The State of the Economy Thread - “Falling inflation, rising growth give U.S. the world’s best recovery”

[CousinsCowgirl84]

Just now, clietas said:

 

Define everything because there are still a lot of businesses open?

Enjoy semantics?

[Captain Wiggles]

1 minute ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

Enjoy semantics?

 

Yes. Yes I do. 

[No Excuses]

We’re in uncharted waters, with the earliest expectation of reopening the economy in June. And even then we will likely see more shutdowns this year... hopefully not nationwide but definitely around the country.

Edited April 2, 2020 by No Excuses

[Heisenberg]

8 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

that’s what happens when you shut everything down.... 

 

And things would be going a lot better with potentially a million+ people dying?

[Larry]

46 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

that’s what happens when you shut everything down.... 

 

.... and don't arrange to pay the workers, like pretty much every other country did.

 

Edited April 2, 2020 by Larry

[Renegade7]

31 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

that’s what happens when you shut everything down.... 

 

Please post if you or someone tests positive and it changes your mind. 

 

I don't wish that in you, it just seems that's the only thing that will get you to let this whole "we shouldn't close the economy like this" go.

 

We already talked about the economy probably coming to a halt anyway because of folks afraid if getting sick.  Do you have any stats to show something herd immunity saving the economy, because UK saw that stats, went 180, then next their Prime Minister tested positive.

[twa]

26 minutes ago, Larry said:

 

.... and don't arrange to pay the workers, like pretty much every other country did.

 

 

we do have unemployment payments as well as the one time payment and some incentives to retain workers..... besides the option of working in essential services.

 

of course required unemployment ins payments by businesses are probably gonna rise quite a bit.

 

 

[Fergasun]

If this goes through May, we can kiss our economy as we know it goodbye. Commercial tenants are going to default, and its going to have the cascading effect of blowing up commercial real estate.  Out of work individuals will do the same and we will be in 2008 on steroids.  

 

It's going to be pretty sad if the undoing of our economy is because of a health care system inadequately prepared to handle and protect us from a pandemic -- because of offshoring and globalism in the past 20 years (and more).  We still don't have enough masks, tests and PPE for doctors, how can regular folks be working without being at risk?  

 

Get ready for a New Deal 2.0 and some type of jobs program, because formerly "on their feet" people will be knocked down and get pretty unruly when thrown out of their dwellings and are concerned about feeding themselves and family.  

 

I am mentally preparing for addition people in my household --- beyond extended family.... unthinkable for my wife, but if it comes down to it I won't let my friends get thrown outside.  

 

 

[Die Hard]

37 minutes ago, Fergasun said:

If this goes through May, we can kiss our economy as we know it goodbye. Commercial tenants are going to default, and its going to have the cascading effect of blowing up commercial real estate.  Out of work individuals will do the same and we will be in 2008 on steroids.  

 

Exactly. I live in Ontario. All non-essential businesses are shut down... and today, our premier is announcing a refinement of ‘essential’ businesses — to exclude some originally on the list.

 

As a small business owner (non-essential) myself (no employees) running an independent healthcare/wellness practice in a commercial building with a lease up in January. I’ve renegotiated with my landlord for the next 2 months at 50% rent (forgiveness, not deferral). However, best estimates here are now July 1st.... which means it’s pretty likely I’ll be moving out in June 30th and defaulting on the rest of the lease. Good luck getting anything from me in small claims court! 

 

I can’t go 3.5 months without ANY revenue (I don’t have a profession that can work remotely).... shut down, not only by a pandemic but officially by my professional regulatory body and government, and cover the cost or rent for a quarter of a fiscal year! This isn’t a slow month or a recession..... this is a catastrophic world event. Contracts/agreements in the old world no longer apply, as far as I’m concerned. Heck, if business can bail on employees with 2 weeks severance..... I’m giving my landlord 3 months as far as I’m concerned.

 

The government strategy, at the moment, is to make small business loans easily available for little-to-no interest. There’s absolutely NO WAY I’m going to go into debt... just to come back into this new economy. Business is going to be SLOW for at least a year, maybe 2. We’re all going to have to rebuild our businesses from scratch... and it’s going to start with businesses giving away 50% discounts to get people in. It’s going to be a nightmare. So I’m not going to take a business loan.... to start anew with 1-arm tied behind my back.

 

So I’ll soon be looking for some cheap new rent in all the empty plazas.

Edited April 2, 2020 by Die Hard

[No Excuses]

Good thing we had these geniuses in charge, preparing for what was coming:

 

 

[Dan T.]

18 minutes ago, Die Hard said:

 

Exactly. I live in Ontario. All non-essential businesses are shut down... and today, our premier is announcing a refinement of ‘essential’ businesses — to exclude some originally on the list.

 

Good to hear from you Die Hard, though it sucks under these circumstances and the situation you describe.

 

People, if you value Extremeskins, take a minute to thank this guy, who was one of the pioneers of the site way back at the beginning.

[Die Hard]

3 minutes ago, Dan T. said:

 

Good to hear from you Die Hard, though it sucks under these circumstances and the situation you describe.

 

People, if you value Extremeskins, take a minute to thank this guy, who was one of the pioneers of the site way back at the beginning.

 

Hi Dan! I logged off all the main social media (Twitter, Facebook, Instagram) last April for good. I just visit ES, and a Buffalo Sabres message board community. Just to read and stay informed. Personal choice/evolution..... I don’t feel compelled to share my opinions any more, at large. But I was triggered by Fergason’s post 🙂 

 

I have to say, between Apple News and the posts on here... you ALL are well ahead of the curve than anywhere else I’ve seen and people I talk to - even if they get the info, they’re a couple of days behind. So that’s a tribute to this community! So thank you ALL! Sincerely.

 

 

[Larry]

28 minutes ago, No Excuses said:

Good thing we had these geniuses in charge, preparing for what was coming:

 

Check out the text under his picture in that tweet, too.  

 

[88Comrade2000]

1 hour ago, Dan T. said:

 

Good to hear from you Die Hard, though it sucks under these circumstances and the situation you describe.

 

People, if you value Extremeskins, take a minute to thank this guy, who was one of the pioneers of the site way back at the beginning.

Pioneer. Wasn't he Papa/Mama.  He's the one who founded ES and created it.

 

Stay safe, DH and good luck.

 

I don't think we can even fathom what the long term economic impact of this will be.  People are assuming things will bounce right back, once we open back up.  That might not be the case. 

[skinfan2k]

1 minute ago, Rdskns2000 said:

 

I don't think we can even fathom what the long term economic impact of this will be.  People are assuming things will bounce right back, once we open back up.  That might not be the case. 

 

I think for those who can not furloughed and still getting paid, it will be an economic boom.  for me, i am getting paid, not working and not spending any money outside of groceries.  You bet when this is over, i am spending a ton of vacations and my favorite hobbies. 

[No Excuses]

17 minutes ago, skinfan2k said:

I think for those who can not furloughed and still getting paid, it will be an economic boom.  for me, i am getting paid, not working and not spending any money outside of groceries.  You bet when this is over, i am spending a ton of vacations and my favorite hobbies. 

 

Economic recessions are usually ok for people who can work through them. My wife and I are starting the process of building our own home. We were shooting for starting in 5 years. Now we plan on starting in 18 months since land and material costs should be much cheaper over the next two years.

 

--------

 

Government really ****ed up by not aggressively adopting the Scandinavian model of incentivizing employers to maintain payrolls. They actually still ended up doing a variation of this but the rollout was too slow and the messaging has been god awful. We actively support a lot of local small businesses in our community from hair stylists to pet groomers, and everyone we reached out to is really confused on how to proceed with getting loans etc. We ended up pre-paying for a lot of the services we normally use but I think a lot of us will unfortunately see many local businesses shuttered for good.

 

I have a bad feeling that a multi-year recession is on the way unless government steps in to boost local economies through job/infrastructure programs or something similar.

[skinfan2k]

@No Excuses Where are you building your house?

 

[CousinsCowgirl84]

8 minutes ago, Rdskns2000 said:

I don't think we can even fathom what the long term economic impact of this will be.  People are assuming things will bounce right back, once we open back up.  That might not be the case. 

if we are talking about keeping everything shut down till a June, with another round of shutdowns in oct-dec then you can bet it will take a long long long time to recover. Once commercial tenets start defaulting on bank loans... banks get a lot of bad debt can’t issue new loans... business’s can’t get investment capital.... 

 

It’s not surprising. This and much worse is expected when you shut down like we have done.

 

 

A few people before asked what I think the economic damage would have been us we just just let it spread.
 

I’m not sure. People want to go out and spend money now despite the shutdowns... which I agree is selfish.

 

If everything was open, I’m not sure one-two million people dead would have really moved the needle as far as consumer confidence. I’m not sure, it’s possible. 

A lot of people don’t seem to concerned about 100k dying enough to truly follow the stay at home orders.

 

Of course, I’m not saying we should have necessarily let the virus run it’s course because it’s beyond my capacity to imagine that scenario.

 

Im mainly saying economic destress was 100 percent knowable and when people loose they’re jobs that’s the price they are going to have to pay for keeping an unknown amount of people alive.

whether or not the shutdown is “worth it” depends on what the unknown amount of people saved is and how long we have to keep everything closed for, and what sort of global instability that comes. All of those things are impossible to quantify for me.

 

i thought worst case when this begun was around 15k if we just let it run its course... we are going to go way over that even with all the shutdowns, so I’d say that increases the “unknown number of lives saved”.

 

[No Excuses]

6 minutes ago, skinfan2k said:

@No Excuses Where are you building your house?

 

 

We were initially thinking outer parts of MoCo or near Aldie/Ashburn but if there really is a long-term recession we might be able to swing Vienna/McLean or Potomac.

[Die Hard]

48 minutes ago, Rdskns2000 said:

Pioneer. Wasn't he Papa/Mama.  He's the one who founded ES and created it.

 

Stay safe, DH and good luck.

 

I don't think we can even fathom what the long term economic impact of this will be.  People are assuming things will bounce right back, once we open back up.  That might not be the case. 

 

So many long-time posters! What a privilege to talk to some old friends. I hope you and the entire ES community (and your families) keep well/healthy, stay safe, and support each other in any way possible. That’s the strength of community.

 

Thank you! Fortunately for my family, our lifestyle is very isolationist and minimal (rural live). Our biggest impact (adjustment) is financial (business). And I’m trying to forecast 1-2-3-6 month plans (worst-case scenarios), if nothing changes. Everything is on the table right now.

 

Personally, I think this is a game-changer. Right now, as it should, it’s about an immediate (acute) response - just need to survive this. But I think we’re all going to go through a deep healing process on the other side of this, and no one will be spared.

 

 

[Die Hard]

I was reading an article 2 weeks ago.... where an independent business association shared that 1 in 3 small businesses will struggle to pay their bills after 1 month. What do you think is going to happen to small businesses in months 2, 3, 4 (which are not only likely, but highly probable)? 

 

Do we assume these large corporations are just going to going to hire everything back? Can you imagine what it’s going to be like working for HR? Lmao

 

And I’d love to see poll results of people who WON’T return to their previous employer after being laid off! Haha

 

 

[gbear]

I agree diehard (great to see you on again).

 

I dont think our economy looks the same on the other side of this. I question how an economy where the growth has been largely financed through debt continues when we have stretch where there are massive defaults. I think many people will begin doing the thinking of weighing walking away from existing obligations versus starting over.  How does our banking industry deal with massive defaults.

 

It makes me think of the old axiom, "when you owe $100k, the bank owns you. When you you owe $100 billion( or heaven forbid trillions), you own the bank." At this point, individuals dont own the bank, but as a class, small business owners and households own the banks. The question is how do we restructure our debt to allow financing of future projects.

 

I see people talking about college loan forgiveness. Why stop there? What about home loan help? Other things will need to be done if we are to preserve a capitalist economy post corona virus.

Edited April 2, 2020 by gbear

[No Excuses]

Re: small business loans. No one knows what the hell is going on. 
 

 

[Die Hard]

10 minutes ago, No Excuses said:

Re: small business loans. No one knows what the hell is going on. 
 

 

 

It’s the same circumstance here (in Canada). The government made some promises.... but the execution is going to be a cluster muck. 

 

See many contradictory anecdotal stories in the news already. Off to an inauspicious start! LMAO

11 minutes ago, gbear said:

I agree diehard (great to see you on again).

 

I dont think our economy looks the same on the other side of this. I question how an economy where the growth has been largely financed through debt continues when we have stretch where there is massive defaults. I think many people will begin doing the thinking weighing walking away from existing obligations and starting over.  How does our banking industry deal with massive defaults.

 

It makes me think of thr old axiom, "when you owe $100k, the bank owns you. When you you owe $100 billion( or heaven forbid trillions), you own the bank." At this point, individuals dont own the bank, but as a class, small business owners and households own the banks. The question is how do we restructure our debt to allow financing of future projects.

 

I see people talking about college loan forgiveness. Why stop there? What about home loan help? Other things will need to be done if we are to preserve a capitalist economy post corona virus.

 

I love it! And that was my main talking point with my landlord. He has a lot more to lose than I do! It’s so infrequent that you get to play that card in life! LMAO It’s like winning a hand with a Queen in a the non-trump suit in Euchre.

Edited April 2, 2020 by Die Hard

[FanboyOf91]