BBC: China pneumonia outbreak: COVID-19 Global Pandemic

[Larry]

4 minutes ago, No Excuses said:

There were no government enforced mass quarantines like in Hubei and other parts of China. Just aggressive testing and extreme social distancing. 

 

Just pointing out, we seem to be partially doing one of those, and really not able/willing to do the other.  

[TD_washingtonredskins]

25 minutes ago, No Excuses said:

By the way, the mortality rate in South Korea is .7% at the moment, which matches the mortality rate in China when they got their healthcare facilities to scale up. 
 

The high mortality rate we see right now in other parts of the world is likely indicative of inadequate testing and overburdened healthcare systems. 
 

Keeping fingers crossed that social distancing blunts our peak and keeps hospitals afloat.

 

Given that the cases in China are decreasing and South Korea handled it better than China...

 

Isn't it fair to assume or at least hope that we won't be hit as hard since we've had time to prepare and we saw it coming? Please no political replies...I mean more that our population is aware of it and, based on the shelves at the stores, preparing to hunker down for a couple weeks. 

[Larry]

2 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

 

Universal Health Care is the paying for it part so citizens dont have to worry or think about it, it wouldnt stop the spike by itself.  I'm assuming UBI is to account for the number of people that cant work remote.

 

I assume that part of the argument is that UBI might mean that the person who's changing the sheets in the hotel, or caring for the elderly in the nursing home, can actually afford to stay home when he feels sick.  

 

But heck, there's no proof that sick people staying home reduces the spread of diseases.  And the damage to our economy if low-wage employees stay home is surely worse than having sick people at work would be.  And lots of other soundbites.  

[TheGreatBuzz]

7 hours ago, Renegade7 said:

@TheGreatBuzz is a family in hospital coronavirus considered hardship exemption?

 

Been concerned about the troops still in South Korea.

Note this is just a personal opinion and not any kind of statement regarding exemptions from the DOD.  That said, I would guess family would be an exemption if it were immediate (parents or child, possibly sibling) and the travel was CONUS to CONUS.

7 hours ago, BigDibbs31 said:

100% true. I’m active duty military with leave approved for next week that can no longer happen. 

https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Releases/Release/Article/2112213/statement-by-the-department-of-defense-on-domestic-travel-restrictions/

 

Yea I got the call right after this.  Unfortunately I can't comment further.

[CousinsCowgirl84]

7 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

 

Universal Health Care is the paying for it part so citizens dont have to worry or think about it, it wouldnt stop the spike by itself.  I'm assuming UBI is to account for the number of people that cant work remote.

 

we ultimately got the government and insurance companies paying for the testing without universal healthcare.  Some of the measures in the emergency bill are what y’all are talking about. I think they are fine in an emergency.  Not on a permanent basis.

 

which actually reminds me of a conversation we were having about the economy.  Eh, a different thread. 

[spjunkies]

5 minutes ago, TheGreatBuzz said:

Note this is just a personal opinion and not any kind of statement regarding exemptions from the DOD.  That said, I would guess family would be an exemption if it were immediate (parents or child, possibly sibling) and the travel was CONUS to CONUS.

Yea I got the call right after this.  Unfortunately I can't comment further.

 

Tell ussss, we won't snitch on you!!!

[No Excuses]

8 minutes ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

Isn't it fair to assume or at least hope that we won't be hit as hard since we've had time to prepare and we saw it coming? Please no political replies...I mean more that our population is aware of it and, based on the shelves at the stores, preparing to hunker down for a couple weeks. 

The virus has been spreading uncontrolled in the US since mid-January. Estimates I’m seeing from reliable sources puts that at 10,000 to 40,000 cases nationwide. I think we will almost surely see a massive surge in the coming weeks that won’t account for whatever social distancing we started just this last week. 
 

We will find out how effective it was in ~3-5 weeks. Provided they can get testing ramped up...

[Larry]

1 minute ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

we ultimately got the government and insurance companies paying for the testing without universal healthcare.

 

Months later than we should have.  By having the government step in and force an exception to the rules.  

 

 

[CousinsCowgirl84]

1 minute ago, Larry said:

 

Months later than we should have.  By having the government step in and force an exception to the rules.  

 

 

Is that a failure in leadership or a reason to introduce systematic failure in leadership?

Edited March 14, 2020 by CousinsCowgirl84

[Larry]

10 minutes ago, No Excuses said:

We will find out how effective it was in ~3-5 weeks. Provided they can get testing ramped up...

 

Oh, agreed.  

 

The things we're seeing now might (or might not.  They might be too little.) make a difference a month from now.  They're not going to make a difference next week.  

 

3 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

Is that a failure in leadership or a reason to introduce systematic failure in leadership?

 

Is that a straw man with a mumbo jumbo slogan on it, or two straw men with mumbo jumbo slogans on them?  

Edited March 14, 2020 by Larry

[TheGoodBits]

6 minutes ago, No Excuses said:

The virus has been spreading uncontrolled in the US since mid-January. Estimates I’m seeing from reliable sources puts that at 10,000 to 40,000 cases nationwide. I think we will almost surely see a massive surge in the coming weeks that won’t account for whatever social distancing we started just this last week. 
 

We will find out how effective it was in ~3-5 weeks. Provided they can get testing ramped up...

Yep. Doubling rate every 5-6 days so that 10,000-40,000 will be 40,000-160,000 in 10-12 days. 80,000-320,000 in 15-18 days.
 

By then hopefully we will have started to flatted the curve, but there’s no guarantee of that. Also difficult because I don’t think enough people are altering their behaviors despite everything starting to be shut down. You won’t really see people change until they start seeing body bags being lined up outside an overburdened hospital on TV. 

[The Sisko]

1 hour ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

Italy and UK are closer structurally than China is... I’m sure if you locked people inside and told them they couldn’t come out for any reason, infections would go down. Universal Healthcare or not.  We will have to see what happens in south korea. I wouldn’t point to Covid as an example where universal healthcare results in better outcomes, though.

We don’t have data yet to prove anything but examining things with a little common sense can be helpful. In this regard you’re being willfully ignorant. Social distancing requires that schools close. That means many parents either can’t work or will risk bringing kids in to work as happened at my workplace when the first school with a confirmed case was closed. People still have to eat, pay bills, etc. Congress and Tя☭mp finally acted to provide some relief on this front, but only after a bunch of political wrangling which wasted valuable time. UBI or simply having not gutted the safety net to start with as the Grand Oligarch’s Party has done, would have made it more likely that more (certainly not all) people would be able to stay home as we need them to. Ditto for staying home instead of going in to work while sick as would usually the case.

 

Universal healthcare would have covered testing so that we’d have more situational awareness about what’s actually going on. Well, if tests were actually available, but that’s not relevant to this. It also would help decompress the EDs by not having people there that could be seen by a PCP. As it stands, people without insurance avoid healthcare until they can’t do otherwise and then go to the ED...where many of the really sick people with coronavirus would also be. Do the math on that.

 

Aside from all this is the economic effects from an already financially fragile populace suddenly made broke. In short, if you’re one of the “job creators” you’re fine but unfortunately, very few of us are fortunate enough to be able to afford to be out of work for a few days, let alone the preparedness measures the “job creators” can. 

 

You may read a lot, but if all you’re doing is cherry picking from it to confirm what you already think it’s worthless. Correction, it’s less than worthless because it gives you the false confidence of having actually researched an issue without the benefit of using the info to challenge your existing views and/or come to rational conclusions.

Edited March 14, 2020 by The Sisko

[Renegade7]

18 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

 

we ultimately got the government and insurance companies paying for the testing without universal healthcare.  Some of the measures in the emergency bill are what y’all are talking about. I think they are fine in an emergency.  Not on a permanent basis.

 

which actually reminds me of a conversation we were having about the economy.  Eh, a different thread. 

 

Theres going to be a third bill on this to lead into the recession, and I dont remember this second  conoravirus bill fully covering treatment for conoravirus, testing is jus the first step, what about being hospitalized, who pays for that? 

 

We dont know how long the spike or flattened curve will be for, and not everyone is going to be able to get unemployment benefits to make yo for lost income on this. I'm not sold in general on UBI, but for this circumstance, I'm open to put all cards in the table.

[Renegade7]

@Larry

 

Maybe, I'm misunderstanding, but I imagine this would be targeted for low income folks that like everyone is going to be impacted monetarily by this to blunt the pause button being put in the economy.  Might not have their job held if they cant work remote some already laid off, like my cousin, my wife in danger of being in this category.  This is a two-punch event, we already behind on the first one.

 

Quote

But heck, there's no proof that sick people staying home reduces the spread of diseases.  And the damage to our economy if low-wage employees stay home is surely worse than having sick people at work would be.  And lots of other soundbites.  

 

You are being sarcastic, right?

Edited March 14, 2020 by Renegade7

[Larry]

1 minute ago, Renegade7 said:

You are being sarcastic, right?

 

The last sentence in the paragraph you quoted wasn't enough of a clue?   

[Renegade7]

Just now, Larry said:

 

The last sentence in the paragraph you quoted wasn't enough of a clue?   

 

It was, I'm jus waking up : )

[Larry]

2 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

Maybe, I'm misunderstanding, but I imagine this would be targeted for low income folks that like everyone is going to be impacted monetarily by this to blunt the pause button being put in the economy.  Might not have their job held if they cant work remote some already laid off, like my cousin, my wife in danger of being in this category.  This is a two-punch event, we already behind on the first one.

 

Heard a comment from a medical expert on this subject, maybe a week ago.  

 

He pointed out that issuing advice to people to stay home for a week if they feel sick is good advice.  (And better advice than what the WH was shoving out.)  But that a lot of people won't comply with those instructions, for economic reasons.  

 

And, he pointed out, many of the people who are most likely to not comply, are in those positions where they really really need to.  "These are the people serving your food.  Caring for your elderly.  Changing the sheets in your hotel room."  

[TheGreatBuzz]

Does a person having mild MS make them more likely to be affected by this?  Mom is mid-60's and lives in south Florida. 

[bearrock]

11 hours ago, tshile said:

@bcl05 @bearrock @No Excuses @PeterMP

 

any if you know of places sharing information from physicians in the bigger areas about what’s going on and specifically decisions they had to make? Would you pm any you can share?

 

been looking into a few places but keep stumbling into intranets where I need logins to access documents

 

Trying to find resources. The cdc is dropping the ball big time. 

 

Obviously I'm woefully unqualified to opine on this, but just posting what our non profit clinic has been going off of in case it helps.  We are super small scale, so these were more ideas for best practices and things to keep in mind for us than implementing (which would be way beyond us anyway).

 

https://ccforum.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13054-020-2814-x

 

https://www.nebraskamed.com/for-providers/covid19

 

One of the doctors mentioned that China and Korea are sitting on a treasure trove of front line experience.  They are seeing some of the info start to come out from china, but it's more clinical and less operational.  Korea is still busy in the thick of it, but their version of the CDC has apparently been good about keeping track of protocol and sharing them on a country to country basis.  I would really hope that US CDC has already been in contact and this information gets disseminated soon.

[TheGoodBits]

8 minutes ago, TheGreatBuzz said:

Does a person having mild MS make them more likely to be affected by this?  Mom is mid-60's and lives in south Florida. 

a cursory google search for “multiple sclerosis covid” indicates yes. Lots of resources online for you mom’s condition,

I’d read up on them and make sure she understands how to reduce her risk. 

[bearrock]

11 minutes ago, TheGreatBuzz said:

Does a person having mild MS make them more likely to be affected by this?  Mom is mid-60's and lives in south Florida. 

 

It may depend on the treatment your mother is receiving, but if it suppresses her immune system, it may increase her chances of an infection apparently

 

https://www.nationalmssociety.org/What-you-need-to-know-about-Coronavirus-(COVID-19)

 

Quote

Many disease modifying therapies (DMTs) for multiple sclerosis work by modifying or suppressing the immune system. People with MS who are treated with these therapies can face an increased risk of infections.

 

[TheGreatBuzz]

8 minutes ago, bearrock said:

It may depend on the treatment your mother is receiving, but if it suppresses her immune system, it may increase her chances of an infection apparently

She hasn't been on any treatment for a few years.  She is stubborn like that.  She doesn't like the treatment so she just deals with the bad spells.  But she is totally functional.  Half of her face is paralyzed from the initial hit.  But she works full time at home depot. 

[Renegade7]

16 minutes ago, TheGreatBuzz said:

Does a person having mild MS make them more likely to be affected by this?  Mom is mid-60's and lives in south Florida. 

 

Mom in early 60s, I havent read or seen anything this will cause a flare up or exacerbation. Multiple countries advising to take medication as unstructured, but discuss any known for slightly compromising immune system.

[TD_washingtonredskins]

54 minutes ago, skinsfan_1215 said:

Yep. Doubling rate every 5-6 days so that 10,000-40,000 will be 40,000-160,000 in 10-12 days. 80,000-320,000 in 15-18 days.
 

By then hopefully we will have started to flatted the curve, but there’s no guarantee of that. Also difficult because I don’t think enough people are altering their behaviors despite everything starting to be shut down. You won’t really see people change until they start seeing body bags being lined up outside an overburdened hospital on TV. 

 

So, to take the average then...some of you are expecting 200,000ish cases (meaning roughly 2,000-6,000 dead) in the US? Maybe I'm stupid or naive (or both) but I don't really see it ever getting close to that. I sure hope I'm right. 

[twa]

12 minutes ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

 

So, to take the average then...some of you are expecting 200,000ish cases (meaning roughly 2,000-6,000 dead) in the US? Maybe I'm stupid or naive (or both) but I don't really see it ever getting close to that. I sure hope I'm right. 

 

do you recall the bird flu numbers?

 

it will easily be that

 

add 

sorry H1N1

 

As of mid-March 2010, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimated that about 59 million Americans contracted the H1N1 virus, 265,000 were hospitalized as a result, and 12,000 died

Edited March 14, 2020 by twa