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10 point spread for Dallass game. Should I take it?


Stefanskins

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Our best hope is that the Cowboys defense returns to reality this week. Their offense is going to put up 28-30 points. Their offense is extremely good - as was expected before the season. It's their defense has been playing far above expectations. I don't think their defense can keep it up all year, eventually their talent will catch up to them. But I don't think we are the team to expose them.

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So, the questions you have to ask yourself:

 

1. Are the 'Skins ST going to have a WTF moment again and give up points?

2. Can the 'Skins offense with Colt McCoy (I'm assuming Colt since Griffin hasn't practiced yet going to be able to score 17-24 points on MNF?

 

I really don't know the answer.  The answer SHOULD BE yes. 

Oh, I think the answer to one of those questions might be "Yes."

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According to ESPN Colt McCoy is starting. Cowboys may win this game by 3+ Touchdowns. I would take the Cowboys and tease the heck out of the game

Update: Per Keim on live Sports Center McCoy will start if RG III is ruled out

Tease = sucker bet

According to ESPN Colt McCoy is starting. Cowboys may win this game by 3+ Touchdowns. I would take the Cowboys and tease the heck out of the game

Update: Per Keim on live Sports Center McCoy will start if RG III is ruled out

Even with McCoy 10 is a lot. I would take the Skins.

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I just crunched a few numbers.

 

Since 2010, average point differential between DAL & WAS = 6.1 pts

 

Total of 8 games:

    1) 0-3 pts: 4 games

    2) 4-9 pts: 2 games

    3) 10+ pts: 2 games

 

On the road, it's roughly a 6.8 point average spread.

 

Our W/L record during this span: 3-5.

 

Primetime games since 1999:

    1) Home: 1-14 (mother of christ)

    2) Away: 3-3.

 

I'd probably go with Skins (+10), even though conventional wisdom says we'll get blown out.

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I just crunched a few numbers.

 

Since 2010, average point differential between DAL & WAS = 6.1 pts

 

Total of 8 games:

    1) 0-3 pts: 4 games

    2) 4-9 pts: 2 games

    3) 10+ pts: 2 games

 

On the road, it's roughly a 6.8 point average spread.

 

Our W/L record during this span: 3-5.

 

Primetime games since 1999:

    1) Home: 1-14 (mother of christ)

    2) Away: 3-3.

 

I'd probably go with Skins (+10), even though conventional wisdom says we'll get blown out.

 

do you hear that, do you hear that sound ..? that's the sound of numbers being crunched! good stuff. 

 

my only concern is that the cowboys of 2014 seem a lot better than the teams of 2010-2013. 

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I haven't bet at all this season, but I did fairly well the last two seasons.  Everyone has their method of handicapping, depends on what you're comfortable with.

 

I think people out think themselves a lot, trying to figure out which way Vegas wants you to bet.  Vegas wants equal money on both sides.

 

I would take the points in this game for 3 reasons.  Our run defense, I think Haslett has been fairly good in the past at getting Romo to cough it up, and I think Griffin will start.  Good luck. :)

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I agree with everyone that says its better to take the underdog with a 10+ spread.  It's human nature to want to pick the winner, and since Vegas is all about balancing the money bet between winner and loser, underdogs have a slight advantage with a big spread.

 

However, whenever I do bet in Vegas, I always try to talk myself out of it before I put my money down.  Remember, it doesn't matter if the Cowboys can cover the spread, the question is will they cover the spread.  There are a couple factors that would lead me to believe that they will.

 

I think the Cowboys probably have been running a little too much early in the last few games because of the Jim Brown record.  I think they open up a little this week.  A lot has been said that their success is largely due to the running game, which is undeniable, but when they have needed to pass (and when the opposing team knows they will be passing), they have passed exceptionally well (54% third down success rate).  They also have been extremely willing to look off Dez and Witten and throw to the role players - especially Williams and Escobar.  I don't like any of the receiving matchups this week.  Any move that Washington makes can be easily countered by Dallas.  Which means it can be an early blowout.

 

I also think that with some tougher games coming up, Dallas sees this as one they need to have in their pocket.  I don't think they'll take any chances on a fourth quarter comeback - and by that I mean they won't take the foot off of the gas offensively.  With the bye week coming up, I don't think they are looking towards future games either.

 

Of course, the best advice for betting NFL games is bet what your comfortable losing.  The only time I've lost big in Vegas is when I bet big - duh!. I rolled over my winnings on a Miami bowl game to the sure-thing Fla. St. over Oklahoma national championship bet.  Even the guy taking bets was laughing about what a sucker bet Oklahoma was.  I was day dreaming about how I would spend my money right up until I turned on the TV and found out Laverneus Coles had been suspended.

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I dunno....

 

As the blind homer of the board, I would like to point out two things for the record:

 

1) Funny things happen when we play The Hated Rival

 

2) There's a couple'a ballgames every year that EVERYONE has pegged as going one way--and then the longshot comes through.

 

It's about damn time we get lucky. 

 

I say take the points & have a party.  The Skins just might do it.

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