visionary Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
88Comrade2000 Posted March 25, 2019 Author Share Posted March 25, 2019 One more thing about 2018 vs 2020. One big difference, Trump is on the ballot in 2020. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twa Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 7 hours ago, Rdskns2000 said: One more thing about 2018 vs 2020. One big difference, Trump is on the ballot in 2020. Yes and in general mid terms are influenced more by local/state issues and voters perception of the candidates....which is why turnout is lower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Evil Genius Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 21 minutes ago, twa said: Yes and in general mid terms are influenced more by local/state issues and voters perception of the candidates....which is why turnout is lower Which should scare conservatives since low voter turnout is what they want and got... and got smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
88Comrade2000 Posted March 25, 2019 Author Share Posted March 25, 2019 56 minutes ago, The Evil Genius said: Which should scare conservatives since low voter turnout is what they want and got... and got smoked. I think 2020 is going to have record turnout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Evil Genius Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 26 minutes ago, Rdskns2000 said: I think 2020 is going to have record turnout. By people named Boris? Seriously..doesn't every modern presidential election? It's the percentage of voters I wish we could increase every 4 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twa Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 1 hour ago, The Evil Genius said: Which should scare conservatives since low voter turnout is what they want and got... and got smoked. The Dems won many races by running more conservative candidates and more far left ones. the D are going thru a identity crisis, how well they handle it will be huge in 20 I ain't scared at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CousinsCowgirl84 Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 Probably better for republicans if a democrat wins in 2020... especially Biden or Bernie... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcsluggo Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 25 minutes ago, twa said: The Dems won many races by running more conservative candidates and more far left ones. the D are going thru a identity crisis, how well they handle it will be huge in 20 I ain't scared at all. I am glad you are confident the treason cheeto is going to be booted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PleaseBlitz Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 1 hour ago, Rdskns2000 said: I think 2020 is going to have record turnout. Agree, and record money spent. 9 hours ago, Rdskns2000 said: One more thing about 2018 vs 2020. One big difference, Trump is on the ballot in 2020. But who do you think that helps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jumbo Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 i said this 4-5 months ago, and i didn't think he'd be a likely primary winner, but one of the dems i like so far is pete buddhajudge i also like the idea of him as a veep with the most darwin-proven candidate left standing can we just go ahead and close the gop like a restaurant with too many code violations? even with all i still value in what i used to call conservatism, or even republicanism (a leeser label to me), i now think we'd do much better domestically and internationally if our government and society was just operating within the "left to right" range as it already exists in the dems/indies... a decent, functionally productive, and generally fair society doesn't really need anything from the gop per se, and in fact i see the gop having evolved into a very negative institution by any objective, fact-based, or ethically decent standard, even while fully noting the long list of serious shortcomings of liberalism/dems as a group the few truly moderate gopers left, and all the never-trumpers, could re-identify as the new indies if they don't wish to be the new "conservative extreme" of the dem party Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PleaseBlitz Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 https://cookpolitical.com/index.php/analysis/national/national-politics/dynamics-watch-2020 Quote In the 2016 general election, the Trump base—conservatives, working-class whites, small-town and rural whites, and white evangelicals—turned out in big numbers, some motivated then because of their passion for Donald Trump, others feeling slandered by Hillary Clinton and her labeling of them as “deplorables.” They voted last year as well, partly motivated by the fight over Brett Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court nomination, which reminded many of them why they now identify as Republicans. This made the difference in Senate races that were disproportionately being fought in red, Trump-friendly states, resulting in Republicans scoring a net gain of two Senate seats. But in suburban America, it was a different story, with other groups more than offsetting that Trump base turnout. Last year, long before we saw the highest midterm-election turnout since 1914, there was plenty of evidence of what was to come. Democratic primary turnout that had languished in the 2014 midterm election soared and vastly eclipsed the rate of GOP primary voting. Antipathy toward President Trump seemingly triggered not just voting but an unprecedented flood of money pouring into House races, with more than three dozen GOP incumbents finding themselves outspent by their Democratic challengers. For all of the attention paid to a handful of young and extremely liberal freshman House members elected to districts where GOP candidates need not apply, it was the surge of college-educated, suburban women who turbocharged last year’s Democratic gains, with pickups of long-held GOP districts in the metropolitan areas and bedroom communities outside places like Atlanta, Dallas, Houston, Kansas City, and Oklahoma City, as well as the four districts in Orange County, California. Expect a broad-based and massive turnout in Democratic primaries and caucuses next year, motivated in part by the same reaction we saw last year, but also by the enormous field of Democratic presidential contenders that will feature candidates sure to be lovingly caressing every erogenous zone of the Democratic body politic—offering something for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No Excuses Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 The GOP is going to be hilariously clown pounded in big metropolitan areas for the next decade or as long as the stank of Donald Trump reigns supreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PleaseBlitz Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 5 minutes ago, No Excuses said: The GOP is going to be hilariously clown pounded in big metropolitan areas for the next decade or as long as the stank of Donald Trump reigns supreme. The interesting thing for me is how long the "stank of Donald Trump" will last. I think liberals will forget as soon as he's not a direct threat (ever notice how protesting stopped being a near-weekly thing as soon as Pelosi had the gavel) and revert to infighting. I also think the GOP will retain dominance in rural areas and rather quickly creep back into the suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhead36 Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 Turnout #s don't matter as long as we have the elector college system in place. We need more liberal turnout in 50/50 or more conservative leaning states. We could have 20 million more voters but it doesn't matter if 15 million of them live in New York or California. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozo the kKklown Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 15 minutes ago, PleaseBlitz said: The interesting thing for me is how long the "stank of Donald Trump" will last. I think liberals will forget as soon as he's not a direct threat (ever notice how protesting stopped being a near-weekly thing as soon as Pelosi had the gavel) and revert to infighting. I also think the GOP will retain dominance in rural areas and rather quickly creep back into the suburbs. The Washington Post had articles last year saying, "Dubya aint that bad, right?" People have very short memories, to be generous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGoodBits Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 20 minutes ago, PleaseBlitz said: The interesting thing for me is how long the "stank of Donald Trump" will last. I think liberals will forget as soon as he's not a direct threat (ever notice how protesting stopped being a near-weekly thing as soon as Pelosi had the gavel) and revert to infighting. I also think the GOP will retain dominance in rural areas and rather quickly creep back into the suburbs. Not sure about suburbs moving back toward GOP... I'm in Trumpcountry and GOP support is completely cultural (simpleminded church folk afraid of abortions or gay people or whatever, white people afraid of brown people). Suburbs are losing a lot of that culture as they are becoming more diverse. More importantly, GOP has long abandoned serious policy proposals of any kind on any topic (climate, healthcare, recently even taxes and deficits). They don't have a leg to stand on in any area where white Christian messaging doesn't dominate. I don't really see that changing. In short, I don't see Trump being the only reason suburbs are moving away from the GOP. It's been trending that way for some time (though Trump may have accelerated it). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superozman Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 I'm curious if any momentum will gain behind Jeb Bush's comments about a Republican will run against Trump. I'm not surprised Jeb was the one that threw that out there, as he and Christie (per Christie interview on Maher) had a conversation after Trump did one of his many stupid things and they thought that he put himself out of the running in 2016. There might be someone who has enough backing/want to throw it out there to get feelers on what it would look like to run vs a sitting president. My opinion, order of how Republicans will end up voting is: 1. Straight ticket voters, people who don't care about Trump's personal life and Trump lovers - Trump 2. People who will vote to vote even though they don't like Trump or vote D, will vote Libertarian 3. People who do their research and can connect with a more center candidate - my opinion, will vote for someone like Yang or fall into the final category 4. Abstain from 2020 voting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PleaseBlitz Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 8 minutes ago, skinsfan_1215 said: Not sure about suburbs moving back toward GOP... I'm in Trumpcountry and GOP support is completely cultural (simpleminded church folk afraid of abortions or gay people or whatever, white people afraid of brown people). Suburbs are losing a lot of that culture as they are becoming more diverse. More importantly, GOP has long abandoned serious policy proposals of any kind on any topic (climate, healthcare, recently even taxes and deficits). They don't have a leg to stand on in any area where white Christian messaging doesn't dominate. I don't really see that changing. In short, I don't see Trump being the only reason suburbs are moving away from the GOP. It's been trending that way for some time (though Trump may have accelerated it). I hope you are right. I just think that all it will take to get a significant number of suburban voters on board will be to put forth candidates that aren't so overtly retrograde on the cultural issues. Meaning, they will still hold those stances, and still won't try to solve any serious issues for non-rich people, but they'll put a different face on it and that will be enough. Again, I hope I'm wrong and you are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGoodBits Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 3 minutes ago, PleaseBlitz said: I hope you are right. I just think that all it will take to get a significant number of suburban voters on board will be to put forth candidates that aren't so overtly retrograde on the cultural issues. Meaning, they will still hold those stances, and still won't try to solve any serious issues for non-rich people, but they'll put a different face on it and that will be enough. Again, I hope I'm wrong and you are right. The thing with the current GOP though, is that the extremism didn't start with Trump and it's not going to end with him either. Their 2024 candidate could make Trump look tame. Maybe that candidate won't be so blatantly immoral or crazy, but IMO will definitely be far right enough to make any trend of the suburbs back to the GOP unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 @skinsfan_1215 hmmmm.... I live in trump country suburbs too. I see exactly what you’re talking about, I just don’t see it moving as fast the conservatives here that don’t like trump always seem to get stuck on much of the dems platform. While they’re all for replacing trump, they’re not ok with many of the policy agendas the dems are hitting hard on right now. Expanding Medicare/universal healthcare, free college, redoing the EC (hahaha theyre never going to be ok with that), etc. theyre going to vote for trump because the dems are going to push hard on those things. Ultimately they’ll choose 4 more years of trump over supporting policie ideas they’re against. If the dems ran a “just get trump out” campaign I think they could win here. Instead they’re going to run a “new America” campaign and get stomped out as bad as Clinton was. They know this and they don’t care. We’ll see if it works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Wiggles Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 11 minutes ago, tshile said: If the dems ran a “just get trump out” campaign I think they could win here. Instead they’re going to run a “new America” campaign and get stomped out as bad as Clinton was. They know this and they don’t care. We’ll see if it works. I disagree. 2016 Hillary basically ran on don't let Trump in. She lost because her only real message was "I'm not Trump". If the 2020 Democratic nominee runs on "just get Trump out" they'll lose imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeTheBeal! Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 Maybe Dems should run on the ballooning of the Federal Debt under Trump? LULLLZZZZZ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
techboy Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 I've been thinking about it for a while, and I figure modern politics probably started in 1980 or so, or at least I'm going to use that time frame (40 years) because it's easy. In that time we've had four Republican Presidents (Reagan, HW Bush, W Bush, and Trump) and two Democrats (Clinton/Obama). The thing is, if you look at the Republicans, three of the four in terms of actually being politicians are blah to offensive. Trump is a dumpster fire who I thought was the worst candidate in history until he surprisingly became the second worst, W Bush was/is seen as a moron, and HW Bush is kind of like Hillary Clinton... boring but competent. Only Reagan was what you might consider inspiring (to the general populace.. I'm obviously leaving aside Trump's cult, which of course did help). For the Democrats, though, Clinton and Obama were both more like Reagan... they connect with people and make them dream of better things. I don't think that's a coincidence, either. The Electoral College tilts the playing field to the Republicans, so I suspect that you need a Reagan/(Bill) Clinton/ Obama type to win if you're a Democrat. The last "blah" Democrat was Carter, and he was a one termer who pretty much only got elected because of Watergate, back when the country as a whole could still feel and respond to shame. The sad thing is, that's not what you need to win a primary, and I'm afraid Democrats aren't pragmatic enough to realize that candidates like Hillary Clinton can't win in a stacked electoral college against even people like Donald Trump. I'm not sure who the next Obama/(Bill) Clinton is, but if Democrats want to win, they'd better find him/her, because Presidential elections are popularity contests, and the deck is already stacked against them. It's not fair, but that's the way life works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twa Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 Clinton and Obama were running when the economy and other things were rather dismal. Hard times tend to make folk seek change or inspiration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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