Let's All Get Behind Alex Smith! Or Not!! (M.E.T.) NO kirk talk---that goes in ATN forum

[TD_washingtonredskins]

2 minutes ago, DJHJR86 said:

 

This is what worries me.  If Smith plays like he has in KC, based off of the averages of both QBs in terms of TDs (last 3 seasons), we are losing 9 total touchdowns from the position.  Now granted, Guice + better could make that up, but it's still a concern.  And we are also looking to decrease the turnovers (on average) to about 7 less than years with Kirk.  The caveat is that Smith put up these numbers with 75 less attempts than Cousins.  So the TDs could increase just as much as the turnovers.  Who knows?

 

It's certainly a valid concern - it's unknown right now. Maybe Smith won't come anywhere close to Kirk's production and the experiment fails. Maybe he flourishes like other QBs have with Gruden and we finally have a solid, wire-to-wire season. I think it's exciting that we don't really know...

[Morneblade]

On 7/8/2018 at 2:25 PM, ExoDus84 said:

 

Counterpoint: Smith had a good running game and a stout defense to help him out most of his time in KC. He didn't need to sling it around to win games. Last season, when his defense fell apart, he was forced to air it out more, and had his best statistical season. To me, that says he can be effective slinging the rock when need be. I think he will be plenty effective in Jay's offense. 

 

Also, sacks taken by QB:

 

2017: Cousins 41 - Smith 35

2016: Cousins 23 - Smith 28

2015: Cousins 26 - Smith 45

Total: Cousins 90 - Smith 108. 

 

Smith took an average of 6 more sacks per year, with almost all of that coming in 2015. Not a huge deal. During that same time period, Aaron Rodgers was sacked far more than both of them by the way. 

 

 

Maybe I should have clarified. I've seen people say that Kirk get sacked too much. Alex get sacked more, but that apparently is ok.

 

I think Smith will be "ok" in the offense if it stays relatively healthy. His best year by far was last year, and when you look at his career, there is a significant drop off between Smith and Cousins in terms of production. Last year, Cousins put up similar numbers to Smith, with a big difference in turnovers. Cousins however, did so with a patchwork OL, no WR threats at all, no Reed, no running game to speak of, and a defense that was beat up and really bad.

 

And people think that Smith is a marked upgrade? Really?

 

Now, if you look at their best years, it's really no contest. Cousins smashes Smith. And yet a lot of people here think Smith is an upgrade. Really?

 

For the life of me, I don't see it, or get how people come to that conclusion. The one thing you can say Smith is better at is being careful. Being conservative. Being Checkdown Charlie. If the rest of the team can elevate their game, this will work. I have zero problems with a top 10 D, top 5 rusher (and Chris Thompson doing his thing), and a efficient passing game. It might not be sexy, but you can win Superbowls with it, but your rushing game and D NEED to be top tier. But I don't know that we're there in either phase yet.

[MisterPinstripe]

17 minutes ago, DJHJR86 said:

 

This is what worries me.  If Smith plays like he has in KC, based off of the averages of both QBs in terms of TDs (last 3 seasons), we are losing 9 total touchdowns from the position.  Now granted, Guice + better could make that up, but it's still a concern.  And we are also looking to decrease the turnovers (on average) to about 7 less than years with Kirk.  The caveat is that Smith put up these numbers with 75 less attempts than Cousins.  So the TDs could increase just as much as the turnovers.  Who knows?

Smiths TD% over the last 5 years is 4.2 and INT% is 1.4, so with those numbers he would throw 3 more TDs to 1 more pick.

 

Those 75 throws from Cousins would come out to 3 more TDs as well and 1 INT. Cousins TD% is 4.7 and INT% is 2.3 or so.

 

Really not a big difference, so we shall see.

[MisterPinstripe]

6 minutes ago, Morneblade said:

 

 

Maybe I should have clarified. I've seen people say that Kirk get sacked too much. Alex get sacked more, but that apparently is ok.

 

I think Smith will be "ok" in the offense if it stays relatively healthy. His best year by far was last year, and when you look at his career, there is a significant drop off between Smith and Cousins in terms of production. Last year, Cousins put up similar numbers to Smith, with a big difference in turnovers. Cousins however, did so with a patchwork OL, no WR threats at all, no Reed, no running game to speak of, and a defense that was beat up and really bad.

 

And people think that Smith is a marked upgrade? Really?

 

Now, if you look at their best years, it's really no contest. Cousins smashes Smith. And yet a lot of people here think Smith is an upgrade. Really?

 

For the life of me, I don't see it, or get how people come to that conclusion. The one thing you can say Smith is better at is being careful. Being conservative. Being Checkdown Charlie. If the rest of the team can elevate their game, this will work. I have zero problems with a top 10 D, top 5 rusher (and Chris Thompson doing his thing), and a efficient passing game. It might not be sexy, but you can win Superbowls with it, but your rushing game and D NEED to be top tier. But I don't know that we're there in either phase yet.

i still dont think I have seen anyone saying that he is a marked upgrade. I think they are comparable with Smith just protecting the ball way better.

Smith TD% is 4.2 where Cousins is 4.7, so the biggest difference is Reid typically doesnt throw as much as Gruden. INT rate is 1.4% versus 2.3 or 2.6 depending on if you use the last 3 years for Cousins or the last 5 like Smith.

 

Over the last 3 years Cousins fumbled the ball 31 times, which is a ton, so limiting those fumbles as well as INTs will have a big impact on the team. I think that is the biggest difference between the two.

[Morneblade]

On 7/8/2018 at 1:10 PM, Mr. Sinister said:

 

This wasn't depressing at all 

 

Not really meant to be depressing. Just what I consider to be a honest assessment of Alex Smith as a QB. He does some things well. He is not great at some other things. He's not Tom Brady, but he's not Jamacus Russell either.

 

[Morneblade]

1 minute ago, MisterPinstripe said:

i still dont think I have seen anyone saying that he is a marked upgrade. I think they are comparable with Smith just protecting the ball way better.

Smith TD% is 4.2 where Cousins is 4.7, so the biggest difference is Reid typically doesnt throw as much as Gruden. INT rate is 1.4% versus 2.3 or 2.6 depending on if you use the last 3 years for Cousins or the last 5 like Smith.

 

Over the last 3 years Cousins fumbled the ball 31 times, which is a ton, so limiting those fumbles as well as INTs will have a big impact on the team. I think that is the biggest difference between the two.

 

I disagree. I have seen A LOT of people saying that this is a marked upgrade. And I'm the "hater" that compares him to Mark Brunell. And I should clarify that, not Mark Brunell solely as a Redskin, but as a career overview. A smart, efficient, moble QB, that plays well with a good supporting cast, but not a Aaron Rodgers type that can put a team on his back and win.

[burgngold fan]

18 minutes ago, Morneblade said:

 

I disagree. I have seen A LOT of people saying that this is a marked upgrade. And I'm the "hater" that compares him to Mark Brunell. And I should clarify that, not Mark Brunell solely as a Redskin, but as a career overview. A smart, efficient, moble QB, that plays well with a good supporting cast, but not a Aaron Rodgers type that can put a team on his back and win.

You say that like Kirk could put a team on his back? Never seen that from him either!  

[Morneblade]

Just now, burgngold fan said:

You say that like Kirk could put a team on his back? Never seen that from him either!  

 

I have. Maybe you should watch more games. When you win 7 games with the amount of injuries and general lack of talent in a lot of areas, that is proof right there. And there were quite a few games that Kirk won on his arm over the years. We certainly have not won many with a big running game and stout defense over the past few seasons, have we?

[Mr. Sinister]

29 minutes ago, Morneblade said:

 

Not really meant to be depressing. Just what I consider to be a honest assessment of Alex Smith as a QB. He does some things well. He is not great at some other things. He's not Tom Brady, but he's not Jamacus Russell either.

 

 

I actually agree. I haven't  really bought into the notion that Smith (from a tangible standpoint) in this system will be a marked upgrade over Cousins.

 

Seeing it the way you break it down though is just like "Damn... that hurts" ?

[Morneblade]

Just now, Mr. Sinister said:

 

I actually agree. I haven't  really bought into the notion that Smith (from a tangible standpoint) in this system will be a marked upgrade over Cousins.

 

Seeing it the way you break it down though is just like "Damn... that hurts" ?

 

Well, if it makes you feel better, if the front 7 is as good as it could be, Richardson becomes Tyreek Hill and Guice is the real deal, then you have a team that looks a lot like teams that Smith was successful in before.

[Cooleyfan1993]

2 weeks from today we’ll be getting tweets about Alex Smith during the first 2018 training camp practice!!! Can these next 14 days hurry up??? 

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

 

It's certainly a valid concern - it's unknown right now. Maybe Smith won't come anywhere close to Kirk's production and the experiment fails. Maybe he flourishes like other QBs have with Gruden and we finally have a solid, wire-to-wire season. I think it's exciting that we don't really know...

 

I typically fly to see a couple of games a year, was toying with doing the home opener versus the Colts but i just couldn't resist doing the opener in Arizona.  The subplot for that game should be insane.

 

A. Alex Smith -- and the new offense.  How does it work?  Does it look like the KC offense with a lot of pre snap motion. RPO, RO

B. Derrius Guice -- the next Clinton Portis

C. Jay -- like Jay a lot but he's on the spot to see if he can finally win an opener. 

 

I think like 2012, they should have some element of surprise that will help Alex early.  Guice also is an unknown commodity until he plays.  Is Reed back? 

 

My gut as to how all of this plays out and "gut" is the operative word.  Alex has a good year.  Guice is a stud and goes toe to toe with Barkley for ROTY. Jay gets off to a good start.  As for the tit for tat as to Kirk.  Kirk typically is a slow starter so I gather that might happen again.  He then heats up.  When he does heat up, he will put up better numbers than Alex and I'd bet money we will be seeing national segments about him making that next climb.  I agree with those who say if they make the playoffs this year -- that alone will indicate a good year from Alex.

 

Listening to JP Finlay on the air today, I get a strong vibe that its a playoffs or people get fired kind of year.   So I don't know if that adds some urgency to the season or make people uptight or none of the above.

[Mr. Sinister]

2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Listening to JP Finlay on the air today, I get a strong vibe that its a playoffs or people get fired kind of year.   So I don't know if that adds some urgency to the season or make people uptight or none of the above.

 

Yeah I kinda gleaned that from a lot of the Winter/Spring meetings and activities. With this division/conference, and those expectations, I truly hope they've found something, because I don't know how many more regime changes I can take (without the obvious change that doesn't bear repeating in thus thread).

[DJHJR86]

1 hour ago, Morneblade said:

For the life of me, I don't see it, or get how people come to that conclusion. The one thing you can say Smith is better at is being careful. Being conservative. Being Checkdown Charlie. If the rest of the team can elevate their game, this will work. I have zero problems with a top 10 D, top 5 rusher (and Chris Thompson doing his thing), and a efficient passing game. It might not be sexy, but you can win Superbowls with it, but your rushing game and D NEED to be top tier. But I don't know that we're there in either phase yet.

 

Wish I could like this post more than once.

 

We have national pundits (as well as our head coach) who have said that this offense has upgraded significantly with the addition of Alex Smith.  And this is not factoring in Guice or an improved defense.  Just Smith.  And how Reid and Gruden run a very similar system, which should help Alex transition well.  But when you look at the actual stats, it couldn't be further from the truth.

[crabbypatty]

2 hours ago, DJHJR86 said:

 

If he plays on the same level he played in KC:

 

3500-3700 yards, 65% completion, 20 TDs and 7 INTs.  Close to 40 sacks.  5 fumbles, 2 lost.  He'll rush for about 350-400 yards, and get 2 rushing touchdowns.  

 

These are his career averages over the past 5 years.  

 

 

I think much of Smith's lesser numbers in KC had a bunch to do with Reid's offense as well though. Reid has always had a pretty ugly offensive scheme. It works but qb's won't have glorious numbers.. Through 10 seasons with Reid, Mcnabb only passed 3,500 yards 3 times.. I think a bunch of that had to do with the basic type of offense that Reid ran. McNabb also usually averaged around 20 td's a year, with around 8-9 int's. which is spot on with Smith's averages over 5 years with Reid in KC... Mcnabb sometimes threw more td's but also oftentimes less. Unless Smith is a direct clone of Mcnabb (they are similar in a bunch of ways) I think it really points to the limitations of Reid's offensive schemes rather than the player(s).

You have 2 different players under the same HC with almost identical averages.. that points to the scheme/coach to me.

[bedlamVR]

45 minutes ago, Morneblade said:

 

I have. Maybe you should watch more games. When you win 7 games with the amount of injuries and general lack of talent in a lot of areas, that is proof right there. And there were quite a few games that Kirk won on his arm over the years. We certainly have not won many with a big running game and stout defense over the past few seasons, have we?

 

The defense shut down the packers in 2016 shut out the destiny raiders, rams in 2017 and pretty much won the seahawks game - I am not meaning to deminsih Kirk here but to say the Skins over the last three years has been a one man team in Kirk cousins is more than disingenous. 

 

You can point to the games we lost - For example, people want to put all the blame on the D for the Saints loss. But with the ball in his hand dying minutes of regulation Kirk throws a dumb ass intentional pass to no one - no pressure just a dumb ass mental block (I know the league would eventually say it got the call wrong - but it was close enough to be called)  I- 15 yard penalty knocking us out of FG range - 10 seconds run off  which I seem to remember didn't matter because Kirk - put the team on his back with time expiring -  took a sack coughed up the ball and the rest we all know. 

 

Okay so I am being equally unfair in blaming Kirk for the loss - and it really wasn't his fault it was a team loss - but people talk on here as if Kirk was the one gleaming example in a sea of nothingness - 

 

He wasn't 

 

I am not sure if Smith is an upgrade - i think they are about the same - but I do know while Andy Ried is one hell of a HC/OC he Smith last year was the FIRST 4000 yard QB he had ever 

 

Jay made Andy Dalton a 4000 yard 33 TD guy the year before he took this job - Andy Dalton - In 2014 he somehow made Colt McCoy look like a QB 

 

What i am saying is to compare 2 qbs they really need to be in the same system and I think it is exciting to see someone like Smith paired with someone like Jay. 

 

Its July - lets get behind OUR guy - if you think it is wrong some couldn't get behind Kirk (because they liked the other guy)  - while he was here - you are right - but equally does it really make any sense to not get behind Alex for the same reason ? 

[DJHJR86]

23 minutes ago, crabbypatty said:

 

I think much of Smith's lesser numbers in KC had a bunch to do with Reid's offense as well though. Reid has always had a pretty ugly offensive scheme. It works but qb's won't have glorious numbers.. Through 10 seasons with Reid, Mcnabb only passed 3,500 yards 3 times.. I think a bunch of that had to do with the basic type of offense that Reid ran. McNabb also usually averaged around 20 td's a year, with around 8-9 int's. which is spot on with Smith's averages over 5 years with Reid in KC... Mcnabb sometimes threw more td's but also oftentimes less. Unless Smith is a direct clone of Mcnabb (they are similar in a bunch of ways) I think it really points to the limitations of Reid's offensive schemes rather than the player(s).

You have 2 different players under the same HC with almost identical averages.. that points to the scheme/coach to me.

Dalton averaged 3787 yards, 27 TDs, 16 INTs, and a 60% completion over the course of 3 years with Gruden's system.  The only thing equal with Cousins is TDs.  

[NoCalMike]

Was Joe Montana a system QB?  After all the WCO offense was specifically designed arround his high accuracy but lower level of arm strength. 

 

Also, who is to say Cousins is not a system QB? Besides sporadic play, the majority of his career has been under Gruden's offense.  This will be his first season under a new coordinator and offense. 

 

One thing I am looking forward to seeing (hopefully turn around) is red zone production.  I am hoping Guice will have a positive effect on options inside the 30 & 20 yard lines.  Always felt the last couple of seasons the offense got very predictable when crunched into that tighter space.

[TD_washingtonredskins]

3 minutes ago, NoCalMike said:

Was Joe Montana a system QB?  After all the WCO offense was specifically designed arround his high accuracy but lower level of arm strength. 

 

Also, who is to say Cousins is not a system QB? Besides sporadic play, the majority of his career has been under Gruden's offense.  This will be his first season under a new coordinator and offense. 

 

One thing I am looking forward to seeing (hopefully turn around) is red zone production.  I am hoping Guice will have a positive effect on options inside the 30 & 20 yard lines.  Always felt the last couple of seasons the offense got very predictable when crunched into that tighter space.

 

I'm not ready to call Cousins a system QB, but I do think Gruden's play-calling and scheme have elevated him above what his raw talent and skills would do in an average system.

 

I agree about the red zone, but one concern I have is that we got predictable and that's not the personnel (unless Gruden was overcompensating). If Perine or Kelley just failed to punch it in or Cousins continuously screwed up clever plays, I'd be more optimistic. But usually we'd run off-tackle, throw some low-percentage fade, and then try to run a rollout. That's tough to pin on any of the players. I hope the added dimension of Smith's legs plus the hopeful upgrade at RB help us down there. 

[NoCalMike]

38 minutes ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

 But usually we'd run off-tackle, throw some low-percentage fade, and then try to run a rollout. That's tough to pin on any of the players. I hope the added dimension of Smith's legs plus the hopeful upgrade at RB help us down there. 

 

Anyone have any tape on Alex Smith throwing a fade pass to the corner of the end zone? Ha.

[TD_washingtonredskins]

4 minutes ago, NoCalMike said:

 

Anyone have any tape on Alex Smith throwing a fade pass to the corner of the end zone? Ha.

 

Based on how many times he calls it, we better hope Gruden vetted that throw before agreeing to this trade! 

[Darth Tater]

@TD_washingtonredskins

 

We were about middle of the pack in the red zone. Scary thing is that KC was one of the worst.  In 2016, both of us were putrid but in 2015 both of us were decent.

[TD_washingtonredskins]

1 minute ago, Darth Tater said:

@TD_washingtonredskins

 

We were about middle of the pack in the red zone. Scary thing is that KC was one of the worst.  In 2016, both of us were putrid but in 2015 both of us were decent.

 

Right, I don't expect Smith to be a savior down there...I'm just hoping the combination of several things can help us improve: 

 

Smith's running ability (occasionally we scored on Cousins running read-option so I assume Smith could do it just as well, if not a little better)

Guice being better than our RBs 

Better play-calling (no reason to expect this I guess - Gruden probably is who he is going into his 5th year)

Health - Thompson and Reed are underrated weapons in the RZ

[bedlamVR]

1 hour ago, DJHJR86 said:

Dalton averaged 3787 yards, 27 TDs, 16 INTs, and a 60% completion over the course of 3 years with Gruden's system.  The only thing equal with Cousins is TDs.  

 

Okay but the first season was his rookie season - and Jays first season coaching in the NFL (other than a stint as an offensive assistant 

 

Cousins didn't start until year 4 -  2nd year in Jays system here ...  Just saying - it is not really an apples to apples comparison .... how hard is it for people to actually give our coach some credit ? 

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

3 minutes ago, bedlamVR said:

how hard is it for people to actually give our coach some credit ? 

Between this and you saying that it's not allowed to be enthusiastic about Alex around here, I'm beginning to think that you're not even reading the board or your interpretation is simply way off.  I constantly see Jay commended for his offensive mind.  There's a gang of us though that don't think you can just insert anyone into his system and poop 4K yards though.  Doesn't mean we don't like the guy or give him credit.