ESPN Football Power Index- Redskins ranked 22nd-Lower than expected Media Predictions

[BleedBNG]

ESPN: "... a team's FPI rating combines its efficiency ratings on offense, defense and special teams -- based on each unit's expected points added per play -- with the sum of all three squad ratings yielding the overall FPI rating. We then use these ratings to simulate the NFL season 10,000 times in order to derive a team's chances to win its division, make the playoffs, win the Super Bowl, etc."

 

huh?

 

Anyways, the source of this information

 

 

I just pick out some teams that I feel we'll be better than the order they have. I got us at 17.

[Koolblue13]

On 6/2/2017 at 3:40 PM, skinny21 said:

If that happens, I can almost bet you they won't.  The theme will be that the Rams and Eagles are young, up and coming teams, with maybe a sprinkling of "if they played them later in the year..."

 

I think we have to beat 2 or more good teams before we start to see any real respect.  

 

Relating to that, it actually kind of sucks that our team has a lot of gelling to do (the D and Kirk with his receivers) and yet the schedule starts out vs some not so good teams.  I'd rather start 0-2 vs tougher teams as we get our sea legs.  

I realized week one last season that we were not a good team and would be lucky to get to .500. The steelers saw our holes and just tore them open and it lasted all season the same way.

 

Im glad we get to open with what should be 2 easy wins. We need to come out strong.

 

In the first 6 weeks, we should be 5- 1/6- 0 and played in 3 prime time games, with a divisional sweep of the Eagles.

 

That is when we'll start getting any respect. Its also when we find out if the team is mentally tough and can start getting wins over better teams, without believing our own hype.

 

We better be storming into NY week 17 and knocking the giant's out.

[BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93]

Skins are picked to finish last every year. Who cares? 

 

Only thing to be mad about is Philly being ahead 

[Stefanskins]

On 6/2/2017 at 3:46 PM, ConnSKINS26 said:

 

Weird way of looking at it. Wouldn't you rather play some beatable teams early on while we're still figuring things out, and maybe win anyways, so that by the time we're (hopefully) a well-oiled machine we're ready to compete with the tougher teams? A win is a win at any point in the season, it's almost like you're conceding games to the tougher teams already.

I would...gonna need 4-6 weeks to gel just on the D...I'd play our starters, on both sides, through the first half in every preseason game...unless they're losing...then play til lead or end of game...I'd also see if NE or Pittsburgh would want to do a scrimm or two...

[Stefanskins]

On 6/1/2017 at 11:58 PM, mrcaniac said:

 

Gil Brandt has the Redskins with top 10 most talent on a team in the NFL.

 

After hating him in the 70's and 80's, I'll listen to his take on NFL caliber talent.

 

Gil Brandt on NFL Talent

Very astute write up..only read our Skins part...but spot on imo...interesting that boys n gnats are also too 10...should bode well for the two teams that will come outta the nfce in the playoffs...

[Riggo'sRangers]

We go from 50-1 to 60-1 odds while the Eagles go from 50-1 to 40-1?  I need not even mention the Giants jump.  This years Redskins team is getting absolutely no respect from anywhere or anyone.  The should carry a chip the size of Alaska on their shoulder.  I would be livid if I were a player.  They missed the playoffs by basically a game.  Just wow.  The disrespect is palpable. Hail 

 

"Las Vegas sportsbook William Hill now lists Washington at 60-1 to win Super Bowl LII. The sportsbook released updated odds Monday and the Redskins were previously at 50-1.The Redskins’ dip can be attributed to a number of factors. Primarily, rivals saw increased odds in the NFC East. The Philadelphia Eagles went from 50-1 to 40-1 and the New York Giants went from 25-1 to 18-1."

[Conn]

I'm confused, why wouldn't the Giants get a bump? They fixed their defense, added more weapons on offense, and Eli has shown the ability to go on hot streaks, even though he's hot garbage most of the rest of the time. 

[NoCalMike]

The 'Skins collapsing in 2016 when they had a couple chances to secure a playoff spot likely has a lot to do with them ranking the team so low.  Why the Eagles got such a big jump is the only puzzling thing, but oh well.  June rankings don't really mean much.

[Riggo'sRangers]

41 minutes ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

I'm confused, why wouldn't the Giants get a bump? They fixed their defense, added more weapons on offense, and Eli has shown the ability to go on hot streaks, even though he's hot garbage most of the rest of the time. 

No confusion.  I understand that, but was surprised at the Eagles jumping so far ahead of us.  

8 minutes ago, NoCalMike said:

The 'Skins collapsing in 2016 when they had a couple chances to secure a playoff spot likely has a lot to do with them ranking the team so low.  Why the Eagles got such a big jump is the only puzzling thing, but oh well.  June rankings don't really mean much.

This makes more sense than anything.  No, they don't mean much but is puzzling to me.  It will be an interesting 2017, without a doubt. 

[Commander -JB-]

On 6/1/2017 at 0:21 PM, TheGreek1973 said:

its typical ESPN rankings where the Redskins have never fared well.  What is funny to me is no one from their analysts is giving us credit of the moves we have made on D while they harb on us for loosing DJax and Garcon, never mind the fact that they combined for 7 TDs last season.  Sure they had over 1000 yards each but scoring production was horrid for the two combine.

The Redskins have been consistently mediocre for so long now.  It would be insanity to predict great things for Washington.

[BTBIRD 227]

Look, the Skins are penalized for letting Djax and Garcon go to free agency per ESPN.  Both players are in the twilight of their carreer, and looking for a extra couple of million dollars. ESPN is looking at the face value of what the Skins have lost and what the Skins have acquired.

ESPN is crunching numbers , per the football power index. The Skins are in the  midst of a infusion of new talent and youth. Obviously when you are assigning a face value on the talent  per the FPI , the Skins are going to look lackluster and mediocre with the losses of known talent and a unknown value of the new talent the Skins have acquired , per the ESPN football power index.

Beyond the FPI, I like what the Skins are doing with the roster and the talent. I imagine , if and when the Skins can sign Curt Cousins to a long term contract.

 Would the signing of Curt change ESPN's Football Power Index ? Hail

[Hail2theSkins24]

^^^ Bruce, time to log off ES and leave the bar it's only Wednesday..

[clskinsfan]

I used to do a weekly power rankings thread years ago. I stopped simply because the rankings never made and damn sense. It is all about selling something with the media. Creating buzz, good or bad, sells. Period.

[theTruthTeller]

46 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I used to do a weekly power rankings thread years ago. I stopped simply because the rankings never made and damn sense. It is all about selling something with the media. Creating buzz, good or bad, sells. Period.

If anyone could devise a power ranking that was accurate, then they wouldn't need to revise it weekly.

[Voice_of_Reason]

On 6/14/2017 at 11:23 AM, NoCalMike said:

The 'Skins collapsing in 2016 when they had a couple chances to secure a playoff spot likely has a lot to do with them ranking the team so low.  Why the Eagles got such a big jump is the only puzzling thing, but oh well.  June rankings don't really mean much.

In the NFL, rankings don't mean anything.

[Stefanskins]

On 6/4/2017 at 5:30 PM, BleedBNG said:

ESPN: "... a team's FPI rating combines its efficiency ratings on offense, defense and special teams -- based on each unit's expected points added per play -- with the sum of all three squad ratings yielding the overall FPI rating. We then use these ratings to simulate the NFL season 10,000 times in order to derive a team's chances to win its division, make the playoffs, win the Super Bowl, etc."

 

huh?

 

Anyways, the source of this information

 

 

I just pick out some teams that I feel we'll be better than the order they have. I got us at 17.

1

lol that dude is awesome!!! 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

On 6/15/2017 at 5:49 PM, Voice_of_Reason said:

In the NFL, rankings don't mean anything.

 

They don't.  I actually look it as a contrarian and see these dire predictions as a good sign.  and I recall Jay Gruden saying they fed off of that negativity in 2015.

 

To add fuel to the fire, PFF weighs in.  Redskins are the 4th worst team in the NFC.  Apparently to them the Bears are even a better team.

 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/pro-falcons-sit-atop-first-batch-of-nfc-projections-for-2017/

[Riggo'sRangers]

10 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

To add fuel to the fire, PFF weighs in.  Redskins are the 4th worst team in the NFC.  Apparently to them the Bears are even a better team.

Just....wow.  Well, they have plenty of fuel.  This **** needs to be posted everywhere in the locker room.....get pissed off and make **** happen.  Again, going to be a very interesting year.  Hail

[skinny21]

13 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

They don't.  I actually look it as a contrarian and see these dire predictions as a good sign.  and I recall Jay Gruden saying they fed off of that negativity in 2015.

 

To add fuel to the fire, PFF weighs in.  Redskins are the 4th worst team in the NFC.  Apparently to them the Bears are even a better team.

 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/pro-falcons-sit-atop-first-batch-of-nfc-projections-for-2017/

That's so strange to me because this seems (and Brandt backs it up) the most complete and talented team we've had in decades.  

 

Now sure, you have to buy in to the potential a bit.  Allen, Pryor, Doctson, Swearinger and Brown all have to perform... but they have a serious pedigree.  

 

On the 2nd tier, Breeland, Cravens, Fuller, Galette/Smith, Kelley/Perine have to show us some good play, but again - there's pedigree there.  This isn't a bunch of cast offs or UDFA's we're hoping will solidify a unit.  

 

We also have the benefit of (generally speaking) very solid talent at qb, oline and ST.  

 

And I hardly touched on some of our best players - Reed, Norman, Crowder, and Kerrigan.  

 

Bulletin board material indeed.  

[Skinsinparadise]

11 hours ago, skinny21 said:

That's so strange to me because this seems (and Brandt backs it up) the most complete and talented team we've had in decades.  

 

Now sure, you have to buy in to the potential a bit.  Allen, Pryor, Doctson, Swearinger and Brown all have to perform... but they have a serious pedigree.  

 

On the 2nd tier, Breeland, Cravens, Fuller, Galette/Smith, Kelley/Perine have to show us some good play, but again - there's pedigree there.  This isn't a bunch of cast offs or UDFA's we're hoping will solidify a unit.  

 

We also have the benefit of (generally speaking) very solid talent at qb, oline and ST.  

 

And I hardly touched on some of our best players - Reed, Norman, Crowder, and Kerrigan.  

 

Bulletin board material indeed.  

 

The metric guys, PFF and Football outsiders think the team will be bottom rung.  You got 4 out 6 ESPN analysts saying the Redskins are the team that has gotten the worst in the off season.     Every football magazine expects them to be bottom rung.  Vegas, too.

 

Yeah I get that for the last 20 years plus this has most been a less than mediocre team.  But they have had two winning records in a row.  The team I think by most indicators got appreciably better not appreciably worse.  But like I said, if Jay feeds off of this stuff, It's good motivational tool.  

 

IMO this team has too many laid back-nice guy types like Kerrigan.  Good players but they don't seem to play angry with an edge.  The Giants leading up to the last game of the season seemed more edgy and fired up about knocking the Redskins out of the playoffs than the Redskins seemed to be on edge about getting into the playoffs.  And I said so in the days leading up to the game.

 

But Swearinger seems like an angry dude type (in a good way).  Ryan Anderson.  I liked to hear Zach Brown saying no one is expecting anything from this team and he likes it, he said lets shock everyone.  I think this team more than most benefits from things that can give you an edge.   Granted its not the be all and end all, but I might give them some more oomph.  Jay and D. Hall at least seemed to think so in 2015.

 

 

 

 

[skinny21]

Very valid point about the fiery guys SIP.  

 

I thought for sure I could come up with others, but outside of Norman and maybe Spaight (and that's only because I saw him doing pregame stuff last year) and the 2-3 you mentioned...

 

I wonder how much of this attitude is built up in the offseason with trash talk (between O and D that we hear about) and physical practices.  

 

It certainly seems to help when we'd get the occasional big hits on D or ST, but we need more than (just) that.  

 

The good news is that you don't need a team full of those type of guys, they just need to bring out some of that passion/aggression/attitude in others.  Gonna be interesting.

 

Edit:  and, right after posting this I see the article on Swearinger in BRBN

 

http://m.washingtontimes.com/

 

“D.J. is a leader,” said secondary coach Torrian Gray. “He’s intense. He’s the one who kind of gets the group together and kind of says a lot of things to get us going and brings that juice and brings that attitude, so it’s been great having D.J.”

 

 

[goskins10]

1 hour ago, skinny21 said:

Very valid point about the fiery guys SIP.  

 

Edit

 

 

 

 

I agree with most of what you and @Skinsinparadise are saying. I still think our STs over the last few years are being overlooked. In 2014 we were 29th. In 2015 it went to 6th and then 2016 it was 14th - losing ground mostly thanks to Hopkins FG misses.

 

Having said that, over the years it is clear all these prognosticators jut assume teams will be the same as the year before. They pick a darling or two they think we turn around and one or two good teams they think will regress. Other than that they just assume same as last year. Then they take whatever actually happens during the offseason to justify their predetermined position. So no matter what the team had done, they were going to say they did not get better.

 

I will agree that a lot of what we have is potential. But while not all of it is going to workout, not all of it is going to fail either. If this defense gets better at all - the team will be in every game. Then it will come down to who wants to win. That's where those guys with killer instincts you are both talking about become important.

 

I for one like them trashing the team. It does seem to motivate them - at least it should.

[Reaper Skins]

[TheGreek1973]

On 6/1/2017 at 11:40 AM, Burgold said:

I think the Eagles are getting too much love based on the above. I think we're a little underloved, but from a national perspective I buy it. Last year, the Redskins had a so-so year. We can claim to winning seasons, but 8-7-1 is about as meh as you can get. Combine that with the loss of two 1,000 yard receivers, the team's OC and DC not to mention GM, plus practically entirely new defense that has to figure out how to gel and a question mark at running back... and you can understand skepticism.

 

It could all come together well. If Cousins is on point than the wrs should get up to speed pretty easily. Kelly's not exciting, but he's solid. Perrine has potential. The D has enough talent to make some noise.

I don't think so, heck I will go on record and say that the Redskins and the Eagles finish 1-2, I am not just sure of the order.  I will give us the nod because I still think their QB has some growing up to do.  But their D, and offensive weapons are stellar.  The team I don't think will be as good as everyone thinks is the Giants.  Don't know why but they still have an average at best OL and I think father time will catch up with Eli, heck last year to me it seemed it already has.

[NeverSurrender]

I just want to say this.  There is a chance we signed the best reciever in the league this offseason.  I cant wait to watch this offense.