2024 NFL Draft Position/Tracker - Final Pick #2

[JSSkinz]

The Pats play the Jets in week 17, If we can figure out a way to stay consistent and lose out that game will be interesting to us.

[The Consigliere]

5 hours ago, kingdaddy said:

Don't bail....this is going to be the greatest off-season in ES history and a very exciting off-season for the franchise. We have cap money, will have a new GM and head coach and will be involved in tons of rumors regarding our draft position. The witch is dead and good times are ahead....if we can live long enough. 

No doubt. if you suffered through the last thirty years since Gibbs I ended (perfectly synchronized in my life to my graduation from high school (June '93), you deserve the hope that comes w/an owner that isn't snyder and true rebuild, something we haven't done in any genuine sense since Turner's failed '94-'00 effort. Gibbs tried shortcuts, Shanny tried short cuts, the Allen years were all short cuts, and the Ron years shortcut QB which means they short cutted too. This is the first time we might actually try to do it right.

 

The poignant thing, for me at least, is that it's 50% too late, or 80% too late, not sure how to couch it. They simply beat the love for the team out of me for thirty years. By around 2008 after Gibbs II ended my fandom was slipping, when we were according to everyone, the worst roster and team in the league from 2008-2011 and could not land Matt Stafford, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, or Andrew Luck, that killed another chunk, the whole bull---- treatment of RGIII's health in the playoffs in '12, the McCloughan/Allen, drunk or not, lets screw over Cousins etc killed another chunk, and the refusal to draft QB's from '17-'21 in the quality classes just about killed it entirely. It's almost like someone notices my fandom was 95% dead, and decided to kick Snyder to the curb to torture me for the second half of my life, but here we are. It's not like I can follow a different team but my son? My son gets to pick his team, aint no way I indoctrinated him into this ---- the way my older brother did to me as I was growing up in the bay area (much to my wife's irritation). 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

11 minutes ago, JSSkinz said:

The Pats play the Jets in week 17, If we can figure out a way to stay consistent and lose out that game will be interesting to us.

 

If we lose to the Jets, we are going to be rooting HARD for them to lose to the Pats that week. In what might be Bill's last game as a Pat that might have extra motivation to finish strong. 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Ran the simulator again based on current Vegas odds for each game (at least what I could find on the Miami Herald website, idk)

1. Panthers (Bears): 1-16

2. Cardinals: 3-14

3. Patriots: 4-13 (.519)

4. Commanders: 4-13 (.523)

5. Giants: 5-12 (.519)

6. Titans: 5-12 (.533)

7. Chargers: 5-12 (.543)

8. Bears: 6-11 (.474)

9. Raiders: 6-11 (.505)

10. Jets: 6-11 (.519)

[JamesMadisonSkins]

2 hours ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Here's what we need to root for:

- Cardinals win 1 of 4 remaining games (SF, CHI, PHI, SEA)

- Patriots to win 2 of remaining 4 games (KC, DEN, BUF, NYJ)

- Jets to win 1 of remaining 5 games (HOU, MIA, WAS, CLE, NE)

- Titans to win 1 of remaining 5 games (MIA, HOU, SEA, HOU, JAX)

- Giants to win 1 of remaining 5 games (GB, NO, PHI, LAR, PHI)

- Bears to win 1 of remaining 5 games (DET, CLE, ARI, ATL, GB)

- Commanders to lose all 4 remaining games (LAR, NYJ, SF, DAL)

 

So looking at the above, we want to be rooting for the Patriots to beat Denver and the Jets. We want the Jets to beat the Commanders. We want the Cardinals to beat the Bears, but the Bears beat the Browns or Falcons. THIS is the path the the #2 pick outright. 

 

If this plays out, here's your draft order:

1. Panthers (Bears): 1-16

2. Commanders: 4-13 (.516)

3. Giants: 4-13 (.543)

4. Titans: 4-13 (.547)

5. Cardinals: 4-13 (.564)

6. Bears: 5-12 (.467)

7. Patriots: 5-12 (.509)

8. Jets: 5-12 (.519)

9. Buccaneers: 6-11

10. Chargers: 6-11

Just now, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

If this plays out, here's your draft order:

1. Panthers (Bears): 1-16

2. Commanders: 4-13 (.516)

3. Giants: 4-13 (.543)

4. Titans: 4-13 (.547)

5. Cardinals: 4-13 (.564)

6. Bears: 5-12 (.467)

7. Patriots: 5-12 (.509)

8. Jets: 5-12 (.519)

9. Buccaneers: 6-11

10. Chargers: 6-11

 

Here's what I am doing with #2. I am trading it to the Patriots for #7, their 2nd, 4th and a 2025 1st round pick.

1. Bears: Caleb Williams, QB USC

2. Patriots: Drake Maye, QB UNC

3. Giants: Marvin Harrison, WR Ohio State

4. Titans: Olu Fashanu, OT Penn State

5. Cardinals: Malik Nabers, WR LSU

6. Bears: Dallas Turner, EDGE Alabama

7. Washington: Joe Alt, OT Notre Dame + 2nd, 4th and 2025 1st from Patriots

[HigSkin]

This weekends game routing guide -

 

Bears beat Lions

Jets beat Texans

Giants beat Packers

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10100276-commanders-rooting-guide-for-2024-nfl-draft-implications-of-week-14

[The Consigliere]

5 hours ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Here's the playoff machine breakdown (from me) based on Jets/Commanders dual scenarios:

 

Commanders Lose:

1. Panthers (Bears): 1-16 (.525)

2. Giants: 4-13 (.519)

3. Patriots: 4-13 (.524)*

4. Commanders: 4-13 (.524)*

5. Titans: 4-13 (.537)

6. Cardinals: 4-13 (.558)

7. Jets: 5-12 (.517)

*Not sure who gets the tie-breaker here between Patriots and Commanders

 

Commanders Win:

1. Panthers (Bears): 1-16 (.525)

2. Jets: 4-13 (.517)

3. Giants: 4-13 (.519)

4. Patriots: 4-13 (.524)

5. Titans: 4-13 (.537)

6. Cardinals: 4-13 (.558)

7. Commanders: 5-12 (.524)

 

So it's pretty safe to say if we go 5-12 we SHOULD be picking no lower than #7. If we lose out, then we are looking at potentially being as high as #3, MAYBE #2 ... depending on tie-breakers and SoS

People need to pay attention to that Dallas finale. It holds concern. The Cowboys need to beat the Eagles this weekend to have it carry any value then, and I think the Eagles might still own the tiebreaker even then (divisional record, then conference record). If the cowboys rest starters, nonsense could happen easily. I hate playing elite playoff teams in the final games of seasons. 

 

Examples of meaningless season finale wins:

1994: Beat the Rams 24-21, finished 3-13 instead of 2-14

 

1995: Won 3 of our last 4, to go from 3-9, to 6-10.

 

1998: Went 5-2 after starting 1-8 to finish the season, including 5 straight wins. 

 

2000: Won season finale. 

 

2001: after 0-5 start, they went on 8-3 run, including back to back wins to wrap up season.

 

2002: 5-9 after my birthday, back to back wins to screw up slotting.

 

2004: 4-9, won 2 of their final 3 to ruin slotting.

 

2017: 5-8, win 2 of their final 3 to wreck slotting. 

 

2021: Win season finale

 

2022: Win season finale. 

 

Norv turner was the king of it, but it's been a problem, I didn't check which games were against playoff teams, but you can see, for instance, this late season winning of pointless games happened in 3 of the past 6 seasons. 

 

I think the Cowboys game is every bit as dangerous as the Jets game. Send off for Ron, playing potentially backups for a half, nothing at stake other than staying healthy for Cowboys? That's a high risk game. We need to lose the Jets and Rams games simply to protect us from the damage that game could do (in my opinion anyway). The jets having QB's this putrid is just franchise malfeasance on a scale I've never seen before. 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, The Consigliere said:

Getting that mental make up, processing piece is so huge. I would love to know how and why Stroud slipped through the cracks, and Bryce jumped ahead of him. What did the S2 overrate for Young and undersell for Stroud because when you look at them, it's NIGHT AND DAY. I'm just listening to Bill Simmons podcast today, and I don't agree w/the guy pretty much 50% of the time, but just listening to them talk about Zion in particular, Ja to a lesser extent, and then Halliburton (who was beloved on the Wizards board before that draft, and us passing on him lead to much gnashing of teeth, fully justified in retrospect), and the talk about Zion basically clearly devolving into a lazy ----, out of shape, clearly dgaf athlete is a huge problem. Nothing can be perfect, but you'd like to think interviews, background checks, mental make up grades could help evaluate guys for risks they'd behave as moronically as Ja has, or be so disinterested in playing the game as Zion appears to be. With Quarterbacks this seems so so so much harder. Are they first in, last out, are they doing what Puca apparently was in LA (the only guy to come in and demand entry into the coaches+only serious players "tape reviews" meeting at 4am in the offseason) with the Rams? I don't know what makes Stroud that good. Is he like that or is he just so freaking good at the physical? Does he have a brilliant spatial awareness IQ? I have no idea. But nailing down whether this player can lead guys quietly or loudly, whether this guy loves to work, whether this guy has the tools is just a monstrously difficult task. We really need to know how Howell, Caleb, Drake, and Jayden (and next years group) look w/regards to this. Its critical. 

 

Agree.  Dissect these guys like there is no tomorrow ditto Howell.  

 

Standig below

 

 

[The Rook]

I just wish the Commanders could lose to the Giants again this year.  You know they would if they had the chance.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Rook

[The Consigliere]

6 hours ago, method man said:

You can’t keep Howell if you take a QB. As others have pointed out, it sets things up for a QB controversy. I would rather get a haul for Daniels than draft him and replace Howell

You can keep Howell or trade him. The Cardinals did this with Rosen, the Eagles with Wentz (hell the Colts suckered us). Green Bay used to do this on the regular twenty years ago, they flipped 2 or 3 QB's in like 7 years because they had Favre and then Rodgers, I think Seattle did it too. 2 great QB's is better than 0 or 1. It's the most valuable commodity in the NFL, and teams can't really lowball you because of how valuable the asset is. 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

We could probably get a 2nd for Howell. If we pick 2nd or 3rd and get an QB and trade Howell we would likely be in the market for a veteran backup QB. Not sure who would still be available in May to bring in. 
 

IF we went that route I’d hope we’d have brought in a premier FA OL piece and then use our various 2nds to either trade back up for an OL or hit it several times in R2-4. 
 

trade Allen and Howell for 2’s and have 4 2nds to play with if we draft a QB in R1. 
 

That said, I’d still prefer to use that pick as draft capital and accumulate picks. Roll with Howell another year and go back to QB in 2025 if things fall apart with Howell behind a rebuilt offense. 

Edited December 8, 2023 by JamesMadisonSkins

[Rufus T Firefly]

5 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

At the absolute worst he's the backup.  If they draft a guy and that guy isn't ready, he can play.  If that guy is ready, he is the backup.  

 

The only way he's not here is if somebody offers to trade for him to make him a starter, and in that case, we'd probably get a 2nd round pick back for him.

 

There is zero reason we'd ever cut him.  

If we end up top 3 and QB becomes a key part of the conversation, it sets up a couple of months of conversation I will personally find hysterical on this board. 

 

We will have a bunch of people who are claiming that Howell is too good for us to consider drafting a top of the draft QB, while simultaneously telling us no team would give more than a 2nd round pick for Howell if we deal him. 

 

Eventually I am sure I will become tired of it, but for a while it will amuse me greatly. 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Something like this: Trade Howell to Bucs for a 2nd. Trade Allen to Bills (or whoever, Idk who needs a DT) for a 2nd.

 

[KDawg]

6 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

If we end up top 3 and QB becomes a key part of the conversation, it sets up a couple of months of conversation I will personally find hysterical on this board. 

 

We will have a bunch of people who are claiming that Howell is too good for us to consider drafting a top of the draft QB, while simultaneously telling us no team would give more than a 2nd round pick for Howell if we deal him. 

 

Eventually I am sure I will become tired of it, but for a while it will amuse me greatly. 

I actually think this is a misread of a vast majority of the opinions on the forum.

 

It's not, necessarily, that Howell is too good to draft a quarterback. It's that the rest of the team is so bad that there may be better ways to manage the assets in the draft than drafting a quarterback, which is allowed because we have a competent quarterback in Howell.

 

That may be a slight nit pick of your stance, but it's where I am.

 

I am unconvinced on Daniels yet, but right now he's the one QB I could really get behind. But I struggle with asset allocation and am not convinced one way or the other yet. 

[SoCalSkins]

3 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I actually think this is a misread of a vast majority of the opinions on the forum.

 

It's not, necessarily, that Howell is too good to draft a quarterback. It's that the rest of the team is so bad that there may be better ways to manage the assets in the draft than drafting a quarterback, which is allowed because we have a competent quarterback in Howell.

 

That may be a slight nit pick of your stance, but it's where I am.

 

I am unconvinced on Daniels yet, but right now he's the one QB I could really get behind. But I struggle with asset allocation and am not convinced one way or the other yet. 

 

The new qb is a bust. Calling it now. 😂 

[Rufus T Firefly]

6 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I actually think this is a misread of a vast majority of the opinions on the forum.

 

It's not, necessarily, that Howell is too good to draft a quarterback. It's that the rest of the team is so bad that there may be better ways to manage the assets in the draft than drafting a quarterback, which is allowed because we have a competent quarterback in Howell.

 

That may be a slight nit pick of your stance, but it's where I am.

 

I am unconvinced on Daniels yet, but right now he's the one QB I could really get behind. But I struggle with asset allocation and am not convinced one way or the other yet. 

It is not. I have no idea what constitutes "majority" opinion, but there are plenty of people who think he's too good to draft another QB. And i have seen enough of this board to know i am in for some pretzel logic about his greatness combined with his lack of trade value. But maybe I'll be surprised. 

 

It's a separate discussion, but if you don't think Howell is a franchise level QB and we are in position to draft someone we think is, that is beyond a no-brainer decision. You don't bypass that opportunity to take a T.. 

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

It is not. I have no idea what constitutes "majority" opinion, but there are plenty of people who think he's too good to draft another QB. And i have seen enough of this board to know i am in for some pretzel logic about his greatness combined with his lack of trade value. But maybe I'll be surprised. 

 

It's a separate discussion, but if you don't think Howell is a franchise level QB and we are in position to draft someone we think is, that is beyond a no-brainer decision. You don't bypass that opportunity to take a T.. 

I think you are really oversimplifying the argument.

 

There are many options other than QB. And yes, if you really feel someone is a franchise level QB and you DON'T feel Howell can be, you draft them. Where my opinion differs is that I am not in love with Williams or Maye's potential. I am trying to figure Daniels out, but right now I think he could be that guy... but I need time to work through that.

 

But if we don't feel like there is a franchise caliber QB, why force that issue? Why not trade back if a QB is on the board and there are teams that do feel that way? Why not take the overall BPA in Harrison Jr (if he declares) if you are in a place and not sold on the QB?

 

Why does a QB being available automatically mean they are franchise level?

 

There are a ton of layers here, most of which have little to do with Howell aside from the fact that he is an adequate quarterback and may be one of the best players at his position on our entire roster. 

 

Having said that, there are many ways to skin the cat including FA, trades and later rounds in the draft. There is so much nuance here it's really hard to nail down a position at this point for me. 

[Rufus T Firefly]

14 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I think you are really oversimplifying the argument.

 

There are many options other than QB. And yes, if you really feel someone is a franchise level QB and you DON'T feel Howell can be, you draft them. Where my opinion differs is that I am not in love with Williams or Maye's potential. I am trying to figure Daniels out, but right now I think he could be that guy... but I need time to work through that.

 

But if we don't feel like there is a franchise caliber QB, why force that issue? Why not trade back if a QB is on the board and there are teams that do feel that way? Why not take the overall BPA in Harrison Jr (if he declares) if you are in a place and not sold on the QB?

 

Why does a QB being available automatically mean they are franchise level?

 

There are a ton of layers here, most of which have little to do with Howell aside from the fact that he is an adequate quarterback and may be one of the best players at his position on our entire roster. 

 

Having said that, there are many ways to skin the cat including FA, trades and later rounds in the draft. There is so much nuance here it's really hard to nail down a position at this point for me. 

I think you're taking this both seriously and personally, when it is meant as neither. Believe me, there will plenty of opportunity to feel insulted by the things I post. You shouldn't have to wait long. 

 

It's also kind of weird that you are accusing me of "misconstruing" people's opinions and then ignoring the qualifier "if" on my statements. I like Williams and Maye more than you, but apart form that, I actually in perfectly in agreement with everything you just said. 

[KDawg]

28 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

I think you're taking this both seriously and personally, when it is meant as neither. Believe me, there will plenty of opportunity to feel insulted by the things I post. You shouldn't have to wait long. 

 

It's also kind of weird that you are accusing me of "misconstruing" people's opinions and then ignoring the qualifier "if" on my statements. I like Williams and Maye more than you, but apart form that, I actually in perfectly in agreement with everything you just said. 

I’m not taking anything personal or serious. Just talking. We’re here to talk, right?

 

im also not accusing you of anything other than thinking your read of the situation felt off from the way I feel the situation… if I’m wrong… that’s okay. It’s happened before. It might happen again but who knows.

[Rufus T Firefly]

19 minutes ago, KDawg said:

im also not accusing you of anything other than thinking your read of the situation felt off from the way I feel the situation… 

So you didn't accuse me of anything apart from the thing I said you accused me of. Thanks for clearing that up. 

 

As an aside, I think "accused" is a word I should avoid because I think people take it to be a major.. accusation of something. 

 

Oh boy, I think my vocabulary is not my friend. 

Edited December 8, 2023 by Rufus T Firefly

[KDawg]

5 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

So you didn't accuse me of untying apart form hr thing I said you accused me of. Thanks for clearing that up. 

 

As an aside, I think "accused" is a word I should avoid because I think people take it to be a major.. accusation of something. 

 

Oh boy, I think my vocabulary is not my friend. 

Are you okay?

[Rufus T Firefly]

3 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Are you okay?

Right now, or in general?

 

Doesn't matter. No. 

 

 

Should probably proof read more. 

Edited December 8, 2023 by Rufus T Firefly

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

Right now, or in general?

 

Doesn't matter. No. 

Well I didn’t intend to add to your stress levels. Hope everything gets better, brother. 

[Rufus T Firefly]

Just now, KDawg said:

Well I didn’t intend to add to your stress levels. Hope everything gets better, brother. 

In terms of stress levels, I'm at like a 1.5. which is mostly due to Christmas. 

 

In football  terms, mostly worried about beating Zach Wilson or a non-motivated Dallas team. 

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

In terms of stress levels, I'm at like a 1.5. which is mostly due to Christmas. 

 

In football  terms, mostly worried about beating Zach Wilson or a non-motivated Dallas team. 

Wouldn’t dwell on it. We’re going to somehow win two games. We all know it.