The Official ES 2020 Free Agency Thread /Tracker... Kendall Fuller,OG Schweitzer, KP Louis, Thomas Davis, McKissic, TE Logan Thomas, OT Lucas, QB Kyle Allen (trd 5th Rd pick), RB P. Barber, LB Davis, Ronald Darby

[bakedtater1]

10 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:

I feel like I’m alone in the sentiment that there is no way I’d pay 15-16 million for Scherff. He’s injured every year, gets beat at times, and I think you could probably get 85-90% of the production from a player that costs half as much. I’d rather draft a guard in the late 1st, 2nd, or 3rd, and sign a 15 million dollar free agent. 
 

Honestly, what we should have done is pay Trent. I’d still consider bringing him back. I’d rather give Trent 20 million a year than Scherff 16. 

Scherff played a full excellent season this season...??

[carex]

1 minute ago, bakedtater1 said:

Scherff played a full excellent season this season...??

 

he played excellent but he missed three games actually

[bakedtater1]

53 minutes ago, carex said:

 

he played excellent but he missed three games actually

Ahhh ok..thanks..which ones did he miss and why?..I thought I paid attention during the season lol

[86 Snyder]

6 hours ago, HigSkin said:

Spotrac has an estimator on 2021 "market value" based on like statistical players and their contracts.   I couldn't get the entire list copied here but here's a few of interest.

 

Allen Robinson - $19.8 mil

Corey Davis - $9.9 mil

Curtis Samuel - $11.9 mil

Will Fuller - $16.9 mil

Ju-Ju Smith Schuster - $15.6 mil

Chris Godwin - $17.2 mil

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/all/wide-receiver/

 

 

 

I'm assuming Tampa isn't letting Godwin get away, so I'm all in for Allen Robinson.  

 

Bortles, Henne, Trubisky, Foles.  Its a miracle hes squeezed out three 1,000 yard seasons.  He'll turn 28 next August and his game should age well.  Bring out the big cash for him, he's one of the best wide receivers in the league.  

 

Corey Davis is a hard pass for me.  Theres a lot of Doctson to him.  He lacks killer instinct and he will frustrate us over and over again.

 

Samuel, Fuller...meh.  Samuel is too gadgetty and Fuller can't stay healthy.  He had a great season before the suspension but good luck repeating it.

 

JuJu would make for a nice consolation prize, but I really hope we aggressively pursue ARob.  He would be such a great compliment to McLaurin and completely transform our passing game.

 

[skinny21]

2 hours ago, carex said:

 

Is that 40.5 is before rollover?

 

One of the things I've wonder about, Philly's WRs seem to be where they're most able to trim money.  Any of them guys we should look at?

Looks like it includes the rollover ((estimated cap of 192 mil).  If we take out 10mil for rooks/etc, I’m not sure how we bring in multiple high value FAs.  Scherff takes around half that space by himself.  Darby is looking at probably around 10/year.  Let both of those walk, and we can bring in a higher priced receiver and ILB and not much else it seems.  

Of course, we need to consider if we’re going to re-sign/replace FAs like McKissick, Logan Thomas, Johnathon Allen, Tim Settle and pay Payne’s club option or extension the following year.... without rollover cap.  Perhaps the cap rises significantly?  

 

[Bacon]

7 hours ago, HigSkin said:

Spotrac has an estimator on 2021 "market value" based on like statistical players and their contracts.   I couldn't get the entire list copied here but here's a few of interest.

 

Allen Robinson - $19.8 mil

Corey Davis - $9.9 mil

Curtis Samuel - $11.9 mil

Will Fuller - $16.9 mil

Ju-Ju Smith Schuster - $15.6 mil

Chris Godwin - $17.2 mil

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/all/wide-receiver/

 

 

I would be surprised if Ron didn't bring in Curtis Samuel. Seems like a no brainer. 

 

Also seems worth it to buy low on AJ Green for a year or two. 

[Est.1974]

I’m a fan of bringing Samuel in, but he’s not worth those kind of numbers. He shouldn’t be getting more than average 6-8mil py on a longer term deal. I’d be offering 3/20-22 Max.

[Est.1974]

5 hours ago, CapsSkins said:

After his off the field antics, I'm OUT on JuJu. The dancing on logos and the "Browns are the browns" idiotic cringe bulletin board material that is biting the Steelers in the ass tonight, plus his price tag, makes him not worth it IMO.

that’s a fair point. He’s the youngest WR due to hit FA, still to turn 24 or there about. But yes, those recent antics smack of a maturity problem. It’s putting me off too. That’s a shame though, young with significant long term potential.

[Going Commando]

I would spend three million to try a John Ross reclamation project.  Ron Darby-type signing.  Similar situations.  Talented player with world class speed who just couldn't stay healthy in his previous stop.  Darby somehow stayed healthy the whole year and resuscitated his career, pretty remarkable considering our history.  I would much rather draft one of these good WRs this year and reclaim Ross for dirt cheap than spend 10+ million on a fairly average player like Samuel or Davis. 

 

Scherff's market value projection on Spotrac is just over 11 million.  That is money better spent than 15 million per year on a good safety like Justin Simmons/Anthony Harris or a pretty good receiver like Juju/Fuller.  He's involved on every play and he's a leader and a top five player at his position.

 

Also I'm curious about how this market is so rich for so many players this year when no one has cap space?

[DWinzit]

13 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

I would spend three million to try a John Ross reclamation project.  Ron Darby-type signing.  Similar situations.  Talented player with world class speed who just couldn't stay healthy in his previous stop.  Darby somehow stayed healthy the whole year and resuscitated his career, pretty remarkable considering our history.  I would much rather draft one of these good WRs this year and reclaim Ross for dirt cheap than spend 10+ million on a fairly average player like Samuel or Davis. 

 

Scherff's market value projection on Spotrac is just over 11 million.  That is money better spent than 15 million per year on a good safety like Justin Simmons/Anthony Harris or a pretty good receiver like Juju/Fuller.  He's involved on every play and he's a leader and a top five player at his position.

 

Also I'm curious about how this market is so rich for so many players this year when no one has cap space?

Love the idea of a Ross reclamation! Funny, his name has been linked to Washington for years (due to the Gruden connection). He would give us the home run hitter needed and already upgrading the current receivers at a low cost. Would give the team a lot of cap space to play with bringing in another FA or draft pick WR and a TE.

 

I understand the Scherff take. I had hoped the would have signed him a year ago. If they do sign him, I would live to know how much more it cost them by a waiting a year to resign him. It should be fairly substantial. 

 

Regarding Darby whose signing was excellent, he is going to be looking for big bucks after a show me contract. While he didn't have a great year, he certainly earned a bigger contract. Will they bring him back? eh?

[Skinsinparadise]

9 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:

 

I'd kill for Allen Robinson here. And we are going to be a much more attractive destination this offseason. I could see us landing him. He's the kind of outside receiver that would complement Terry perfectly, and is generally harder to find. Allen Robinson and a high end MLB would be a home run. 

 

 

If they can fit everything under the cap, he's my top guy at WR.  As much as I love Terry, Robinson IMO is at least as good and arguably even better.   They were aggressive to try to get Cooper last off season but Robinson to me is better. 

 

For me if they could, Davis and Robinson in FA, and they can call it a day after that.  I suspect we won't be so lucky and have Davis hit FA though, wil see.

 

Then get our slot guy in the draft. 

[KDawg]

17 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

I would spend three million to try a John Ross reclamation project.  Ron Darby-type signing.  Similar situations.  Talented player with world class speed who just couldn't stay healthy in his previous stop.  Darby somehow stayed healthy the whole year and resuscitated his career, pretty remarkable considering our history.  I would much rather draft one of these good WRs this year and reclaim Ross for dirt cheap than spend 10+ million on a fairly average player like Samuel or Davis. 

 

Scherff's market value projection on Spotrac is just over 11 million.  That is money better spent than 15 million per year on a good safety like Justin Simmons/Anthony Harris or a pretty good receiver like Juju/Fuller.  He's involved on every play and he's a leader and a top five player at his position.

 

Also I'm curious about how this market is so rich for so many players this year when no one has cap space?

I’m fine with a small number to try to maximize his potential. If it doesn’t work at worst we have a guy to take the top off a D. That would make a difference. 
 

But wouldn’t be a major hurdle if he doesn’t turn out. A contract that low can be added with 2-3 other guys (FA and Draft) and you can totally retool your receiver room.

 

I’m in. 

[carex]

7 hours ago, bakedtater1 said:

Ahhh ok..thanks..which ones did he miss and why?..I thought I paid attention during the season lol

 

looks like he missed Browns, Ravens and Rams after being injured against the Cards

[Going Commando]

1 minute ago, DWinzit said:

Love the idea of a Ross reclamation! Funny, his name has been linked to Washington for years (due to the Gruden connection). He would give us the home run hitter needed and already upgrading the current receivers at a low cost. Would give the team a lot of cap space to play with bringing in another FA or draft pick WR and a TE.

 

I understand the Scherff take. I had hoped the would have signed him a year ago. If they do sign him, I would live to know how much more it cost them by a waiting a year to resign him. It should be fairly substantial. 

 

I didn't realize there was a connection between Ross and Garden.  I'm out of the loop on that stuff.  I've only passively followed Ross's career since he was drafted, but I loved his potential in college.  And it looked like he was breaking out last season, before suffering a scary injury that was some kind of broken bone in his chest or shoulder.  Then a new regime comes in and brings in Higgins and Boyd becomes the guy and Ross seems to be the odd man out.  He needs a change of scenery and an opportunity to revive his career.  I like him not just as a potential deep threat, but a catch and run guy on screens.  He's a bizarrely good red zone weapon because of that YAC ability to turn regular gains into home runs.

 

And I like him on special teams too.  Give us a wee bit more juice on kick returns than Danny Johnson.

 

The best role for him is a Tyreek Hill type of situation where he motions around a lot and you try to get him working against zones and matched up all alone on outside corners.  They can't play bump and run with him and if Terry is drawing the safety help, the. Ross won't get his head taken off on all those long balls he has to wait on.

 

Re: Scherff, I hope he doesn't cost too much more this off-season, but now his agent can point to a significant individual award with that AP All Pro selection.  I'm really hoping he gives us a discount, but that'd be generous of him. I'm not sure I would do the same if I were in his shoes.

[HigSkin]

37 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

Also I'm curious about how this market is so rich for so many players this year when no one has cap space?

 Here is a good read from Pioli about the cap situation this year.

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/2021-nfl-salary-cap-conundrum-three-major-consequences-of-projected-decrease

 

1) Using the franchise tag will become more difficult. Each team can only use one franchise tag per season. Over the past 10 years, there have been three instances where at least 10 players received the tag (14 in 2020; 21 in 2012; 14 in 2011), while the lowest number of tags was four in 2014. Each year, franchise tag figures are based upon the top five salaries at each respective position, while transition tag figures are based on the top 10. Simple math tells us that an increased cost of franchise tags for each position will have a more egregious net impact on an overall cap number that is going to be reduced. Therefore, franchise tags will account for a larger percentage of cap space than in previous years.

For instance, quarterbacks playing under the franchise tag this season (see: Dak Prescott) accounted for 13.5 percent of the team's salary cap. Looking ahead to next year, even if the franchise tag number remains the same (which it won't), it will take up a larger percent of the cap due to the decreased cap number, making it more difficult for teams to justify tagging players. One of the possible outcomes of this could be that several top NFL players hit the open free agent market because teams don't have the cap space to tag them or offer a long-term deal.

 

2) Teams with less draft capital may be in for longer periods of hardship. One way teams can control spending is by having strong drafts with good, young players under their very manageable, four-year draft contracts. Consider the Seattle Seahawks, who struck gold in the 2012 NFL Draft with a haul that included DE Bruce Irvin, LB Bobby Wagner, QB Russell Wilson, RB Robert Turbin, CB Jeremy Lane and OG J.R. Sweezy. This ultimately helped the 'Hawks win a bunch of playoff games in the ensuing three seasons (lost in the Divisional Round in 2012, won the Super Bowl in 2013, lost the Super Bowl in 2014).

On the contrary, some teams have given away a lot of draft capital of late in exchange for veteran talents who are often given top-of-the-market contracts. An example of this is the Laremy Tunsil trade between the Houston Texans and Miami Dolphins in August of 2019: Houston traded two first-round picks, a second-rounder, CB Johnson Bademosi and OT Julie'n Davenport in exchange for the left tackle, wide receiver Kenny Stills, a fourth-round pick and a sixth-rounder. The Texans then gave Tunsil a three-year, $66 million extension last offseason. The trade left Houston without a 2020 first-round pick and a first- and second-rounder in 2021, all slots where they could've landed talented players for relatively cheap. Meanwhile, Tunsil's massive contract will end up accounting for 10.8 percent of Houston's cap next year, per Over The Cap.

It's a risk to invest in veteran talent because the player may not fit well into your scheme or could get injured, among other things. That's not to say decisions like this don't pay off, but it's certainly worth weighing the options before pulling the trigger on such moves, especially in this cap climate.

 

3) A major threat to veteran roster spots. Veteran contracts could be the biggest challenge for decision-makers. Although the new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) between the NFL and NFLPA agreed upon veteran salary benefit (VSB) contracts, which provide some cap relief for veteran players, it is still somewhat restrictive. The VSB in 2021 will count as $850,000 (amount of a two-year minimum salary credit), plus any additional compensation up to a max of $137,500. Though it may not seem like much, VSB contracts have saved jobs for veteran players by allowing teams to keep them for cheaper base salaries on one-year deals.

All other minimum salaries agreed to in the new CBA, including tenders for exclusive rights and restricted free agents, are going to increase and will eat up a larger percentage of cap space. Almost every player under contract in the NFL has a base salary that is scheduled to increase in 2021 from his 2020 salary, which will be reflected in each player's ratio of salary cap hit for his team. If the cap number is lower, it will only exacerbate the problem and reduce the margin. As a result, a larger number of veteran players could be forced to take minimum contracts.

[method man]

I’d like Ross as well on a bargain deal. When healthy, he has produced like a WR2. Again, to not lose our own young guys, I’d rather go for the lower tier options at WR. Jones, Hilton, Green, Ross, etc

[HigSkin]

9 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:

 

How much would tagging Dak cost Dallas this year?

Estimates are around $37 mil this year if they have to use the franchise tag again.

[KDawg]

22 minutes ago, method man said:

I’d like Ross as well on a bargain deal. When healthy, he has produced like a WR2. Again, to not lose our own young guys, I’d rather go for the lower tier options at WR. Jones, Hilton, Green, Ross, etc

Yup. Corey Davis fits the mold too being under 10M market value (if that is accurate). But in general these are the signings that I’d like to see. Value signings where production exceeds or matches the contract.

 

Signing big names to huge deals usually have contracts exceed production. That’s the opposite of the way we have to build.

[bakedtater1]

43 minutes ago, carex said:

 

looks like he missed Browns, Ravens and Rams after being injured against the Cards

Ok cool ty..I vaguely remember...he finished off the season strong for sure

[CommDownMan]

7 hours ago, skinny21 said:

Looks like it includes the rollover ((estimated cap of 192 mil).  If we take out 10mil for rooks/etc, I’m not sure how we bring in multiple high value FAs.  Scherff takes around half that space by himself.  Darby is looking at probably around 10/year.  Let both of those walk, and we can bring in a higher priced receiver and ILB and not much else it seems.  

Of course, we need to consider if we’re going to re-sign/replace FAs like McKissick, Logan Thomas, Johnathon Allen, Tim Settle and pay Payne’s club option or extension the following year.... without rollover cap.  Perhaps the cap rises significantly?  

 

 

Chase Roullier signed 4/40.5 million and has a 4.56mill cap hit year one.  With that hit were seeing the 40 mill cap space figure (that does include rollover as you mentioned).  That is ~10% of contract total.  https://overthecap.com/player/chase-roullier/5785/

 

If Scherff got a deal similar to PFF estimator (4yr/60mill), they could probably be 7-8mill year 1.  Darby with a 3/30mill, might be 6mill this year with less time to spread any SB.  https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2021-free-agency-top-100-free-agents

 

LaVonte David (3/40), Matt Milano (4/45), Jayon Brown (4/47.5), KJ Wright (2/12), Denzel Perryman (2/13).  Even with David they could make it closer to 7mill I would guess. 

 

They have us signing Anthony Harris (4/56), similar to Scherff, call it 7mill.

 

Corey Davis is listed (4/65) I'm not sure about that, but lets use that number.  Call it 9 mill this year.  I don't think he goes this high, but lets just go with it for this.

 

Curtis Samuel is listed (3/25) make it a similar Darby number at 6 mill. 

 

All that is 43 million.  Add 14 million if Smith retires and there is 11 million remaining.  Because of top 51 rule, draft picks should be closer to 6 mill this year, leaving 5 million.

 

Now this would be super aggressive and I don't see all this happening, but they could structure things to do a lot this offseason.  It would potentially be tough in future years if everything is super low.  But I wonder if they are planning as if the cap will bounce back strongly in the next few years (at least the Chase R deal seems that way). 

 

Jonathan Allen has a 10 mill cap hit this year.  I think they can work a deal this year and keep that 10 million number.

 

I will also say, while it would be aggressive, the above craziness would maintain RG/CB, add LB/FS to defense,  add WR 2/3 to offense.  Year 2 would likely be +70 million if cap goes to ~200mill, we'd have 10-12 mill space in 2022.  Not a lot, which could be tough for the 2022 names you mention.  I do think we can/should draft a McKissic and Logan Thomas replacement.  Settle and Payne become the tough ones here.

 

Not saying we should do all of this, but I do think we can be more aggressive than you think.

 

[KDawg]

11 minutes ago, jsharrin55 said:

 

Chase Roullier signed 4/40.5 million and has a 4.56mill cap hit year one.  With that hit were seeing the 40 mill cap space figure (that does include rollover as you mentioned).  That is ~10% of contract total.  https://overthecap.com/player/chase-roullier/5785/

 

If Scherff got a deal similar to PFF estimator (4yr/60mill), they could probably be 7-8mill year 1.  Darby with a 3/30mill, might be 6mill this year with less time to spread any SB.  https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2021-free-agency-top-100-free-agents

 

LaVonte David (3/40), Matt Milano (4/45), Jayon Brown (4/47.5), KJ Wright (2/12), Denzel Perryman (2/13).  Even with David they could make it closer to 7mill I would guess. 

 

They have us signing Anthony Harris (4/56), similar to Scherff, call it 7mill.

 

Corey Davis is listed (4/65) I'm not sure about that, but lets use that number.  Call it 9 mill this year.  I don't think he goes this high, but lets just go with it for this.

 

Curtis Samuel is listed (3/25) make it a similar Darby number at 6 mill. 

 

All that is 43 million.  Add 14 million if Smith retires and there is 11 million remaining.  Because of top 51 rule, draft picks should be closer to 6 mill this year, leaving 5 million.

 

Now this would be super aggressive and I don't see all this happening, but they could structure things to do a lot this offseason.  It would potentially be tough in future years if everything is super low.  But I wonder if they are planning as if the cap will bounce back strongly in the next few years (at least the Chase R deal seems that way). 

 

Jonathan Allen has a 10 mill cap hit this year.  I think they can work a deal this year and keep that 10 million number.

 

I will also say, while it would be aggressive, the above craziness would maintain RG/CB, add LB/FS to defense,  add WR 2/3 to offense.  Year 2 would likely be +70 million if cap goes to ~200mill, we'd have 10-12 mill space in 2022.  Not a lot, which could be tough for the 2022 names you mention.  I do think we can/should draft a McKissic and Logan Thomas replacement.  Settle and Payne become the tough ones here.

 

Not saying we should do all of this, but I do think we can be more aggressive than you think.

 

I think this discounts the fact that the larger cap hits happen in the years we need to re-up McLaurin, Payne, Allen.

[CommDownMan]

24 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I think this discounts the fact that the larger cap hits happen in the years we need to re-up McLaurin, Payne, Allen.

 

As I said it's not what I think or expect to happen.  This is Scherff/Darby and 4 large FA contracts.  I think Scherff and 2 FA works fine.  The point wasn't to do everything, but the original statement was "If we take out 10mil for rooks/etc, I’m not sure how we bring in multiple high value FAs.  Scherff takes around half that space by himself.  Darby is looking at probably around 10/year.  Let both of those walk, and we can bring in a higher priced receiver and ILB and not much else it seems." The point of my post was that I just don't think that is true.  I would actually hate 2 WR with Harmon returning, a draft as deep as this years.  I also don't see David leaving Tampa. 

 

Also just FYI, I included a Allen re-up this year and included in the 70+ for 2022.  So Payne and McLaurin would be left.  It also doesn't consider Collins could be cut for 7 to 11 mill next year (depending on pre/post June 1st).  Ultimately, a lot for 2022 will depend on a rising cap.  Last year the expectation was 220 mill and if we're at 175 this year, I see no way that happens.

 

But the team structured Roullier at 4.65 mill, despite an AAV of 10 per year.  The plan they follow will likely have some consistency when the dust settles.  I believe they see a team on the rise and this is a time to strike. 

[CommDownMan]

16 minutes ago, jsharrin55 said:

 

As I said it's not what I think or expect to happen.  This is Scherff/Darby and 4 large FA contracts.  I think Scherff and 2 FA works fine.  The point wasn't to do everything, but the original statement was "If we take out 10mil for rooks/etc, I’m not sure how we bring in multiple high value FAs.  Scherff takes around half that space by himself.  Darby is looking at probably around 10/year.  Let both of those walk, and we can bring in a higher priced receiver and ILB and not much else it seems." The point of my post was that I just don't think that is true.  I would actually hate 2 WR with Harmon returning, a draft as deep as this years.  I also don't see David leaving Tampa. 

 

Also just FYI, I included a Allen re-up this year and included in the 70+ for 2022.  So Payne and McLaurin would be left.  It also doesn't consider Collins could be cut for 7 to 11 mill next year (depending on pre/post June 1st).  Ultimately, a lot for 2022 will depend on a rising cap.  Last year the expectation was 220 mill and if we're at 175 this year, I see no way that happens.  I did it assuming 200 mill for 2022.  Remove 2 FA deals and those guys fit pretty easy even at 200.

 

But the team structured Roullier at 4.65 mill, despite an AAV of 10 per year.  The plan they follow will likely have some consistency when the dust settles.  I believe they see a team on the rise and this is a time to strike. 

 

[TradeTheBeal!]

THE QUEST FOR FAT BOYS NEVER SLEEPS!

 

 

[carex]

9 hours ago, skinny21 said:

Looks like it includes the rollover ((estimated cap of 192 mil).  If we take out 10mil for rooks/etc, I’m not sure how we bring in multiple high value FAs.  Scherff takes around half that space by himself.  Darby is looking at probably around 10/year.  Let both of those walk, and we can bring in a higher priced receiver and ILB and not much else it seems.  

Of course, we need to consider if we’re going to re-sign/replace FAs like McKissick, Logan Thomas, Johnathon Allen, Tim Settle and pay Payne’s club option or extension the following year.... without rollover cap.  Perhaps the cap rises significantly?  

 

 

okay, thanks. 

 

However we could have more because remember in early December there were rumors the cap could be higher than the 175 million base, with 195 listed as the best case scenario

 

while that helps all the other teams in the division too, Dallas would only have 4 mill f they franchise Dak and Philly will still be 54 million over the cap

 

I think a halfway split of 10 million to get it around 185 would have the benefit of helping us a lot and them very little

5 minutes ago, TryTheBeal! said:

THE QUEST FOR FAT BOYS NEVER SLEEPS!

 

 

this is wrong.  Leonard has been on OUR practice squad since the beginning of December.  We may have signed him to a futures contract now