2018 Comprehensive NFL Draft Thread

[Momma There Goes That Man]

I’m still stunned at Edmunds being a top 15 prospect. I watched every Vt game and I never saw it. He was very good but he never jumped off the page to me which is what I usually see in a top 15 type of player. 

 

But then again: 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

It would be deja vu if our RB sells the FO on a safety from their alma matter

 

 

[Going Commando]

1 - Barkley

2 - Mayfield

3 - Darnold

4 - Nelson

5 - Rosen

6 - Jackson

7 - Fitzpatrick

8 - Chubb

9 - James

10 - Smith

11 - Allen

12 - Ward

13 - Hurst

14 - Ridley

15 - Landry

16 - Payne

 

I'm not usually in favor of trading down, but this might be the year to do it.  I was hoping we'd be able to either use the fifth QB to move down from 13, or take him ourselves if it's Jackson or Mayfield.  But if Buffalo stays at 12, I think they get the last one.

 

Hurst's heart condition has me worried.  If he's healthy, I'd take him at 13, but if not, then I guess I'd take him off my board.

 

Unless a no-brainer blue chipper like Smith, James, Nelson, or Fitzpatrick are there at 13, I'd rather move down, get at least one more day two pick, and let the draft come to us.

Not sold on any of the offensive linemen other than Nelson being value at 13.  All of the tackles are sketchy this year.

[Going Commando]

19 hours ago, LetMeSeeYourWarFace21 said:

Random thoughts 3:30am ..........Sony Michel highlight videos>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Guice's videos.....

 

Guice was a different player in 2017.  He was slow.  If you think he can get back to his speed from 2016, then he's better than Michel.  He's got elite feet and he's built strong and low.  He looked fast again in the combine drills, so maybe he's back.

 

Michel would be great value in the second round.  But Guice is the second best RB in the class by a large margin if healthy.  He's a unique player and his 2016 Texas A&M and Arkansas film are absolutely ridiculous. That's extreme value if you can get him in the second.

He reminds me a little of Maurice Jones Drew.

[Cypress]

I don't like the idea of trading down. We need play-makers, we need impact players and with the amount of QB's likely to go early there will be one waiting for us at #13.

 

I love James but think he will be gone by then. For me Fitzpatrick, Smith, Vea or maybe even Josh Jackson.

[Going Commando]

I'm going against the grain a little bit but I don't like Vea.  I think he's more athlete than player.  He's a body.  His motor is good but his play recognition and hand technique are weak and he has way too many snaps where he has no impact.  I'm also disappointed that his first step is so ordinary given how good of a straight line runner he is.  I just don't think he has the instincts for the game to be a great NFL player, because instincts and technique are such a massive part of winning the battle as a 0, 1, and 3 technique.

 

I think he's being overrated because this interior DL class is so small and he's one of the only guys who isn't.  But I would rather take an undersized guy who can play like Payne or maybe even Hurst at 13, or pass on DL and get someone much later in the draft like Nnadi.

 

This is a weak interior DL class.  Very undersized, and Hurst is probably the only guy in the class who is an everydown guy, and he's a middling prospect by the standards of the top guys in previous DL classes.  Plus he's undersized and has a heart condition.  Payne is acceptable value at 13 even though I don't think he'd be BPA.  Other than him, I don't think we're going to get value from any of these DLs in the first three rounds. 

 

In fact, I see this as a weak DL class in general.  This is a banner QB, RB, and OG year.  And to a slightly lesser extent, LB and DB.  Those are the positions most likely to be BPA throughout the first half of the draft.

I do like Fitzpatrick, Smith, and Jackson at 13 though.  Throw Ward in there too if he's still on the board.  One of them will probably be the BPA.

[Skinsinparadise]

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John Keim‏Verified account @john_keim 1m1 minute ago

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John Keim Retweeted Grant Paulsen

Fear was having to spend too much on a position that has excellent depth in the draft. But... worry with the draft will be when is there a run on RBs? Skins pick 13 & 44. might be out of the sweet spot? but if no FAs, must have confidence in what will happen.

John Keim added,

Grant PaulsenVerified account @granthpaulsen

The #Redskins lack of interest in the first wave of free agent RB's makes me think they will be spending an early pick on RB. We've heard Doug Williams and Jay Gruden both say they want to upgrade the position.

0 replies1 retweet2 likes

 

[Peregrine]

3 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

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John Keim‏Verified account @john_keim 1m1 minute ago

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John Keim Retweeted Grant Paulsen

Fear was having to spend too much on a position that has excellent depth in the draft. But... worry with the draft will be when is there a run on RBs? Skins pick 13 & 44. might be out of the sweet spot? but if no FAs, must have confidence in what will happen.

John Keim added,

Grant PaulsenVerified account @granthpaulsen

The #Redskins lack of interest in the first wave of free agent RB's makes me think they will be spending an early pick on RB. We've heard Doug Williams and Jay Gruden both say they want to upgrade the position.

0 replies1 retweet2 likes

 

Im just really not a big fan of that.  If a RB is available at #13, odds are hes going to bust, while there are many many many great running backs that come out of the 3rd and 4th rounds.  Basically top cant miss RBs go in the top 5, and later first rounders rarely end up doing anything.

[Going Commando]

I think we could stay put and get Michel in the second.  Or move back in the first/up in the second and get Guice.

[Skinsinparadise]

11 minutes ago, Peregrine said:

Im just really not a big fan of that.  If a RB is available at #13, odds are hes going to bust, while there are many many many great running backs that come out of the 3rd and 4th rounds.  Basically top cant miss RBs go in the top 5, and later first rounders rarely end up doing anything.

 

Agree with part of your point but not the other part that suggests going post 2nd rd.   I don't want to draft a RB at #13.  If a big player falls that they love, name the guy we've talked about here, Fitzpatrick, Vea, D. James, etc.  Take the guy.  If not, I'd trade down and consider a RB later in that round where at least the draft geeks think the run will start on guys post Barkley.  Or i am willing to be patient to see who is left in the 2nd round

 

They don't have a 3rd rounder.  So we are talking two different tiers.  2nd round versus 4th round.

 

Tier of:  S. Michel, R. Jones, D. Guice, R. Penny,   Maybe K. Johnson, Chubb,  (whomever is left from that group)

 

Vs.

 

Tier of:  Freeman, Kelly, Walton, Wadley, Hines, Ballage, etc.

 

I might feel differently if they had their 3rd rounder because you never know there could be an unexpected drop.  But if we are banking on the 4th round, there is a good chance we are deep into the third tier of RBs.  To me that would be deja vu and deja vu in a bad way.  I guess if the team showed they were really good, Shanny style, at finding those 4th rd and lower rd Rbs, I'd go on that ride.  But aside from the Shanny years -- its not been a fun ride ignoring the upper rounds for RB. 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Two of these signings in free agency preclude teams who may have gone RB in Rounds 1 and 2 from doing so. Not to say they will avoid it altogether, but I think it does limit what they do in the first 2 rounds: San Francisco and Cleveland

 

Still leaves Indianapolis, Oakland, Denver, NYG, TB in need of RBs ahead of us in the 2nd. Barkley presumably goes to one of them in Round 1. There will be a run in Round 2 as well, but I think worst-case scenario is we wait til pick 44 and have Jones, Barkley, Guice and Michel off the board. Would leave us Kerryonn Johnson, Nick Chubb, Rashad Penny, etc. for 44 if we wanted to go there.

I don't know who we would find to dance with, but trading from 13 to the 20s and adding a 3rd would be nice. That would allow us to go Guard-RB in the first 2 rounds and then defense the rest of the way. And this is based off the assumption that we get a DRC and a premier DL in free agency.

[Going Commando]

25 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

But aside from the Shanny years -- its not been a fun ride ignoring the upper rounds for RB. 

 

Agreed.  The result is we've had slow runningbacks or guys with no wiggle.  One of the reasons I'm open to a trade down is because it'd put us in that sweet spot of 20-40 where Guice/Jones/Michel/Chubb will probably come off the board.  Getting a guy like Jones or Guice would go a long way to improve our plodding team speed on offense, especially now that we have Paul Richardson too.

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Agreed.  The result is we've had slow runningbacks or guys with no wiggle.  One of the reasons I'm open to a trade down is because it'd put us in that sweet spot of 20-40 where Guice/Jones/Michel/Chubb will probably come off the board.  Getting a guy like Jones or Guice would go a long way to improve our plodding team speed on offense, especially now that we have Paul Richardson too.

 

Exactly what I am thinking.  I guess there is a shot that Sony Michel is there in the 2nd because of this 4.5 and change 40 time at the combine but I still think he's likely gone before our pick in the 2nd.  Ditto every player you mention.  Maybe Penny and K. Johnson is still there.

[Skinsinparadise]

Mark Bullock‏ @MarkBullockNFL 7s8 seconds ago

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Mark Bullock Retweeted Draft Analyst

#Redskins QB coach Kevin O’Connell one of those in attendance at Kyle Lauletta’s pro day yesterday

Mark Bullock added,

 

[JSSkinz]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

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John Keim Retweeted Grant Paulsen

Fear was having to spend too much on a position that has excellent depth in the draft. But... worry with the draft will be when is there a run on RBs? Skins pick 13 & 44. might be out of the sweet spot? but if no FAs, must have confidence in what will happen.

John Keim added,

Grant PaulsenVerified account @granthpaulsen

The #Redskins lack of interest in the first wave of free agent RB's makes me think they will be spending an early pick on RB. We've heard Doug Williams and Jay Gruden both say they want to upgrade the position.

0 replies1 retweet2 likes

 

 

After I heard Doug's presser at the combine and the way he gushed about the rookie RB class I didn't expect us to sign a FA RB unless it was one of those sweetheart deals.

[The Consigliere]

54 minutes ago, Peregrine said:

Im just really not a big fan of that.  If a RB is available at #13, odds are hes going to bust, while there are many many many great running backs that come out of the 3rd and 4th rounds.  Basically top cant miss RBs go in the top 5, and later first rounders rarely end up doing anything.

 

Interesting argument. I don't think there's correlation or causation there though. Historically speaking, the 2009-2014 RB classes were horrific, after a bounce back in '15, the '16 class was also predicted to be awful and it has been, now we have two more quality ones in '17 and '18 followed by another bad one next year in '19.

 

In terms of the players themselves that fit your tag:

 

2017:

Cook and Mixon are both legit in my view, but both had problems, Cook with injury, Mixon struggling behind a bottom 3 run blocking line in the OL.

 

2016:

None

 

2015:

Gordon (I was not buying, I just don't buy Wisconsin RB's period. Don't trust RB's coming out of that blocking system, in that traditionally unathletic conference (it's getting better lately with Ohio State joined by hyperathletes at Penn State and Michigan). 

 

2014:

None

 

2013:

None

 

2012:

Doug Martin: Bizarre RB, and now has been suspended to go with erratic good one year awful next production.

 

David Wilson: Looked good early before sustaining career ending injury. 

 

2011:

Mark Ingram: Has been worth drafting slotting though perhaps didn't quite live up to some of the hype.

 

2010:

CJ Spiller Was seen by a few as Reggie Bush 2.0, but I think a lot of people at the time thought the pick was idiotic.

 

Ryan Mathews:: Sustained a litany of injuries derailing his career.

 

Jahvid Best: Career ending injury during rookie contract.

 

2009:

Knowshon Moreno: Didn't live up to billing

 

Donald Brown: Bust

 

Beanie Wells: Bust

 

2008:

Jonathan Stewart: Injury prone but for the most part a hit.

 

Felix Jones:Bust

 

Rashard Mendenhall: Modest Hit

 

Chris Johnson:Star before injuries sapped him of his gamebreaking elite speed

 

2007:

 

Marshawn Lynch: Hall of Famer

 

 

2006:

 

Laurence Maroney: Bust

 

DeAngelo Williams:Excellent

 

Joseph Addai:Modest performer before tailing off, not quite a bust but not a hit either.

 

2005:

 

None

 

2004:

 

Steven Jackson: All Pro borderline HOF caliber player

 

Chris Perry: Bust

 

Kevin Jones: disappointing but not total bust.

 

2003: 

 

Willis McGahee: National Title game ruined elite talent, but he managed to be a solid 1000 yard rusher type.

 

Larry Johnson: Elite before injuries sapped him of his talent

 

2002:

William Green: Bust

 

TJ Duckett: Bust

 

2001:

Deuce McAllister: Solid to above average RB.

 

Michael Bennett: Solid before injuries derailed his career.

 

2000: 

 

Ron Dayne: Bust (and some of us like me called that a mile away-don't like those Wisconsin system RB's, especially unathletic ones unlike Michael Bennett)

 

Shaun Alexander: Pro Bowler before the sharpest and quickest decline I've ever seen for someone at that level.

 

Trung Candidate: Bust

 

1999:

None

 

1998:

 

Fred taylor: When not injured a borderline HOF talent.

 

Robert Edwards: Made Pro Bowl (when it was legit) as rookie, destroyed his career in beach football game at the Pro Bowl Festivities.

 

John Avery: Bust

 

So that's twenty years of RB's, so let's see how they did:

 

Total Selections: 35 (with Cook and Mixon last year)

 

 

Stars: 9 (including Dalvin Cook and Joe Mixon, so keep or subtract those if you like, I believe firmly in both of them)

 

Above Average:7

 

Average or below average: 5

 

Busts:10

 

Injury Exemptions: 4

 

 

So for me, that's basically about 21 out of 35 that have performed between below average to stardom levels. Only 10 buts that aren't injury related, so not too bad in my view.

 

You've got about a 25% chance of landing a star who stays healthy by drafting between the bottom of the top 10 and the end of round 1, about a 20% chance of drafting someone who will turn out to be a good to above average RB, about a 12% chance of drafting someone whose a place holder or just average in terms of performance, about a 33% chance or thereabouts of drafting a bust, and about a 10% chance of drafting someone whose career is completely derailed by injuries during their rookie contract. 

 

For me, that seems like solid odds. Not great by anymeans, but reasonable. 

[Peregrine]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Agree with part of your point but not the other part that suggests going post 2nd rd.   I don't want to draft a RB at #13.  If a big player falls that they love, name the guy we've talked about here, Fitzpatrick, Vea, D. James, etc.  Take the guy.  If not, I'd trade down and consider a RB later in that round where at least the draft geeks think the run will start on guys post Barkley.  Or i am willing to be patient to see who is left in the 2nd round

 

They don't have a 3rd rounder.  So we are talking two different tiers.  2nd round versus 4th round.

 

Tier of:  S. Michel, R. Jones, D. Guice, R. Penny,   Maybe K. Johnson, Chubb,  (whomever is left from that group)

 

Vs.

 

Tier of:  Freeman, Kelly, Walton, Wadley, Hines, Ballage, etc.

 

I might feel differently if they had their 3rd rounder because you never know there could be an unexpected drop.  But if we are banking on the 4th round, there is a good chance we are deep into the third tier of RBs.  To me that would be deja vu and deja vu in a bad way.  I guess if the team showed they were really good, Shanny style, at finding those 4th rd and lower rd Rbs, I'd go on that ride.  But aside from the Shanny years -- its not been a fun ride ignoring the upper rounds for RB. 

The often heard very true quote of "Those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it" comes to play here.  It does not matter as much how much you like certain guys in certain rounds this year, as it does what history has proven time and time again in the NFL draft.  In previous years all kinds of people liked the RBs drafted in the 1st and 2nd round better than those drafted in the 3rd and 4th.  And time and time again it was proved by actual results, not pre-draft hopes, that good backs come just as often in 3-5 as they do in 1-2.  I did a write up on the top 10 backs from 2016, and almost every single one was either a top 10 elite pick, or rounds 3-5 guy.  So what if we take a look again at this years results?  Looking at the top 10 backs, who not only had over 700-800 yards but high YPA, so not just guys who got excessive volume, they were: Alvin Kamara(3rd round), Dion Lewis(5th round), Mark Ingram(1st round), Kareem Hunt(3rd round), Todd Gurley(1st round), Alex Collins(5th round), LeGarrette Blount(Undrafted), Devonta Freeman(4th round).

 

If you go top 10 in pure yardage even with those only average 4 ypc, you end up with Hunt, Gurley, LeVeon Bell(2nd round), LeSean McCoy(2nd round), Ingram, Jordan Howard(5th round), Melvin Gordon(1st round), Leonard Fournette(1st round), CJ Anderson(undrafted), Ezekiel Elliott(1st round), Alex Collins(5th round). So even the less productive backs but more so just show a team dedicated to run the ball you still see only a couple of exceptions to the rule of either draft the very top RB early, or dont touch one until rounds 3-5.  The odds of a RB hitting later in the first or early in the 2nd are slim to nil, the cost is high, and there are so many top NFL RBs available in the 3rd round, in the 4th round, and in the 5th round.

[GhostofAlvinWalton]

2 hours ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Two of these signings in free agency preclude teams who may have gone RB in Rounds 1 and 2 from doing so. Not to say they will avoid it altogether, but I think it does limit what they do in the first 2 rounds: San Francisco and Cleveland   

 

You can probably add NYJ to that list as well.  They'll probably wait till after the 2nd for RB with all the holes they need to fill.

[Peregrine]

51 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

 

Interesting argument. I don't think there's correlation or causation there though. Historically speaking, the 2009-2014 RB classes were horrific, after a bounce back in '15, the '16 class was also predicted to be awful and it has been, now we have two more quality ones in '17 and '18 followed by another bad one next year in '19.

 

No offense, but I think most would put a 1 in 4 chance of landing a start with the #13 pick as terrible odds, that will sink a franchise.  Think about it, in our past 6 drafts it appears we have hit on 4 of the 6 picks with 1 unknown in Doctson. Thats a rate of at least 67%, not 25% at positions that are much harder to get later in the draft.

 

Then when you can get similar odds for faaaaaar less risk in the 3rd-5th rounds of the draft you consider how bad of a deal 25% is.  Our 1st round pick is worth 1150 points, or three 3rd rounders, three 4th rounders, and three 5th rounders(value of 969).  We could just use one 1st rounder and accumulate those 9 picks in the middle and get a star RB, and then save our other three 1st round picks.

 

 

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

I don't want to spend a 1st on a RB.  I do like Ronald Jones, Michel, Guice, or Chubb in the 2nd.

 

Keep in mind I like all of these guys, but they're not without worry.  What I'm worried about with Jones is he weighs 205 lbs and struggles to regain balance once he's lost it.  I worry he might be best as a change of pace guy that plays on 3rd downs.  We sort of have that with Chris Thompson.  Guice can do it all, but has a history of nagging injuries (that he'll admirably play through), and those tend to compound.  Michel has burst, a lot of it, he picks his spot and hits it hard.  I think he's a perfect Shanahan back.  I don't think he's got much if any wiggle, and won't make much out of a busted play.  With good blocking, Michel could be a pain to defend against, because he'll shift speeds to be where he needs to be when the hole opens up, and then he'll head downhill quickly.

 

I have a feeling fears over Chubb's national championship game against Alabama would loom large and he'd be there at #44.  When re-watching that cutup, there's not much he can do on some of those plays.  Alabama's defense was in the backfield A LOT.  Chubb has good burst (more than Perine/Fat Rob), but not like the above guys.

 

Chubb reminds me of Frank Gore.  Bad knee injury in college that sapped his otherworldly talent.  Finished his college career healthy.  What I like about both, is that I think both have better vision.  They've had to adapt from what they once were able to do, and figure out what works.

[The Consigliere]

32 minutes ago, Peregrine said:

The often heard very true quote of "Those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it" comes to play here.  It does not matter as much how much you like certain guys in certain rounds this year, as it does what history has proven time and time again in the NFL draft.  In previous years all kinds of people liked the RBs drafted in the 1st and 2nd round better than those drafted in the 3rd and 4th.  And time and time again it was proved by actual results, not pre-draft hopes, that good backs come just as often in 3-5 as they do in 1-2.  I did a write up on the top 10 backs from 2016, and almost every single one was either a top 10 elite pick, or rounds 3-5 guy.  So what if we take a look again at this years results?  Looking at the top 10 backs, who not only had over 700-800 yards but high YPA, so not just guys who got excessive volume, they were: Alvin Kamara(3rd round), Dion Lewis(5th round), Mark Ingram(1st round), Kareem Hunt(3rd round), Todd Gurley(1st round), Alex Collins(5th round), LeGarrette Blount(Undrafted), Devonta Freeman(4th round).

 

If you go top 10 in pure yardage even with those only average 4 ypc, you end up with Hunt, Gurley, LeVeon Bell(2nd round), LeSean McCoy(2nd round), Ingram, Jordan Howard(5th round), Melvin Gordon(1st round), Leonard Fournette(1st round), CJ Anderson(undrafted), Ezekiel Elliott(1st round), Alex Collins(5th round). So even the less productive backs but more so just show a team dedicated to run the ball you still see only a couple of exceptions to the rule of either draft the very top RB early, or dont touch one until rounds 3-5.  The odds of a RB hitting later in the first or early in the 2nd are slim to nil, the cost is high, and there are so many top NFL RBs available in the 3rd round, in the 4th round, and in the 5th round.

 

 

I just don't really agree much with you hear. I also scrolled through twenty years of drafts, and also through the great RB drought of 2009-2016 (2015 exempted). I don't think this 1st-2nd round gap you suggest is really there at all, and it's not really a thing. I do think you can hit on day 3 RB's plenty (just compare it to day 3 QB's which have hit at a rate below I think 5 or 6% over the past decade), but I don't think there's any correlation beyond just the fact that there are way, way, way more opportunities to hit on RB's after say the top 30 picks because there's another 200+ picks to work with as compared to the top 30. You're going to hit more often just based on the fact that every year you have 15-20 RB's drafted between around slot 35 and Mr. Irrelevant, and from 0-3 or 4 in the top 30. Of course you have more hits.

 

Also worth noting is a couple of other factors:

 

#1: The Great RB Drought

2009-2014 was the worst era for RB prospects in the history of the NFL BY FAR. Nothing comes close, and you can add the '16 class which was also absolutely horrific. 

 

#2: The 2017-2018 classes are generally regarded as the best back to back RB classes ever, and two of the best RB classes to come around in the past three decades in terms of depth and top end talent.

 

#3: Career ending injuries: Over the past 20 years a pile of RB's drafted in the top 30 or so overall have sustained career ending injuries before they even had a chance to show what they were:

 

1998:

 

Robert Edwards: Probably on his way to an all pro career considering he got a pro bowl invite as a rookie. Destroyed his knee in Hawaii in a beach football game, career over.

 

Fred Taylor: Nicknamed Fragile Fred and Fraud Taylor by exasperated fantasy owners during his career, he likely would have been a HOF if he hadn't suffered a series of nagging injuries, season ending injuries, and one of the most horrific descriptions of an injury I've ever heard and despite all that, he was a still logged a pile of pro bowl worthy seasons.

 

2001:

 

Michael Bennett sustained a series of injuries that destroyed his career after a promising start.

 

2003:

Willis McGahee had his career wrecked by an injury in his last college game.

         

Larry Johnson: exploded onto the scene as Priest Holmes career was derailed by injuries and then he himself lost his career to knee injuries.

 

2010:

Jahvid Best: Lost his career just as it was blossoming.

 

Ryan Mathews: Became almost a joke due to a series of injuries which derailed all but two of his 7 NFL seasons (and he produced the two lone years he was fully healthy)

 

CJ Spiller: Was an obvious overdraft at the time, but expected career was largely derailed by injuries which sapped his athleticism.

 

2012: 

 

David Wilson: Suffered a career ending injury in his first season. Looked superb in early action before the injury.

 

2013:

Marcus Lattimore: Suffered career derailing injuries in college, never made it back. 

 

All in all this would be essentially be 10 of the top 36 backs taken in round 1 since 1998+ Lattimore who was a lock to be a first rounder before his last injury in college. Nearly 1/3 of the guys drafted in that zone you're talking about either suffered career destroying injuries before they'd even really started (Edwards, Best, Wilson and Lattimore), suffered a litany of injuries that sapped their athleticism and helped to destroy their careers during their rookie contract or shortly afterwards (Bennett, Johnson, Spiller and Mathews) or played through career harming injuries that drastically reduced what could have been (Fred Taylor and Willis McGahee). 

 

When i look at things this way, it really helps to elucidate the bust factor. There's a small cluster of guys who just flat out sucked (astericks mark guys that were scene at the time as having very high bust risk and were reaches or idiotic scouting reports): John Avery*, Ron Dayne*, Trung Candidate*,  TJ Duckett, William Green, Chris Perry*, Laurence Maroney, Felix Jones, Beanie Wells and Donald Brown (I may be being a bit too harsh on Jones who disappointed but did have a career, while guys like Avery, Dayne, Candidate and Perry (hell I don't even remember Perry) just wreaked of bust, while later picks like Wells and Browns looked like reaches at the time, and proved to be reaches. All the same, these guys definitely didn't live up to billing, and it wasn't health which was to blame and there are essentially 10 of them out of 36 (if you include Lattimore in the overall total) in the past 36 years. 

 

That's not that bad of a bust rate all things considered, that being said, if you add in the guys who had career killing injuries early, it starts to look worse, but career killing injuries for the most part w/those guys weren't linked to predictable factors (those guys weren't largely BMI risks). 

 

To me, the draft looks like it has 3 core tiers of RB's plus a bunch of satellite backs:

 

I think you rank them as you see them, and take the ones that represent the best value and fit for your team/or superlative talent and you figure out how to use it rather than force it:

 

For me that's:

1. Barkley

 

Tier 2:

Guice

Chubb

Michell

Freeman

Penny

 

Then a big Tier 3 that I wouldn't use a top 2 round pick on. There are guys in that third group that have interesting markers but also a lot of concerns: Walton (is he still hurt hence the god awful combine), Kelly (why was his combine so awful), Roc Thomas (Former five star recruit and small school transfer, is he better than we think?), Ronald Jones (a bit too small for what we want to do), Kerryon Johnson (agility score was bad, bp was horrible, and he didnt run the 40 at the combine, all red flags), Kalen Ballage (production was god awful considering athleticsm, weak bp backs up argument that he is another michael westbunk (not a lot of passion for the game), Scarbrough (old and overage and injury prone but crazy athletic still), and Justin Jackson (much more athletic at combine then expected, but a ton of wear on his tires at Northwestern).

 

There are guys in that third tier that I find interesting and would take a flyer on, but I think you take one of them rather than one of the guys in my top 6, odds are you're going to get a bust to add to a bench already full of them. I would look at the big 6, and grab the one that makes the most sense, and if you want to take another swing, see if Walton and Kelly have better pro days, and/or you can take swings at guys like Thomas, Johnson, Scarbrough and Jackson if they fall out of the top 100, but I wouldn't take any of them in the top 3 rounds. Way too many red flags. I wouldn't touch Ballage w/o being confident in his mental make up after serious inteviews and background checks. 

 

 

[Going Commando]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Exactly what I am thinking.  I guess there is a shot that Sony Michel is there in the 2nd because of this 4.5 and change 40 time at the combine but I still think he's likely gone before our pick in the 2nd.  Ditto every player you mention.  Maybe Penny and K. Johnson is still there.

 

I think there is a good chance of a run happening in the first six picks in the second round.  The value matches up with needs in that range.

[Skinsinparadise]

1 minute ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

I think there is a good chance of a run happening in the first six picks in the second round.  The value matches up with needs in that range.

 

Agree.  I think Guice and R. Jones gone by our 2nd round pick for sure.  Michel probably gone.   The likely mystery would be whose left among Penny, Chubb, K. Johnson at the 13th pick in the 2nd. 

 

Personally, I'd rather have Michel, Guice, Jones.  So I'd trade back unless there is a real surprise drop at 13 like Fitzpatrick.

[Darth Tater]

3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Agree with part of your point but not the other part that suggests going post 2nd rd.   I don't want to draft a RB at #13.  If a big player falls that they love, name the guy we've talked about here, Fitzpatrick, Vea, D. James, etc.  Take the guy.  If not, I'd trade down and consider a RB later in that round where at least the draft geeks think the run will start on guys post Barkley.  Or i am willing to be patient to see who is left in the 2nd round

 

They don't have a 3rd rounder.  So we are talking two different tiers.  2nd round versus 4th round.

 

Tier of:  S. Michel, R. Jones, D. Guice, R. Penny,   Maybe K. Johnson, Chubb,  (whomever is left from that group)

 

Vs.

 

Tier of:  Freeman, Kelly, Walton, Wadley, Hines, Ballage, etc.

 

I might feel differently if they had their 3rd rounder because you never know there could be an unexpected drop.  But if we are banking on the 4th round, there is a good chance we are deep into the third tier of RBs.  To me that would be deja vu and deja vu in a bad way.  I guess if the team showed they were really good, Shanny style, at finding those 4th rd and lower rd Rbs, I'd go on that ride.  But aside from the Shanny years -- its not been a fun ride ignoring the upper rounds for RB. 

Problem is that going back to at least 1964, we have never drafted a primary RB higher than 4.  We also have a solid history over multiple FOs of finding great RBs in the 4th or later: Larry Brown (Lombardi), Mike Thomas (George Allen), Stephen Davis (Casserly-Turner), Aflred Morris (Allen-Shannahan).  Meanwhile, we've seen busts with many of our RB picked 3 or higher by us: Barrington(3 in 1966), McDonald(1 in 1967), Cross(3 who was Lombardi pick), Williams(2 who was a Beathard guy).  We also took Oliphant at 3 though he did help us get Byner. Cass-Gibbs did take Ervins who did well as a change of pace guy for us.  Cass-Pettibon took Brooks who had a decent rookie season but was a bust after that. Hicks was a Cass-Turner guy, never really amounted to much. Best was Betts who was a Bug-SOS guy but did only have one good year and was a only a decent back up otherwise.  Jones was a Scott-Jay guy. Actually, any success at RB over multiple FOs seems to be more about throwing guys against the wall and seeing who sticks.

 

Yes, we did have a few high pick RBs that were good or better but they all were basically the results of trades or FAs.  Of course, we have also seen a few good ones who were actually pretty low picks by their original teams.

[The Consigliere]

34 minutes ago, Peregrine said:

No offense, but I think most would put a 1 in 4 chance of landing a start with the #13 pick as terrible odds, that will sink a franchise.  Think about it, in our past 6 drafts it appears we have hit on 4 of the 6 picks with 1 unknown in Doctson. Thats a rate of at least 67%, not 25% at positions that are much harder to get later in the draft.

 

Then when you can get similar odds for faaaaaar less risk in the 3rd-5th rounds of the draft you consider how bad of a deal 25% is.  Our 1st round pick is worth 1150 points, or three 3rd rounders, three 4th rounders, and three 5th rounders(value of 969).  We could just use one 1st rounder and accumulate those 9 picks in the middle and get a star RB, and then save our other three 1st round picks.

 

 

 

You need to look at the classes themselves, and the players themselves. I think it's perfectly fine to take shots at RB later in drafts, particularly in the 50-100 zone, but I also think you need to look at the classes and see what you have.

 

Just recently:

 

2009-2014: Every single one of them was known to be horrible at the time of the draft, zero reason to reach on RB in any of those drafts which is why a few had either 1, or even zero RB's drafted in round 1.

 

20015: First quality class since 2008, was known at the time that the asset in the class outside of Gurley was in it's top end depth (basically a giant pile of guys with similar evaluations to 2018's tier 2 guys).

 

Bust or not, from that class you would have been wise to throw a dart considering the depth of available on day 2 of the draft (avoiding day 1 unless for Gurley).

 

Namely:

1. Gurley

Tier 2:

2. Gordon-I didn't rate him, just don't trust Wisconsin RB's. 

3. Duke Johnson

4. Ameer Abdullah

5. TJ Yeldon

6. David Cobb

7. Tevin Coleman

8. David Johnson

9. Jay Ajayi

 

That's a pretty enormous tier 2 as you can see, and there's only one real non-injury related bust in the group (Cobb). At the time it was viewed as a superlative class in terms of depth and time has proven that judgment correct. It's interesting to look at the prospects and see how the eval has gone.

 

2. Gordon: I didn't trust him because of the Wisconsin angle, he was good to very good across the board in terms of athelticism, but during his career he's been dinged and not been able to showcase the athleticism with consistency.

 

3. Duke: I loved, loved, loved him, and then the idiot Browns coach decided to make him a pure satellite back despite having just enough size to have been a bell cow at Miami and the most productive one ever. I'm still convinced he's a star used improperly, as a Sat back he's been outstanding.

 

4. Ameer: Looked fantastic early, never been remotely as good since his September 2016 injury.

 

5. Yeldon: Looked liked a bust until he developed into a good Sat Back with jacksonville last year.

 

6. Cobb-Mega Bust

 

7. Coleman: Fear was he was much better passing game/straight line runner than a traditional back. Has split time w/Freeman and been excellent if dinged a lot.

 

8. David Johnson: Perhaps the funniest of all eval's and one I remember the most. He was hated on, and I mean HATED on by the tape geeks for running supposedly without toughness and being garbage inside. The he became the best young RB in the NFL in 2016 before tearing his ACL in 2017. 

 

9. Ajayi: Never seemed a good fit in Miami where they only begrudginly gave him the full time gig. Had a 2nd/3rd round grade before the draft before medicals destroyed his valuation. 

 

That was just a fantastic class.

 

Then it was followed up by an all time awful class in '16 that genuinely gave 2011 and 2013 a run for their money as the worst RB classes in the past 30 years (minus Zeke of course). 

 

Then you get the '17 and '18 classes which have more depth than the 2009-2014+ the 2016 classes combined and more elite talent as well. 

 

All of this really hinges on class quality, injury, evaluation and talent. Some misses are shockers that anyone would have missed on (Trent Richardson), others are clear reaches and not surprisingly disappointed (Ron Dayne, CJ Spiller, and Trung Cadidate come to mind). What you need to do is an excellent evaluation and then keep your fingers crossed that they can stay healthy (some injury issues are predictable and semi-preventable (hamstring), others can be more problematic (high ankle, soft tissue) and still others can be catastrophic and without warning (knee). 

 

To me if you look at the top end candidates there's info that can help you:

 

1. Barkley: We aren't getting him so no need to think about him.

 

2. Guice: Already showing a bad trendline with injuries, and while he plays through them, '17 is full and compelling evidence that his play dramatically suffers when he's hurt. He also was much weaker than expected in the bench though he tested well otherwise.

 

3. Chubb: Had a near career killing injury in 2015 that appeared to drastically sapp the explosion his game once he got back to the field in '16 (a decline of nearly 40% in YPC without the commensurate decline in OL talent that might explain away such a problem), in '17 he got back about 10% of that YPC that he had lost, but still didn't look on tape or in the numbers like the same back. Then he tested nearly as impressively as he had exiting high school at the Nike Camp. Only the 40 showed any decline at all.

 

If you take Chubb you should worry that 1.) he'll never be all the way back,regardless of his testing and 2.) if he has another knee injury, that could be a HUGE problem. 

 

4. Royce Freeman: Hugely productive but most people expected him to test much more sluggishly. Instead he showed very good speed for his size and plenty of athleticism for said size. His enormous production since arriving on campus are all positive markers but when people think you're slower on tape it's time to worry again if you're translating all the athleticsm to the field. Otoh, even if he looks slower, he sure as heck didn't produce at a lower level, instead he was a monster producer. Draft knowing if you are a tape guy, there's a bit of a discrepancy between the look on the tape, the production on the field, and the athelticism.

 

5. Penny: Worst pass blocking RB on the planet. Can you cope w/that and not punish him for something you know ahead of time he's ghastly, like worst ever, ghastly?

 

6. Michel: Why did he test signicantly worse than many expected? Was his remarkable supply of explosive plays more a product of his getting work against small defensive fronts that gave him more space than Chubb ever typically got?

 

 

These are my questions for the big 6. All but Barkley really have at least some niggling questions. Are they enough to worry you away knowing the next tier has a great deal more questions?