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The "Re-Opening" the Economy Thread


kfrankie

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8 hours ago, wrilbo67 said:

I don't know which COVID 19 thread the right one for this article, but this is shocking.  We're on the verge of something really bad.

 

CNBC: 32 percent of US Households missed their July housing payments

https://www.cnbc.com./2020/07/08/32-percent-of-us-households-missed-their-july-housing-payments.html

 

I’ve noticed mortgage companies ramping up as I keep getting listings on indeed for loss mitigation positions.  Similar to what they did back in 2007 before all the arm loans exploded.

 

Wells Fargo is pulling in all non essential employees from other groups to begin taking covid relief calls.

 

They always know of the bloodbath in advance.

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7 hours ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

I’ve noticed mortgage companies ramping up as I keep getting listings on indeed for loss mitigation positions.  Similar to what they did back in 2007 before all the arm loans exploded.

 

Wells Fargo is pulling in all non essential employees from other groups to begin taking covid relief calls.

 

They always know of the bloodbath in advance.

Yeah, my broker (at one of the larger financial/brokerage institutions) called me late last week to discuss the market. He strongly suggested moving to an almost all cash position ASAP. Their top analysts are predicting a downturn before EOY with Q2 reports over the next several weeks signalling the start of the decline. Cash is king...

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5 minutes ago, EmirOfShmo said:

Yeah, my broker (at one of the larger financial/brokerage institutions) called me late last week to discuss the market. He strongly suggested moving to an almost all cash position ASAP. Their top analysts are predicting a downturn before EOY with Q2 reports over the next several weeks signalling the start of the decline. Cash is king...

We want to build a garage and finish our basement, the wife thought it would be beat to spend our cash to do it.  I fought her on that and we are now in process of a cash out refi.  I told her we need to keep our cash, borrow while this money is cheap and lenders are still willing to do cash-out deals.  Luckily we are in a very good equity position, so imo it would be stupid to spend our cash when we can still spend the banks.

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2 hours ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

We want to build a garage and finish our basement, the wife thought it would be beat to spend our cash to do it.  I fought her on that and we are now in process of a cash out refi.  I told her we need to keep our cash, borrow while this money is cheap and lenders are still willing to do cash-out deals.  Luckily we are in a very good equity position, so imo it would be stupid to spend our cash when we can still spend the banks.

 

Everyone should refinance their home in the current market.  Cash-out or not, rates are ridiculous right now and everyone should lock in for 30 years.  In the past 4 months I've refinanced my home, gigantic student loan, and financed a new car with nothing down other than the trade in.  

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17 hours ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

I’ve noticed mortgage companies ramping up as I keep getting listings on indeed for loss mitigation positions.  Similar to what they did back in 2007 before all the arm loans exploded.

 

Wells Fargo is pulling in all non essential employees from other groups to begin taking covid relief calls.

 

They always know of the bloodbath in advance.

 

Italy suspended all mortgage payments for six months, when their surge started.  

 

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7 hours ago, PleaseBlitz said:

 

Everyone should refinance their home in the current market.  Cash-out or not, rates are ridiculous right now and everyone should lock in for 30 years.  In the past 4 months I've refinanced my home, gigantic student loan, and financed a new car with nothing down other than the trade in.  

 

I'm in the process of locking a refinance right now, even though I just refinanced in March. Crazy rates right now... 30 year mortgages under 3 percent. 

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7 minutes ago, tshile said:

I got quoted 2.99 on a 30 and am currently at a 3.75. Considering waiting. Don’t think things will get better

That's why I'm paying off. I'm at 4.25, and could do a total VA refi... but I can pay off now in total and it will decrease monthly expenses by half. I can use it as equity later if necessary. 

It's a long story, but I recommend paying down debt. You can't guarantee that tomorrow will be like today. Trust me on this. 

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36 minutes ago, tshile said:

I got quoted 2.99 on a 30 and am currently at a 3.75. Considering waiting. Don’t think things will get better

 

I thought about it too, but there are structural elements that make it difficult for rates to go lower- investors have to be willing to buy the loans after they're made, for example. Not saying it's impossible, but I decided it wasn't worth waiting.

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24 minutes ago, skinsmarydu said:

That's why I'm paying off. I'm at 4.25, and could do a total VA refi... but I can pay off now in total and it will decrease monthly expenses by half. I can use it as equity later if necessary. 

It's a long story, but I recommend paying down debt. You can't guarantee that tomorrow will be like today. Trust me on this. 

 

Everyone has his or her own personal situation, and so there is no one size fits all answer.

 

The flip side of that, though, is that in times of crisis, sometimes it's hard to access equity. Sometimes the events that trigger the need also make a person less creditworthy, like job loss, or to be more topical, a pandemic where lenders are tightening up on credit just when many need it most.

 

It's possible to end up with a big chunk of assets tied up and unusable when they're needed.

 

On the other hand, a low interest loan allows a person to keep assets liquid and accessible if needed, and if times are good, it's possible to pay things down quicker if desired. That kind of flexibility is valuable to me.

 

On the other hand (Fiddler on the Roof reference), there IS a tremendous quality of life benefit to a lot of people in knowing that they own the house outright, and no one can take it away. For some, that's worth a lot. 

 

I tend to be colder about those things though.

 

@PleaseBlitz is a different case, since he can literally take the money he'd use to pay his loan and stick it in a CD and profit on the difference*.

 

*I knew my earlier reference had a limited target range, combining financial theory and 70s/80s glam metal. I'm pleased at least some found it funny.

 

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Again, a loooong story and knowing this roof is mine (I like that! reference) is important. I ain't no spring chicken, so I can't depend on anything anymore. Minimize monthly expenses. Keep it simple for now. (Especially now.) 

I never even wanted to move into this house, much less own it 🤣🤣🤣

Life has the wildest twists. 

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23 hours ago, PleaseBlitz said:

 

Everyone should refinance their home in the current market.  Cash-out or not, rates are ridiculous right now and everyone should lock in for 30 years.  In the past 4 months I've refinanced my home, gigantic student loan, and financed a new car with nothing down other than the trade in.  

Not saying what you are talking about is wrong or anything, but I never understood why one would refinance just to lower payments if it means they have to then in turn start the loan over for 30 years.  My mom has refinanced her house probably 3 times or so and I don't know how many more years she has left on it, but she's been living there more than 40 years and still hasn't paid it off.  Is it only REALLY good for people who got into a super high rate loan and are early on in the loan?  

 

We have a 30yr loan right now that we've been in since 2012 so 8 years.  I'm currently overpaying by $1k (haven't been doing this the whole time or anything) which means we will pay it off like 10 years earlier or something (forget the actual number).  I was looking at possibly refinancing to a 15yr loan but if I did, it would basically force me into paying this extra $1k/month (maybe a little less) and would extend our loan out to 2035 at this point.  As of now, if I could keep doing the extra $1k/month forever, it would be done in 2032.  

 

But I am not forced into that payment, and with another kid on the way and we've decided my wife will be out of work for a few years after he is born, it's nice to not be forced into that and I can pull out that $1k/month if I want to.  We'll see how it goes for a bit though and if I see we can't go on trips like we are used to then I'll remove the extra $1k/month since that is $12k/yr.  

 

So it seems like refinancing for me just doesn't make sense currently.

 

But is there some "general rule" of when it makes sense?  Getting into another 30 year loan when you are 5+ years into a 30yr loan just seems like starting over when you don't need to.  Sure you may save a few hundred a month, but I mean in the end, the total money you are spending still may be even more.

 

EDIT:

 

I've also been contemplating putting a nice lump sum payment into there too to knock off more of the principal.  I haven't done that yet and really need to talk to someone as to whether it makes sense to do that or to invest it elsewhere.  

Edited by purbeast
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7 minutes ago, purbeast said:

But is there some "general rule" of when it makes sense?

I think the general rule is if you can save 1%+ in interest, it’s probably worth it.  Even starting the 30 year term over, you can still make additional principal payments with the interest savings + whatever else you are comfortable with.

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@purbeastYeah... You should refinance as soon as possible... You're paying interest by the day even if it doesn't look like it and it's gone forever.

 

A lot of people will refinance and just keep making the same payments they did before, which gets your house paid off WAY faster and saves a fortune in interest, because that additional 1000 you're saving would be going to equity, not interest like it is now, and if you need the cash flow, you can always drop the payments (which is the argument against the 15 year, as you noted. The savings in interest comes at a loss of flexibility).

 

It's a financial no-brainer. You're literally burning money.

 

*Edit* I see you meant you are already making additional payments of 1000, not that you could drop it by that much.

 

Why not refinance and keep doing that then, saving in interest (even if the savings isn't 1000 a month?

Edited by techboy
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