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The State of the Economy Thread - “Falling inflation, rising growth give U.S. the world’s best recovery”


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2 hours ago, bearrock said:

I don't want to jump the gun too much with false hope, but the small business loan provisions in the GOP senate proposal is pretty robust.  I don't think Dems will have a lot of problem with it so I expect to see a pretty good version of that in the final package.  Once the final bill takes more concrete shape, I will try to bullet point for everyone here who might be interested (though I'm sure it will flood the news).  The cap on the loan is right now proposed to be the lesser of 10 million or various operating costs like payroll, rent, debt, health insurance, etc.  Things people can do to prepare ahead of time is to compile the above information for March 2019-March 2020.  If your business is seasonal, you can take the average of March 2019-June2019.  The loan is slated to cover operation through end of 2020.  Again, in all likelihood, some version of this will pass.

 

Are there any provisions for sole proprietors? 

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44 minutes ago, EmirOfShmo said:

 

Are there any provisions for sole proprietors? 

 

Right now the qualifier is under 500 employees.  Under typical sba loan provisions, self employed owner counts as an employee so it will be covered under current guidelines.  The chances are they will be over inclusive than less.  But we may have to wait until there is final regulation to be absolutely sure.

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I have to say, I think a lot of people talking about politicians or voters being hypocritical regarding potential stimulus checks being sent out are missing the context of the current situation intentionally.  I don't think it is hypocritical to oppose a UBI, but to support a short term exemption for stimulus checks when people are being prohibited from working due to a national emergency.

 

I am generally against shooting people, but in the case of an active military battle where an enemy is firing at you... I hope I am not a hypocrite for saying go ahead and shoot that person as many times as needed.

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31 minutes ago, skinsmarydu said:

There are things our government simply cannot afford to do, and that's one of em...especially if it's not means tested on the top end. 

 

Just pointing out:  If you're talking about sending a lump sun to every person in the US?  

 

1)  Those rich people you're worried about getting it?  It's trivial to them.  

 

2)  And, depending on where you draw your cutoff?  They're a tiny fraction of the population.  The amount you save by putting in a cutoff isn't worth arguing over.  

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16 minutes ago, visionary said:

 

 

Because as we all know, the big risk here is that we might accidentally have a big stimulus.  Which would slow the recovery.  

 

(Wonder how the author has felt about the GOP using deficit spending to prop up the economy, before now.)  

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2 hours ago, Larry said:

 

Just pointing out:  If you're talking about sending a lump sun to every person in the US?  

 

1)  Those rich people you're worried about getting it?  It's trivial to them.  

 

2)  And, depending on where you draw your cutoff?  They're a tiny fraction of the population.  The amount you save by putting in a cutoff isn't worth arguing over.  

 

Which is why moderates should negotiate it down to eligibility by something like SSN and most recent AGI instead of laughing it off.

 

Having that in practice even while being adjusted would be more efficient then trying to help the states keep up with getting inundatded unemployment offices. How many of those states websites have crashes now?

 

If they could transition to saying based on what they'll put federal tax refunds on, could have groundwork for something pretty unique and efficient.  The federal government could very effectively get money to people very quickly and easily for any reason it deems necessary in this and future emergencies.

Edited by Renegade7
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3 hours ago, Nerm said:

I have to say, I think a lot of people talking about politicians or voters being hypocritical regarding potential stimulus checks being sent out are missing the context of the current situation intentionally.  I don't think it is hypocritical to oppose a UBI, but to support a short term exemption for stimulus checks when people are being prohibited from working due to a national emergency.

 

I am generally against shooting people, but in the case of an active military battle where an enemy is firing at you... I hope I am not a hypocrite for saying go ahead and shoot that person as many times as needed.


not really a fair comparison and it is fair to point out the hypocrisy of supporting a small government and thus elect people with the goal of destroying the government to “keep it out of my life” but then during a crisis want money from them or expect that government to help you.  
 

sorry the small government is unable to assist and “get in your life.” just have to rely on the private sector to assist them as they’ve always maintained would happen. 

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8 minutes ago, Momma There Goes That Man said:


not really a fair comparison and it is fair to point out the hypocrisy of supporting a small government and thus elect people with the goal of destroying the government to “keep it out of my life” but then during a crisis want money from them or expect that government to help you.  
 

sorry the small government is unable to assist and “get in your life.” just have to rely on the private sector to assist them as they’ve always maintained would happen. 

 

It was an extreme example, but stand by the point being made.  I think you can support actions made in an emergency, but be against them being regular policy.  If you fly in emergency supplies in a catastrophic situation, that is different than regularly flying those supplies to people everywhere regardless of their situation.

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10 minutes ago, Springfield said:

That stimulus is dumb.  Seriously dumb.

 

Like, I’m not losing my job, but if I did, then the stimulus wouldn’t be a drop in the bucket.

 

They need to freeze mortgages, credit cards, utilities, etc if they want to make a real difference.

 

Would that need a mandate from Congress via a bill or can entities do that on their own? 

 

Mentioned some places I know are stopping eviction and notices, like HUD, student loan interest is frozen, executive branch did that without Congress. Some utilities are stopping disconnection notices. Do banks really need a mandate to pause mortgages for say 3-4 months and put 3-4 months to the end of them?

 

Think in order for some to really pause charging, government needs to help with their expenses to make up for operating costs and stop in revenue, that may need congress.

Edited by Renegade7
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Who cares about the economy in wartime... I mean.. really?  Its obvious that traditional rules aren't going to cut it this time around.  Right?  

 

If aliens invaded would people care about the stick market?  This is a humanity killing virus...

 

Edit: typing on phone and realized it was originally misphrased.... "if aliens invaded would people kill"... 

Edited by Fergasun
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Quote

After already saying the coronavirus outbreak will push the US into a recession, Goldman Sachs on Friday updated its estimates and now thinks the fallout could be even worse than it expected.

Goldman Sachs dramatically cut its US economic forecast and is now expecting gross domestic product to decline by 24% in the second quarter of 2020 because of the coronavirus pandemic. A drop of that size would be a record, nearly 2 1/2 times the 10% drop seen in 1958.

 

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/us-gdp-drop-record-2q-amid-coronavirus-recession-goldman-sachs-2020-3-1029018308?fbclid=iwar2fn6cj143xcx2n7pnpp93cqags5mwze4n1khgnyfxymyaclot8tjelp9u

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