2018 Comprehensive NFL Draft Thread

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

4 hours ago, Dexter said:

I think Fitzpatrick is overrated.  All of his snaps the last 2 years have been taken as a nickle defender.  I don't see ball skills, elite footwork and if he can't play on an island in college how is he going to do it in the NFL.  

 

Tremaine Edmunds and Derwin James are the most dynamic players in this draft; they are going to be studs.  If we can't draft one of those guys then we should trade out of the pick.  I would be tempted to draft Vita Vea though.  To me he's about the next safest bet in regards to our needs.  

 

Dude, seriously?  That's not remotely true.  Fitzpatrick lines up damn near everywhere.  You can find a post a few pages ago where I listed how he was lined up and what he did on the first dozen-ish plays of a game.

 

Here's FootballOutsiders take on him.  He is the most versatile player in the draft.

 

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

5 hours ago, bowhunter said:

Anyone remember who was our consensus#1 pick last year, before Allen fell on our lap?

Rueben Foster? Malik Hooker?  Some predicted Christian McAffrey. Two of those Three aren't shiny offensive toys, but solid D building blocks. This will be Allens 2nd draft (or 1st depending on your opinion of Scotty McGems leaving his board in DC.) It will be interesting to see how they do. 

 

 

I don't think we had a consensus.  I believe my own big board did not have Foster or Hooker on it in the first.  Foster personality issues (he got kicked out of the combine for being an asshole) and Hooker (injury issues).  It did have McAffrey high somewhere.

 

I was pretty high on Jon Allen, Jamal Adams, Marlon Humphrey, Solomon Thomas, OJ Howard, Garrett Bolles, Jarrad Davis, Budda Baker, Tyus Bowser, Chidobe Awuzie, and Dalvin Tomlinson.

 

Wasn't high on Reddick, Foster, Hooker, Peppers (back when we had Su'a), Adoree Jackson, Taco Charlton, and Derek Barnett.

[The Consigliere]

On 3/3/2018 at 4:13 AM, fordranger76 said:

Anyone else hate the combine effect or just me? It makes some people forget about tape and fall in love with a player just because they are fast or they didnt do as well as they should. I guess that is why people get fired every year in the NFL due to that same logic. 

Depends on the positions and depends on the drills. It's incredibly helpful w/running backs for instance. Additionally simply taking the top speed scores at TE the past several years would land you the very best TE's in draft after draft. 

 

In terms of RB the key elements are Speed Score, Agillity Score, and Burst score. Score well on those and you can generally find out exactly who will succeed in the NFL. It isn't perfect, but the vast majority of misses fail in those elements and the vast majority of hits do quite well in them.

 

WR is interesting, basically the combine is irrelevant unless they're a total slug. The tools most correlated with success involve breakout age, market share, and the arc of their production during their career (with draft year production being particularly important). 

[skinny21]

@The ConsigliereI can’t recall, did you post a list of promising receivers based off those credentials?  I do recall you saying it was a down draft for receiver considering those factors.  

[The Consigliere]

analytics community, probably Matt Kelley and Anthony amigo had DJ Moore as their #1 overall WR back in January, so props to them. This is the kind of WR draft where you either pass on the position entirely, or you throw a dart on day 3, and put your chips in for the loaded 2019 class. The quality just isn't there, and it works anyway for what we have, gotta give Doctson at least one more full season, though with Alex Smith it will probably stink. I'd rather evaluate at the position and save our money either for FA talent, or '19 prospects.

 

The RB position definitely just got cleared up.

 

Royce Freeman has always been a favorite of mine but I was totally blown away by his combine. I was expecting a slightly better version of Perine's sluggish performance and instead he was excellent. It's a huge deal, and for me that puts Freeman inside my top five, probably at 4 for now. For me you go Barkley, or you trade down and look at Guice, Chubb, Freeman and Penny. Some like Michel, I expected a better combine, and found Guice, Chubb and Freeman much more impressive when you add in their production in college. Be aware w/Penny that his pass blocking is apparently horrific, like worst ever seen kind of horrific. I'd love to get Guice, Chubb or Freeman and see Freeman as the best value in the draft, probably, certainly pre-combine anyway. 

 

But yeah, in terms of WR it's ugly. Basically you've got Moore, Sutton, and St. Brown who seem like probably the only guys who have the physical tools to truly be great, then a bunch of slot guys and at best #2 options or worse, and all carry a ton of bust risk. It's just not a good class at all. I'd just bare in mind with St. Brown that he had the worst QB in college football last year, and the year before with Kizer, who makes many gag, he was viewed as the #2 WR prospect coming into this fall. He is still the same player, he just lost the year to horrible quarterback play and without the sample size material we want, we don't have a clear picture on what his future looks like. If he'd had a slightly worse combine I'd be more intrigued because he probably would have gone late day 2 or day 3, now he's going day 2, and that's pretty rich for a guy who had a season that was so bad it would render most prospects undraftable. But in fairness, he got zero help from his QB. Literally zero. 

[Skinsinparadise]

I think we can say with confidence they like Vea, we got multiple beat reporters saying it.  Cooley echoing Vea (before he was a Payne guy) after returning from the combine.  Then the guy who supposedly sat next to Tomsula said Tomsua gushed about Vea.

 

http://www.espn.com/blog/washington-redskins/post/_/id/35842/quarterback-not-high-on-washington-redskins-draft-list

Keim: You're definitely on the right track. My quesiton with signing defensive linemen in free agency is basic: What's the cost? The Redskins only have $32 million or so to spend this offseason. A guy like Poe or Bennie Logan or Sheldon Richardson would be good and would solve problems against the run no doubt. But they really do like Vita Vea, from what I've been told by multiple people. There's a decent chance he'll be there when the Redskins pick 13th. But if you don't sign a guy in free agency, you'd best feel good about a couple of defensive linemen with that pick because you really don't know who will be around.

But if they sign a defensive linemen, it could mean they won't invest as heavily at inside linebacker. But, again, you can't rely on getting a guy at 13. You'd better have several you like at various points in the draft. I do think running back is strongly in play at 44; they might need to trade up to get a guy they want. And corner would be an option, too. There are some they like who would be around at 13 (I think). But they might solve a hole there via free agency.

 

 

[Silvernon]

Vita Vea makes sense - it's probably all guess work at this point from the media. Still think he'll go in any of the slots 7-12. Might be harder to argue a couple of those teams versus the others, but it's certainly plausible. 

 

Part of me hopes the elite talent falls to see us take them, and the other hopes we trade down, big or small.

[Est.1974]

Buffalo well set to move up with that extra pick at the top of the third. The value for them to jump to #13 or thereabouts for one of their first and seconds is right on, still leaving them with #65.

[wilco_holland]

I really want to like Vea but it feels so like Danny Shelton. I loved him out of college. Thought he combined big body with pass rush ability but it doesn't really come out in the NFL. 

 

Now he is traded to the Pats.

 

It's just hard. Either Vea is an unique player. One of the rare huge tackles who can collapse the pocket and be stout against the run. Or he is just going to be "an other" very good NT that comes of the field on 3th down. 

[Panninho]

44 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

Buffalo well set to move up with that extra pick at the top of the third. The value for them to jump to #13 or thereabouts for one of their first and seconds is right on, still leaving them with #65.

Now that they have to get a quarterback, I am pretty sure they'll aim higher than 13.

[mistertim]

37 minutes ago, wilco_holland said:

I really want to like Vea but it feels so like Danny Shelton. I loved him out of college. Thought he combined big body with pass rush ability but it doesn't really come out in the NFL. 

 

Now he is traded to the Pats.

 

It's just hard. Either Vea is an unique player. One of the rare huge tackles who can collapse the pocket and be stout against the run. Or he is just going to be "an other" very good NT that comes of the field on 3th down. 

 

Completely agree. I think in the NFL Vea will be very much like Danny Shelton ended up being: a good lane clogger but not much else. They both flashed some sack numbers in college but when you watch both of them in their college tape, almost all of that was purely using their size to bull past mediocre OL talent (and Vea had a good amount of coverage sacks). There really isn't much technique there at all which isn't going to get it done in the NFL. The G/Cs they go up against will all be bigger, faster, and much more technically sound than in college.

 

I'm not really down for spending a #13 overall on a guy to clog running lanes in certain fronts; you can find that in later rounds or in FA without breaking the bank. First of all, that isn't even the flavor of 3-4 we run for the most part. The enormous lane clogging NT being a staple and the primary part of your defense comes from the older school 2 gap 3-4 where the DL were huge and slower and there purely to take on multiple blockers so the LBs could flow downhill, hit the gaps, and make the plays. Sure, we run some of that but it is more situational with us...overall we run a more 3-4 under 1 gap scheme where you have quicker, more agile DL who are meant to handle and/or penetrate their gap and get into the backfield to make plays.

 

Unless we plan on completely changing our scheme (which would be stupid since we already have some nice pieces in place for the more aggressive 1 gap system) then Vea would likely be mostly a situational guy. You don't draft a situational guy at #13 overall. Obvious caveat to that is if Vea does manage to quickly learn technique and become a very effective pass rusher as well...but the history of drafting big fatties high doesn't bode well there.

[lavar1156]

Don't want Vea. Want someone who will get us off the field on 3rd down.

[Dark Acre]

Why would Vea necessarily come out on 3rd?  Like no one is ever in 3rd and short against us?  

[mistertim]

 

16 minutes ago, GothSkinsFan said:

Why would Vea necessarily come out on 3rd?  Like no one is ever in 3rd and short against us?  

 

I'm guessing he meant obvious passing downs, and he was just using 3rd as a catch-all for that.

 

On another note, I noticed something Vea does quite often that drives me up the wall a bit, after watching his game tape again last night. I saw many times when he takes on a blocker, whether on a running or passing play, he does this thing where instead of staying square and keeping his hands up and on his guy, he'll lower his lead arm, dip that shoulder, and basically try to battering ram his way through with his shoulder. It not only takes his whole attention from the play as he pretty much turns sideways, but it also can easily run him out of plays because he's giving up real leverage for some sort of battering ram power move that turns him to the side.

 

Even in college there were plenty of times he got run out of the play because of that. Sure, there were times when it worked pretty well against mediocre OL talent, but in the pros he's going to get run out of the play, or immediately spun around and pancaked if he tries that stuff. Either way, its awful technique. Zero doubt the he's an incredibly gifted athlete but watching his tape and his technique there really only seems to be one thing he's absolutely outstanding at and that is being enormous.

 

His burst is mediocre and inconsistent; he'll flash a nice burst off the line every so often but more often than not he comes up out of his stance and basically seems to lumber towards the blockers across from him. No real pass rush moves that I saw outside of two or three snaps over multiple games. Also gets taken off of his feet/pancaked WAY too often for a guy his size. He should shouldn't be any easier to do that to than a boulder but there it is, many times in tape. Not sure if it is a balance issue, leverage, or technique, but it's a bit troublesome.

 

I could be 100% wrong. I'm far from a professional scout so someone, including us, may pick him and buck the odds and get a huge guy who can clog lanes as well as rush the passer consistently but I just don't see it from my (very limited, compared to pro scouts) view.

 

 

 

 

[Warhead36]

I don't mind a big time run stopper at pick #13. Look at our division. The Eagles have Ajayi. The Cowboys have Zeke. The Giants might get Barkley. We need someone to counter that. We stop the run against those teams, we'll win games.

[fordranger76]

If we draft Vea this fanbase is going to explode at the pick in cheers. Then come September when we are getting gashed over and over because he is sucking wind on those 3rd down no huddles everyone will crucify the front office. It will happen. It happened to him in college. Go watch the tape fellas. Harrison Phillips is the guy we want. Trust me on this.

[klwilkins1977]

Vea is the sexy pick.   Extremely big guy who can move.   Carries his weight well.   The pulled hammy on the 40 at the combine puts caution signs all over him.   The speed and agility that he'll be seeing every down in the NFL is going to stress him more than trying to chase the clock.   If he lost 20lbs though... 

 

Payne is sick.   Dude is yoked and moves like a ballerina.   Great hips.   Great fluidity when changing directions.   Did I mention that he's yoked?   He's also mean af and a hard worker.   Unlike Vea,  I have no worries that his weight would balloon. 

 

Harrison Phillips is a hoss.   A little stiff in the hips but this guy is strong like bull. More athletic than most,  but I see this guy being an every down tackle who pushes the line of scrimmage into the QBs lap.   His strength will demand double teams,  which translates into more opportunities for the MLB to remain clean,  the need for the offense to leave the RB in the backfield to contain our ends or a free blitzer,  and shorter zones for the secondary to cover.   Deep passes diminish against us. 

 

So,  my picks go Payne, Phillips,  then Vea.   One of them will be there at 13.  No trade backs!!  We have to have one of these guys. 

 

Let Wilkerson sign with the Raiders.   We don't need attitudes and dudes taking 3rd and long off... 

[Dexter]

25 minutes ago, fordranger76 said:

If we draft Vea this fanbase is going to explode at the pick in cheers. Then come September when we are getting gashed over and over because he is sucking wind on those 3rd down no huddles everyone will crucify the front office. It will happen. It happened to him in college. Go watch the tape fellas. Harrison Phillips is the guy we want. Trust me on this.

Tim Settle is the guy....his combine numbers were pedestrian but hopefully we can nab him in the 2nd round.  He's a flat out stud and never stays blocked.  I watched the tape on Phillips and I just don't see it.  I see a slow footed lineman with good hands.  I think he's coached up very well but offers very little in the pass game.

 

Settle is legit and he's going to be a stud.  

[Conn]

If we have to blow our wad in FA on one high-end player (and with our young defense I'd rather do that than stick to our failing recent strategy of 3-4 McClain/McGee types who could easily be JAGs on rookie contracts) I hope its Allen Robinson. 

 

This rookie WR class just screams 2008 to me. There may be one or two impact guys to come out of it between rounds 1-3 but it probably won't be the ones you'd think and I'd hate rolling those dice. 

 

I could also see this happening because the FA has to, essentially, justify the Alex Smith trade and make him successful. Our current WR corps is not the way to do that. 

 

Right now I'd like to see DL or DB (never would have said that before the Fuller deal, and it hurts to type) in the 1st and a top RB in the 2nd, if things fell well for us. 

 

I'd much rather still have Fuller and be talking about what QBs may fall within our range at 13. It's going to really hurt on draft weekend when the 3rd round starts and we're stuck holding our dicks. 

[RWJ]

5 hours ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

If we have to blow our wad in FA on one high-end player (and with our young defense I'd rather do that than stick to our failing recent strategy of 3-4 McClain/McGee types who could easily be JAGs on rookie contracts) I hope its Allen Robinson. 

 

This rookie WR class just screams 2008 to me. There may be one or two impact guys to come out of it between rounds 1-3 but it probably won't be the ones you'd think and I'd hate rolling those dice. 

 

I could also see this happening because the FA has to, essentially, justify the Alex Smith trade and make him successful. Our current WR corps is not the way to do that. 

 

Right now I'd like to see DL or DB (never would have said that before the Fuller deal, and it hurts to type) in the 1st and a top RB in the 2nd, if things fell well for us. 

 

I'd much rather still have Fuller and be talking about what QBs may fall within our range at 13. It's going to really hurt on draft weekend when the 3rd round starts and we're stuck holding our dicks. 

We got to HOPE that one of the so called blue chip QBs are still on the board and a team like the Bills are willing to trade up with us so we can acquire extra draft picks.  

[wilco_holland]

19 minutes ago, RWJ said:

We got to HOPE that one of the so called blue chip QBs are still on the board and a team like the Bills are willing to trade up with us so we can acquire extra draft picks.  

 

My question is. If you love one of the QBs. He is still there after pick 6. Are you really going to wait until he drops to 13? I think it's more reasonable to think that Bills then will trade up more early in the draft, not wait until 13. 

[HigSkin]

Great, I kind of like this kid if he was still around in the 4th but....

 

http://www.espn.com/blog/washington-redskins/post/_/id/35842/quarterback-not-high-on-washington-redskins-draft-list

 

By the way, the quarterback from Richmond, Kyle Lauletta, shares the same agent as Kirk Cousins, for those who like to know those sort of things. I think a lot of teams will like Lauletta in the fourth-round range.

[RWJ]

21 minutes ago, HigSkin said:

Great, I kind of like this kid if he was still around in the 4th but....

 

http://www.espn.com/blog/washington-redskins/post/_/id/35842/quarterback-not-high-on-washington-redskins-draft-list

 

By the way, the quarterback from Richmond, Kyle Lauletta, shares the same agent as Kirk Cousins, for those who like to know those sort of things. I think a lot of teams will like Lauletta in the fourth-round range.

He's on my draft wish list as the QB we draft and still hope he's there in the 4th to take over for Smith in the next 2 years or so.  He can sit and learn behind Smith.  Some mocks have him going as early as the late 2nd to as late in the draft as the 5th round.

[fordranger76]

13 hours ago, Dexter said:

Tim Settle is the guy....his combine numbers were pedestrian but hopefully we can nab him in the 2nd round.  He's a flat out stud and never stays blocked.  I watched the tape on Phillips and I just don't see it.  I see a slow footed lineman with good hands.  I think he's coached up very well but offers very little in the pass game.

 

Settle is legit and he's going to be a stud.  

So I like Settle. I do. I would not hate having him. But comparing him to Phillips is not a fair fight. Phillips is not the fastest of the lineman but interior pressure and good hands is a wonderful thing to have. Technique is the name of the game there. You are not getting home being a fast inside d-lineman anyways. That applies to the edge way more than the interior. Take a look at some advanced metrics between the two and go back and watch more tape on Phillips. You might start to see why so many are high on him. Also to say that he offers little in the passing game. Well I am just not understanding that. I believe he had the most sacks out of all the big NT's so if anything all of the others are playing catch up to his pass rushing.

 

3-4 NT	Solo Tackles	Sacks	TFL	Backfield	School	SOS		Bench Press	10 Yrd Split	Arm	Big Board
	4.6 AVG	10.65 AVG	8.5 AVG	9.57 AVG				29.5 AVG	1.77 AVG	32.79 AVG
Harrison Phillips	6.8	23.8	23.4	23.6	Stanford	28		42	1.79	33.87	1

 

Tim Settle

4.8

12.5

12.3

12.4

Virginia Tech

55

DNP

1.9

33

5

 

Even in the 10 yard split which is more important than the 40 for a fat boy Phillips beats Settle. I assume there is a good chance he is stronger as evident by putting up the most reps at the bench. He beats him in every important market share score along with his strength of schedule. As I said I do like Settle and I am not hating on you for your opinion but these are some of the things which make Phillips the superior prospect head to head.

[Dexter]

44 minutes ago, fordranger76 said:

So I like Settle. I do. I would not hate having him. But comparing him to Phillips is not a fair fight. Phillips is not the fastest of the lineman but interior pressure and good hands is a wonderful thing to have. Technique is the name of the game there. You are not getting home being a fast inside d-lineman anyways. That applies to the edge way more than the interior. Take a look at some advanced metrics between the two and go back and watch more tape on Phillips. You might start to see why so many are high on him. Also to say that he offers little in the passing game. Well I am just not understanding that. I believe he had the most sacks out of all the big NT's so if anything all of the others are playing catch up to his pass rushing.

 

3-4 NT	Solo Tackles	Sacks	TFL	Backfield	School	SOS		Bench Press	10 Yrd Split	Arm	Big Board
	4.6 AVG	10.65 AVG	8.5 AVG	9.57 AVG				29.5 AVG	1.77 AVG	32.79 AVG
Harrison Phillips	6.8	23.8	23.4	23.6	Stanford	28		42	1.79	33.87	1

 

Tim Settle

4.8

12.5

12.3

12.4

Virginia Tech

55

DNP

1.9

33

5

 

Even in the 10 yard split which is more important than the 40 for a fat boy Phillips beats Settle. I assume there is a good chance he is stronger as evident by putting up the most reps at the bench. He beats him in every important market share score along with his strength of schedule. As I said I do like Settle and I am not hating on you for your opinion but these are some of the things which make Phillips the superior prospect head to head.

I watched his USC tape and he looked really good.  I still think he is coached up very well and he's maxed out.  I don't see a lot of upside.  He is Matt Ioannidis 2.0; which is not a bad thing b/c I think Ioannids is really good. He's not as athletic as Ioannidis coming out.  He's a very safe player but a guy who we already have on the roster. 

 

Settle is only 20 years old, pass rush efficiency he was ranked 10th in CFB and he's one of the biggest bodies in the draft.  His blend of size, skill and quickness are rare.  I like Phillips I just think Settle has more upside and skill; he's not the technician that Phillips is nor has he developed his strength yet.  Both are good prospects though.