CBSsports.com: Redskins can bluff all they want, but Kirk Cousins holds all the cards

[SkinsGuy]

I saw that too.

For those of you panicking, have other teams started negotiating with their players? I haven't seen one. Not ONE. Relax, it will get done. Zero percent chance Kirk is not a Redskin in 2016. Zero.

 

For those that are panicking, what the heck for? It's Febuary, for crying out loud.

 

As you said, this deal will get done. This is all part of the process. They may have to franchise him while they work on a deal, but I believe a deal will be signed. 

[pjfootballer]

For those that are panicking, what the heck for? It's Febuary, for crying out loud.

As you said, this deal will get done. This is all part of the process. They may have to franchise him while they work on a deal, but I believe a deal will be signed.

The panicking part wasn't for you. Just some general posts I've seen in here.

[Momma There Goes That Man]

ESPN Radio reported this morning that Cousins' agent and the Redskins have resumed contract negotiations.

Probably due to McC's comments yesterday that he and Cousins agent had talked at the combine.

Never took the "talks have broken off" news as seriously as the media wanted us to believe anyway

[Taylor 36]

IF he is not tagged - franchise or transitional w/ the option to match - by the start of free agency, then it is time to panic.  Otherwise, there is nothing to see here other than classic NFL contract negotiation tactics.  

 

Why anyone would get bent out of shape, especially from a JLC article for the love of Pete, is beyond me.  JLC, per usual, misrepresented facts for opinions, uninformed opinions I might add, and spent more time trying to troll the team and Snyder than trying to actually report any information.  How does he still have a job?

[oraphus]

I think there is a major misunderstanding on how Franchising is not really a good deal for Cousins and is in  fact much more of a win for Skins.

 

Lets use Alex Smith contract as the base sample:

 

Contract: 4 yr(s) / $68,000,000 Signing Bonus $18,000,000 Average Salary$17,000,000 Guaranteed:$45,000,000 (66% guaranteed on his contract)

 

Lets say that Cousins will sign a 4 year/ 56mil deal at 14mil/y avg sing Smith 66% guarantee as sample) 37mil guaranteed on a 56mil contract.

Average annual salary is 14mil. Once the contract is signed Skins are on the hook for 37mil, no matter what + whatever his base salary is that year (optimistically 5mil)

So on the first day of 2016 season skins are on the hook for 42mil. If Cousins gets hurt/ plays just ok/ flat out sucks and MC cuts his losses in 2017 they will still owe him 42mil plus the huge cap hit for cutting him over the next few years.

 

Or.. they franchise him and pay him 20mil in 2016 guaranteed. Now if he plays bad or gets hurt Skins are out 20mil and can move on with no cap hit. One year 20mil vs 42mil = WIN Skins.

Now if he plays well and is a known real deal.. you sign him to a bigger contract. At this point he earned an A.Smith level contract 68mil/4y w 45mil guaranteed.

 

CK plays well

So what's the cost difference over the next 5 years:

1. Contract now = 14m/year + year5 @20mil = 76mil over 5y  ( added 5th year option and 20mil as conservative cost)  2016 guarantee 42mil

2. Franchise now = 20mil + 68mil = 88mil over 5 y 2016 guarantee 20mil 

(88-76=12mil/5y) or 2.5mil/y over 5y higher salary if they franchise him.

 

With option 2, the cost for skins increases roughly 2.5mil/ y for the next 5 years. with an ever increasing cap, that's a insignificant cost for the 1 year wander risk they are avoiding.

 

For CK it's the opposite.. Unless he plays (really well next year, stays healthy himself, O weapons stay healthy, etc) he has much more to lose vs gain fighting over a couple mil a year difference.

[Califan007 The Constipated]

 

CK plays well

So what's the cost difference over the next 5 years:

1. Contract now = 14m/year + year5 @20mil = 76mil over 5y  ( added 5th year option and 20mil as conservative cost)  2016 guarantee 42mil

2. Franchise now = 20mil + 68mil = 88mil over 5 y 2016 guarantee 20mil  (88-76=12mil/5y) or 2.5mil/y

 

I'm trying to figure out your numbers here lol...Your two scenarios above are if Cousins plays well again in 2016, right?

 

For #1, you have Cousins getting $14 mil a year for 4 years, and then $20 mil for the 5th year, which means he gets a 5-year contract.

 

For #2, you have Cousins getting $20 mil for the 1st year (franchise tag), and then $17 mil a year for 4 years instead of a 5 year contract like in scenario #1?

 

must you always name drop?...lol

 

You know I didn't write that, right? lol...

[oraphus]

I'm trying to figure out your numbers here lol...Your two scenarios above are if Cousins plays well again in 2016, right?

 

For #1, you have Cousins getting $14 mil a year for 4 years, and then $20 mil for the 5th year, which means he gets a 5-year contract.

 

For #2, you have Cousins getting $20 mil for the 1st year (franchise tag), and then $17 mil a year for 4 years instead of a 5 year contract like in scenario #1?

 

You know I didn't write that, right? lol...

 

Right..

In option 1 - he still has a 4 year contract in both cases.. I added a 5th year in option 1 so I could make an apples to apples comparison. My assumption is that whatever deal he signs after the initial 4 year contract is up (2020+) will pay him roughly in the 20m/y range.. so I added the 20m as the 1st year of that follow up contract.. not sure if I am explaining it well make sense?

In option 2 -- its a francise tag in 2016 + a 4y contract after that = so effectively 5y of CK

[Wildbunny]

I think there is a major misunderstanding on how Franchising is not really a good deal for Cousins and is in  fact much more of a win for Skins.

 

 

That's a short sighted answer to the situation. The best option for the team is sign Kirk to a not so huge contract and have him play way over it. Taking us to the playoffs once or twice, SB maybe? That's the best option.

 

Tagging him with no more negotiations is showing him disrespect. Something you don't really want. 

Regarding the injury concern, Kirk doesn't have an injury history. He's pretty resilient and tough, so that's not something you can hold against him. Injuries are taken into account in contract negotiations if players have some history (maybe like Scherff have, I wouldn't be surprised if there's some way out of contract because of it). But in Kirk's situation, it's pointless. The best move for the team is to have some way out of contract between year 2 and 3 most notably, because right now, I believe we'll ride Kirk for both 2016 and 2017. If he fizzles in 16, we'll get a QB in 17 draft and groom him for a year or two.

 

So no, Tagging him and stay put is not a smart move for us. That's a short sighted move that will postpone the decision in a year.

You can tag him this year, have him have an up and down year (like it will most likely happen, good games, great games and a few bad ones), then figures about tagging him again, rinse and repeat... That's not how you do business.

Sign him a good contract, both for the team and the player, trust him, let the coaches do their ****ing job, let Kirk play through the contract and see what happens next. If Kirk flames out in 2016, we're screwed anyway because we're not gonna draft his replacement this year, maybe a future 3rd string QB that will require 2/3 years of grooming.

So, you might as well go long term, and believe in the guy.

 

Because hell... You like that.

[Califan007 The Constipated]

Right..

he still has a 4 year contract in both cases.. I added a 5th year in option 1 so I could make an apples to apples comparison. My assumption is that whatever deal he signs after the initial 4 year contract is up (2020+) will pay him roughly in the 20m/y range.. so I added the 20m as the 1st year of that follow up contract.. not sure if I am explaing well make sense?

 

Ah, ok I think I get it now lol...

 

You said you added on a "5th year option" for $20 mil, but to me that means it's an additional year to an existing contract, not the first year of a new contract after the existing one expires.

 

In either scenario, I don't see the Redskins only going with a 4 year deal--and I really don't see that happening if the Skins franchise him and he keeps playing as well in 2016 as he did in 2015. I could see a 5-6 year deal easily in that scenario, actually. Wouldn't blame the Skins, either...but that would significantly raise his guaranteed salary for scenario #2.

[Wildbunny]

Probably due to McC's comments yesterday that he and Cousins agent had talked at the combine.

Never took the "talks have broken off" news as seriously as the media wanted us to believe anyway

 

Must have been something along the lines of:

- Hey McC! How you doin' buddy?

- Doin' great McC! How goes the wife and kids?

- Awesome! So you've seen guys you like?

- Yeah quite a few! Find a few also?

- Some are interesting to me yes.

- So, you're still ok for the meeting next week?

- Yeah, don't forget the pizzas like last time man!

- Sure. Double pepperonni and cheese?

- Nah Bacon! 

- Got it! Gotta go, need to watch an interview or two here.

 

That must be it.

 

Talks are never broken.

[oraphus]

That's a short sighted answer to the situation. The best option for the team is sign Kirk to a not so huge contract and have him play way over it. Taking us to the playoffs once or twice, SB maybe? That's the best option.

 

Tagging him with no more negotiations is showing him disrespect. Something you don't really want. 

 

So no, Tagging him and stay put is not a smart move for us. That's a short sighted move that will postpone the decision in a year.

You can tag him this year, have him have an up and down year (like it will most likely happen, good games, great games and a few bad ones), then figures about tagging him again, rinse and repeat... That's not how you do business.

Sign him a good contract, both for the team and the player, trust him, let the coaches do their ****ing job, let Kirk play through the contract and see what happens next. If Kirk flames out in 2016, we're screwed anyway because we're not gonna draft his replacement this year, maybe a future 3rd string QB that will require 2/3 years of grooming.

So, you might as well go long term, and believe in the guy.

 

Because hell... You like that.

 

Amicable contract between both parties is the best solution.. agreed. But this is business.. it might not be in the cards in this situation.

My point is to protect the organization and for risk aversion purposes Skins would be in much better shape with a franchise tag if they are not 100% sold on CK. You'll set the organization much further back with a bad contract for a player that we they realize is not the franchise qb they thought.

As far as hurt feelings.. its business, I could just as easily make an argument that if he outplays his contract in 2 years he might feel slighted and will want to redo his contract to reflect his true worth (ala Lynch)

 

 

In either scenario, I don't see the Redskins only going with a 4 year deal--and I really don't see that happening if the Skins franchise him and he keeps playing as well in 2016 as he did in 2015. I could see a 5-6 year deal easily in that scenario, actually. Wouldn't blame the Skins, either...but that would significantly raise his guaranteed salary for scenario #2.

 

That would be a win/ win - that way they could spread his salary over more years for longer, knowing that they have a franchise QB

[Califan007 The Constipated]

Must have been something along the lines of:

- Hey McC! How you doin' buddy?

- Doin' great McC! How goes the wife and kids?

- Awesome! So you've seen guys you like?

- Yeah quite a few! Find a few also?

- Some are interesting to me yes.

- So, you're still ok for the meeting next week?

- Yeah, don't forget the pizzas like last time man!

- Sure. Double pepperonni and cheese?

- Nah Bacon! 

- Got it! Gotta go, need to watch an interview or two here.

 

That must be it.

 

Talks are never broken.

 

Was Scot M talking to himself? lol...if so, we're in trouble.

[TheGreatBuzz]

 

 

TK and JLC (whom I'm not a big fan of) are both right. 

I get not being a big fan of JLC but why don't you like TK?  Seems like an alright guy to me.

[illone]

No way the Skins lose him over money, and no way Kirk wants to start over with a new offense next season.

 

Kirk will be in the B&G and he will earn top 10-15 QB money.

[Wildbunny]

Amicable contract between both parties is the best solution.. agreed. But this is business.. it might not be in the cards in this situation.

My point is to protect the organization and for risk aversion purposes Skins would be in much better shape with a franchise tag if they are not 100% sold on CK. You'll set the organization much further back with a bad contract for a player that we they realize is not the franchise qb they thought.

As far as hurt feelings.. its business, I could just as easily make an argument that if he outplays his contract in 2 years he might feel slighted and will want to redo his contract to reflect his true worth (ala Lynch)

 

That's a business. I agree here. But you're not gonna make it successful by being cautious all the time. You're not gonna make money out of it. At some point, you've got to take some risks, huge ones even, then it can start to pay off. 

If Kirk fizzles next year, it doesn't really matter if it's long term or Tag... We'll be in bad shape anyway. And if he lives up to the contract, or even above, we'll hold the cards for any rework of the contract.

 

Now if you take a look at Kirk's history, there's more good than bad (statistic wise that is). No injuries (once in 4 years I believe, and a small one). There's more things that should tell you to take chances and go for it.

 

Was Scot M talking to himself? lol...if so, we're in trouble.

 

Kirk's agent is McCartney. I'll let you decide who's who.

[ThomasRoane]

I get not being a big fan of JLC but why don't you like TK?  Seems like an alright guy to me.

 

LOL I'm sure TK knows my comment was only for JLC.  (JLC has a history of talking out of his rear end.)  I've never had any beef with TK or any of the mods.  They do an outstanding job and any time I see a thread started by him or Jumbo it's instant click bait for me. 

 

I'm not in panic mode but I don't think letting Kirk hit the F/A market is a good idea without any compensation after a 4 year investment.  What is the goal of every NFL team?  It's winning the Super Bowl right?  Most teams have about a 3 year window for winning the Super Bowl.  The Pats are the best at staying around the top but I'm sure Tom Brady has to be a little pissed that Belichick didn't open up the wallet for what is probably his last couple of years.

 

If I'm John Elway and Gary Kubiak I'd be looking at my defense and the pieces on offense (Ryan Clady their stud LT comes back off injury this year) and I'd be saying that they could win another Super Bowl or 2 with Kirk there. (Three year window would close after that) Kirk is a QB who has played in Shanahan's system; which Kubiak models his scheme after.  Even Jay Gruden's system is a friendly West Coast System. Denver could cut ties with Peyton and Brock and make Kirk and his agent an offer that the Redskins either couldn't or wouldn't match. 

 

Let's say that the total difference in value between Denver's offer and the Redskin's is $10 million (or more) in guaranteed money.  If Kirk was my son I'd tell him to take that deal.  Dan Snyder and many of the fans treated Kirk like dog crap for the last couple of years.  Hell, even as early as December people on this very MB were finding ways to tarnish what ended up being a franchise record setting year.  He went out last year without reps as the #1 until preseason, (he'd have all the OTA, Training camp, and preseason reps with Denver) under constant pressure early on of being benched, then played with the pressure of knowing his earning power was dictated by his play, and with not much help from a run game or defense and led the team to a division title.  Then he was insulted by a 9 million dollar contract offer.  (DJax and Pierre Garcon make that much.  I don't think either of them would say that they're just as important as the QB position after dealing with the frustration they went thru in 2014 and then experiencing the success in 2015).

 

If I'm Kirk and Denver offers an even slightly better deal I'm on my way to Colorado.  Betting on myself that if I win the Super Bowl with them I'll make bank both from Denver or another team; not to mention money from commercial endorsements.  Kirk is a clean cut kid who can clean up in that department and Denver would love him.  Kirk and his wife don't owe DC a damn thing to be honest.  If I were him I'd take the money and run. His agent can buy Scot dinner some day if he wants but I'd be on my way to a place where "I feel like I'm wanted."

 

I understand what Scot is trying to accomplish.  There are a lot of needs on the team and he's trying to recreate a Seattle situation where they had Russell Wilson on a rookie contract and were able to build a stronger team.  And it worked because Russell Wilson was dynamic enough to make just enough plays to get them over the top.  Flacco did the same thing for Baltimore with his rookie contract.  Cam is a damn good QB but he could get his team over the top. 

 

Scot is good at what he does but QB is not an exact science.  They are very hard to get.  I'm still not impressed with his first crack at a franchise QB in Alex Smith.  IMO Kirk is better than Smith if both have to drop back and complete a 3rd and long. The NFL is a QB driven league and colleges don't care about being a farm team.  They are putting athletes at QB and running spread, read option, and Read-Pass-Options.  Simple, one read offenses.  They don't do a good job of creating NFL QB's.  The lack of success in the draft bears that out.  (We know that too well)   If Scot and Bruce let Kirk get away (for nothing but a compensatory 4th round pick in 2017) then they damn well better have a ringer in the draft or somewhere else that can produce at or above the level Kirk played at.  You can't hide from the fans and the media in DC. 

[oraphus]

That's a business. I agree here. But you're not gonna make it successful by being cautious all the time. You're not gonna make money out of it. At some point, you've got to take some risks, huge ones even, then it can start to pay off. 

If Kirk fizzles next year, it doesn't really matter if it's long term or Tag... We'll be in bad shape anyway. And if he lives up to the contract, or even above, we'll hold the cards for any rework of the contract.

 

Now if you take a look at Kirk's history, there's more good than bad (statistic wise that is). No injuries (once in 4 years I believe, and a small one). There's more things that should tell you to take chances and go for it.

 

 

I guess we're just not on the same page... it seems like you want to sign him to a long contract just for the sake of it.

 either way Skins are taking a risk, but there is a large difference between 20mil/1y risk and 42mil/ 1y + cap hits risk, and it does matter since just like we found CK in the 4th, they could draft a back up this year that can end up starting.

 

Its not so black and white where he either 'kicks ass' or 'sucks' this year. Its more likely that he plays just OK.. average starting QB. This would be a loos for his camp... since right now his agent is saying "Look, CK played really well the last 6weeks. He is only going to get better" even though his sample size is small. Team is saying.. "First half of the season he was below average, yes he improved, but we are not sure which CK is the norm, chances are he is somewhere in between"

 

If CK plays at just and avg level in 2016, in 2017 Skins will tell his agent "see... he is just an average QB that overachieved in 2016 and we will pay him accordingly". (less then what he feels he is worth now). Skins can find another avg QB with similar performance level for much less money.

 

CK will be fine either way... no matter what, he is guaranteed to make at least 20mil in one year, even if everyone realizes that he is nothing more then a backup after this year. Most backups in the nfl make between 1-3mil/y so a 20mil 1y paycheck is a very nice pay day.

I like CK and pray he does well and is the franchise QB answer we've been seeking, but I am redskins fan first and want what's best for the team long term... and that is to be protected in case he is not the answer.

[TheDawnofaNewEra]

LOL I'm sure TK knows my comment was only for JLC.  (JLC has a history of talking out of his rear end.)  I've never had any beef with TK or any of the mods.  They do an outstanding job and any time I see a thread started by him or Jumbo it's instant click bait for me. 

 

I'm not in panic mode but I don't think letting Kirk hit the F/A market is a good idea without any compensation after a 4 year investment.  What is the goal of every NFL team?  It's winning the Super Bowl right?  Most teams have about a 3 year window for winning the Super Bowl.  The Pats are the best at staying around the top but I'm sure Tom Brady has to be a little pissed that Belichick didn't open up the wallet for what is probably his last couple of years.

 

If I'm John Elway and Gary Kubiak I'd be looking at my defense and the pieces on offense (Ryan Clady their stud LT comes back off injury this year) and I'd be saying that they could win another Super Bowl or 2 with Kirk there. (Three year window would close after that) Kirk is a QB who has played in Shanahan's system; which Kubiak models his scheme after.  Even Jay Gruden's system is a friendly West Coast System. Denver could cut ties with Peyton and Brock and make Kirk and his agent an offer that the Redskins either couldn't or wouldn't match. 

 

Let's say that the total difference in value between Denver's offer and the Redskin's is $10 million (or more) in guaranteed money.  If Kirk was my son I'd tell him to take that deal.  Dan Snyder and many of the fans treated Kirk like dog crap for the last couple of years.  Hell, even as early as December people on this very MB were finding ways to tarnish what ended up being a franchise record setting year.  He went out last year without reps as the #1 until preseason, (he'd have all the OTA, Training camp, and preseason reps with Denver) under constant pressure early on of being benched, then played with the pressure of knowing his earning power was dictated by his play, and with not much help from a run game or defense and led the team to a division title.  Then he was insulted by a 9 million dollar contract offer.  (DJax and Pierre Garcon make that much.  I don't think either of them would say that they're just as important as the QB position after dealing with the frustration they went thru in 2014 and then experiencing the success in 2015).

 

If I'm Kirk and Denver offers an even slightly better deal I'm on my way to Colorado.  Betting on myself that if I win the Super Bowl with them I'll make bank both from Denver or another team; not to mention money from commercial endorsements.  Kirk is a clean cut kid who can clean up in that department and Denver would love him.  Kirk and his wife don't owe DC a damn thing to be honest.  If I were him I'd take the money and run. His agent can buy Scot dinner some day if he wants but I'd be on my way to a place where "I feel like I'm wanted."

 

I understand what Scot is trying to accomplish.  There are a lot of needs on the team and he's trying to recreate a Seattle situation where they had Russell Wilson on a rookie contract and were able to build a stronger team.  And it worked because Russell Wilson was dynamic enough to make just enough plays to get them over the top.  Flacco did the same thing for Baltimore with his rookie contract.  Cam is a damn good QB but he could get his team over the top. 

 

Scot is good at what he does but QB is not an exact science.  They are very hard to get.  I'm still not impressed with his first crack at a franchise QB in Alex Smith.  IMO Kirk is better than Smith if both have to drop back and complete a 3rd and long. The NFL is a QB driven league and colleges don't care about being a farm team.  They are putting athletes at QB and running spread, read option, and Read-Pass-Options.  Simple, one read offenses.  They don't do a good job of creating NFL QB's.  The lack of success in the draft bears that out.  (We know that too well)   If Scot and Bruce let Kirk get away (for nothing but a compensatory 4th round pick in 2017) then they damn well better have a ringer in the draft or somewhere else that can produce at or above the level Kirk played at.  You can't hide from the fans and the media in DC. 

Good write-up of playing Devil's Advocate but you know damn well none of this will happen lol.

[Wildbunny]

Then Thomas, we might as well order a trade with the Broncos. They already have much on their plate to deal so they can work a deal for Kirk with Jackson, Trevathan, Von Miller and Osweiler...

 

But why not Kirk for Osweiler with a few bonuses here and there... Crazyest things have happened in the NFL. 

 

I guess we're just not on the same page... it seems like you want to sign him to a long contract just for the sake of it.

 

I believe that long term is the best solution for both right now. Will it turn out to be the best in 3/4 years? Dunno. But player is looking for it, team is looking for it... So you have to go for it.

 

Still, I'm a firm believer of the risk/reward thing. Going Tag is being cautious and might infuriates the player. 

I know it's a business, but I always thinks that psychological stuff is way too often left behind.

 

Thomas said Kirk and Wife owes nothing to DC. Maybe. Who knows... But if they had kids, changing your kid of school is sometimes to take into account. Well, at least for me I know, as I'm looking for another work, that my wife will say me hello if that implies too many changes (like moving region, changing school for the kids, losing their friends, blah, blah, blah...). I'm sure every one with a family around here knows what I'm talking about... 

Good write-up of playing Devil's Advocate but you know damn well none of this will happen lol.

 

Watch it, you're not supposed to quote large blocks of text.

[ThomasRoane]

Good write-up of playing Devil's Advocate but you know damn well none of this will happen lol.

 

LOL how long have you been a Redskin's fan?

[ThomasRoane]

But why not Kirk for Osweiler with a few bonuses here and there... Crazyest things have happened in the NFL. 

 

Thomas said Kirk and Wife owes nothing to DC. Maybe. Who knows...

 

You mean the same Osweiler who lost his job to an old guy who couldn't throw the ball 20 yards down the field without taking a hitch step?  (I'm not buying the 'injury' line.  Kubiak wanted Peyton back in there and that scares me off Brock).  Have you watched Brock play?  We don't need another QB who can't read a defense and get the ball out of his hands quick enough.  Been there, done that. 

 

As for Kirk's wife you do realize that for two years now she's had to listen to the fans chanting "RG3! RG3! RG3!" at the games and help her husband deal with all the attacks from the media right?  She had to comfort Kirk when he'd read or hear some of the vile crap being spewed about him (mostly because he wasn't the other guy).  He clearly knew about it and made that plain after the Tampa game with his "You like that!" episode. 

 

If Scot and Bruce get too cute and Kirk walks away for practically nothing (a compensatory 4th rounder) then the honeymoon for our savior GM will be over. 

[btfoom]

You mean the same Osweiler who lost his job to an old guy who couldn't throw the ball 20 yards down the field without taking a hitch step?  (I'm not buying the 'injury' line.  Kubiak wanted Peyton back in there and that scares me off Brock).  Have you watched Brock play?  We don't need another QB who can't read a defense and get the ball out of his hands quick enough.  Been there, done that. 

 

As for Kirk's wife you do realize that for two years now she's had to listen to the fans chanting "RG3! RG3! RG3!" at the games and help her husband deal with all the attacks from the media right?  She had to comfort Kirk when he'd read or hear some of the vile crap being spewed about him (mostly because he wasn't the other guy).  He clearly knew about it and made that plain after the Tampa game with his "You like that!" episode. 

 

If Scot and Bruce get too cute and Kirk walks away for practically nothing (a compensatory 4th rounder) then the honeymoon for our savior GM will be over. 

 

Was with you until this last sentence.  They haven't done or said anything that would show that Kirk is walking away.  Both sides have said he will be here next year, the details about money are what is being worked.

[ThomasRoane]

Was with you until this last sentence.  They haven't done or said anything that would show that Kirk is walking away.  Both sides have said he will be here next year, the details about money are what is being worked.

 

I'm going by the Chris Russel report that TK posted.  Which inferred that the Redskins may very well let Kirk go and test his worth on the market (without any tags).  Now, if it's the Browns vs the Redskins then obviously Kirk would go with the Redskins.  But if the Broncos decide that they have a two - three year window left (which is usually the average before teams start falling apart) to get some more Lombardi's and they throw significantly more guaranteed money at Kirk then he would be a fool not to take that.  He's a smart guy and I don't think he'd pass that up.  Would you?

[ncr2h]

You don't win super bowls by paying fair market value for your QB. Using the franchise tag will result in either: (1) Kirk playing average or poorly, which saves us from having to pay him in 2017 (he would be cut in 2018 if we sign him to the deal he wants now but underperforms), or (2) Kirk being an elite QB, and us paying him top tier money. Either scenario effectively gives us a 0% chance of winning the super bowl unless we can assemble a top 5 defense by 2017.

Talent evaluation isn't about making a guy prove exactly what he's worth and paying him accordingly after the fact. It's about identifying guys who are going to be stars and snatching them up before they hit their peak. We have a chance right now to potentially get the next Aaron Rodgers at a severe discount to his future skill level. If we pull the trigger and are right, we will effectively be opening up a super bowl window for the next 4 years. If we are wrong, we can cut our losses after 2017 and have hopefully stocked the rest of the team with solid players via the draft, so that the next QB can step in and succeed right away.

In a salary cap league, the team that wins is often the team that most underpays it's players. We lose a major advantage by waiting for Kirk to "reveal himself", because if he's a very good QB we will have to pay him accordingly.

[oraphus]

Paying CK what he wants (18-20mil/ year) is not good value for an unproven QB and is far from a discount. You're basically paying him like an elite QB based on a half year of production and potential. If we can get him for 14mil per year.. that would be great, but he wont play for that.

 

I also don't think there is a any direct correlation between underpaying QBs and winning superbowls.