Vaya Con Dios, Manny! The plight of the 2018 Orioles

[Spaceman Spiff]

Hate to bust up the Tailgate with all the talks of Trump, package bombs in Austin and whether it should be deemed terrorism, Trump, social agendas, Trump, school shootings/gun control, Trump, Russia and Trump...

 

But baseball season starts on March 29th.  Twins at Orioles.  3:05 start.

 

I don't feel good about this season, but the Orioles did sign Alex Cobb today.  Cashner/Cobb should be an upgrade over Miley/Ubaldo.  Still, the rotation is full of guys that are anywhere between #2s and #5s, depending on the day.  The offense is still a high strikeout, low OBP, station to station plodding type with guys that need to have hyooooooge seasons if we want to compete.

 

I think this is a 75 win team. 

 

Anyway, this is what we've been waiting for.  Get your asses in here  @Bang @Hersh @DM72 @TheDoyler23 @DCSaints_fan @ixcuincle @RonArtest15 

 @justice98 @KingGibbs @pjfootballer @GOSKINS_08 @capcrunch98 @abdcskins @SkinFanInMinn 

 

LETS GO BIRDS!

 

 

Edited March 21, 2018 by Spaceman Spiff

[GOSKINS_08]

It’s probably just early season excitement but I really like the Cobb signing. I think 77-87 wins. Depends on how Gausman and Bundy continue to develop. I really like our lineup to score runs, yeah it’s the same ol high K lineup but through the course of the season will keep you in most games. I think we compete for a wildcard spot while Boston and New York compete for the division. Still, I’m excited for Orioles baseball to return.

[Hersh]

I think this just became an 83-85 win team. Cashner and Cobb are a lot better, on paper, than Miley/Ubaldo. Manny should be incredibly motivated. 

 

I didn't think more than 70 win team before today. The reason for that number was that I figured the O's would be far enough out that Manny would have been traded along with a few other guys and the rest of the season would have been auditions for 2019. 

 

Cobb also means Castro is likely back in the bullpen and Mike Wright is gone. Also, means less rule-5 pitchers. 

 

I'd actually up the win total a little if the O's waived Trumbo and ate his salary. He looked awful last year and he looked bad before his injury this spring. I'm thinking that going into the season, guys like Davis and Trumbo won't bat above the 6-hole. Also, I expect Tillman to be on a really short lease. 

 

Overall, I can't decide how I feel about the moves. I was ready for Manny to be traded and I hate the idea of losing all these guys for a couple draft picks. 

[pjfootballer]

We have 2 threads. I’m so confused- like our starting pitching. 

[KingGibbs]

I gotcha Spiff. Signing Cobb is a huge shot in the arm. I'm much more excited now than I was just earlier today. **** the Yankees!

[Bang]

Checking in, skipper!

I am excited as always for opening day, and it's early this year, so real baseball sooner is good.

No idea what to expect this year,, i am nervous about the pitching as awlays, the one move they seemed to make on the starting rotation .. this guy looks to me to be on the downside. Not so sure i like moving Manny to short..  what was broken that we need to fix it?

But, here's hoping I have to post the Crusher video 50 times this year.

 

go O's!

~Bang

[DCSaints_fan]

2 hours ago, pjfootballer said:

We have 2 threads. I’m so confused- like our starting pitching. 

 

When I posted, I remember checking and seeing there wasn't a 2018 O's thread yet.   Since the timestamp says Spaceman Spiff beat me, I guess we'll roll with his thread.  Unsure how to delete my thread.

 

Edit: Also, looks like we got Cobb but our starting rotation still has huge question marks.  Bundy was our "ace" with a 4.24 ERA, followed by Gausman with 4.68.  On good teams that makes them maybe a 3/4 starters, not top two like they were here.   Everyone else posted ERAs over 5.   Our additions have been Cashner and now Cobb.  Both of them had pretty good years last year but prior years haven't been great.   So our hope is that both work out, or we see Bundy/Gausman elevate their play

Edited March 21, 2018 by DCSaints_fan

[SkinFanInMinn]

Thanks for the notification of the new thread!

 

I also like the Cobb acquisition but our starting pitching still is at best slightly below average.  In the AL East, that's not going to cut it.  I don't have a good feeling about this year but maybe they can catch fire and surprise some people.  Go Os.  Bring on opening day.

[Spaceman Spiff]

My bad, i didn't know you started one @DCSaints_fan I thought someone had started one, pretty sure I even posted in it but when I did a forum search I didn't see it.

 

Agree that the rotation still has huge question marks.  On top of that, Bundy was the luckiest pitcher in the bigs last year according to fangraphs:  https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/who-got-unlucky-starting-pitcher-edition/

 

Cashner doesn't strike anyone out, IIRC his bb/k rate isn't spectacular.  It's good that he gets grounders though and he should be better than Miley/Ubaldo but I'm not sure he's leaps and bounds better.  

 

Cobb is the best pickup of the offseason, by far.  The rest of the offseason is a dud.

[justice98]

I'm actually looking for a bounce back year from Gausman.  He had an ERA almost 2.5 runs lower in the second half.  Gausman should basically live in that 3.5-4.2 ERA neighborhood.  If we can get that guy, which is what I think the true Kevin Gausman is, we could have a 1-3 that will keep us competitive .....3 days out of the week.  Because, that's where Bundy and Cobb should live too. 

 

The lineup I'm not enthused about.  Because now, we're in a situation where I'm gonna be upset when Manny isn't dealt at the deadline for a steep package. 

 

And if Mancini falls off even a little bit, they'll be in big trouble. This lineup can't afford it.  They didn't really improve at any position. 

[RonArtest15]

Gonna suck watching DD hold on to Manny all year just to come away with nothing. 

 

I hate this feeling...just absolutely HATE it.  I also loathe the front office more than ever after reading about the ineptitude in their approach to dealing with Manny and his camp. 

 

70-75 wins sounds about right. 

[justice98]

When you think about it, the only top shelf thing this team has going for it to look forward to is Schoop.  Unless Hunter Harvey is the next Chris Sale or somebody. 

 

They've made a bunch of moves and non-moves that have impacted the future negatively.  If they get anything of consequence for Manny, perhaps that could change everything. But 2018 is liable to be pretty rough. 

 

But Cobb is probably the best FA pitcher they've signed since..... I don't know when. 

[TheDoyler23]

We we never have to see Ubaldo or Miley pitch again. Celebrate! 

 

I refuse to make this season the funeral of Manny. After three years of having to watch the unraveling of the Skins Blond Jesus contract talk, I’m just over it. OVER. IT. I hope he has a 10WAR season and propels us to either the World Series or an amazing package of players. But I’m NOT going to spend this season gnashing my teeth about it. 

 

I’m going enjoy some baseball and hope for the best. The beer will still be cold. 

[Hersh]

13 hours ago, TheDoyler23 said:

We we never have to see Ubaldo or Miley pitch again. Celebrate! 

 

I refuse to make this season the funeral of Manny. After three years of having to watch the unraveling of the Skins Blond Jesus contract talk, I’m just over it. OVER. IT. I hope he has a 10WAR season and propels us to either the World Series or an amazing package of players. But I’m NOT going to spend this season gnashing my teeth about it. 

 

I’m going enjoy some baseball and hope for the best. The beer will still be cold. 

 

I'm gonna spend this season gnashing my teeth over Schoop not being locked up and the O's likely not extending him ever. I think he has another huge year and may be a better hitter than Manny. 

13 hours ago, justice98 said:

When you think about it, the only top shelf thing this team has going for it to look forward to is Schoop.  Unless Hunter Harvey is the next Chris Sale or somebody. 

 

They've made a bunch of moves and non-moves that have impacted the future negatively.  If they get anything of consequence for Manny, perhaps that could change everything. But 2018 is liable to be pretty rough. 

 

But Cobb is probably the best FA pitcher they've signed since..... I don't know when. 

 

If the O's give Sisco the playing time he should get, he's going to hit a lot and be top-5 in ROY voting. 

[abdcskins]

Bad news....we're going to win the AL pennant but lose the World Series.

[Redskin4ever]

I wish they had traded Machado his offseason and I still hope they do before losing him for nothing. But, I’m not going to worry about that. I’m just going to sit back and enjoy the season. I don’t have high expectations, but Buck’s track record says the team will be competing for a Wild Card sport into August and possibly into September. Long term that may not help the team as they will hold on to Machado, but I’m not going to let that ruin the enjoyment of watching the games. Hopefully I’ll get up for a game or two this year. I went to one last summer and saw them beat the Rangers.

 

Opening Day in baseball has always been my favorite start of any sports season. Perhaps it goes back to being a kid and being excited about the start of a new season of my own. But also, it’s the one day of the year the Orioles are guaranteed to be in first place. It gives me hope for the new season and even if that quickly fades, I can at least enjoy the start of the season.

[TheDoyler23]

10 hours ago, Hersh said:

 

I'm gonna spend this season gnashing my teeth over Schoop not being locked up and the O's likely not extending him ever. I think he has another huge year and may be a better hitter than Manny. 

 

Would be great to hear on the eve of opening day that he signed a 4/60 extension starting in 2019. Not going to hold my breath though. The biggest problem with extending someone whom has just had a career year is the possibility of it not happening again (see Davis, Christopher Lynn). 

 

[Hersh]

2 hours ago, TheDoyler23 said:

 

Would be great to hear on the eve of opening day that he signed a 4/60 extension starting in 2019. Not going to hold my breath though. The biggest problem with extending someone whom has just had a career year is the possibility of it not happening again (see Davis, Christopher Lynn). 

 

 

True, but I love that he is getting better every year and he's having a big spring. To me it would cost at least 5/$100 mill at this point. 

[TheDoyler23]

17 minutes ago, Hersh said:

 

True, but I love that he is getting better every year and he's having a big spring. To me it would cost at least 5/$100 mill at this point. 

 

I may be underestimating his salary requirements.   But that would make him only short of Cano and Alutve in AAV and I was thinking more like Daniel Murphy money.

 

 

[SloppyOneXXVI]

This team is going to compete, Cashner as our 4 HAS to be better than anything Ubaldo/Miley ever did for us.  We had 86 starts last year (86! More than half the games!) with pitchers whose ERA was above 5.5.  That's terrible on an epic level.  Trumbo/Davis can't be worse than last year, and I'm betting Manny has a career year.  I think Mancini regresses a bit as a sophomore, hopefully not too much.  Our lineup is still pretty much the same as last year, which would have been fine without such terrible pitching.  

 

Here's the problem: We're still a WC team at best, if we're lucky.  So we'll keep Manny, probably try to add another bullpen arm and add a platoon guy at the deadline... and then lose Manny/Britton/Brach next year for nothing.  That's a bummer.  The real wildcard though is Hunter Harvey.  If he can come up in late June/early July and finally make good on his potential then we have a better shot.  If nothing else out 2019 pitching staff should be solid with Cobb/Gaus/Bundy/Cashner/Harvey.  That's probably the best 5 we've had during our run of being relevant over the past 6 years.  

 

I'm still looking forward to the season.  There's something great about opening day, it is one of my favorite days of the year.  I didn't renew my season tickets, but if they look good early maybe I'll get a 10 game package.    

[abdcskins]

I haven't been following super close, but I follow the O's on Facebook, and I am constantly seeing Chance Sisco spring training highlights. Is he gonna get a roster spot? I don't see why not.

 

As for the season I am fairly optimistic. A lot depends on Trumbo and Davis. Are we going to get the 2013/15 version of Chris Davis? Or something worse? There are potentially some good bats in that lineup. Santander and Hays are intriguing. And can't wait to see a full year from Beckham. Cashner and Cobb are good additions. I think Gausman has wicked stuff, if he can be mentally focused and physically prepared I think he can give us some good innings. I don't know what to expect from the bullpen. This team will go 84-78.

[pjfootballer]

Bundy, Gausman, Cashner, Cobb and Tillman looks a lot better than it did a couple of months ago. But they still need to prove it.

[Rocky21]

Tillman will be on the IR before it gets hot outside. 

[justice98]

I've just yet to hear what will be different about Tillman this year compared to last other than he can't be worse.  He didn't exactly earn a spot on the 2018 roster, let alone a spot in the rotation.

[TheDoyler23]

13 hours ago, abdcskins said:

I haven't been following super close, but I follow the O's on Facebook, and I am constantly seeing Chance Sisco spring training highlights. Is he gonna get a roster spot? I don't see why not.

 

It may be helpful that Sisco plays every day in the minors for a few weeks as Joseph is the starter. They may also want to keep him down for a few weeks to prevent his service clock from running. Same for Hayes. I think they'll start Rasmus for a few weeks and see if he starts off hot. 

 

 

2 minutes ago, justice98 said:

I've just yet to hear what will be different about Tillman this year compared to last other than he can't be worse.  He didn't exactly earn a spot on the 2018 roster, let alone a spot in the rotation.

 

I guess it depends on where he can release the ball. Last year, his arm slot was dropped because of the shoulder injuries. Hopefully he's had the opportunity with an off season throwing program and this spring to figure out how to locate with the newer slot. We'll see.