CBSsports.com: Redskins can bluff all they want, but Kirk Cousins holds all the cards

[skinfan2k]

Call me skeptical but i think we have to franchise him and make him show that he can have a 2nd great year.  We have been fooled multiple times on Qbs that have 1 good year.  I rather overpay for someone we know we will be the franchise

[RedBeast]

Then the price goes up..its beneficial to lock him in now. There's nobody on the bench to groom. Make the 5th year of the contract as an option. Then we have a quarterback for four years and time to plan/draft/groom just in case.

Griffin not panning out screwed us. Thank God Shanny had the sense to pick Cousins

[pjfootballer]

Then the price goes up..its beneficial to lock him in now. There's nobody on the bench to groom. Make the 5th year of the contract as an option. Then we have a quarterback for four years and time to plan/draft/groom just in case.

Griffin not panning out screwed us. Thank God Shanny had the sense to pick Cousins

Hey man. Good to see you back.

[RedBeast]

Hey man. Good to see you back.

Thanks man...

[isle-hawg]

Remember when most of you complained that we drafted a QB in the 4th after RG3?

LOL

Who among us thought it was a good idea...

Who among us thought it was a good idea...

Me.  I really liked it at the time and thought it a good idea, what I wanted and thought a great idea is if we would of drafted Wilson in the 3rd.  I held as fact RG3 was high risk and high reward, and seeing that sexy rexy - the only backup we had at the time and a turnover machine it made complete sense to me. 

[SkinsFTW]

Me. I really liked it at the time and thought it a good idea, what I wanted and thought a great idea is if we would of drafted Wilson in the 3rd. I held as fact RG3 was high risk and high reward, and seeing that sexy rexy - the only backup we had at the time and a turnover machine it made complete sense to me.

I liked it too and joked that he was going to be the next Gus Frerotte. He's actually already better than that.

[sjinhan]

Call me skeptical but i think we have to franchise him and make him show that he can have a 2nd great year. We have been fooled multiple times on Qbs that have 1 good year. I rather overpay for someone we know we will be the franchise

This is where I am... You can slightly overpay if you KNOW Cousins is the real deal (I am praying to God that he is) but you can live with over paying him...

But what you can't live with is paying market price for a franchise QB but then find out he isn't that guy

[RedBeast]

This is where I am... You can slightly overpay if you KNOW Cousins is the real deal (I am praying to God that he is) but you can live with over paying him...

But what you can't live with is paying market price for a franchise QB but then find out he isn't that guy

I understand this theory but my concern is long term stability at the position. We dont have any stable to pull from. Nobody drafted, riding the pine and learning behind him. Kirk was the pine.

I would pay him and beef up the bench over the next 4 to 5 drafts. 2019 Josh Rosen is coming out?

[RedskinDiehard]

So, if you let Kirk go then you're setting time table back another 3 years in order for the new QB to learn how to play in the NFL.  Any NFL free agent would be a journeyman. 

 

Set the time table back another 3 years??? We haven't won a playoff game since 2006. Yes... Kirk definitely helped the Redskins win a dilapidated NFC East division title this past season but his chance to prove he was the real deal came and went against Green Bay in the playoffs. If he had had a monster game against Green Bay and for that matter won a second playoff game this past off-season, this discussion would already be over but the fact remains Kirk still hasn't proven to be a game changer, superstar or stud elite level QB against an upper echelon opponent yet, during the course of his career. 

 

Any NFL free agent would be a journeyman??? Sam Bradford isn't a journeyman. Yeah... he didn't play well in his first year in Chip Kelly's offense but hypothetically, what if Kirk's and Sam's 2015 seasons were both anomalies respectively? Not likey but possible. Then maybe it is worth two 1st round draft picks to make that business decision.

 

McCloughan missed on Alex Smith??? Didn't Alex Smith just lead Kansas City to the playoffs, after a very slow start and to a playoff victory as well? And in spite of Scotty Mac missing on him, the Chiefs, which has been a frugal organization historically, deemed it prudent to pay him $17 million dollars a year. In hindsight, SF should have taken Aaron Rodgers 1st overall in that draft but in all fairness, Alex Smith isn't exactly a bust. If SF had it to do over again, after what we saw out of Kaepernick this past season, jettisoning Smith to KC may have been a rash decision. The benefit of hindsight has generated a lot of internet/social media experts.

 

Kirk is a lovable guy. He handles himself well at the podium. He is a team first guy. He's a family man. He's a God fearing man. etc etc etc but all of that doesn't mean he proved himself last season. The one thing my eye test has not seen from Kirk is arm talent. I have yet to see Kirk make a throw that blew me away and I am certain of that because that's the final test I have needed to see him pass in order to make up my mind about him and it just hasn't happened yet and probably won't happen.

 

When will all the football aficionados who have unconditional love for Kirk accept the fact that his arm talent does not justify anything close to a $20 million dollar a year contract? Kirk made some nice throws this season. He was accurate in the red zone and he avoided sacks behind a much improved offensive line. However, Kirk threw short passes all season long. A very small percentage of his passes were deep throws. When Kirk was on a roll the second half of the season, he didn't face any defenses that were above average. These are facts. 

 

If I needed a stranger to babysit my kids, I would call Kirk without hesitation. He is obviously a high character guy. If a guy is going to get elite QB money, he needs to have elite level talent. Kirk has proven himself to be a good quarterback so i would give him good QB money. He has not proven himself to be a great QB yet. So for that reason and that reason alone i would not pay him at an elite level at this juncture.

 

Scot McGloughan isn't a fool...

[skinfan2k]

I understand this theory but my concern is long term stability at the position. We dont have any stable to pull from. Nobody drafted, riding the pine and learning behind him. Kirk was the pine.

I would pay him and beef up the bench over the next 4 to 5 drafts. 2019 Josh Rosen is coming out?

 

well he would be here next year and then you give him a big deal next offseason 

[RedBeast]

Well I'm glad that I am not GMSM. He has a tough decision to make. He is trying to build for long term and this decision is huge IMO. We have already offered 15M (through the rumor mill). IMO a one year tag is not going to help the long term strategy. He might get tagged, briefly, but ultimately I believe a long term deal will get done where both sides feel reasonably satisfied.

[goskins10]

 

Set the time table back another 3 years??? We haven't won a playoff game since 2006. Yes... Kirk definitely helped the Redskins win a dilapidated NFC East division title this past season but his chance to prove he was the real deal came and went against Green Bay in the playoffs. If he had had a monster game against Green Bay and for that matter won a second playoff game this past off-season, this discussion would already be over but the fact remains Kirk still hasn't proven to be a game changer, superstar or stud elite level QB against an upper echelon opponent yet, during the course of his career. 

 

edit...

 

If I needed a stranger to babysit my kids, I would call Kirk without hesitation. He is obviously a high character guy. If a guy is going to get elite QB money, he needs to have elite level talent. Kirk has proven himself to be a good quarterback so i would give him good QB money. He has not proven himself to be a great QB yet. So for that reason and that reason alone i would not pay him at an elite level at this juncture.

 

Scot McGloughan isn't a fool...

 

 

 

So, Kirk didn't have a great second half in his first PO game with no running game and Def that looked like swiss cheese playing against one of the greatest QBs of all time who routinely go to the POs and has won a SB. So that 30 minutes of play was way more important than the entire last 10 gms where he played pretty damn well. I keep hearing this from people and sorry but it's the biggest bunch of BS I have ever heard.

 

How did Andrew Luck do in his first PO game? How about some others? RW stunk it up against. His D won him that SB. He did very little to help, he just didn't screw it up. Peyton Manning struggled in PO gms most of his career. Many, many, many QBs have had poor games in their first POs game. Hell Tom Brady's first 3 SBs were all from D not his play, two were on last second FGs. So making any kind of prediction as to how he will play based on the last 30 mins of his first ever PO gm (he was playing pretty well the first 30 until the Def starting giving up 10 yds a carry!!) portends of a mind made up no matter what he does that's just looking for any crack to jump into. It's total BS.

 

He may of may not be a franchise QB, but if we wait to "know" if anyone is a true franchise QB before paying them, we will continue the last 25 yrs! I ****ing tired of it! We need some consistency. If it costs us 3 yrs, fine!! Pay the kid! He may not be the greatest (I think he still have plenty of up side) but he is not going to be the worst either. The contract will be set so we can move on in 2 or at most 3 yrs.

 

 

Edit: I do agree saying Scot missed on Alex is just not true. Pre-draft Alex Smith was the consensus 1st pick going to the 49ers. Rogers was not higher than 6th in any pre-draft mock or analysis I saw. People were concerned about the system he came from, that his play would not translate to the NFL. And now with better coaching Alex is doing very well. He was actually playing pretty well when he was replaced by Colin K.

 

Edit: Fixed typos, hopefully.

[ncr2h]

If I needed a stranger to babysit my kids, I would call Kirk without hesitation. He is obviously a high character guy. If a guy is going to get elite QB money, he needs to have elite level talent. Kirk has proven himself to be a good quarterback so i would give him good QB money. He has not proven himself to be a great QB yet. So for that reason and that reason alone i would not pay him at an elite level at this juncture.

 

Scot McGloughan isn't a fool...

 

 

I disagree with every word of your post, except Mcloughan being a fool (although he does have a well-documented history of missteps at the QB position).  However, I would just like to point out that you're arguing against a straw man.  The entire point of signing Kirk to a long-term extension now is that we will not be paying him elite QB money.  The consensus is that Kirk will likely land a deal in the $15-18 million per year range.  There are currently 13 QBs in the league who make $18 million or more, and that number will only increase as QBs currently below that threshold sign mega deals.  So the debate is not to give him elite QB money, but rather to pay him like an average starting NFL QB (i.e. among the 13-18th highest paid players at his position).

 

If we fail to sign Kirk to a long term deal this offseason, and he plays at a similar (or better) level next year, we will then likely have to pay him as an elite QB because that's what he will effectively have revealed himself to be.

 

A parting thought - what's the point of bringing in a Scot Mcloughan if we're just going to wait until players play at an elite level before signing them to long term deals?  The point of having good talent evaluators is to be able to identify guys who are going to be good in the future, but are not quite there yet today.  That way, you can "buy low, sell high" instead of buying at the peak price as Vinny always did.  Kirk has played 26 NFL games now, and a competent evaluator of QB talent should have a pretty good idea of Kirk's value.

[RedBeast]

A good read, again from Hap in the twitter thread

http://overthecap.com/the-value-of-kirk-cousins-and-the-redskins-decisions/

[goskins10]

I disagree with every word of your post, except Mcloughan being a fool (although he does have a well-documented history of missteps at the QB position).  However, I would just like to point out that you're arguing against a straw man.  The entire point of signing Kirk to a long-term extension now is that we will not be paying him elite QB money.  

 

edit:

 

That way, you can "buy low, sell high" instead of buying at the peak price as Vinny always did.  Kirk has played 26 NFL games now, and a competent evaluator of QB talent should have a pretty good idea of Kirk's value.

 

Could you please provide said documentation? I have heard a lot of people say this, but no proof. I honestly would like to see what these reports

 

Most point to Alex Smith/Aaron Rogers. That is totally false. First, Scot had barely started with the team in 2005. Second, he was the director of player personnel, not the GM during that draft. Finally, and most importantly, all mocks and other analysis of that draft before the draft happened had Alex Smith as the consensus #1. Rogers was a concern because of the system he was coming from, hence the reason he dropped to the bottom of the draft. Not to mention, now that he is with better coaching, Alex is doing pretty well, not Aaron Rogers well, but not exactly bad.

 

If you have something tangible I would like to see it.

[ThomasRoane]

A parting thought - what's the point of bringing in a Scot Mcloughan if we're just going to wait until players play at an elite level before signing them to long term deals?

 

That's a very effective way of summing up the situation.  I've got no problem with the Redskins using the Franchise or even the Transition tag on Kirk.  I'd rather see the team go ahead and do a three year deal with options because I don't think Kirk will regress (and I trust Scot will build a solid team around him).  A three year window would work with the playmakers that are currently on the roster (DJax, Garcon, Reed, etc).  Even though we'd have to work a deal with all three I think more time with Kirk, a better run game, tight ends that can block, an improved O-line after more talent and time with Callahan then a three year run at the Super Bowl is not out of the question.  Especially with the improvements I expect to see on Defense. 

 

I got on my soap box about the rumor that the Redskins would (possibly) forego the tag at all and let Kirk test the market with no strings attached.  That would be a terrible decision on behalf of the Washington Redskins franchise who invested 4 years in the development of Kirk.  The team has endured the growing pains and deserves some kind of pay off for that.  To chance letting him walking away for a compensatory 4th in 2017 would be almost as catastrophic as giving up the bounty of picks for #10.  (I write that in hindsight of course cause at the time I was for it).  This is business.  I've got no problems with both parties working to get the best deal and I support the team trying to hold the cap hit down.  I just don't want them to risk getting nothing in return.  That would be foolish.

 

I stick by my assertion that available NFL QB free agents are journeymen.  If they were legit starters then they wouldn't be Free agents would they?  As far as my comment about McCloughan missing on QB's I think you guys missed where I wrote that picking a QB is not an exact science.  Hell, Bethard missed with Leaf, Ozzie missed on Boller, etc.  It happens because you just don't know how that kid will adjust to the NFL.  That's not a slam on Scot.  It's just a fact that NFL QB is the most difficult position to master in sports.  The hoodie got damn lucky with Brady (if he knew something he wouldn't have waited till the 6th round to pick him).  GB was lucky Rodgers dropped because of mechanical issues.  And yet people missed not because they were dumb but because they couldn't know that Aaron Rodgers wanted to be great so bad that he would completely overhaul his mechanics.  (Which is damn hard to do). 

 

One last thing about Alex Smith.  Did he lead his team to the playoffs or did his defense?  Not being a homer but if my offense needed to complete a 3rd and 12 to keep a game winning drive alive I'd chose Kirk over Alex Smith.  Alex is a good QB if he has a running game to keep his 3rd down conversions manageable (3rd and short).  Vs New England Alex completed 29/50 passes for 246 yards and 1 TD for a 4.92 yards per pass.  That just screams game manager to me.  Kirk vs NE was 22/40 for 217 yards for an average per pass of 9.86 yards.  And that was a game where 8 passes that were right on the money were dropped.

[Tsailand]

Kirk has played 26 NFL games now, and a competent evaluator of QB talent should have a pretty good idea of Kirk's value.

 

The worry is that Kirk's agent has a pretty good idea of his value, too.

 

Regardless, the franchise tag doesn't interfere with Scott building for the future with draft picks, and it only affects our cap for the current year.

 

If Kirk won't make a deal, I am absolutely on board with giving him his $19.6M and trying to make a playoff run.  Anything can happen in the playoffs.

 

If he plays at an elite level this year, but still doesn't want to make a deal, we can franchise his ass again in 2017 and make another playoff run. 

[gortiz]

I'm reading a lot that giving KC the franchise tag this year would really hurt the Skins in FA? Why? If they sign him to a contract we are probably looking at 17 million in 2016 right, franchise tag would be about 20 mil, does that three million make or break our free agency plans?

 

I'm missing something, I feel like I'm missing something ... 

[goskins10]

I'm reading a lot that giving KC the franchise tag this year would really hurt the Skins in FA? Why? If they sign him to a contract we are probably looking at 17 million in 2016 right, franchise tag would be about 20 mil, does that three million make or break our free agency plans?

 

I'm missing something, I feel like I'm missing something ... 

 

You are not missing a thing. Stuff like this keeps getting published to try and stir the pot. Throw enough mud on the wall, some of it might eventually stick.

 

The fans want this to be over. They want to know who their QB is going to be. The media wants it to be over so they can start trashing the Redskins no matter the choice - Transition tag - slap in Cousins face - Franchise Tag - slap in Cousins face and typical over spending for average players - long term deal - treated Cousins like crap with all the leaks - bad organization and still spending too much money for average to poor players - Just pic one, or hell pick them all. I am sure there others, but I think those hit the lowlights. 

 

The fact is Kirk has no reason to want a deal done before we tag him. Once we tag him, he is guaranteed almost $20M. That's when the negotiating starts. The team is not in any real hurry. They know about where they will be when they sign him and they have until July. I don't think it will take that long, but they might. I could see them signing him soon after the draft. Sit back, relax. Kirk Cousins will be next years starter barring injury. It's just a matter of how much he gets paid and for how long.

[Skinsinparadise]

The Insider ‏@Insider  29s29 seconds ago

Redskins and Cousins’s agent remain in talks; franchise tag still most likely http://wapo.st/1KYeITb 

 

 

People familiar with the team’s deliberations said over the weekend that the use of the transition tag seemed like a most unlikely scenario.

And last week, Coach Jay Gruden said that he was confident that Cousins would remain on the roster in 2016 either by the use of the franchise tag, or the agreement to a long-term deal.

Using the franchise tag would mean a higher salary-cap hit, but would provide greater security for Washington. And the team and Cousins could continue to negotiate toward a long-term deal up until July 15.

 

Washington currently has around $19 million in salary cap space. The impending release of Robert Griffin III would clear off another $16.155 million off the books, but Cousins’s $19.953 million in cap space would replace and surpass that. The team is expected to restructure the contract of safety Dashon Goldson, who has an $8 million cap hit for 2016, as well as several other higher-paid veterans on the roster.

 

[Momma There Goes That Man]

Any chance we can get Kirk to fire his agent and hire Mother****er Jones to handle contract negotiations?

[ThomasRoane]

The positive in franchising Kirk until they can settle in July is that it gives the FO some leverage with other players whose contracts need to be restructured.  They can end up renegotiating the contracts of several players to a more cap friendly amount and sell it as trying to ensure the QB they have come to believe in stays on the team.  Then, hopefully, they'll get Kirk's cap hit down to around $17 - $18 mil per year.  That would allow them to spread the rest of the money around to create more depth.  They should remain patient in negotiations because if they tag Kirk he will still go thru OTA's.  The negotiations can still take place only without all the pressure to rush into a bad deal for either party.

[SkinsFTW]

Any chance we can get Kirk to fire his agent and hire Mother****er Jones to handle contract negotiations?

Kirk needs to hire Tom Bradys agent IMO. That dude just resigned for about Garcon money.

Of course it's the Cheatriots so you know that probably leaves out some under the table shenanigans.

And I don't need to hear the "Brady doesn't care about money bs".

If that's the case then why doesn't Kraft just sign him for a lifetime supply of Kraft Macaroni & Cheese?

[goskins10]

The positive in franchising Kirk until they can settle in July is that it gives the FO some leverage with other players whose contracts need to be restructured.  They can end up renegotiating the contracts of several players to a more cap friendly amount and sell it as trying to ensure the QB they have come to believe in stays on the team.  Then, hopefully, they'll get Kirk's cap hit down to around $17 - $18 mil per year.  That would allow them to spread the rest of the money around to create more depth.  They should remain patient in negotiations because if they tag Kirk he will still go thru OTA's.  The negotiations can still take place only without all the pressure to rush into a bad deal for either party.

 

 

That has been my exact point. There really is no reason for either the team or Kirk to get this done any time soon. It's really just the fans and media who are impatient.

[Peregrine]

This reminds me of a Shakespeare play... Much ado about nothing.