The State of the Economy Thread - “Falling inflation, rising growth give U.S. the world’s best recovery”

[skinfan2k]

How sad is it that all americans don't have a simple bank account?  

[NoCalMike]

My employer laid off all contract workers across the board, regardless of department. This likely was done based on forecasts, because honestly, at the moment the volume of work hasn't seemed to go down much at all, but it likely will in the next few weeks as it seems like people still aren't taking this serious enough. 

[LD0506]

[TradeTheBeal!]

We’ve had some encouraging dialogue with the SBA recently.

 

Glimmers of hope...

[TheDoyler23]

15 hours ago, skinfan2k said:

How sad is it that all americans don't have a simple bank account?  

 

I'd be all for banks being allowed to have interest-prizes to encourage people to bank. Essentially people banking could contribute the first few cents of their interest and it's rolled into prizes for a few winners.

 

States don't like it messing with their own lottos, though. 

[No Excuses]

This country is about to learn another very difficult lesson about electing imbeciles and bad people into positions of power. 
 

[Larry]

8 minutes ago, No Excuses said:

This country is about to learn another very difficult lesson about electing imbeciles and bad people into positions of power. 

 

I keep hearing that.  But I don't see any signs of this "learning" that people keep predicting.  

[Renegade7]

3 minutes ago, Larry said:

 

I keep hearing that.  But I don't see any signs of this "learning" that people keep predicting.  

 

Kentucky and Kansas have democrats as governors elected since Trump was elected?

[Cooked Crack]

11 minutes ago, No Excuses said:

This country is about to learn another very difficult lesson about electing imbeciles and bad people into positions of power.

Think about the tax savings though. This is what the people wanted.

 

Quote

The new online system was part of a series of changes designed to limit benefits. The ultimate goal — which it delivered on — was to lower unemployment taxes paid by Florida businesses. A 2011 analysis done by the Florida Legislature estimated that the changes pushed by Scott would save businesses more than $2.3 billion between 2011 and 2020.

 

[No Excuses]

1 minute ago, Larry said:

 

I keep hearing that.  But I don't see any signs of this "learning" that people keep predicting.  

Well we did get 8 years of Barrack Obama after the last time a GOP president left the country in shambles.

 

Country has a short memory for sure. But an economic collapse worse than 2008, maybe just maybe, will actually make people think before treating elections like a sporting event.

Just now, Renegade7 said:

Kentucky and Kansas have democrats as governors elected since Trump was elected?

The GOP is going to learn very quickly that electing the biggest buffoon in the country and gaslighting everyone for four years was not in fact a winning strategy. 
 

A guy who was elected by a margin of 70,000 votes in three states isn’t winning re-election in a country where 1/4th of the working population is unemployed and exposed to the broken social safety nets his party has rejoiced in destroying. 

[No Excuses]

———

 

Although the flip side of this is that Florida not only elected a guy as governor who committed Medicare fraud to the tune of $300M, they then also sent him to the senate. The same guy who as governor designed a UI system with the intent of inflating numbers, cutting taxes for wealthy business owners and making life difficult for the poor. 
 

Time is a flat circle.

[Cooked Crack]

Just now, Renegade7 said:

 

Kentucky and Kansas have democrats as governors elected since Trump was elected?

People had to start feeling the pain before trying another option. They'll go back to their usual voting habits after a term.

[Renegade7]

9 minutes ago, Cooked Crack said:

People had to start feeling the pain before trying another option. They'll go back to their usual voting habits after a term.

 

The data from elections since 2016 don't support that.  Especially true in the suburbs where for the most case of if it flips blue it does flip back, and that has GOP nervous AF. 

 

Just look at the way some GOP are talking about mailing out ballots in Georgia to every registered voter, that's fear, my dude. I don't believe the possibility of Jones losing his senate seat in Alabama does justice to him getting it in the first place.

 

Edit: Kansas was an experiment from hell the Republicans pulled the plug on themselves, but damage was done and lost the governor seat, they aren't going back to that.

Edited April 3, 2020 by Renegade7

[TradeTheBeal!]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-02/ford-expects-talks-with-u-s-on-cash-for-clunkers-like-stimulus

[GoCommiesGo]

1 minute ago, TryTheBeal! said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-02/ford-expects-talks-with-u-s-on-cash-for-clunkers-like-stimulus

 

Did that increase sales / revenue for you? A lot of the reports I've seen are very vague on the success of the plan. 

[Cooked Crack]

25 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

 

The data from elections since 2016 don't support that.  Especially true in the suburbs where for the most case of if it flips blue it does flip back, and that has GOP nervous AF. 

 

Just look at the way some GOP are talking about mailing out ballots in Georgia to every registered voter, that's fear, my dude. I don't believe the possibility of Jones losing his senate seat in Alabama does justice to him getting it in the first place.

Maybe in some places but in Kentucky, Republicans still held on to their legislative supermajorities and state wide offices. I don't think we're going to see changes in places where most of the electorate is rural. If Bevin wasn't so unlikable with terrible policies he'd have won.

[TradeTheBeal!]

Just now, GoSkinsGo said:

 

Did that increase sales / revenue for you? A lot of the reports I've seen are very vague on the success of the plan. 

 

Like any other stimulus, factory/govt/etc, it tended to act mostly as a pull-ahead mechanism.  In other words, it gave customers who were considering a purchase in the next 8-12 months a strong reason to BUY NOW.  Also, just like any other legislation there were consequences that were realized down the road that were less than ideal.

 

But, I think the law had three clear goals:

 

1). Get product moving for the factories and the dealers and do it quickly.

2). Generate considerable amounts of state and local tax revenue and do it quickly.  

3). Raise the country’s overall fleet MPG at a time when dependence on oil imports was very uncomfortable for us.

 

Tough to argue that this did not occur.  I was on the ground as a GSM for a Lincoln-Mercury/Mazda store at the time and it helped us out quite a bit.  The govt paperwork involved was profoundly unpleasant, of course.  But everyone expected that.  

 

I still socialize with with a few guys from that era and we always look back and laugh about all the ridiculous bureaucratic hoops we had to jump through.  No regrets, tho.

[gbear]

With the entire world's economies set up for a coronavirus crash, I think there are two ways out.  The first is massive inflation and unrest as banks fail due to cascading inability to make scheduled payments by people and businesses.  As banks fail, money available for consumers and businesses becomes much more expensive.  For an idea what that could be like, I direct you to Jamaica.  When I was there in Jan, I asked why all the houses are half built.  I was told interest rates are btw 17-20% so all houses are built as they get money to do it.  When interest rates sore, the costs for everything goes up and sales drop.   Just think how many fewer houses or cars would be sold and what that does for related industries.  Now lets look at our tax structure.  Currently with our model, we tax every time money changes hands.  There are some wealth taxes like real estate taxes we pay at the local level, but most of the time we pay when money changes hands.  If money no longer changes hands as much, then less is collected.  That means we either change the tax rate, run deficit's (states and localities can not), or provide less service. How happy will citizens be without good roads, emergency services, and fewer hospitals?  I think down this road lies severe public unrest.  I am not sure our current political/economic model survives this road.

 

A second way forward is a massive stimulus like nothing we have seen because our current proposals do nothing beyond putting a band-aid on massive 3rd degree burn.  The stimulus I propose would be a world wide forgiveness of debts paid for by the governments of the world.  I am talking a stimulus where if you owe, the federal government writes a check (or hits a few keys).  I am not talking about just student loans.  I mean mortgages, student loans, medical debt, back rent, etc.  I would like to see a global reset.  From a given date, the balance of your bank account is from what you earn going forward minus what you spend.  For what it's worth, I would have the U.S. do it for all our national debt too. That may cause inflation on a grand scale if only one country does it, but if all do?  It's only inflationary if your currency is seen as less valuable/stable than some other currency.   I say let all the countries take on debt to deal with the coronavirus, and then pay it all out by increasing monetary supply by enough to cover debts.  I am trying to figure out who gets hurt more on this path than the first. 

 

Am I crazy?

[Renegade7]

22 minutes ago, Cooked Crack said:

Maybe in some places but in Kentucky, Republicans still held on to their legislative supermajorities and state wide offices. I don't think we're going to see changes in places where most of the electorate is rural. If Bevin wasn't so unlikable with terrible policies he'd have won.

 

Honestly, I'd say its too early to tell what will happen to the demographics of these states and affect they will have on high level state government elections. 

 

You right some counties in some states are like 90% republican anyway, but if the death rate in the older population in rural areas hits a certain mark, that will put a huge dent in some of these governor elections that have been close the last couple years, like Georgia and Florida.

 

Because this is recession thread, I'd rather talk with you about this elsewhere, but I believe it's fair to say the demographic change in the electorate and the economy are both going to change between here and November.

[Fergasun]

I am shocked we are still not having an open debate regarding the depression we are intentionally causing.  It's not about, "get back to work... ignore the virus"... it's about "let's walk straight into economic disaster." Even countries that reopen their economies have had to shutdown again (Singapore).  

 

We are just hitting the beginning of this.  Our social net is not set up for this.

[Larry]

12 minutes ago, gbear said:

Am I crazy?

Was planning on liking your post as I read the first paragraph. And then I got to the part where you suggested that the government should just wipe out its own debt. 

[Renegade7]

12 minutes ago, gbear said:

 

Am I crazy?

 

No, you aren't.

 

I'm not an economist, but I get your point on why we should consider clean-slating some debts that at this rate probably won't be paid to prevent a hole none of us can get out of.

 

Having said that, it will need a level of coordination I don't think this administration can pull.  Because so much of the national debt is actually social security, I don't trust them not to say they don't owe it anymore, don't think they won't try if it comes to that.

[Renegade7]

4 minutes ago, Fergasun said:

I am shocked we are still not having an open debate regarding the depression we are intentionally causing.  It's not about, "get back to work... ignore the virus"... it's about "let's walk straight into economic disaster." Even countries that reopen their economies have had to shutdown again (Singapore).  

 

We are just hitting the beginning of this.  Our social net is not set up for this.

 

In concerned Trump is going to sell the point no matter how prepared he was all he could do was lower the death rate, not stop this inevitable depression. 

 

That's gonna be his way out of losing the economy, then blame the states for the death rates come November for them not being prepared enough.  

 

The real key will be if he proposed the necessary safety nets that Biden will it say we can't afford it or the economy should heal itself and low taxes will help that.  But this goes back to @gbear point, how do you generate the tax revenue to deal with this? 

 

It's maybe too early to tell how much we'll actually need, but how did we come up with the money for the new deal from FDR? 

[gbear]

Yes, so much our debt is social security.  However, we have been paying for social security on as we go basis since Vietnam.  Now as we start to draw more out of it than we are putting into it, how do you think it will be paid?  It will be paid with current federal tax dollars not social security tax dollars unless we suddenly cut social security payments.  The interesting question I get from that is whether it is even worth separating the social security tax from the federal tax.  Currently the separation only helps those making a lot of money (relative term) because social security is only collected up to $128,400.  Every dollar after that is not subject to the social security tax. 

 

As for whether this administration could pull off something requiring the amount of coordination needed, I share your doubts. I just don't see any easy way forward regardless of who is in charge, and this would go against so many economic theories I studied in college and since,  Despite the difficulties in implementing a plan like mine, I still see it as the easiest/least bad path forward if one is trying to maintain productivity and our current economic model.  I sincerely hope a smart mind than mine comes up with the better path.

Edited April 3, 2020 by gbear

[Captain Wiggles]

12 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

 

It's maybe too early to tell how much we'll actually need, but how did we come up with the money for the new deal from FDR? 

 

We didn't and still haven't. Borrowed money and put it on Uncle Sams credit card. Much like the debt incurred by WW2. Tho war bonds were sold to kinda help raise money during the war. 

 

Nothing in this country has ever really been paid for. It all just goes on the national debt.

Edited April 3, 2020 by clietas