2024 NFL Draft Position/Tracker - Final Pick #2

[Skinsinparadise]

4 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Which in @JamesMadisonSkins scenario above it was at .524

 

NOTE: I didn't check his math on the SOS.  I'm assuming he is right, because when has he ever been wrong?

 

lol, don't know but SOS of course isn't static, we got 4 games to go, pretty rare to end up with the exact SOS of another team

[Voice_of_Reason]

1 minute ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

Okay, this makes a ton of sense. So we need the Patriots to get to 5 wins to leapfrog them in any case. 

That's only applicable if the SOS is exactly the same.  

 

It's a multi-variable equation.  We could leap frog them with 4 wins IF their SOS is easier than ours.  But since we have the Eagles and the Cowboys in division, and they both refuse to lose, that skews our SOS higher just because of the division.  We also play the 49ers.  The Pats only have one team in division with an elite-like record, and that's the Dolphins.  The Bills are even and the jets are bad.  We have 2 elite record teams and one bad team.  

 

This is why we need to build a draft predictor machine where you do what you do with the Playoff Predictor but instead of spitting out the playoff teams it spits out the draft order.  

 

Because some random Cardinal's vs. Raiders game actually could flip draft order for Commanders and Patriots.  

[Panninho]

2-6 the most likely range

 

[Redwards]

47 minutes ago, Llevron said:

 

I 10000% agree with this 

We're guaranteed to lose our last two games even at full-strength.

It's the JETS game that worries me.  Sit 'em then.  

[Voice_of_Reason]

Just now, Skinsinparadise said:

 

lol, don't know but SOS of course isn't static, we got 4 games to go, pretty rare to end up with the exact SOS of another team

Exactly.  He put the same SOS for the 2 teams and asked who would get the tie breaker.  

 

But with 32 teams, the SOS being EXACTLY the same would be tricky unless the teams were in the same division, where it would be more possible, given 14 of the 17 games are in common.  

 

Between divisions, it would be a lot less likely. 

1 minute ago, Redwards said:

We're guaranteed to lose our last two games even at full-strength.

It's the JETS game that worries me.  Sit 'em then.  

If Dallas has nothing to play for, they could tank that game just to screw our draft position.

 

I jest.  McCarthy isn't that smart.  

 

That dude is one of the luckiest SOBs in the history of football.  First Rodgers kept him afloat, then he was given a STACKED Dallas team which almost can't sink (until the playoffs.)

 

I swear the guy is a nimrod with good results.

[ColonialWBSkinsFan]

12 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

 In the mean time, I think Rivers fathered 2 or 3 children.  

 

 

😁 That is great.

[Llevron]

9 minutes ago, Redwards said:

We're guaranteed to lose our last two games even at full-strength.

It's the JETS game that worries me.  Sit 'em then.  

 

Right that's what's worries me most 

[method man]

20 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Howell is a 5th round pick who has had a good but not great season.  He's going to be here no matter what.  If you like a QB better, you pick him independent of anything else. 

 

When the Chargers selected (first Eli and then) Rivers, Brees was on the roster as a second round pick who they didn't think was good enough.  But he won the job in training camp and started the next year.  (In the mean time, I think Rivers fathered 2 or 3 children.)  

 

Then Brees left to go to the Saints and Rivers took over.

 

It is what it is.  You take the guy you like.

Most recent comp for this is probably Minshew. Jaguars clearly felt uncomfortable keeping him and traded him to the Eagles. You could argue Davis Mills as an example and that being a counterpoint because the Texans kept him but he shat the bed his 2nd year so there was no controversy there.

 

The cleanest thing to do is to trade Sam in that scenario and have a veteran backup like a Brissett who is not a threat

[Andre The Giant]

 

[kingdaddy]

2 hours ago, method man said:

If you guys recall, Roseman made Pederson sit Hurts in the second half against us in 2020 to preserve their pick, which they parlayed into a ton of assets down the line. Roseman knew he was going to fire Pederson. Similarly, Harris should make Rivera start sitting folks for the last 2 games

I would sit Howell for SF, Dallas and NYJ...let him play one more game. We need to assure he's healthy over the off-season for all kinds of reasons. I don't trust EB and RR to keep him safe. We've seen enough of him whether we keep him or trade him. His health as an asset is paramount for this off-season rebuild.

[Voice_of_Reason]

54 minutes ago, method man said:

Most recent comp for this is probably Minshew. Jaguars clearly felt uncomfortable keeping him and traded him to the Eagles. You could argue Davis Mills as an example and that being a counterpoint because the Texans kept him but he shat the bed his 2nd year so there was no controversy there.

 

The cleanest thing to do is to trade Sam in that scenario and have a veteran backup like a Brissett who is not a threat

That's a $5-10 million dollar decision to get rid of a 5th round pick salary to bring in a veteran backup.  

 

If they draft Maye, Williams or Daniels, Howell is not a threat. 

 

And honestly, if any of those guys are threatened by Howell, they're the wrong guy anyway.  Just like Griffin being threatened by Kirk.  Early signs he had a fragile psyche.  

 

If you're the #2-4 pick in the draft and you're a QB and you're not ready for a competition that's rigged for you to win anyway, that's on you.

 

If you get a #2-4 pick in and they can't beat out Howell, well, that tells you something also.

 

There's no way I'm trading Howell unless it's for a 2nd or better under any circumstance.  

[Voice_of_Reason]

1 hour ago, ColonialWBSkinsFan said:

😁 That is great.

I mean, he has 10 now.    So, is it a stretch to think he knocked up his wife twice in a 12 month span while he was riding the bench?  I don't think so....

 

I do think I remember, however, of his 10 kids, he has 8 girls and 2 boys. And 3 of his middle kids are all less than a year apart.  I think they're like 12, 13 and 14 now. 

 

Al Galdi had some "scheduled fun" on his podcast at one point about the GOAT of procreators.  It started when Robert De Niro fathered a child at 79, followed shortly by Al Pacino fathering a child at 83, and then he discussed Nick Cannon and his 12 kids with (I think) 5 women.  He also brought up River's as the GOAT from a sports perspective with his 10 kids. I think they range from newborn (this year) to something like 21 because if memory serves, he had his first child when he was still in college.  

 

And no, I didn't look up any of that.  Just remembered it from Galdi.  

Edited December 8, 2023 by Voice_of_Reason

[kingdaddy]

11 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

That's a $5-10 million dollar decision to get rid of a 5th round pick salary to bring in a veteran backup.  

 

If they draft Maye, Williams or Daniels, Howell is not a threat. 

 

And honestly, if any of those guys are threatened by Howell, they're the wrong guy anyway.  Just like Griffin being threatened by Kirk.  Early signs he had a fragile psyche.  

 

If you're the #2-4 pick in the draft and you're a QB and you're not ready for a competition that's rigged for you to win anyway, that's on you.

 

If you get a #2-4 pick in and they can't beat out Howell, well, that tells you something also.

 

There's no way I'm trading Howell unless it's for a 2nd or better under any circumstance.  

Minimum high 2nd and a 2025 3rd is my asking price for Howell. Whoever wants him will pay that because they likely have nothing else they're comfortable with.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

1 hour ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

That's only applicable if the SOS is exactly the same.  

 

It's a multi-variable equation.  We could leap frog them with 4 wins IF their SOS is easier than ours.  But since we have the Eagles and the Cowboys in division, and they both refuse to lose, that skews our SOS higher just because of the division.  We also play the 49ers.  The Pats only have one team in division with an elite-like record, and that's the Dolphins.  The Bills are even and the jets are bad.  We have 2 elite record teams and one bad team.  

 

This is why we need to build a draft predictor machine where you do what you do with the Playoff Predictor but instead of spitting out the playoff teams it spits out the draft order.  

 

Because some random Cardinal's vs. Raiders game actually could flip draft order for Commanders and Patriots.  

 

Okay, so I think I rigged the system to do this ... you can combine NFC and AFC teams and sort by record which sorts by record / tie-break of SOS.

 

If my initial scenario plays out and we lose to the Jets, we would actually get the 3rd pick ... we'd be tied with NE in Record and SOS (.516) which would be tops among the large group of 4-13 teams.

 

1. Panthers (Bears): 1-16

2. Patriots: 4-13 (.516)

3. Commanders: 4-13 (.516)

4. Giants: 4-13 (.536)

5. Titans: 4-13 (.543)

6. Cardinals: 4-13 (.564)

7. Jets: 5-12 (.519)

8. Bears: 6-11 (.471)

 

IF we beat the Jets:

1. Panthers: 1-16

2. Patriots: 4-13 (.512)

3. Jets: 4-13 (.522)

4. Giants: 4-13 (.540)

5. Titans: 4-13 (.543)

6. Cardinals: 4-13 (.567)

7. Commanders: 5-12 (.512)

Edited December 8, 2023 by JamesMadisonSkins

[Conn]

2 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

If we draft a QB I see us keeping Howell as a placeholder who also has some upside of his own. Think the Chargers who kept Brees after drafting Rivers. Brees broke out and left as a FA, but Howell has two years left on his deal so if he plays well in 2024, we could trade him and get some real good value. 

 

And besides, after being in the QB wasteland for most of the last 30+ years, there are worse things to have then two quality QBs. 

I think in general that would be smart, but due to the heavy value teams (including us, likely) place on QB’s competing on rookie contracts, every game your new QB isn’t starting is wasting a small portion of that contract. And similarly, every game Howell plays while that new QB sits (hypothetically), is time on Howell’s limited rookie contract that he’s losing that another team would have paid for. So I think you kind of need to ship him out at max value ASAP after that QB draft pick happens and just roll with the new guy. Bring in a cheap vet as a stopgap if you absolutely need it (you shouldn’t if you picked the right QB and the right playcaller, nowadays).

 

That’s not even getting into the potential QB controversy. You need to be 1000% behind the new QB if you pick him in the top 5. Howell can’t be in the building in that circumstance given what he’s shown. 

Edited December 8, 2023 by Conn

[Warhead36]

10 minutes ago, Conn said:

I think in general that would be smart, but due to the heavy value teams (including us, likely) place on QB’s competing on rookie contracts, every game your new QB isn’t starting is wasting a small portion of that contract. And similarly, every game Howell plays while that new QB sits (hypothetically), is time on Howell’s limited rookie contract that he’s losing that another team would have paid for. So I think you kind of need to ship him out at max value ASAP after that QB draft pick happens and just roll with the new guy. Bring in a cheap vet as a stopgap if you absolutely need it (you shouldn’t if you picked the right QB and the right playcaller, nowadays).

 

That’s not even getting into the potential QB controversy. You need to be 1000% behind the new QB if you pick him in the top 5. Howell can’t be in the building in that circumstance given what he’s shown. 

Yeah I'd be fine with trading Howell too. My hope is that EB goes somewhere(either as a HC or OC)that needs a QB and they offer up something decent for Howell IF we decide to draft a QB.

[Voice_of_Reason]

8 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

Okay, so I think I rigged the system to do this ... you can combine NFC and AFC teams and sort by record which sorts by record / tie-break of SOS.

 

If my initial scenario plays out and we lose to the Jets, we would actually get the 3rd pick ... we'd be tied with NE in Record and SOS (.516) which would be tops among the large group of 4-13 teams.

 

1. Panthers (Bears): 1-16

2. Patriots: 4-13 (.516)

3. Commanders: 4-13 (.516)

4. Giants: 4-13 (.536)

5. Titans: 4-13 (.543)

6. Cardinals: 4-13 (.564)

7. Jets: 5-12 (.519)

8. Bears: 6-11 (.471)

 

IF we beat the Jets:

1. Panthers: 1-16

2. Patriots: 4-13 (.512)

3. Jets: 4-13 (.522)

4. Giants: 4-13 (.540)

5. Titans: 4-13 (.543)

6. Cardinals: 4-13 (.567)

7. Commanders: 5-12 (.512)

Yeah, but that also asumes the Patriots, Jets, Giants and Titans and Cardinals don't win another game.

 

Also, with SOS, teams not even in these lists playing each other can effect the SOS. 

 

It's tough to be able to predict.  

 

I think we're going to end up with the 5th pick.  And I think I'm going to be fine with that.  I'd prefer 4th, but based on absolutely nothing other than my gut and the law of averages, I think it's going to be #5.  And we'll get one of the best 2 offensive tackles in the draft. 

 

Just a hunch. 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Here's what we need to root for:

- Cardinals win 1 of 4 remaining games (SF, CHI, PHI, SEA)

- Patriots to win 2 of remaining 4 games (KC, DEN, BUF, NYJ)

- Jets to win 1 of remaining 5 games (HOU, MIA, WAS, CLE, NE)

- Titans to win 1 of remaining 5 games (MIA, HOU, SEA, HOU, JAX)

- Giants to win 1 of remaining 5 games (GB, NO, PHI, LAR, PHI)

- Bears to win 1 of remaining 5 games (DET, CLE, ARI, ATL, GB)

- Commanders to lose all 4 remaining games (LAR, NYJ, SF, DAL)

 

So looking at the above, we want to be rooting for the Patriots to beat Denver and the Jets. We want the Jets to beat the Commanders. We want the Cardinals to beat the Bears, but the Bears beat the Browns or Falcons. THIS is the path the the #2 pick outright. 

 

It would be nice if the Giants beat NO ... but we likely hold a tie-break over them if they lose out and we lose out. Same with Commanders > Titans in tie-break, but would be nice if Titans could upset one of their remaining 5. 

 

 

Edited December 8, 2023 by JamesMadisonSkins

[Voice_of_Reason]

Just now, Warhead36 said:

Yeah I'd be fine with trading Howell too. My hope is that EB goes somewhere(either as a HC or OC)that needs a QB and they offer up something decent for Howell IF we decide to draft a QB.

I think a lot is riding on the last 4 weeks.  

 

I think some part of Howell's struggles the last game are he is really beat up and needed a break.

 

If he's a little healthier, less banged up, and they can move the ball again like they were 3 or 4 weeks ago, then I think there are opportunities for both EB and Howell around the league.  Though, in that case I'd be MUCH more interested in Howell here and EB not.  

 

If they continue on the path they've been on the last 2 weeks against Dallas and Miami, where they almost can't move the ball at all, then I think the shine is off of EB entirely, and Howell is viewed more as a backup.  Which I'm not sure is entirely fair, but it is what it is.  

 

I want them to score 24-30 points a game the last 4 weeks. 

 

And I want them to give up 35-40 points and lose each week.  That would make me happy.  

 

The issue is going to be the Jets.  We're going to have to lose that one 24-20.  Even our putrid defense won't be able to make that offense look good.  Maybe average.  But not good.  

[Commander202]

There’s a good chance we get to the #3 pick. With Kyle back for Arizona they are actually a good team who can pull some wins . Patriots might beat the jets.

[Warhead36]

The good thing is that all the teams picking at or near the top have been playing better football recently(other then the Panthers but we're not getting the #1 pick anyway). The Patriots just won in Pittsburgh and their defense gives them a chance every week(they had three straight games allowing only 10 points and somehow lost all 3). The Cards have Murray back and have looked a lot better. The Bears just won in Minnesota and should have won in Detroit. Giants have won two in a row and could steal one and the Titans defense and Vrabel's coaching lets them fight in most games.

 

The Jets are the only issue with how bad their offense is, but we play them anyway. It is IMPERATIVE we lose that game. Could be the difference between a top 3-4 pick or picking like 7th.

3 minutes ago, Commander202 said:

There’s a good chance we get to the #3 pick. With Kyle back for Arizona they are actually a good team who can pull some wins . Patriots might beat the jets.

#3 is the ultimate sweet spot. We're guaranteed one of the top 2-3 QBs or Harrison.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

9 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

 

#3 is the ultimate sweet spot. We're guaranteed one of the top 2-3 QBs or Harrison.

 

Yeah #3 is the sweet spot, but if we could somehow angle into the #2 pick, boy. We could get a ransom of a trade-back and still likely stay in range of Harrison or the Top OT. 

 

I would make clear that #2 was up to the highest bidder, then I was swap #2 and #3 with the Giants, let them draft Maye, and then we either trade #3 back again or take Harrison/Fashanu

 

 

[ColonialWBSkinsFan]

58 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Here's what we need to root for:

- Cardinals win 1 of 4 remaining games (SF, CHI, PHI, SEA)

- Patriots to win 2 of remaining 4 games (KC, DEN, BUF, NYJ)

- Jets to win 1 of remaining 5 games (HOU, MIA, WAS, CLE, NE)

- Titans to win 1 of remaining 5 games (MIA, HOU, SEA, HOU, JAX)

- Giants to win 1 of remaining 5 games (GB, NO, PHI, LAR, PHI)

- Bears to win 1 of remaining 5 games (DET, CLE, ARI, ATL, GB)

- Commanders to lose all 4 remaining games (LAR, NYJ, SF, DAL)

 

So looking at the above, we want to be rooting for the Patriots to beat Denver and the Jets. We want the Jets to beat the Commanders. We want the Cardinals to beat the Bears, but the Bears beat the Browns or Falcons. THIS is the path the the #2 pick outright. 

 

It would be nice if the Giants beat NO ... but we likely hold a tie-break over them if they lose out and we lose out. Same with Commanders > Titans in tie-break, but would be nice if Titans could upset one of their remaining 5. 

 

 

 

This is good work, @JamesMadisonSkins.  Sad that we are already looking at "ways to get the highest draft pick possible" with 5 weeks left in the season, but it is what it is.  But has anyone checked in on @kleese recently?   He's probably holed up somewhere figuring out a scenario where we could win all four games left and still get in the playoffs at 8-9! 

 

 

44 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

Yeah #3 is the sweet spot, but if we could somehow angle into the #2 pick, boy. We could get a ransom of a trade-back and still likely stay in range of Harrison or the Top OT. 

 

I would make clear that #2 was up to the highest bidder, then I was swap #2 and #3 with the Giants, let them draft Maye, and then we either trade #3 back again or take Harrison/Fashanu

 

 

 

Careful what you wish for, JMS, I'm a UNC grad and I've watched every minute of every Howell and Drake game the past 5 years.... and as much as I love Howell, Drake's upside is clearly higher.  I really do NOT want to have to be playing against him twice a year for the next 10 years.

[The Consigliere]

7 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

He definitlety can play. 

 

Dudes who can run like him indeed can translate to the NFL if they learn how to get down.  We talk about RG3 but Russell Wilson has had a long career and used his legs plenty, even at 35 he's on pace to run for 400 even at this age.  Alex Smith arguably transformed his career when he started using his legs more in KC. etc.  As for Jayden though he has to learn to stop being reckless when he does run.  He is a throw first QB.  But his running ability is definitely a key part of his game.  He needs to bulk up his upper body IMO.

 

I haven't studied Drake Maye but when watching other players, he jumps out.  Prototype QB size, big arm, and good mobility.  Judging by reporters, the Giants scouts are all over him, they send armies of scouts to watch every one of his games.

 

If they end up picking 2nd-4th.  Not saying they should take a QB.  I don't know.  But I've seen and heard enough to believe this FO will likely study these guys hard versus shrug off these as possibitlies.   But who knows will see after they hire the GM.

 

Tough call IMO.  But for now, I just want that high pick.

Getting that mental make up, processing piece is so huge. I would love to know how and why Stroud slipped through the cracks, and Bryce jumped ahead of him. What did the S2 overrate for Young and undersell for Stroud because when you look at them, it's NIGHT AND DAY. I'm just listening to Bill Simmons podcast today, and I don't agree w/the guy pretty much 50% of the time, but just listening to them talk about Zion in particular, Ja to a lesser extent, and then Halliburton (who was beloved on the Wizards board before that draft, and us passing on him lead to much gnashing of teeth, fully justified in retrospect), and the talk about Zion basically clearly devolving into a lazy ----, out of shape, clearly dgaf athlete is a huge problem. Nothing can be perfect, but you'd like to think interviews, background checks, mental make up grades could help evaluate guys for risks they'd behave as moronically as Ja has, or be so disinterested in playing the game as Zion appears to be. With Quarterbacks this seems so so so much harder. Are they first in, last out, are they doing what Puca apparently was in LA (the only guy to come in and demand entry into the coaches+only serious players "tape reviews" meeting at 4am in the offseason) with the Rams? I don't know what makes Stroud that good. Is he like that or is he just so freaking good at the physical? Does he have a brilliant spatial awareness IQ? I have no idea. But nailing down whether this player can lead guys quietly or loudly, whether this guy loves to work, whether this guy has the tools is just a monstrously difficult task. We really need to know how Howell, Caleb, Drake, and Jayden (and next years group) look w/regards to this. Its critical. 

[BobGriffin]

10 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

Getting that mental make up, processing piece is so huge. I would love to know how and why Stroud slipped through the cracks, and Bryce jumped ahead of him. What did the S2 overrate for Young and undersell for Stroud because when you look at them, it's NIGHT AND DAY. I'm just listening to Bill Simmons podcast today, and I don't agree w/the guy pretty much 50% of the time, but just listening to them talk about Zion in particular, Ja to a lesser extent, and then Halliburton (who was beloved on the Wizards board before that draft, and us passing on him lead to much gnashing of teeth, fully justified in retrospect), and the talk about Zion basically clearly devolving into a lazy ----, out of shape, clearly dgaf athlete is a huge problem. Nothing can be perfect, but you'd like to think interviews, background checks, mental make up grades could help evaluate guys for risks they'd behave as moronically as Ja has, or be so disinterested in playing the game as Zion appears to be. With Quarterbacks this seems so so so much harder. Are they first in, last out, are they doing what Puca apparently was in LA (the only guy to come in and demand entry into the coaches+only serious players "tape reviews" meeting at 4am in the offseason) with the Rams? I don't know what makes Stroud that good. Is he like that or is he just so freaking good at the physical? Does he have a brilliant spatial awareness IQ? I have no idea. But nailing down whether this player can lead guys quietly or loudly, whether this guy loves to work, whether this guy has the tools is just a monstrously difficult task. We really need to know how Howell, Caleb, Drake, and Jayden (and next years group) look w/regards to this. Its critical. 

 

 

It's an impossible task, you can do all the homework you want in the world but there are variables that cannot be defined or researched because humans change, things like

1. How will the situation they are coming into impact their development?

2. How will they respond to the life of being a high-profile professional athlete

 

I think with Ja and Zion there was no way to know that they would respond to stardom the way they have. As far as Stroud and Bryce Young, the Texans current organization seems to be MUCH more competent than the Panthers with Snyder Jr, so while Stroud is probably straight-up better it's exacerbated by the difference in the situation. 

 

But this is why tangibles like height, weight, and speed matter so much because they are what they are. Stroud is and plays like a much bigger/stronger athlete as well.  

Edited December 8, 2023 by BobGriffin