Josh Doctson the new 50/50?

[goskins10]

45 minutes ago, Dissident2 said:

 

"Saw what you wanted to see." Yeah, that makes total sense. I, a Redskin fan, want to see our number one draft pick fail. I want to see our number one pick, who was drafted by a guy (SM) I've championed, turn out to be a bust. Yeah, OK. Brilliant points all around. 

 

Edit 

 

My opinions pretty much mirror Kevin Sheehan's. I haven't written him off as a bust at this point. I hope he proves my current doubts about him to be unfounded. But I have pretty much the same questions about him after this season as I did after last, and what's worse, I have those questions after actually seeing him play all year.

 

So feel free to say why my current opinion on him might be wrong (a quote from Gruden in a season-ending presser isn't really strong evidence, imo), but don't suggest that I "want" to see the guy fail or have somehow blinded myself to all of Doctson's "greatness" this season. Far from it. I'm just going by what my eyes and gut tell me, and I wish they both told me something different.

 

When i say you saw what you wanted to see the meaning is that you have already decided what you think of him and therefore are seeing what you want to see to validate that narrative. 

 

As for Sheehan and Cooley for that matter (whop has flip flopped on Doctson and is the one who started this narrative and then back tracked), they are free to their own opinions. I just think they are bull**** and quite frankly hypocritical. Again, we all talk about how we just want guys to play football and when they do but have some struggles we come up with this narrative that they are not trying hard enough. They need to show they care more. Well, no they do not. They need to work hard but how it works best for them. People are different. We are so used to seeing the diva WRs that one with a calm head is labeled as not caring enough. 

 

And I like that you provide color analyst opinions as validation or your point and then say the HCs opinion does't matter. But to each their own. No value in continuing. You have your opinion which you are clearly entitled to. I just disagree. Neither of us is changing so time to move on. 

[Unbias]

15 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

He's not even Rod Gardner at this point. At least Gardner had a 1000 yard season.

 

He's more 30/70 than 50/50, but with that said the talent is there. Hopefully he breaks out in year 3 similar to Jordan Reed.

 

This is an interesting point. Many are using Gardner as an example of a 'miss', but he actually showed some promise early in his career. Just for conversation here's his career stats:  

 

Games		Receiving									Rushing
Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	Tgt	Rec	Yds	Y/R	TD	Lng	R/G	Y/G	Ctch%	Rush	Yds	TD	Lng	Y/A	Y/G	A/G	YScm	RRTD	Fmb	AV
Career					91	62	498	242	3165	13.1	23	85	2.7	34.8		5	24	0	16	4.8	0.3	0.1	3189	23	3	27
4 yrs		WAS			64	61	463	227	2997	13.2	22	85	3.5	46.8		5	24	0	16	4.8	0.4	0.1	3021	22	3	25
1 yr		CAR			11	0	16	9	84	9.3	1	15	0.8	7.6									84	1	0	1
1 yr		GNB			2	1	10	4	67	16.8	0	33	2.0	33.5									67	0	0	1
1 yr		KAN			14	0	9	2	17	8.5	0	13	0.1	1.2									17	0	0	0
2001	24	WAS	WR	87	16	16	101	46	741	16.1	4	85	2.9	46.3	45.5%	1	16	0	16	16.0	1.0	0.1	757	4	1	6
2002	25	WAS	WR	87	16	15	141	71	1006	14.2	8	43	4.4	62.9	50.4%	1	1	0	1	1.0	0.1	0.1	1007	8	1	8
2003	26	WAS	WR	87	16	16	115	59	600	10.2	5	35	3.7	37.5	51.3%								600	5	1	6
2004	27	WAS	WR	87	16	14	106	51	650	12.7	5	51	3.2	40.6	48.1%	3	7	0	11	2.3	0.4	0.2	657	5	0	5
2005	28	2TM			13	1	26	13	151	11.6	1	33	1.0	11.6	50.0%								151	1	0	2
		CAR		87	11	0	16	9	84	9.3	1	15	0.8	7.6	56.3%								84	1	0	1
		GNB	wr	82	2	1	10	4	67	16.8	0	33	2.0	33.5	40.0%								67	0	0	1
2006	29	KAN		85	14	0	9	2	17	8.5	0	13	0.1	1.2	22.2%								17	0	0	0

 

After 2 seasons in the NFL Gardner was targeted 242 times, had 117 catches for 1747 yards and 12 TDs.

 

Comparing to Doctson, after 2 NFL seasons he's been targeted 78 times, has 34 catches for 568 yards and 6 TDs. 

 

So for an apples to apples comparison Gardner was quite a bit ahead of Doctson at this point in their respective careers. 

[Boss_Hogg]

At this point Josh is very similar to Rod Gardner; however with Josh you can actually see he has the raw talent to be a good wide receiver. Gardner didn't have that talent.

 

I hope the team sticks with him, maybe get a better WR coach or sign a veteran WR on the off-season to help nurture him. 

 

I like Josh, I hope they don't give up on him yet 

[skins4eva]

10 hours ago, XxSpearheadxX said:

I had hoped Ike Hilliard could have provided those things. 

 

A coach can certainly help, but I always think about when Champ Bailey arrived and was learning from Darrell Green.  Now, that's obviously a somewhat unique scenario, but I don't think there's any substitute for player-to-player mentorship. 

[Dissident2]

9 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

When i say you saw what you wanted to see the meaning is that you have already decided what you think of him and therefore are seeing what you want to see to validate that narrative. 

 

Which is laughable nonsense and something that I could easily turn around and say to you regarding how YOU see the guy. It's just "message board debating" mumbo jumbo that means nothing in the scheme of an argument, especially when I've said over and over that I want the guy to be great and want him to succeed and even WANT to be proven wrong about my current opinions. "Validate the narrative." Please. 

 

12 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

We are so used to seeing the diva WRs that one with a calm head is labeled as not caring enough. 

 

Again, you're not at all seeing the complexities of what I'm talking about here, which is typical of pretty much all these discussions. So now if I say he doesn't show enough passion on the field, that must mean I want him to be a Dez Bryant diva who gets in everyone's face. Or because I say he seems not to care enough, it must mean that I'm devaluing the fact that he's "quiet and cerebral." 

 

It has nothing to do with whether he's "quiet" or "calm". I actually like those traits, too. But like I said above when referencing Monk, you can have those traits and still show a lot of passion in your play. I'm simply not seeing enough of it from Doctson in his play. Doesn't mean he NEVER shows it. Just that, in my mind, he didn't show it enough this year. 

 

18 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

And I like that you provide color analyst opinions as validation or your point and then say the HCs opinion does't matter.

 

Yeah, that's what I said, alright. The HC's opinion "doesn't matter" and that the radio hosts' opinions do. No, I said using Gruden's comments at a presser to end the season isn't strong evidence to make your point. What's he supposed to say in that situation? No coach is going to go out there and criticize a player honestly in that scenario. His comments mean little IN THAT SITUATION because he was just giving a safe, political answer. Get me a comment from him in a coach's meeting where he expresses his true, unbiased opinion, and I'd give that a lot of weight. 

 

So, to sum up:

1. I want Doctson to be great

2. I hope he's great next year

3. He didn't show me nearly enough this year to make me feel confident that he will be

[justice98]

13 hours ago, goskins10 said:

 

The kid is a quite guy. Always has been. But just because he does not throw temper tantrums does not mean he has no passion for the game. All his teammates have said he is a very hard worker in practice watching lots of film and learning as much as her can. It's the end of his first real year. 

 

People are so impatient. If they are not a pro-bowl player in the first 4 games that player is a bust. WRs take at least a few years to make an impact. Learning all the route combinations and it all coming instinctive instead of having to think about it. His drops are a fair concern but again that is something he can fix. He has great hands and has made some amazing catches. Let's give the guy more than a minute to develop. 

 

Lesser WRs, not guys you spend a first round pick on expecting them to anchor your WR corps.

 

Who was the last really good WR taken in the first round that took a few years to make an impact?  And by "impact", I dont mean they had to catch 90 balls for 1200 yards and 10 TDs necessarily right outta the gate.  I mentioned Nelson Algolor earlier, but it's probably Roddy White coming out in 2005.  He took a couple years looking like a bust and then took off.  But it's not the norm for first round WRs.

 

For the really good ones with first round ability, you can get sonething in the neighborhood of 50 catches, 700 yards, 5-6 TDs as a rookie or 2nd year guy.  Doctson got the TDs, at least.  Catching 35 balls as a rookie starter is absolutely underwhelming.

[Mooka]

Gardner was a 50/50 type if the ball hit his hands.

 

Docston's more of a 50/50 type when the ball is in the air. 

 

As I've said before, NFL history says Josh Docston will never see a pro-bowl or hit 1000 yards. His comparisons are the Kevin Whites, the Breshaud Perrimans. By playing all season Docston is already near his ceiling of Robert Meachem level production. 

 

The real question is whether he can stay healthy while taking on more balls, making those tough catches, taking more hits, etc. 

[goskins10]

18 minutes ago, Dissident2 said:

 

Edit 

 

 

So, to sum up:

1. I want Doctson to be great

2. I hope he's great next year

3. He didn't show me nearly enough this year to make me feel confident that he will be

 

Not addressing the first part as quite frankly it's irrelevant and is taking the conversation in an unpleasant direction. However, I do appreciate the summation at the end. 

 

I think we all agree with points 1 and 2. For me, I somewhat agree with point 3.  And had you simply said that instead of questioning his heart and commitment the entire conversation would have gone different. If you remember I stated specifically that questioning his drops is fair. It's also fair to question why he still rounds off some routes - not running them as crisp which is what creates separation. I agree he could use a bit more bulk to battle some of the bigger DBs.

 

But none of that has to do with his heart, determination, or commitment to football. If you have not done so already, please look at how he got to TCU and how he ended being a 1st rd draft pic and you will see what this kid of really made of. 

 

He may just not have the skill set to be successful in the NFL. That's fair based on his performance to date - although I think it's a bit harsh and quick to make that judgement. I happen to believe we need more time to see. 

 

In then end we disagree. That's fine. I am sure we will both live through it. 

[Jumbo]

Per usual, I'm with the board: he's actually done fine, he sucks, it's still yet to be decided, and anyone can see it.

[NoCalMike]

Doctson's bust status will likely be tied to his draft position.  I look at a guy like Crabtree who had similar early career struggles with staying healthy and lack of production. He was written off as a bust relatively soon by 49ers fans, but once he was able to get healthy and stay on the field his production went up and he has developed into a solid #2 WR.  

 

The comparisons to Rod Gardner are fair, but a little off at the same time because when they drafted Gardner, he was pretty much the only viable WR on the team, despite the fact that it was clear his skill level lagged behind actual #1 WR's.  His stats were likely bore out of volume, sort of like Pryor in Cleveland.  Once Gardner left D.C. he was a ghost for a few seasons then was out of the NFL completely.

 

I think sometimes in the NFL the situation you are drafted into can have some effect on your career trajectory if you fall outside the "Superstar skill level" category.  If you are a #2-#4 caliber player, your value to any given team at any moment is going to fluctuate. 

 

I go back to guys like Gardner & Pryor.  Given what both guys did on one team, why were they totally useless for the next team? 

[goskins10]

32 minutes ago, justice98 said:

 

Lesser WRs, not guys you spend a first round pick on expecting them to anchor your WR corps.

 

Who was the last really good WR taken in the first round that took a few years to make an impact?  And by "impact", I dont mean they had to catch 90 balls for 1200 yards and 10 TDs necessarily right outta the gate.  I mentioned Nelson Algolor earlier, but it's probably Roddy White coming out in 2005.  He took a couple years looking like a bust and then took off.  But it's not the norm for first round WRs.

 

For the really good ones with first round ability, you can get sonething in the neighborhood of 50 catches, 700 yards, 5-6 TDs as a rookie or 2nd year guy.  Doctson got the TDs, at least.  Catching 35 balls as a rookie starter is absolutely underwhelming.

 

Out of how many targets? He can't catch balls not thrown at him. I would like to have seen them give him more chances earlier. But some of that he was still learning the route combinations. They are pretty complex in Jay's offense. Also, Kirk seemed hesitant to throw his way earlier. The drops did not help that. QBs remember that, and rightfully so. 

 

Next year is critical. I am very hopeful. The potential is there. I hope he realizes it. 

[Old Bay]

ESPN Stats for Doctson's 2 year career:  37 receptions, 85 targets, 568 yards, 6 TD.  Most of that coming this year (2 receptions in his first injury plagued year).  So far his percentage of receptions from targets is 43% which isn't great.  I'm not sure how many were legit drops at this time; couldn't find that stat quickly.

 

But come on y'all, writing him off after basically his first year is just brutal.  Some folks just make too many snap judgments.

[Dissident2]

23 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

I think we all agree with points 1 and 2. For me, I somewhat agree with point 3.  And had you simply said that instead of questioning his heart and commitment the entire conversation would have gone different.

 

Fair enough, but questioning someone's heart and commitment isn't the same as saying they definitively have none. I can only go by what I see/saw and my interpretation of those things. As for the rest, when someone expresses an opinion and you say they're only "seeing what they want to see," you shouldn't be surprised if that's taken as an insult. But yes, moving on. 

 

25 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

If you have not done so already, please look at how he got to TCU and how he ended being a 1st rd draft pic and you will see what this kid of really made of.

I admittedly don't know anything about that, so I will check this out. Maybe that will affect my perception somewhat. Like I said, I am totally open to having my mind changed on this kid. 

 

26 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

He may just not have the skill set to be successful in the NFL. That's fair based on his performance to date - although I think it's a bit harsh and quick to make that judgement. I happen to believe we need more time to see. 

 

 I haven't made that judgment yet. I've just said I have my doubts based on this season. Again, I hope he proves those doubts wrong. 

 

28 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

In then end we disagree. That's fine. I am sure we will both live through it. 

[goskins10]

 

3 minutes ago, Dissident2 said:

 

Edit

 

I admittedly don't know anything about that, so I will check this out. Maybe that will affect my perception somewhat. Like I said, I am totally open to having my mind changed on this kid. 

 

Edit

 

 

Here is an article about Josh talking about how he went from walk-on to pre-season all conference at TCU. http://ftw.usatoday.com/2015/08/how-tcus-josh-doctson-went-from-walk-on-to-preseason-all-conference

 

Here is an excerpt from his HC: 

“He’s very serious about football,” Patterson said. “He’s smart player, on and off the field. He has an unbelievable drive to be great. So the things that you don’t always see, you found out when he came back and walked on and you’re like, I’m sure glad he came back.”

 

[Mooka]

39 minutes ago, NoCalMike said:

I go back to guys like Gardner & Pryor.  Given what both guys did on one team, why were they totally useless for the next team? 

Man, we traded a 3rd and 4th for Brandon Lloyd once. 

 

You know the saying though..... lies, damn lies and statistics. 

 

Catching passes and scoring TDs is one thing, winning football games is another. 

 

[NickyJ]

Whenever I see someone use Cooley's commentary for a serious discussion about a player, four words come to mind: 'Homesickness of the knees'. Cooley is many things, but an infallible judge of character and psychology? I think not.

[shakinaiken]

18 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

He's not even Rod Gardner at this point. At least Gardner had a 1000 yard season.

 

He's more 30/70 than 50/50, but with that said the talent is there. Hopefully he breaks out in year 3 similar to Jordan Reed.

 

With Jordan Reed, the talent was immediately noticeable. Just an absolute mismatch for defenders. I don't see that raw talent flash in Doctson. He's not superior athletically like reed is ( when healthy of course).

[bobandweave]

Two names for you:

 

Devin Funchess

Nelson Agholor

 

Both written off way too early as well who just had break out seasons

[Dissident2]

Going back to look at stats, we've amazingly only drafted five receivers in the first round in our history. I'm not counting Charley Taylor, because he was drafted as a running back. 

 

Here's how their stats play out respectively in their rookie seasons. I'm considering 2017 to be Doctson's rookie season. 

 

Art Monk

1980

Games played: 16

Games started: 11

(targets weren't a stat back then), 58 receptions, 797 yards, 3 TDs, 3.6 receptions per game

 

Desmond Howard

(Howard was drafted in '92, but I'm going to go with his '93 numbers, as he was basically just used as a return specialist in '92.)

1993

Games played: 16

Games started: 5

52 targets, 23 receptions, 286 yards, 0 TDs, 1.4 rpg

 

Westbrook

1995

Games played: 11

Games started: 9

88 targets, 34 receptions, 522 yards, 1 TD, 3.1 rpg

 

Rod Gardner

2001

Games played: 16

Games started: 16

101 targets, 46 receptions, 741 yards, 4 TDs, 2.9 rpg

 

Josh Doctson

2017

Games played: 16

Games started: 14

78 targets, 35 receptions, 502 yards, 6 TDs, 2.2 rpg

 

Compare all these numbers, and Doctson generally looks comparable to most, better than some. The only problem is that only one of these receivers, Monk, turned out to be worthy of that first pick. The next closest would be Westbrook, who at least played with us for 7 years, but only had one season with more than 1,000 yards receiving, 1999 with Brad Johnson. Westbrook had 9 TDs that year. Gardner also put up only one 1,000 yard season, and he was only with us four years. Was out of the league after 2006. As for Howard, he improved a lot in his third season, but was traded right after. So he was only with us for three years, only two of which as a starting WR.

 

The 6 TDs from Doctson is clearly the most impressive number in his stats so far when you compare him to our other first round WR picks. Amazing how poor we've been overall though when selecting a WR in the first round. Hopefully Josh will follow the Monk trajectory starting next season. 

 

Just for fun, even though Taylor was drafted and played as a running back for us initially, in that first season here he had 53 receptions, 814 yards, 5 TDs and 3.8 rpg. That was in a 14-game season. So he was killin' it. 

 

[clskinsfan]

5 hours ago, Dissident2 said:

 

So feel free to say why my current opinion on him might be wrong (a quote from Gruden in a season-ending presser isn't really strong evidence, imo), but don't suggest that I "want" to see the guy fail or have somehow blinded myself to all of Doctson's "greatness" this season. Far from it. I'm just going by what my eyes and gut tell me, and I wish they both told me something different.

Yeah. That segment from Cooley and Kevin yesterday was pretty damning stuff to be sure. Football outsiders has him with a 45% catch rate and rated 65th overall for WR's in the league. That isnt really what you want to be seeing from the number 22 pick in the draft. 

 

He needs to improve the drops. And if he wants Kirk, or whoever our Qb is, to throw him more 50/50 balls he needs to come down with more of them. He made a couple of huge plays for us this year (Seattle). But he also had a couple of huge drops (KC).

[Unbias]

3 hours ago, NoCalMike said:

Doctson's bust status will likely be tied to his draft position.  I look at a guy like Crabtree who had similar early career struggles with staying healthy and lack of production. He was written off as a bust relatively soon by 49ers fans, but once he was able to get healthy and stay on the field his production went up and he has developed into a solid #2 WR.  

 

The comparisons to Rod Gardner are fair, but a little off at the same time because when they drafted Gardner, he was pretty much the only viable WR on the team, despite the fact that it was clear his skill level lagged behind actual #1 WR's.  His stats were likely bore out of volume, sort of like Pryor in Cleveland.  Once Gardner left D.C. he was a ghost for a few seasons then was out of the NFL completely.

 

I think sometimes in the NFL the situation you are drafted into can have some effect on your career trajectory if you fall outside the "Superstar skill level" category.  If you are a #2-#4 caliber player, your value to any given team at any moment is going to fluctuate. 

 

I go back to guys like Gardner & Pryor.  Given what both guys did on one team, why were they totally useless for the next team? 

 

Funny enough Rod Gardner's big year was in 2002 and the Skins were 7-9. 

 

There were 546 targeted passes of which 141 went his way,

 

To compare to this team they attempted 534 passes and 78 went Doctson's way. 

 

I think the 2002 team had worse weapons, but this season had Pryor be a flop, a hurt Reed barely be able to play, Crowder also be banged up and Thompson miss a 1/3 of the season. We saw him get more targets in the back 1/2 of the year, but his production was still only 'meh'. In the last two games when the playoff hopes were done he saw 23 targets. With those looks he had 6 catches for 98 yards and a TD. 

[AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy]

1 hour ago, bobandweave said:

Devin Funchess

Nelson Agholor

 

Both written off way too early as well who just had break out seasons

I think you can toss Devonte Adams in that group as well.  

 

But unfortunately after one season on the field, it is obvious that Doctson has several physical and mental disabilities that will keep him from ever being good at football.  I just hope he can go on to live a normal life.  

[NickyJ]

1 hour ago, AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy said:

I think you can toss Devonte Adams in that group as well.  

 

But unfortunately after one season on the field, it is obvious that Doctson has several physical and mental disabilities that will keep him from ever being good at football.  I just hope he can go on to live a normal life.  

We should probably trade Josh to Dallas before he injures his knees again in a fit of homesickness. We're a generous team, we can afford it.

[Thinking Skins]

 

[Commander -JB-]

Doctson stunk this season.  Aside from the miraculous catch against seattle of course