2021 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[KDawg]

The secondary and the linebackers genuinely inspire fear in me.

 

Not in the way you’d want it to.

[HTTRDynasty]

PFF seems to be higher on us than the consensus. 

 

 

[Est.1974]

Picking top 2 we’ll be taking a QB

 

picking 3-5 it’ll be CB or OT

 

6-15 which I think we’ll land in, LB all the way 

 

just my early take 

[HTTRDynasty]

Wonder if Rivera would take a TE in the back half of the top 10.  Kyle Pitts might be worth it. 

[Going Commando]

17 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

Wonder if Rivera would take a TE in the back half of the top 10.  Kyle Pitts might be worth it. 

 

I like Pitts, but I'm not sure of that.  When is the last time a tight end justified being worth a first round pick, much less top ten?

[Going Commando]

Looking over this list, I think it's clear that TE is the least projectable position and has provided the worst first round value for teams of any p[osition over the last 10-12 years.

 

http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?position=TE&type=position

 

You have to go back to the mid-aughts to consistently find first round TEs that panned out enough to justify their draft range, and Vernon Davis in 2006 was the last top ten TE that justified a pick that high.

 

The list of first round busts and bubble players in between is larger than the hit rate:

Hit

Tyler Eiffert, 2013, 21st overall

 

Bubble

Evan Engram, 2017, 23rd

TJ Hockenson, 2019 8th

Hayden Hurst, 2018, 25th

Noah Fant, 2019, 20th

 

Busts

OJ Howard, 2017, 18th

David Njoku, 2017, 29th

Eric Ebron, 2014, 10th (ouch)

Jermaine Gresham, 2010, 21st

Brandon Pettigrew, 2009, 20th

Dustin Keller, 2008, 30th

 

A first round-worthy TE has been Detroit's white whale since 2009.

 

You have to go back to 2000-2007 starting with Bubba Franks and going to Greg Olsen to find a run of TEs who consistently justified first round selections.  During that span, the hit rate on that position in the top 40 was incredible, but it's been garbage ever since.  Shotgun spread offense making its way into the NFL has killed the draft value of the TE position.  With the exception of Eiffert, the best TEs have been picked outside of the first round for the last dozen classes.

[Skinsinparadise]

Judging by early mocks, granted they don't mean much now, a dude like Jordan will likely be there in the 2nd maybe even Pitts, too.   I agree with not drafting a TE in the first round.  But in my view if its a high level talent, I would consider taking one in the upper half of the 2nd round. 

[Going Commando]

It's weird, the TE position is arguably just as valuable today as it was in the aughts from an Xs and Os standpoint, but the draft value has plummeted.  It's become un-projectable. 

 

A shotgun spread means you don't need in-line edge blocking support in pass pro because OTs who can get depth on a vertical set can keep the edge clean easier than ever.  It is a looong way to the quarterback in a shotgun alignment against a 6'6 OT who can cheat outside and kick really deep on his set and a QB who doesn't have to take a drop.   The onus of interior pass protection has shifted to backfield players--the QB, the RBs.  Remember when we used to tout QBs who could move up in the pocket and RBs who could pick up a blitz like Portis were so special and rare?  Now those are core skills.  This has diminished the pass blocking role of the TE position and thus the value/necessity of having a big in-line blocker who can also catch and run routes.  A TE's biggest value as a blocker is in getting after it in the outside run game.  But that skill has not been a highly valued draft commodity.  People just don't value any of the facets of the run game that highly in the draft any more--offense or defense.

 

So a TE's biggest source of value has been his receiving ability and versatility.  And the league just doesn't seem to be projecting this very well in the TE prospects.  NFL slot route skill is a finer skill that depends a lot on instincts and physicality.  College coverages tend to play the slot differently too.  I think a huge portion of success as a receiver from the TE position comes from intangible traits.  It is an absolutely brutal position and highly skilled lunatics like Kittle and Kelce and Gronk have been tough to see coming.

 

Hard not to notice that the hit rate for first round wide receivers has been horrific too, but that's been discussed much more heavily.  Analytics types like the PFF guys **** on the draft value of positions like DT, IOL, and RB, but the hit rate on those guys in the first round has been massively better than on the more highly valued pass game weapons.

Teams are far better off hitting doubles on defensive tackles or triples and home runs on guards and running backs in the first round than they are hitting singles (or striking out) on receivers and tight ends.

[cakmoney61]

Looking at PFF's ratings of the Redskins' players (both offensively and defensively), you understand why the experts have them picking in the top 5 in 2021.  A majority of those ratings are pretty pedestrian. 

 

The question is can coaching improve those ratings across the board?  I think and hope that it can.  I think Jay Gruden was horrible at preparing the team during the week and even worse on game day.

Edited May 10, 2020 by cakmoney61

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

4 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

I

Hard not to notice that the hit rate for first round wide receivers has been horrific too, but that's been discussed much more heavily.  Analytics types like the PFF guys **** on the draft value of positions like DT, IOL, and RB, but the hit rate on those guys in the first round has been massively better than on the more highly valued pass game weapons.

Teams are far better off hitting doubles on defensive tackles or triples and home runs on guards and running backs in the first round than they are hitting singles (or striking out) on receivers and tight ends.

 

Good point, its become just about conventional wisdom that you don't need to take receivers early.  TE would fit in that category, too.   O line seems to be one of the safest picks.  Right now, if we have a high pick, Sewell strikes me as much as a no brainer as Chase Young was this year.

 

For me the QB position is leaps and bounds more important versus any other spot.  So if its Lawrence vs. Sewell or whichever QB emerges as elite if it happens this year -- QB >>>>> LT.    However, I am hoping Haskins ends up the guy where it becomes a moot subject.  If Haskins is the guy it will make everything by a mile easier as for building this team.  I know you are sold on him.  I am not yet, I waffle on the dude but i lean positive and i am hoping he works out.  

 

If Haskins is the guy.  And McLaurin and Sims continue to develop.  Ditto Gibson and Gandy-Golden.  Then IMO headed to the 2021 season its the O line that needs to be enhanced, along with maybe MLB and CB.    I think our O line could end up sneaky bad.  Wes Martin was rated a 37 by PFF in pass protection.  Then we got Atlanta's backup guard who judging by his PFF ratings is just a guy.  Moses to me is just OK at best though I give him props for durability.  I like Scherff more than most.  But this isn't a loaded O line.  Some of us used to make fun of the NY Giants O line but i think right now theirs is a clear peg better than ours.  Ditto Dallas and Philly.   I am hoping Charles can stay out of trouble and that would help a lot.  But otherwise if the O line is Geron Christian at LT and Wes Martin at LG -- the O line might end up being a problem. 

Edited May 10, 2020 by Skinsinparadise

[HTTRDynasty]

5 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

I like Pitts, but I'm not sure of that.  When is the last time a tight end justified being worth a first round pick, much less top ten?

For me, I throw that out the window if I have him graded significantly higher than his peers at other positions. For example, I’d rather draft the 8.0 graded TE over the 7.6 graded LB or 7.4 graded OT. The sample size just hasn’t been large enough for me to obsess over historic hit rates and pass up on a premium pass catching talent at TE. 

[757SeanTaylor21]

It's interesting how hockenson was such a sure fire te that was gonna destroy the nfl...but nah not really. 

[nonniey]

8 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

I like Pitts, but I'm not sure of that.  When is the last time a tight end justified being worth a first round pick, much less top ten?

There's always a first time.

[Going Commando]

3 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

For me, I throw that out the window if I have him graded significantly higher than his peers at other positions. For example, I’d rather draft the 8.0 graded TE over the 7.6 graded LB or 7.4 graded OT. The sample size just hasn’t been large enough for me to obsess over historic hit rates and pass up on a premium pass catching talent at TE. 

 

I agree, I'll take the higher graded prospect unless the discrepancy in position value is enormous.  But the trouble is with getting a grade right for a tight end.  It seems to be the most difficult position to project, and it's not really clear to me why the bust rate for the position has been so bad.

[Est.1974]

Must admit, I don’t know the stats over the years, but perhaps TEs get traditionally reached for more than other positions due to the volume, or should I say lack of volume, available.

You are probably lucky if 3 or 4 are drafted before day 3 each year. Chances are some of those have been reached for due to need. Clear evidence this year how that works in practice with both the Patriots and Saints appearing somewhat desperate as the third round was closing out.

 

Maybe people overpay in a market lacking supply and therefore end up with inferior goods to what the price inferred....or GMs are more inclined to roll the dice because they really NEED a TE....interestingly though, we didn’t. So perhaps that reflects well on our discipline within the draft this year?

 

No real idea though, I didn’t look into that subject in great detail. 

[mhd24]

9 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

Chase reminds me of Torry Holt.  They have the exact same build.  Holt was a route running expert coupled with speed and athletic ability.

 

[Est.1974]

I’m adding Max Borghi to my watchlist.

[skins2victory]

7 hours ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

I’m adding Max Borghi to my watchlist.

Yes sir! Borghi is a stud! Go Cougs!

[Mr. Sinister]

On 5/10/2020 at 7:34 AM, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

I like Pitts, but I'm not sure of that.  When is the last time a tight end justified being worth a first round pick, much less top ten?

 

Seems like the best TE's are always mid round to undrafted projects, and the freakshow TE's that are drafted high rarely pan out. Wonder why that is

Edited May 13, 2020 by Mr. Sinister

[DWinzit]

6 hours ago, Mr. Sinister said:

 

Seems like the best TE's are always mid round to undrafted projects, and the freakshow TE's that are drafted high rarely pan out. Wonder why that is

Agreed. So often the fit the team well and are given time to learn in steps, not forced into playing immediately due to being a top pick. I fully expect this to prove out this year with a guy like Asiasi who was selected at 91, which was earlier than most expected by a round or two. I believe 2 or 3 years from now he will be the best known TE from this draft, even if Stidham is throwing to him. He can handle all the TE expectations. 

[Going Commando]

8 hours ago, Mr. Sinister said:

 

Seems like the best TE's are always mid round to undrafted projects, and the freakshow TE's that are drafted high rarely pan out. Wonder why that is

 

It used to be that you could basically just draft Miami's tight end in the first round and get a star.  This is the list of first round TEs in the aughts in chronological order:

 

1 - Bubba Franks, Miami

2 - Anthony Becht, West Virginia

3 - Todd Heap, AZ St

4 - Jeremy Shockey, Miami

5 - Daniel Graham, Colorado

6 - Jerramy Stevens, Washington

7 - Dallas Clark, Iowa

8 - Kellen Winslow, Miami

9 - Benjamin Watson, Georgia

10 - Heath Miller, UVA

11 - Vernon Davis, Maryland

12 - Mercedes Lewis, UCLA

13 - Greg Olsen, Miami

14 - Dustin Keller, Purdue

15 - Brandon Pettigrew, OK St

 

That was like a 90% hit rate through 2007, then the wheels came off in 2008 beginning with Dustin Keller.  Almost every class reliably produced a high level player at the position in the first round.  Something changed after 2007, and I think it was the league and the nature of the position rather than the talent level of the top guys coming out of college. Now it's definitely the case that the best TEs seem to come outside of the first round and, more often than not, they're receiving specialists who wouldn't fit as traditional in-line tight ends.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

On 5/10/2020 at 2:14 PM, 757SeanTaylor21 said:

It's interesting how hockenson was such a sure fire te that was gonna destroy the nfl...but nah not really. 

look back at TEs around the league. Almost none breakout in Year 1. The fantasy guidance on Hock last year was a border TE2 because of that trend. And both he and Fant had pretty good years when they were on the field. I would expect big breakouts this year for Hockenson and Fant. I think Hock will be in Kelce/Kittle territory pretty soon 

[Skinsinparadise]

I just watched two games of Micah Parsons.  He's a fun watch.  He is a ball of energy.  Relentless motor.  He sheds tackles really well.  Like most aggressive type players, his weakness from what I saw is over pursuing and in turn opening up a hole in doing so.

 

He has sideline to sideline speed, good instincts, around the ball most of the time.  They send him after the Qb from time to time.   As for coverage, i didn't really see him tested much on that front.  I included one clip where you can see him cover.  He looked good in coverage, he back peddles well, has good instincts.

 

I noticed some draft geeks and fans compare him to Simmons with some saying he's better than Simmons.  I don't really see the two players as that similar stylistically. Simmons played in coverage a lot.  Parsons not so much.  Parsons is more of a traditional MLB.   He reminds me some of Patrick Queen, a more souped up version of him.   He is not a monster tackler where he flattens dudes but he has good technique, tackles low.  He overpursues at times and can miss some key tackles.  I wouldn't say he plays out of control but on some plays he gets fooled because he doesn't always wait for the play to develop and thereby can hit the wrong angle.  

 

Reading some of the write ups on him, you'd think the dude is the be all and end all MLB.  I liked what I saw a lot but have some pause that the sun rises and sets with the dude at MLB.  At least in the two games I watched, he was really good but has some flaws IMO.   I loved Queen when I watched him so saying Parson's is a souped up version for me -- means I like him a lot as a player.  But the mentions of him being better than Simmons and a slam dunk top 5 pick -- I am not quite there yet.  I got to watch more and think about it.   Said differently, I'd love to have him on our team but on first blush to my eyes he doesn't look like the Chase Young of MLBs -- albeit he is very good. 

 

Edited May 13, 2020 by Skinsinparadise

[Anselmheifer]

On 5/10/2020 at 7:21 PM, mhd24 said:

 

Chase reminds me of Torry Holt.  They have the exact same build.  Holt was a route running expert coupled with speed and athletic ability.

 

 

I'm just not sure that Ja'Marr Chase reminds me of Torry Holt. I know Chase is fast enough, but I don't think he's a speed/quickness guy. He looks more like a 4.5 type guy that is just super physical and has great ball skills. Maybe more of an elite DeAndre Hopkins type player, maybe? Does anyone else have any good pro comps? 

 

I frankly don't like Chase as much as Jeudy. I think he's slower, isn't nearly the route runner, and isn't going to separate as well as a pro. I think Chase could fall off next year without Burrow, Jefferson, Helaire and his OC.