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The State of the Economy Thread - “Falling inflation, rising growth give U.S. the world’s best recovery”


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1 hour ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

 

I guess we will find out if deficit spending or low interest rates when the economy is doing well matters or not, soon enough.

 

There's almost no way that adding to the deficit BEFORE this happened means that you need to spend that much more to improve the economy.  Even the MMT people will agree with that.  They'd just say it doesn't matter anyway and so we should just spend.  Others would tell you it matters because spending more is going to cause more something else (e.g. inflation) later.

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Personal anecdote here...

 

As many of you know, I am a minority/almost silent owner of a Mazda dealer in Virginia.  Part of a much larger dealer group.

 

Yesterday morning,  I spent 3 hours in a conference room with 8 other people...dealers principals and owners, boomers, multi multi-millionaires.  Seen this crowd many times before, obv.  But this time was very different...lots of personal spacing, you could see the fear in everyone’s eyes.

 

Ostensibly, the meeting was called to hammer out an employee leave/lay off policy, and we did that.  But a great deal of time was also spent talking about worst case stuff...losing stores, liquidation, the end.  

 

Bottom line.  I have to prepare to lose my store.  It is quite possible that 30-40% of all dealerships will go under this time around and we are on the block, as they say.  Even if we stay open and survive that will likely entail me putting my home or similar assets up as collateral.  Depends on the timing...

 

On a personal level, I should be fine.  I’ll just have to start over and I’m not sure if I have the energy anymore.  I was kinda planning on Mazda being my retirement plan, so to speak.

 

Strange days.

 

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1 hour ago, TryTheBeal! said:

Personal anecdote here...

On a personal level, I should be fine.  I’ll just have to start over and I’m not sure if I have the energy anymore.  I was kinda planning on Mazda being my retirement plan, so to speak.

 

Strange days.

 

The top 10 or so % will be OK. It’s the rest of us that are schtupped. I hope it works out for you Bro.

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I don't want to jump the gun too much with false hope, but the small business loan provisions in the GOP senate proposal is pretty robust.  I don't think Dems will have a lot of problem with it so I expect to see a pretty good version of that in the final package.  Once the final bill takes more concrete shape, I will try to bullet point for everyone here who might be interested (though I'm sure it will flood the news).  The cap on the loan is right now proposed to be the lesser of 10 million or various operating costs like payroll, rent, debt, health insurance, etc.  Things people can do to prepare ahead of time is to compile the above information for March 2019-March 2020.  If your business is seasonal, you can take the average of March 2019-June2019.  The loan is slated to cover operation through end of 2020.  Again, in all likelihood, some version of this will pass.

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Yes, but how will these loans be paid back if there's no income?  

 

Basically, medical experts are treating this virus like a civilization killer.  The impact across the whole globe is akin to war in every country.  Unlike a physical army, a virus isnt constrained by where  it travels. So let's call this "World War 3" and an alien invasion across the globe. 

 

I have never seen the impact response that I am seeing now on a global scale.... 

 

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1 minute ago, Fergasun said:

Yes, but how will these loans be paid back if there's no income?  

 

 

There are some forgiveness provisions in there, but that's really a moving target in these negotiations.  At minimum, it allows access to operating funds.  Worst case scenario will be bankruptcy at the end of the line, but more likely than not, some forgiveness provision will kick in before bankruptcy

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At my shop, a small business In Springfield VA, we are doing everything we can to make sure we can still service our customers.  Luckily for us, DHS has deemed the automotive repair industry an “essential” service so we should be able to continue to open during this crisis.

 

We are currently working on a plan to implement some sort of shift work to isolate two separate sections of our crew in the event that one person gets infected.

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Heads up:

 

Just talked to rental place my parents are at and they can't evict people even if they wanted to because the courts are closed.

 

Taking case by case if they even file based on proving how this affected income, expect people to fall behind, but that's where they are right now.

 

This is different answer then I got just a week ago so this is evolving based on what others are doing like HUD.

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1 hour ago, Fergasun said:

Yes, but how will these loans be paid back if there's no income?  

 

Basically, medical experts are treating this virus like a civilization killer.  The impact across the whole globe is akin to war in every country.  Unlike a physical army, a virus isnt constrained by where  it travels. So let's call this "World War 3" and an alien invasion across the globe. 

 

I have never seen the impact response that I am seeing now on a global scale.... 

 

We as a global populace, have never been so interconnected, allowing fear to spread (or viruses for that matter) so easily.

 

It's kinda to be expected at this point. 

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2 hours ago, TheGreatBuzz said:

I was supposed to go pick up my new camper that I custom ordered a few months ago.  I was picking it up Monday.  Dealer just called me and said they are being ordered to close until further notice.  Hope I still get the same APR when we get through this. 

 

Of course you will.  

 

Your first payment is April 7th.  

 

22 minutes ago, FanboyOf91 said:

How is this even legal?

 

They're wearing white collars.  

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