we will most likely not be in a position next draft to get one of the top QB prospects. Unless there are a string of injuries to a bunch of our main players I'd probably agree.

 

Right... but that's why we're talking about trading up. 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[mistertim]

6 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

Right... but that's why we're talking about trading up. 

 

Got it. Yeah trading up next year may be an option. Though if (and at this point it's still totally an if) next year's QB class is somewhat weak at the top then it would make it more difficult/problematic I'd think. That means any actual blue chipper would probably go 1st or 2nd and then the rest may be underwhelming but a couple might still go high due to demand at the position. I wouldn't want to trade up for a "meh" prospect.

 

Though I doubt RR and this FO would trade up unless they really loved a guy, so that last point may be moot.

[TheGoodBits]

4 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

Watching his highlight reel and oh boy he reminds me of Mike Vick. 
 

edit- I’ll say a poor man’s Vick. He plays with the same swagger and shiftiness but does not have quite the breakaway speed that Vick did. 

Edited May 3, 2021 by skinsfan_1215

[DWinzit]

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Edited May 3, 2021 by DWinzit

[justice98]

1 hour ago, mistertim said:

 

Got it. Yeah trading up next year may be an option. Though if (and at this point it's still totally an if) next year's QB class is somewhat weak at the top then it would make it more difficult/problematic I'd think. That means any actual blue chipper would probably go 1st or 2nd and then the rest may be underwhelming but a couple might still go high due to demand at the position. I wouldn't want to trade up for a "meh" prospect.

 

Though I doubt RR and this FO would trade up unless they really loved a guy, so that last point may be moot.

 

IMO, Rivera basically has no choice but to do something bold if he wants a QB.  If we assume that they're better this year, they're picking in the 20s somewhere.  Now, you can certainly get a stud QB to fall in your lap there, but as you alluded to, depends on the draft class.

 

Best case scenario otherwise is Fitzpatrick lights it up such that you get two years out of him instead of one and buy more time to figure something out. I mean, next year's free agent QBs is basically the same crop of dudes nobody wanted this year.  Bridgewater, Dalton, Taylor, Winston, Newton, Brissett, etc.  Or hope some halfway decent vet is trade bait.  

[Malapropismic Depository]

Probably won't be very long until someone starts the same exact thread, but with 2022 in it

 

[mistertim]

20 minutes ago, justice98 said:

 

IMO, Rivera basically has no choice but to do something bold if he wants a QB.  If we assume that they're better this year, they're picking in the 20s somewhere.  Now, you can certainly get a stud QB to fall in your lap there, but as you alluded to, depends on the draft class.

 

Best case scenario otherwise is Fitzpatrick lights it up such that you get two years out of him instead of one and buy more time to figure something out. I mean, next year's free agent QBs is basically the same crop of dudes nobody wanted this year.  Bridgewater, Dalton, Taylor, Winston, Newton, Brissett, etc.  Or hope some halfway decent vet is trade bait.  

 

Yeah I think hoping for your QB of the future in FA is a fool's errand, and Ron is no fool so I'm assuming they're generally looking to the draft unless someone big becomes available via trade.

 

Sure you can get the super one-off of Brady and Manning FAs, but both of those guys were old and had questions about them (Manning with his injury and Brady coming off of a couple underwhelming seasons so people were wondering if he didn't have it anymore). You're certainly not going to get a young top QB in FA.

 

As far as a trade, then the questions are who is it, what is the cost, and does he even want to come here?

 

For who you could potentially have Rodgers and Wilson. As far as price, Wilson would cost no less than three 1st rounders easily. Rodgers might be had for two 1sts, depending on how the situation unfolds. As far as coming here...doesn't sound like we're a desired landing spot for either. For Rodgers it doesn't matter since he doesn't have a no-trade clause, but for Wilson it does since he does have one. That being said, Rodgers is the kind of guy who would probably tell a team he was potentially being traded to that he would refuse to play for them if it wasn't a top destination pick for him. If Wilson doesn't want to come here, that's the end of it.

 

Not really going to get into Watson because that's its own entire mess that's unfolding. 

[Anselmheifer]

Do Aaron Rogers and Russell Wilson have no trade clauses that will let them guide where they are traded?

[CurseReversed]

On 4/30/2021 at 11:15 AM, Thinking Skins said:

Yeah I'm a mathematician. One thing is that the numbers tend to lie, depending on what you're looking at and what question you ask. That's one of the reason I'm not a fan of pure analytics (and I'm a guy who has presented on NFL analytics stuff at the MIT Sloan conference). But just because an analytic says that teams that go for it on 4th down tend to make it 65% of the time, it doesn't mean that THIS 4th and 1 in the 4th quarter of a playoff game against the number 1 defense in the league at the 46 yard line, down 3, against an MVP level QB is the right decision. And when the analytic is wrong, the coach will get fired if he just says "but the analytic says to go for it in this case" just like we laughed at Rivera for going for it on the 2 point conversion against the Giants where stats say that its advantageous to go for them. 

 

But for the QB stuff, QB is never in a vacuum. Its a question of building the best team. If we had all pros at all the other positions, sure we should draft a QB in the first. But if we can get a game changing LT or LB or CB or WR, then its a cost benefit analysis of who is more important. And some of these same stats that say how much better the QB is in the first vs other rounds say that other positions (particularly OL and LT) are much safer picks than QB. In fact QB is the LEAST safe pick in the first round. So we are not going to build a team if we keep wasting valuable capital on QBs who are not successful. LB / TE / OT / S / C all have a bust rate thats half that of QBs. (40% bust rate for QBs vs about 20 for the other positions). 

 

And you mention above that the draft isn't the only option. We can also just sign a QB in free agency. Its unlikely to be an all pro, but FA QBs have been guys who have gone from one team to another either as proven vets, or young QBs whose first contract expired and these are much safer options to build around than a risky first rounder. Sure they may not have the upside of a Lawrence or Burrow, but they also don't have the risk of a Darnold or a Daniel Jones or these other QBs who are taken in the first who may have it all or may not. Plus if we sign a FA qb (like Fitz and Heinicke) and draft a lower round QB (like Mond or Mills or Trask) we can just have a competition in camp and nobody's mad if their favorite guy doesn't win. That's not true if we draft a first round QB and he's not the starter (see Haskins). 

The 4th and 1 decision is a good analogy for why people keep overemphasizing these statistical models and why they lead to faulty assumptions.  It is simply not possible to be in a 4th and 1 situation and think that you can just pick any play, run it,  and you will automatically have a chance of success equal to all the teams that went for it on 4th and one before you.   It is equally impossible to select a qb in a draft slot or round and expect them to automatically have the same chance of success as every qb chosen in that slot or round  before them.   Every 4th and 1 is different.  Different players, different schemes, different weather, different play calls and different referees.     Every draft pick is different.  Different  draft classes, different coaching, different opportunity, different scouting, and different circumstances. 

 

Using the Russell Wilson Analogy, It is not accurate to think of a 3rd round pick as nothing but a Russell Wilson lottery ticket. The chances of you drafting Russell Wilson are based solely on your ability to scout a Russell Wilson and the ability of others to scout him in the slots before your pick.   No more and no less.   

 

I think it is easy to believe that there is a choice a football team makes regarding the necessity of a franchise QB, then just has to do what it takes to get them, but this is a fantasy.    The success rate for QB's in any round or slot is just very low.  The success rate for great QB's is astronomically low.  Yes it helps to have first pick at them and to try and find the good ones early, but you still have to play the long odds no matter what.  Every team is in the same boat, they have to scout as best they can and try to find the best QB value in the best draft slot and put them in the best position to succeed.  You might be a little more aggressive but aggression is not a substitute for ability, and draft slot is not a substitute for scouting or developing.    There is no magic formula and there sure is not proof at all that you can predetermine your chances of success just by picking in a certain spot.   You have to put a lot of pieces together to make it work. 

[Califan007 The Constipated]

3 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

My take on it was the he was assuming that, like this draft, we will most likely not be in a position next draft to get one of the top QB prospects. Unless there are a string of injuries to a bunch of our main players I'd probably agree.

 

My take on it was that it was a sarcastic response reflecting those who continuously claim drafting in the top 5 is the only way to get a worthwhile QB and how we ****ed up getting into the playoffs lol...

 

 

[mistertim]

28 minutes ago, Califan007 said:

 

My take on it was that it was a sarcastic response reflecting those who continuously claim drafting in the top 5 is the only way to get a worthwhile QB and how we ****ed up getting into the playoffs lol...

 

 

 

Well...yeah, that too. 

 

I suppose I was trying to give the benefit of the doubt. 

[Califan007 The Constipated]

18 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Well...yeah, that too. 

 

I suppose I was trying to give the benefit of the doubt. 

 

I think it shows that all of us were saying "What?" lol...

Edited May 3, 2021 by Califan007

[bakedtater1]

3 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:

Do Aaron Rogers and Russell Wilson have no trade clauses that will let them guide where they are traded?

Aaron Rodgers does not have a trade clause

[“Misdirection”]

Once Fields was gone, I was out on QB in the draft this year. We have some high upside options in Allen/Taylor/Fitz that only cost $$$ at this point. adding another with a 2/3rd would’ve been wasteful I think. 

 

Ive convinced myself at this point that we’re getting our QB next year. That will be year 3 for Ron and company. Even if we go 9-7, 10-6, make playoffs and win a game. Anything short of a super bowl and Dan will be feeling the urge to grab that QB 

 

it’ll either be a big splashy vet trade for a disgruntled elite older QB, or it’ll be a top 5 pick. 
 

either way I predict Jamin Davis is the last position player we draft in the first for the next 2-3 years lol

[CommanderInTheRye]

What if after all the dust is settled it turns out that we had a strong armed runnin’ and gunin’, all night under the sheets funin’, quarterback of the future on our roster all along and no one knew it?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Reintroducing to the WFT, the legend in waiting, the king of sting, the scrambling rambling and extra long dangling—- Man Mountain Montez!!!

 

 

 

Edited May 3, 2021 by TrancesWithWolves