PleaseBlitz Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 As an update on the 538 Election Forecast and my teetering sanity: The Deluxe Model's chance of winning forecast had been steady at 87% for Joe for about a week. On Monday it ticked up to 88%. Yesterday it ticked down to 87%, causing me to wonder if jumping out of a 4th floor window would do the job or just hurt a lot, then today it ticked back up to 88%. The Economist pegs it at 93% chance of a Biden win, up from 90% on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skinsmarydu Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 22 minutes ago, PleaseBlitz said: As an update on the 538 Election Forecast and my teetering sanity: The Deluxe Model's chance of winning forecast had been steady at 87% for Joe for about a week. On Monday it ticked up to 88%. Yesterday it ticked down to 87%, causing me to wonder if jumping out of a 4th floor window would do the job or just hurt a lot, then today it ticked back up to 88%. The Economist pegs it at 93% chance of a Biden win, up from 90% on Sunday. It was really foggy at the bottom today, would anyone have seen you? Edit to correct: now I see you meant yesterday. my caffeine is not working Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDoyler23 Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, PleaseBlitz said: As an update on the 538 Election Forecast and my teetering sanity: The Deluxe Model's chance of winning forecast had been steady at 87% for Joe for about a week. On Monday it ticked up to 88%. Yesterday it ticked down to 87%, causing me to wonder if jumping out of a 4th floor window would do the job or just hurt a lot, then today it ticked back up to 88%. The Economist pegs it at 93% chance of a Biden win, up from 90% on Sunday. My mood depends on that, along with some twitter poll aggregators Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Evil Genius Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Biden having a 6 to 7 pt lead in Pennsylvania should help calm the nerves. Less election modeling, more bourbon helps too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fan since a Fetus Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Didn't want to post the pic/meme because of a curse word. But here is what it says: I moved on him like a ****. I just start voting. I don't even wait until Election Day. Just voted. And when you are registered they let you do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeTheBeal! Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purbeast Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Those of you who voted by mail ballot in MD... How long after it went to status "Received" did it take for your status to change to "Accepted" which means it was counted? Just curious when I should expect it to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCalMike Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 If Trump is so wrecked over the 60 Minutes interview, it's an odd strategy to tweet about it which means even more people will likely tune in now. I also have to imagine his tweet about "releasing the full interview" actually means cutting & pasting edited clips of which all of his own followers will watch instead of the actual interview. I haven't watched 60 Minutes in years, but I am definitely setting the DVR for Sunday. Just now, purbeast said: Those of you who voted by mail ballot in MD... How long after it went to status "Received" did it take for your status to change to "Accepted" which means it was counted? Just curious when I should expect it to change. I'm in CA so this probably doesn't help a ton. I dropped my ballot off at a drop box inside the grocery store. Took about a week to receive an email saying it had been received and my vote will be counted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BatteredFanSyndrome Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Early voting started today in Jefferson County, WV. I planned to wait it out but my curiosity led to me driving to the courthouse this morning to take a look. Downtown Charles Town hasn't seen that many people since John Brown was hung. Line wrapped around for blocks. I simply didn't have the time for that, so the wife and I are going to wait until next week, mid morning or mid afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spaceman Spiff Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 26 minutes ago, TryTheBeal! said: Coincidence? I think not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Evil Genius Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 22 minutes ago, NoCalMike said: I'm in CA so this probably doesn't help a ton. I dropped my ballot off at a drop box inside the grocery store. Took about a week to receive an email saying it had been received and my vote will be counted. Same for me in California. Drop-off at library on Tuesday, got the email notification the following Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skinswillwin06 Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 26 minutes ago, purbeast said: Those of you who voted by mail ballot in MD... How long after it went to status "Received" did it take for your status to change to "Accepted" which means it was counted? Just curious when I should expect it to change. The told me they received mine on the 13th. As of today, still no update as to whether it's been accepted or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Evil Genius Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 20 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said: Early voting started today in Jefferson County, WV. I planned to wait it out but my curiosity led to me driving to the courthouse this morning to take a look. Downtown Charles Town hasn't seen that many people since John Brown was hung. Line wrapped around for blocks. I simply didn't have the time for that, so the wife and I are going to wait until next week, mid morning or mid afternoon. Rockwool and Trump. Match made in heaven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BatteredFanSyndrome Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 1 minute ago, The Evil Genius said: Rockwool and Trump. Match made in heaven. No doubt. There is no chance in the world Biden is winning this state but I will say the line looked more like prototype Biden voters than the usual Magats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PleaseBlitz Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Virginia, so far as I can tell, says my ballot has been received but will not report on whether it has been counted, which is annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Evil Genius Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said: No doubt. There is no chance in the world Biden is winning this state but I will say the line looked more like prototype Biden voters than the usual Magats. My folks moved last year from JeffCo down to Greenbrier County and they've encountered the same level of Trumpers in both places. Sad what that state has done to itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fergasun Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 CNN: How 6 First Time Voters View the Election Quote Going through the immigration process, moral character is one of the most important things. If you lie, it can disqualify you. Or if you get caught in a lie. Or because simply you forgot something. Or if your data is not accurate. That's one of the reasons I'm voting against this President, because he has lied to the American people so much. Quote I like certain things on both sides -- what Trump says and what (Joe) Biden says. Trump, right now, he's pushing people in my country -- the government and the Taliban to sit together and talk, which has never happened before. I kind of like it. It's not just thinking about destroying. It's not just thinking, fight, fight, fight. And Biden said if he becomes president, he's going to be more open to letting refugees come here. This is good. Quote Personally, I did want to vote for Trump. But I'm still learning more about it. Hopefully I'll be able to decide when I get to the polls. I haven't figured everything out. ...There were a lot of benefits that happened to me personally when Trump became president, so that's why I'm leaning towards him. But I just want somebody who can make the lives of everyone better The ones I didn't quote had Latin American backgrounds and it was pretty obvious who they were voting for (not Trump). All these voters are in Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spaceman Spiff Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 25 minutes ago, PleaseBlitz said: Virginia, so far as I can tell, says my ballot has been received but will not report on whether it has been counted, which is annoying. Do like you do on here and get all lawyerly on them, I'm sure they'll quake in their boots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGoodBits Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 32 minutes ago, PleaseBlitz said: Virginia, so far as I can tell, says my ballot has been received but will not report on whether it has been counted, which is annoying. Believe that it won’t be counted until Election Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PleaseBlitz Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 West Virginians line up as in-person early voting starts https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2020/10/21/trump-biden-live-updates/#link-MASHETFZTVB3TAMDZDRHA6ERSM Quote Lynessa Deshields and her grandmothers were among the first voters at an old shopping mall in Morgantown, home to West Virginia University and drug company Mylan Pharmaceuticals. One of four polling places in the county, dozens of masked voters waited inside the building, in a line that snaked around the corner and down a long hallway. It was the first election for Deshields, a 21-year-old incoming Purdue student. She intended to vote by mail, but said she applied for an absentee ballot and didn't get a response. "I'm excited. I'm glad that I did it," she said. “I am so proud of her,” said 68-year-old Rose Vergara, of her granddaughter, both Democrats who voted for Biden. “Today makes me hopeful. I’ve been depressed for four years through this administration.” She's hopeful, too, because she said she's talked to West Virginians whose support for Trump has waned during the pandemic -- and as his pledge to bring back coal to Appalachia failed to revive the struggling industry. Hazel Oldland, an 81-year-old Republican, said she voted Wednesday “to show my support and let [Trump] know I’m behind him” and because she doubted a mail-in ballot would make it to its intended destination. Voters generally seemed confident in their local elections officials to count votes fairly but were split along party lines about whether Trump would concede if he loses. “I believe that he will agree to it. I think he will leave peacefully. I pray he’ll leave peacefully,” Oldland said. Voters said they were drawn to polls to ensure their vote was counted or to simply get it out of the way, but some were wary of the integrity of absentee voting. Ballots started going out in mid-September. Tammy Henry, 57, her husband, Bryan, 51, are both registered Republicans but cast votes for Biden Wednesday morning. "We've heard all the crap about mail-in voting being an issue. Well, I don't have an issue with it. But I wanted to make my vote got counted because of the chaos that man has created in the United States," Tammy Henry of Trump. All 55 counties in West Virginia went for Trump in the 2016 presidential election. Hillary Clinton captured her highest percentage of votes in Monongalia County, where Morgantown is the county seat, with 40 percent. The West Virginia Secretary of State's Office doesn't expect to have early voting turnout numbers until Wednesday evening or Thursday, but spokeswoman Jennifer Gardner said she's heard that polls have been busy. Early voting in the state ends Oct. 31. My wife's family lives in Morgantown and the surrounding area. Her folks are apolitical and don't pay much attention. Her 5 uncles either LOVE Trump or HATE him. They all work in or adjacent to the coal industry. I think Trump will win WV handily, but probably closer to 60% of the vote rather than the 70% he got in 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BatteredFanSyndrome Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 1 hour ago, The Evil Genius said: My folks moved last year from JeffCo down to Greenbrier County and they've encountered the same level of Trumpers in both places. Sad what that state has done to itself. Unfortunately, the state is a shining of example of what happens when you keep people dumb. Mind boggling considering Trump ran here on coal, coal, coal and it's as dead as it ever was. Not that he's going to lose here, but I did read somewhere that he's way down vs. where he was in 2016 - which tells me at least some people have their eyes open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCB Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Voted yesterday in downtown Durham. Let's get this **** done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fresh8686 Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooked Crack Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDoyler23 Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 53 minutes ago, Fresh8686 said: Iowa sounds like ground Zero for Biden's unification messaging. My family has 4 Iowa voters. In 2016 they went No choice, No choice, Clinton, and didn't vote. in 2020 it's Biden, Biden, Biden and Biden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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