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CBSsports.com: Redskins can bluff all they want, but Kirk Cousins holds all the cards

TK

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TK

TK

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http://mweb.cbssports.com/nfl/writer/pete-prisco/25491536/redskins-can-bluff-all-they-want-but-kirk-cousins-holds-all-the-cards

Jason La Canfora / CBS Sports NFL Insider

February 22, 2016 11:41 AM

Dan Snyder can hem and haw and dig in is heels and pretend that he has a tough decision to make, but in reality he has already been check mated. His back is against the wall and his quarterback has all of the leverage and his football people know it, and he'd be a fool to let Kirk Cousins go anywhere.

I dare say that Cousins is, in fact, going nowhere. Even for a franchise such as this one, notorious for its mismanagement and self-destruction, letting this emerging passer walk would be far too significant a potential faux pas.

The gamble isn't worth it, the stakes are too high, the risk is very profound and the Redskins are backed into a corner. No amount of whispering sweet nothings into the ears of certain media members or trying to create artificial leverage where no real leverage exists or playing word games will change that. Trying to shill the idea that RG3 could be an actual candidate to play quarterback for this team in 2016? Some in the media apparently are willing to perhaps buy it, but this is pure folly. It's beyond laughable to the point that neither team president and chief salesman Bruce Allen nor Snyder would never actually express that sentiment publicly themselves, and it does nothing to alter what the franchise is up against.

Cousins holds all the cards. His representatives know it. The true football people in the Redskins organization must understand it. Eventually, the dude who controls the budget -- Snyder -- had better grasp it, because the alternatives are scant and the past history with quarterbacks under this owner is grizzly and the best way for him to divide an organization that was finally starting to be unified by new general manager Scot McCloughan would be to undercut it all by mucking up this negotiation.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not going to sit here and tell you that Cousins is a stud and will win a Super Bowl in Washington and he is everything you could ask for in a quarterback. But he just might be the best passer this franchise has seen in decades and he is viewed by the football operations department as a potential top-15 quarterback. He projects at the low end to be at least an Alex Smith type and he is a guy you can win with and, as much as anything else, this team has no clear plan to find a decent alternative, let alone an upgrade.

He rallied the locker room and helped eradicate the drama and sagas and BS that have long crippled this franchise and he helped establish an identity for the club and -- never to be underestimated in the eyes of an owner like Snyder -- he provided a sellable entity at the quarterback spot who fans and players alike could rally around.

To be clear, Cousins has several things going for him in these contract negotiations.

For starters, the franchise tag is generally a strong weapon for teams to employ, but in this case, at roughly $20M, it works firmly in Cousins' favor. Franchising or transitioning Cousins is the only way to keep him off the market (using a transition on a quarterback is counter-intuitive as you risk losing the player for no compensation at all while saving perhaps a few million bucks a year), and with a finite amount of time to make this decision (by the end of the month) and so much uncertainty if they let him walk, this figure serves Cousins very well. Once he is tagged he begins negotiating off this figure, and everyone knows it. Tagging him only helps his cause.

Next, if Cousins is allowed to walk, that's perfectly fine with him as well. He'd love to stay but he is a big boy and it's just business. He was a pro as he waited to get to play and he always took the high road and produced when it mattered most in 2015, and for that he is clearly positioned as the best potential free agent quarterback available. Considering this draft class of quarterbacks isn't exactly blowing people away with its early returns, and the fact that there are a number of clubs in the market for quarterbacks at this very moment (including the Jets, who were interested in landing Cousins in trade a year ago, and Texans and Browns and Rams and Broncos and Eagles and 49ers), that puts him in good stead. All is takes is one team to offer him in the range of $15-$18M a season for Cousins to be not only set for life for generations to come, but surrounded by a team committed to making him its quarterback of the present and the future. And few teams have been more desperate for just that sort of player to emerge than the Redskins. So I am to believe they are going to let him walk away -- for maybe a comp pick at the end of the third round in 2017 -- over money? Given this owner, who has thrown bad money after bad players for more or less the totality of his existence in the NFL? OK.

So let's say Cousins does walk. Where are the Redskins going? Sam Bradford? Trading for Colin Kaepernick? RG3? (Come on, they just redshirted him and wouldn't let him anywhere close to the field in 2015, and they aren't paying him his $17M fifth-year option in 2016 and he wants absolutely, positively nothing to do with them. So, seriously, what are they doing? They won too many games last year -- with Cousins helping lead them to the postseason -- to have a viable quarterback fall to them in the draft. And there ain't no way McCloughan is offering up a ransom to move up for any of the quasi-prospects available in this draft (and reprise Snyder's RG3 mistake). The bottom line is above-average play at the quarterback position comes at a steep premium. It's a tax most teams know they must pay, and it's a part of doing business in the NFL.

So, to be clear: If Cousins gets tagged, he wins. And if he is allowed to walk, he wins.

And the Redskins have no clear path to anything close to victory at his position if he does in fact hit the market in a few weeks. And they have been unable to get it right at this position since, hell, Mark Rypien? And, as NFC East division winners, it would be bad for business and football if they took a major step back in 2016. And after botching the blockbuster trade for RG3 just a few years ago there ain't no way in hell they are going to be giving up a bounty to move up to draft a quarterback.

And, they had $17M earmarked for RG3 in 2016 that can be easily shifted over to Cousins. And, contrary to the drivel some are reporting, Cousins has never asked for $20M a season or anything close to it. And, whether it be at the end of this month or in the middle of July -- when the deadline to extend players on the franchise tag approaches -- I suspect this quarterback observes the value of a bird in hand and some legitimate guaranteed money and while he's anything but a pushover he'll be reasoned as well. Tagging him buys a lot of time for a deal to be worked out, while failing to tag him could end up being quite quick and finite.

At any other position, given the tight sample size of Cousins' best work, I could probably understand going in a different direction or getting cute with this decision. But for this franchise, at this position, at this particular time, they really have next to no choice, and out-thinking themselves, or getting cheap now, could come with the steepest of ramifications. It's a luxury Snyder cannot afford, and a mistake of this magnitude could haunt his franchise for quite some time and any deal could be structured in a manner in which the guaranteed money -- and actual risk -- is contained within a few years.

The risk of letting a winning quarterback march out of town not yet even in his prime, to perhaps even a team in the same division, is far greater. I know it. And Cousins knows it. And the Skins know it, too.

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TK

TK

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Good work here by JLC. He's right, Cousins' Camp never asked in upwards of 20 mil. They're looking to be in the 15-18 mil range with a long term deal. Skins also want a long term deal, however they came in a LOT lower then 15-18 to start negotiations. Which is how you play the game. Car salesmen know what I'm talking bout here. :)

Bottom line is this will get done. Just calm down, quit freaking out over it. It's a process.

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bowhunter

bowhunter

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Good work here by JLC. He's right, Cousins' Camp never asked in upwards of 20 mil. They're looking to be in the 15-18 mil range with a long term deal. Skins also want a long term deal, however they came in a LOT lower then 15-18 to start negotiations. Which is how you play the game. Car salesmen know what I'm talking bout here. :)

Bottom line is this will get done. Just calm down, quit freaking out over it. It's a process.

TK if your info is correct ($15-18 mil), then I don't see this even being an issue to get worked up over. I think most of us realize the cost of a good QB in this league is in that range. I am NOT questioning the validity of your info. If you said it then I believe it. I just don't get why this deal isn't already done if the numbers are in that range.

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Bonez3

Bonez3

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I disagree with the tag being one of the cards that favors Cousins. In fact, to me, it's the ace of spades and belongs to the Skins.

 

Yea, tough cap pill to swallow at 19 million. However, if he gets exposed as less than what he is being marketed for now, it would be worth approximately that except for 4 more years and we wouldn't be locked in to a guy who may be less talented than Tannehill. 

 

Frankly, franchising him to me is the BEST play. I really do want to see what he is capable of next year, ala Orakpo. With that said, yea, if I were Skins I would stick firm on that 13-14 mil number knowing who really holds the best card.

 

Side note- If Cousins camp wanted a short deal I think I would be willing to tack on some $. Frankly, I'm just not convinced in signing the guy to 6 years right now. A 2 or 3 year deal would limit damage. 

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TK

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Side note- If Cousins camp wanted a short deal

No side note. Both sides want a long term deal.

I just don't get why this deal isn't already done if the numbers are in that range.

Lots of teams, us included, don't do things like this until they absolutely have to. Combine is around the corner, most are getting focused on it so Scot can find him some more football players. ;)

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Bonez3

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No side note. Both sides want a long term deal.

Lots of teams, us included, don't do things like this until they absolutely have to. Combine is around the corner, most are getting focused on it so Scot can find him some more football players. ;)

Yea- that would make no sense for Cousins especially. IMO, he's all but guaranteed a pretty damn good short term deal in the 20 mil range as default negotiation position.

And if Cousins is happy with franchise tag, than win-win.

But something tells me it's a much bigger gamble for Cousins and he would be better to avoid it. Injuries, performance and pressure from the fact that he can only match or go down from that number/title (franchise QB) is alot for anybody.

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KokoMike

KokoMike

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Just about all the articles coming out now indicate that the Redskins or some other team is going to overpay Cousins. If that is true, then the Redskins should non-exclusive tag him. Cousins agent will go out in the market aggressively. If some other team wants to overpay him, take the two first round picks. Cleveland may be the team so says the media.

If no other team takes Cousins, the Redskins will hold the cards for a longer deal at a lower rate with some more guaranteed money. And, Cousins will want the deal.

If Cousins still chooses to play on the big money tag, the pressure will be on him big time. Every play. Every game. From the start. And teams will blitz him and hit him hard. I don't think for a minute that Cousins psyche will let him play on the tag. The pressure on him will be enormous. Huge. Too much.

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TK

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I see Jason has one eye on our team and the other eye on his Boston Red Sox er Baltimore Orioles

Your tweet is date stamped on 12/615. Which at that time Kelly was still safe in Philly. It wasn't until the end of the month when we went into the Linc, whipped their candy asses & clinched the Division. :)
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bentskin

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Just about all the articles coming out now indicate that the Redskins or some other team is going to overpay Cousins. If that is true, then the Redskins should non-exclusive tag him. Cousins agent will go out in the market aggressively. If some other team wants to overpay him, take the two first round picks. Cleveland may be the team so says the media.

If no other team takes Cousins, the Redskins will hold the cards for a longer deal at a lower rate with some more guaranteed money. And, Cousins will want the deal.

If Cousins still chooses to play on the big money tag, the pressure will be on him big time. Every play. Every game. From the start. And teams will blitz him and hit him hard. I don't think for a minute that Cousins psyche will let him play on the tag. The pressure on him will be enormous. Huge. Too much.

 

I agree. I have thought for awhile that the Redskins should use the non-exclusive tag and see what happens. The only downside is a team offers too much year 1 money and the Redskins cant match even a contract that they like overall. But, they do get 2 1st round draft picks. Also, a savvy team (like the Panthers years ago) could wait until after the draft to sign him and then the Redskins have to wait a until 2017 and 2018 to get their picks. I think the league should change this and put a deadline of 2 weeks prior to the draft for teams to make offers to prevent this.

I also noticed the negative tone in the article others mentioned. JLC would have had a fine article if he had just written it straight up. Apparently he can hold a grudge. Move on dude. That stuff will eat you up from the inside out.

Anyway, back to our original program. If Cousins is indeed asking in the 15-18M range and the skins are in the 12-14M I dont see the problem. They will get a deal done before the deadline (before or after tagging him, it doesnt really matter) and everyone will be pretty happy. And Captain Kirk's family will be set for generations.

 

HTTR

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Burgold

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i'm amazed anyone would be happy with two first rounders for kirk at this point

I think the idea is that we would match whatever deal another team comes up with. Not sure I really like that strategy myself, but it certainly allows Cousins and his agent to discover the qbs true NFL worth.

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Tsailand

Tsailand

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Good work here by JLC. He's right, Cousins' Camp never asked in upwards of 20 mil. They're looking to be in the 15-18 mil range with a long term deal.

 

That's it? Seriously? If this is true, we should sign right away.  Fair market rate for a good QB in 2020 is going to be more than $18M/year.

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Gibbit

Gibbit

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Just about all the articles coming out now indicate that the Redskins or some other team is going to overpay Cousins. If that is true, then the Redskins should non-exclusive tag him. Cousins agent will go out in the market aggressively. If some other team wants to overpay him, take the two first round picks. Cleveland may be the team so says the media.

If no other team takes Cousins, the Redskins will hold the cards for a longer deal at a lower rate with some more guaranteed money. And, Cousins will want the deal.

If Cousins still chooses to play on the big money tag, the pressure will be on him big time. Every play. Every game. From the start. And teams will blitz him and hit him hard. I don't think for a minute that Cousins psyche will let him play on the tag. The pressure on him will be enormous. Huge. Too much.

 

franchise tag would be too much pressure for him? 20 mil in the bank, but he would have more pressure than this past year which was make or break...

Mo money, mo free blitzers?

i'm amazed anyone would be happy with two first rounders for kirk at this point

 

same here. guess they enjoy the circle of hell weve been in

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Stefanskins

Stefanskins

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i'm amazed anyone would be happy with two first rounders for kirk at this point

I wouldn't take Kirk for two first rounders...Jesus, its been sooo long since we had a QB I had as much confidence in that he could be a perennial pro bowler...please...please..please..I'd give him a 7 year deal at 18 mill...35 guaranteed at the drop of a hat...is it a gamble?..sure...but not as much as some would lead you to believe...and I'd bet that there are a few teams that would do that for kirk and give us two first rounders...

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clskinsfan

clskinsfan

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You know the one card Cousins does not hold? 

 

Scot's draft card. 

 

I do think Scot will draft or target a QB this spring.  

 

Thats fine if he does. There is no chance that any QB in this draft will play half as well this year as Kirk did last year. Kirk still holds all the cards. I agree with JLC here as rare as that is.

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