2015 FA Thread - OP Updated - Signings: Paea, Knighton, Culliver, Johnson, McCoy, Hill, Goldson

[goskins10]

I think we way overestimate other teams kicking game because, well, we dont watch their games.  Look around the league, and you will see maybe 5-10 teams that actually have a really good kicker.  Out of those maybe 4-5 is both a great FG kicker and great with kickoffs.  While kickoff length would be great, I personally would value FGs as more important, because they directly produce points, whereas 3 extra yards shouldnt be the main issue.

 

Interesting fact, 21 kickers have been drafted in the last 10 years, and none of them has a better FG% than Forbath, including Gostkowski.

 

Overestimate others kicking game? 23 other teams had better KOs than us, a slight improvement over the 26 teams that were better last year.

 

And please, I already said he was a good FG kicker, one of the better ones in the league. Please stop saying the same thing and basically ignoring KOs. 3 yards may not seem like much, that's an average. Over the course of the season it's a pretty big deal.

 

Field position has been a problem for both our Off and Def. It's put extra pressure on both the OFF and DEF. You can't underestimate that value. And Kai has a pretty big hand one one end of that.

[skinny21]

I didn't have the feeling that Kai was poor at longer distances, anyone have the #s?

[Burgold]

Wait. So does that mean our punter kicked 9 TBs in 3 games? That averages to 48 over the season, no?

That seems like a nice option - though I have no idea if that did/would affect his punting (tiring his leg out).

BTW, didn't I read somewhere that Kai didn't kickoff in College and has been learning the skill? I think he equated it to hitting a golf ball, which ain't easy to do consistently. I'd say there is hope for some growth there, but what do I know.

I was thinking about this all season. Tress did very well on kick offs. Once Kai started struggling again why did we stand pat. There's no rule that says the field goal kicker has to kick off. Use the punter. That way, you get the best of all worlds. Good kickoffs and accurate field goals. The idea that 2-5 extra kicks a game would wear out Way's leg seems absurd.

[goskins10]

I didn't have the feeling that Kai was poor at longer distances, anyone have the #s?

 

2-4 lifetime   1-1, 1-2, and 0-1 respectively. 

[carex]

2-4 lifetime   1-1, 1-2, and 0-1 respectively. 

 

 plus I think he made one or two that were called back by penalties or timeouts

[goskins10]

 plus I think he made one or two that were called back by penalties or timeouts

 

 

Possibly, But other kickers had had them called back also, and at a higher rate since they try so many more.

 

For last year, of those kickers who tried 20 or more FG, they averaged 5 attempts of 50+yds a season. Kai is at 4 for 3 years! What do you think the chances are that with an average of 11 more tries over the last 3 yrs, that those kickers had some called back also. We are not the only ones called for penalties.

 

No matter how you cut this, Kai is a great FG kicker from the 39 in. He is almost none existent outside that range and is about 24th in KOs over his career. If he can increase his KOs to 50% TBs, I would be ecstatic and glad we have him. I just don't see that changing that much.

[DC9]

Wait. So does that mean our punter kicked 9 TBs in 3 games? That averages to 48 over the season, no?

That seems like a nice option - though I have no idea if that did/would affect his punting (tiring his leg out).

BTW, didn't I read somewhere that Kai didn't kickoff in College and has been learning the skill? I think he equated it to hitting a golf ball, which ain't easy to do consistently. I'd say there is hope for some growth there, but what do I know.

 

yeah, but there were some weird tbs last year.  Like line drives where we lucked out, etc.  Don't really remember if that was Kai, the punter, or both.

 

But a lot of punters in the league can do both.  McAffee is one that I've always wanted cause he's pretty good at both.

[Taylor703]

So we should get rid of the most accurate kicker we've had in recent history because our special teams sucks so bad that they can't stop anyone if there isn't a touchback?

[skinsfan212689]

Possibly, But other kickers had had them called back also, and at a higher rate since they try so many more.

 

For last year, of those kickers who tried 20 or more FG, they averaged 5 attempts of 50+yds a season. Kai is at 4 for 3 years! What do you think the chances are that with an average of 11 more tries over the last 3 yrs, that those kickers had some called back also. We are not the only ones called for penalties.

 

No matter how you cut this, Kai is a great FG kicker from the 49 in. He is almost none existent outside that range and is about 24th in KOs over his career. If he can increase his KOs to 50% TBs, I would be ecstatic and glad we have him. I just don't see that changing that much.

I 100% agree. There is no way around it and we don't even give him a chance to kick 50+ most of the time because coaches not there's next to no chance he'll make it.

 

I'm sure he's a nice guy or whatever but if he's supposedly on of the 32 best kickers in the world then I just don't see it.

[skinny21]

2-4 lifetime 1-1, 1-2, and 0-1 respectively.

Thanks!

I 100% agree. There is no way around it and we don't even give him a chance to kick 50+ most of the time because coaches not there's next to no chance he'll make it.

I'm sure he's a nice guy or whatever but if he's supposedly on of the 32 best kickers in the world then I just don't see it.

"Next to no chance" = 50%? Huh... learn something new everyday

[skinsfan212689]

"Next to no chance" = 50%? Huh... learn something new everyday

50% of 4 kicks in 3 years,  yeah pretty close to nothing to me. Hey man it's just my opinion. We expect our qbs to be able to make all the throws, our rbs to hit the right holes, our oline to hold a block on every play. Why cant we expect the kicker to do that one job and kick... Kick it through the end zone often and make more 1 50+ yard FG a year.  

[goskins10]

"Next to no chance" = 50%? Huh... learn something new everyday

 

It's not the 50% that's the problem. It's the 4 tries in 3 yrs when the rest of the league has 15 tries in the same time span. Our coaches have no confidence in Kai past 50 yds. If he was 50% with say 7 of 14, then that would be totally different. 50% from 50+ is a good ratio, but not when it's about 25% of the average opportunities.

[skinny21]

Fair enough. The lack of attempts does make you wonder if the coaches lack confidence in him (though it's not necessarily the case). OTOH, if the coaches have no faith based on practices/warm-ups, and yet he is 50% in games, you'd think they would start to give him more opportunities. Who knows.

Wouldn't mind trying to find a more well-rounded kicker, just want to make sure it's not simply a case of "the grass is always greener"... particularly given the things he does have going for him - 1) kickers frequently get better with age, 2) he's fairly clutch, 3) he's young, 4) he didn't have much experience with kickoffs prior to joing the Redskins, 5) kickoffs supposedly aren't easy to pick up quickly and 6) it seems like Way might be a viable option for kickoffs (if Forbath continues to struggle).

Sorry for seemingly heavy defense of Forbath, I don't actually care much either way - just willing to recognize that he could well improve (or not).

[carex]

poor field position and being behind to the point where three points wouldn't matter limits his oppurtunities

[Burgold]

Fair enough. The lack of attempts does make you wonder if the coaches lack confidence in him

Misread this at first and thought you were talking about why Way was pulled off kickoff duty and never got a second shot despite Kai's struggles. Then, I was thinking about how at other positions this staff refused to experiment.  Why Chester was never subbed. The argument kept going back to... well, Long must not be ready, but all we heard all Preseason was how good and what a surprise the kid was.

 

At some positions, the Redskins weren't hesitant to make changes, but I have to wonder about the wisdom of not giving Tress Way more of a chance to kickoff after he had greater success or the rationale not to give Grant a go for Roberts after the season was lost and Roberts kept dropping passes.  Chester's poor play should have led to a benching especially in those last 5 games. I mean what did we have to lose? Maybe we'd have averaged 8 sacks a game instead of 7?

 

But the question of incumbency may be one this team needs to wrestle with.  Poor play should result in benching.  Why not give Way a second shot? Why not bench Chester or Lavauo? Why did it take an injury to finally replace Polumbus? History shows that Compton was at least as good and probably a touch better. Would Long or Stabby have been better? Would Grant have converted some of those third down drops into first down catches?

 

Some positions I believe you can't know what you have until you see it in live action. Why were we so hesitant to make changes in areas of terrible weakness? We certainly traded QBs in and out without seeing major shifts in production.  

 

Anyway, if Kai is the man at kicker this season I hope that Tress gets a chance to win kickoff duties.  Forbath usually does okay at the beginning of the year, but then he hurts himself kicking long and has problems for the rest of the season. It's happened two years in a row.  There ought to be an honest open competition at a number of positions.

 

Frankly, it should continue into the season if players can't perform.

[NickyJ]

poor field position and being behind to the point where three points wouldn't matter limits his oppurtunities

This, this, this. Our offense sucked last season, and that's about all there is to say about it. Some say it was Griff, some say it was one position or the other, it's been hashed over and over again.... whatever. But the end result was that our offense sucked. We had an awful time trying to get into range, and when we finally did, we were beyond the point of salvaging our games through 3-pointers. We went boom or bust, and field goals were an afterthought. Can't blame Kai for not getting more chances.

 

His troubles with kickoffs were a problem, but he was fine on field goals, and after going through the misery of Hall, Novak, Suisham, Gano, and Cundiff flipping on and off like light switches, I'm absolutely satisfied with Forbath.

[skinny21]

This, this, this. Our offense sucked last season, and that's about all there is to say about it. Some say it was Griff, some say it was one position or the other, it's been hashed over and over again.... whatever. But the end result was that our offense sucked. We had an awful time trying to get into range, and when we finally did, we were beyond the point of salvaging our games through 3-pointers. We went boom or bust, and field goals were an afterthought. Can't blame Kai for not getting more chances.

His troubles with kickoffs were a problem, but he was fine on field goals, and after going through the misery of Hall, Novak, Suisham, Gano, and Cundiff flipping on and off like light switches, I'm absolutely satisfied with Forbath.

You may be right, at least that was my impression last year (but I don't know for sure). I'll add that (which you alluded to) Forbath is the 1st kicker in a long time that I don't assume will miss a kick... and that's a good feeling.

In my (admittedly somewhat screwy) mind -

Plan A: Forbath is improved on TBs and coach/offense gives him (more) opportunities for long FGs (and he makes the most of it) - sweet

Plan B: Way kicks off (maybe even handles long FGs), Forbath is still fairly accurate/clutch - cool with me, gives us a backup kicker for Forbath too

Plan C: Forbath still struggles, Way isn't a reasonable option, they find a kicker to beat out Kai - sounds good (guy better not suck though... So very tired of that)

Plan D: Kickers brought in don't work out (are worse than Forbath), coaches say **** it, at least Forbath is pretty accurate and clutch... that's better than nothing. I'd agree with the coaches... **** it.

Plan E: coaches find a stud at kickoffs and carry two place kickers. - this... would not be ideal, but possibly worth it I suppose

or something like that.

Aargh, I've fallen into the offseason Pit of Despair, and now embroiled myself in a fight to the pain over the freakin' kicker.

[goskins10]

Fair enough. The lack of attempts does make you wonder if the coaches lack confidence in him (though it's not necessarily the case). OTOH, if the coaches have no faith based on practices/warm-ups, and yet he is 50% in games, you'd think they would start to give him more opportunities. Who knows.

Edited for space.....

Sorry for seemingly heavy defense of Forbath, I don't actually care much either way - just willing to recognize that he could well improve (or not).

 

 

Make no mistake, I am not on the kick the guy to the curb plan.    I like Kai. If the worst thing that happens is he continues to be money from the 39 in and we look for a KO/long FG specialist or Way develops to be a little more consistent, that's not a bad option. 

 

I just would like us to be normal for once. Get a kicker that can to do the whole job and forget about the position for 10 yrs. 

[Peregrine]

Overestimate others kicking game? 23 other teams had better KOs than us, a slight improvement over the 26 teams that were better last year.

 

And please, I already said he was a good FG kicker, one of the better ones in the league. Please stop saying the same thing and basically ignoring KOs. 3 yards may not seem like much, that's an average. Over the course of the season it's a pretty big deal.

 

Field position has been a problem for both our Off and Def. It's put extra pressure on both the OFF and DEF. You can't underestimate that value. And Kai has a pretty big hand one one end of that.

Thats overestimating other teams kicking games.  What you seem to be implying is that there are a number of teams that have a kicker thats good at both FGs AND kickoffs, and from looking around the league thats simply not true.  If you want to say you think kickoffs are more important thatn FGs thats fine.  But looking at the top 10 kickoff guys from last year they are;

 

1. Zuerline, who was 26th, 5th, and 29th in FGs the last 3 years.

2. Catanzaro, has played only one season, was behind Forbath, at least managed 10th

3. The third best kicker? Morstead, A punter.

4. Billy Cundiff, 30th in the league last year, 76 FG%, 25th the year before, a career percentage of 76.2%

5. Graham Gano, 21st last year, 14th the year before, a career percentage of 79.1%.

6. Kickoff specialist, McManus no FG attempts

7. Nugent, 23rd, 23rd, and 27th in the past 3 years. Career percentage of 80.9%

8. Parkey, tied with Forbath, first year in the NFL.

9. Bullock, 15th and 30th in FG%, career 80%.

10. Hauschka, 18th 11th 18th.

 

So whats on that list?  A bunch of guys who suck at kicking FGs, with 2 first year kickers who had a good year and who may or may not repat it.  Thats a pretty sad list.  I bet their fan base is all clamoring for a guy who can finally hit FGs...  Lets face it, if you want a kicker who can be a top 10 FG kicker, and a top 10 Kickoff guy for more than 1 year....well, you have to keep looking, because there wasnt one this past NFL season.

[Wildbunny]

Well if K was our only problem, then we would be on pretty position to succeed.

 

Also, I don't give a damn if he can't hit 50+ yarders more than 1 or 2 a year. Our Offense is supposed to score TD. We do have a reliable Kicker with pretty good accuracy, Make sure the O can get him in range.

 

Didn't get why Way didn't went with KO duties last year, he was pretty good at it. Still, Forbath is quite young maybe he can improve strenght with our new S&C coaching staff.

[goskins10]

 

Thats overestimating other teams kicking games.  What you seem to be implying is that there are a number of teams that have a kicker thats good at both FGs AND kickoffs, and from looking around the league thats simply not true.  If you want to say you think kickoffs are more important thatn FGs thats fine.  But looking at the top 10 kickoff guys from last year they are;

 

Edited for space:

 

It's very interesting that you make a minor point and people go off the deep end and start making things up. No one ever said KOs were more important. Good grief how do you even get that? I have been on record stating that if the worst thing that happens is we stay the same it would not be the end of the world.

 

All I am saying is the Kai is very weak at KOs and I would like to have a more complete kicker. Also, if you back the 50+ FG attempts out of a lot of those best KO guys the numbers start to normalize. Also, what did you use a the criteria for top 10 KO kicker? # of TBs? that's subject to the number of tries. Is it TB%? Average yds?

 

Here are some interesting numbers. If you back out 50 yd FG atts for last year (I used only those kickers with at least 20 FG attempts overall), no one was lower than 81% (Kai was 92%). Kai's 88% for all kicks was considered very good. Without 50+ FG att. 88% was good for 18th. If you go to 86% is goes all the way to 23rd. So backing out the 50 yd atts makes a big difference on the over all average. Kai got a 4% boost due to a very low number of FG atts (not his fault but its still very low by NFL standards). If I am not mistaken he was injured and missed a few games, but they show him starting 16 so I have to go by that in terms of data.

 

50+ yards FGs generally win games. Giving the other team better field position is a problem. Is this all Kai's fault? No. But he has a big hand in it. That's my only point.

 

Let me ask this, are you saying it would not improve our team if we had a kicker that could do both, kick FGs and be a good KO kicker? Shouldn't we want to be better if we can?

[Brokenstriker]

 

RE: Kerrigan vs. the 'True Studs'

 

Out of the three names you mentioned, only Justin Houston is a more 'complete' player than Kerrigan in my eyes.  All four guys (Houston, Kerrigan, Smith, and Quinn) have played 4 seasons and despite Houston/Quinn/Smith all having one monster season each of 19+ sacks, the numbers are pretty close.

 

Justin Houston: 198 tackles, 48.5 sacks, 7 FF, 3 Pro Bowls

Ryan Kerrigan:   181 tackles, 38 sacks, 15 FF, 1 Pro Bowl

Aldon Smith:      120 tackles, 44 sacks, 6 FF, 2 Pro Bowls

Robert Quinn:    133 tackles, 45 sacks, 14 FF, 2 Pro Bowls

Houston 1 INT 0 TDs vs. Kerrigan 2 INT and  2 TDs ... I think the 2 TDs makes up a lot ... 

[Momma There Goes That Man]

Houston 1 INT 0 TDs vs. Kerrigan 2 INT and  2 TDs ... I think the 2 TDs makes up a lot ... 

 

Not that I'm criticizing Kerrigan but I don't put much stock in them. They are flukey plays that you can't depend on like you can the other pass rushing stats. 

[justice98]

Fair enough. The lack of attempts does make you wonder if the coaches lack confidence in him (though it's not necessarily the case). OTOH, if the coaches have no faith based on practices/warm-ups, and yet he is 50% in games, you'd think they would start to give him more opportunities. Who knows.

Wouldn't mind trying to find a more well-rounded kicker, just want to make sure it's not simply a case of "the grass is always greener"... particularly given the things he does have going for him - 1) kickers frequently get better with age, 2) he's fairly clutch, 3) he's young, 4) he didn't have much experience with kickoffs prior to joing the Redskins, 5) kickoffs supposedly aren't easy to pick up quickly and 6) it seems like Way might be a viable option for kickoffs (if Forbath continues to struggle).

Sorry for seemingly heavy defense of Forbath, I don't actually care much either way - just willing to recognize that he could well improve (or not).

 

I'd love to know what he's doing in practice from 50+.  Combining college and pro, he's 12 for 17 from 50+, it's not like he can't do it.  I don't know if people are expecting him to be 17-17 or what. 

 

But yeah, perhaps with an offseason working on it, Way can get good enough at kickoffs to assume that full time. 

[justice98]

Possibly, But other kickers had had them called back also, and at a higher rate since they try so many more.

 

For last year, of those kickers who tried 20 or more FG, they averaged 5 attempts of 50+yds a season. Kai is at 4 for 3 years! What do you think the chances are that with an average of 11 more tries over the last 3 yrs, that those kickers had some called back also. We are not the only ones called for penalties.

 

No matter how you cut this, Kai is a great FG kicker from the 39 in. He is almost none existent outside that range and is about 24th in KOs over his career. If he can increase his KOs to 50% TBs, I would be ecstatic and glad we have him. I just don't see that changing that much.

 

Sometimes it's just a matter of circumstance.  Stephen Gostkowski, arguably the best kicker in the league, only attempted 1 from 50+ last year.  In 2012, he only attempted 2.  Then for some reason, he had 6 in 2013.  So in a given year, it might just work out that you don't attempt a lot from 50+.  The lack of attempts for Kai should not be proof positive that he can't hit from distance. 

 

But Forbath was 7-9 from 40+ last year, 24 of 29 in his career, that's not a bad percentage by any means.  The narrative that he can't hit from distance is grossly overstated.