2024 NFL Draft Position/Tracker - Final Pick #2

[Skinsinparadise]

12 hours ago, kingdaddy said:

I haven't seen Jayden Daniels play a single snap but I just read his stats: 3900 passing yards, 40 TD's, 4 interceptions, 1000 yards rushing and 10 TD's plus he broke Joe Burrow's passing efficiency records? How do we pass on this guy? I could see him going #1 overall come April but if he falls to us we are gonna get offers for sure. Am I off base here?

 

He definitlety can play. 

 

Dudes who can run like him indeed can translate to the NFL if they learn how to get down.  We talk about RG3 but Russell Wilson has had a long career and used his legs plenty, even at 35 he's on pace to run for 400 even at this age.  Alex Smith arguably transformed his career when he started using his legs more in KC. etc.  As for Jayden though he has to learn to stop being reckless when he does run.  He is a throw first QB.  But his running ability is definitely a key part of his game.  He needs to bulk up his upper body IMO.

 

I haven't studied Drake Maye but when watching other players, he jumps out.  Prototype QB size, big arm, and good mobility.  Judging by reporters, the Giants scouts are all over him, they send armies of scouts to watch every one of his games.

 

If they end up picking 2nd-4th.  Not saying they should take a QB.  I don't know.  But I've seen and heard enough to believe this FO will likely study these guys hard versus shrug off these as possibitlies.   But who knows will see after they hire the GM.

 

Tough call IMO.  But for now, I just want that high pick.

Edited December 8, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[cakmoney61]

On 12/5/2023 at 9:19 AM, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

I could live with 6th.

Not if they only win four of seventeen games.  That would be a combination of having a bad team and bad luck, because we would probably have to come out on the short end on tiebreakers.  And would that surprise any of us?  Absolutely not.  It's been this sort of foolishness for most of the last three decades.

[Darrell Green Fan]

9 minutes ago, cakmoney61 said:

Not if they only win four of seventeen games.  That would be a combination of having a bad team and bad luck, because we would probably have to come out on the short end on tiebreakers.  And would that surprise any of us?  Absolutely not.  It's been this sort of foolishness for most of the last three decades.

 

While we all sort of feel this way I'd like to think our karma changed the day Daniel Snyder sold the team.  

[Warhead36]

There is no way were only picking 6th with 4 wins. 

[kingdaddy]

9 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

You also gotta factor in a lot of Daniels's production comes from his ability as a run threat. That will be neutralized somewhat in the NFL, and if he IS a run based QB then that comes with its own host of issues.

Is the Colts Anthony Richardson a fair comp to Daniels, other than Richardson being bigger? Because Richardson can play and was deemed a pretty inaccurate passer coming out of college. 

[cakmoney61]

(Replying to Warhead36's last post)

 

If any team could pull that off (drafting 6th while winning only four games), it would be Washington.  The more likely scenario, however, is them finding a way to win one or two more games.  And if they did, I would hate them forever.  And as a 50-year fan, I would make myself hate them by any means available (hypnosis, brainwashing, exorcism, voodoo, lobotomy, whatever).  This evil hold they have on me will end in 2024!😠

Edited December 8, 2023 by cakmoney61
Added a sentence.

[KDawg]

7 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

Is the Colts Anthony Richardson a fair comp to Daniels, other than Richardson being bigger? Because Richardson can play and was deemed a pretty inaccurate passer coming out of college. 

No.

 

The bigger thing is a big factor...

 

But Richardson is a high upside guy who came in fairly unpolished.

 

Daniels is a better prospect in almost every way except for frame... Which is usually due to injury, but Anthony Richardson is hurt fairly routinely despite the larger frame.

 

And Daniels isn't exactly small. He looks small, but he's still 205 pounds, so it's not like he's 32 pounds like Forbes is. 

 

I really like him as a prospect. He's climbing my personal rankings. I have him ahead of Maye now.

[Riggo#44]

17 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I have him ahead of Maye now.

 

May teams like the Raiders, Falcons, Saints, Titans, Bucs, and Seahawks all feel the same way...

[JamesMadisonSkins]

9 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Isn’t there a draft order prediction machine thing out there?  I tried to find it but I can’t.

 

@JamesMadisonSkins didn't you say there was one? Or am I making that up.

 

Of there isn’t one, we need to build one.   

 

ESPN and Playoff Predictor allow you to play out the season but it reflects playoffs and final conference standings, not draft order. So it takes some level of manual manipulation to get the draft order based on the results. 

[kingdaddy]

46 minutes ago, cakmoney61 said:

(Replying to Warhead36's last post)

 

If any team could pull that off (drafting 6th while winning only four games), it would be Washington.  The more likely scenario, however, is them finding a way to win one or two more games.  And if they did, I would hate them forever.  And as a 50-year fan, I would make myself hate them by any means available (hypnosis, brainwashing, exorcism, voodoo, lobotomy, whatever).  This evil hold they have on me will end in 2024!😠

Don't bail....this is going to be the greatest off-season in ES history and a very exciting off-season for the franchise. We have cap money, will have a new GM and head coach and will be involved in tons of rumors regarding our draft position. The witch is dead and good times are ahead....if we can live long enough. 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Here's the playoff machine breakdown (from me) based on Jets/Commanders dual scenarios:

 

Commanders Lose:

1. Panthers (Bears): 1-16 (.525)

2. Giants: 4-13 (.519)

3. Patriots: 4-13 (.524)*

4. Commanders: 4-13 (.524)*

5. Titans: 4-13 (.537)

6. Cardinals: 4-13 (.558)

7. Jets: 5-12 (.517)

*Not sure who gets the tie-breaker here between Patriots and Commanders

 

Commanders Win:

1. Panthers (Bears): 1-16 (.525)

2. Jets: 4-13 (.517)

3. Giants: 4-13 (.519)

4. Patriots: 4-13 (.524)

5. Titans: 4-13 (.537)

6. Cardinals: 4-13 (.558)

7. Commanders: 5-12 (.524)

 

So it's pretty safe to say if we go 5-12 we SHOULD be picking no lower than #7. If we lose out, then we are looking at potentially being as high as #3, MAYBE #2 ... depending on tie-breakers and SoS

Edited December 8, 2023 by JamesMadisonSkins

[Riggo#44]

Patriots really effed themselves winning last night 

[method man]

If you guys recall, Roseman made Pederson sit Hurts in the second half against us in 2020 to preserve their pick, which they parlayed into a ton of assets down the line. Roseman knew he was going to fire Pederson. Similarly, Harris should make Rivera start sitting folks for the last 2 games

[Darrell Green Fan]

I'm convinced a LT with their first pick will not be good value, there just isn't a left tackle in this draft that I see as elite. And this team needs elite players as we have discussed. I'm warming to Daniels after looking at him harder.  As much as I was encouraged with Howell at times I just don't ever see him as a guy who can take a team to the playoffs by himself.  QBs who are not top 10 tend to fade in January.  But man a choice between any of the 3 QBs and Harrison would be a great situation. They absolutely must lose out.  

 

I know it's premature but if they do take a QB what do they do with Sam Howell?  I would keep him, at least you have a viable backup as well as insurance should the pick not work out.  But wondering what his value around the league would be.  A 2nd?  I have no idea. 

[method man]

1 minute ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

I'm convinced a LT with their first pick will not be good value, there just isn't a left tackle in this draft that I see as elite. And this team needs elite players as we have discussed. I'm warming to Daniels after looking at him harder.  As much as I was encouraged with Howell at times I just don't ever see him as a guy who can take a team to the playoffs by himself.  QBs who are not top 10 tend to fade in January.  But man a choice between any of the 3 QBs and Harrison would be a great situation. They absolutely must lose out.  

 

I know it's premature but if they do take a QB what do they do with Sam Howell?  I would keep him, at least you have a viable backup as well as insurance should the pick not work out.  But wondering what his value around the league would be.  A 2nd?  I have no idea. 

You can’t keep Howell if you take a QB. As others have pointed out, it sets things up for a QB controversy. I would rather get a haul for Daniels than draft him and replace Howell

[Darrell Green Fan]

11 minutes ago, method man said:

You can’t keep Howell if you take a QB. As others have pointed out, it sets things up for a QB controversy. I would rather get a haul for Daniels than draft him and replace Howell

 

Yeah I was wondering about that.  But keeping Howell IMO limits their upside, I don't think too many people around the league consider Sam Howell a potential franchise QB but I could be wrong.  I like Howell but he won't grown, maybe he can cure his years long habit of holding the ball too long.  Maybe.  

Edited December 8, 2023 by Darrell Green Fan

[Llevron]

23 minutes ago, method man said:

If you guys recall, Roseman made Pederson sit Hurts in the second half against us in 2020 to preserve their pick, which they parlayed into a ton of assets down the line. Roseman knew he was going to fire Pederson. Similarly, Harris should make Rivera start sitting folks for the last 2 games

 

I 10000% agree with this 

[Darrell Green Fan]

1 minute ago, Llevron said:

 

I 10000% agree with this 

 

it's one thing to have the GM order it, another if it's the owner who would appear to be meddling in football operations. But yeah I'd like to see it too.  

[Warhead36]

If we draft a QB I see us keeping Howell as a placeholder who also has some upside of his own. Think the Chargers who kept Brees after drafting Rivers. Brees broke out and left as a FA, but Howell has two years left on his deal so if he plays well in 2024, we could trade him and get some real good value. 

 

And besides, after being in the QB wasteland for most of the last 30+ years, there are worse things to have then two quality QBs. 

[Voice_of_Reason]

1 hour ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

*Not sure who gets the tie-breaker here between Patriots and Commanders

We played them and won so I assume they would get the tie-breaker.  I think Head-to-Head factors in somehow, someway.  Though, who knows, the NFL rules are wackadoodle.

 

25 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

If we draft a QB I see us keeping Howell as a placeholder who also has some upside of his own. Think the Chargers who kept Brees after drafting Rivers. Brees broke out and left as a FA, but Howell has two years left on his deal so if he plays well in 2024, we could trade him and get some real good value. 

 

And besides, after being in the QB wasteland for most of the last 30+ years, there are worse things to have then two quality QBs. 

There is literally no way Howell is not on the team next year.  He costs virtually zero and under contract for 2 more years.  

 

At the absolute worst he's the backup.  If they draft a guy and that guy isn't ready, he can play.  If that guy is ready, he is the backup.  

 

The only way he's not here is if somebody offers to trade for him to make him a starter, and in that case, we'd probably get a 2nd round pick back for him.

 

There is zero reason we'd ever cut him.  

[Skinsinparadise]

1 minute ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

We played them and won so I assume they would get the tie-breaker.  I think Head-to-Head factors in somehow, someway.  Though, who knows, the NFL rules are wackadoodle.

 

 

Only if the SOS is exactly the same

[Panninho]

 

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

48 minutes ago, method man said:

You can’t keep Howell if you take a QB. As others have pointed out, it sets things up for a QB controversy. I would rather get a haul for Daniels than draft him and replace Howell

Howell is a 5th round pick who has had a good but not great season.  He's going to be here no matter what.  If you like a QB better, you pick him independent of anything else. 

 

When the Chargers selected (first Eli and then) Rivers, Brees was on the roster as a second round pick who they didn't think was good enough.  But he won the job in training camp and started the next year.  (In the mean time, I think Rivers fathered 2 or 3 children.)  

 

Then Brees left to go to the Saints and Rivers took over.

 

It is what it is.  You take the guy you like.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

8 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

We played them and won so I assume they would get the tie-breaker.  I think Head-to-Head factors in somehow, someway.  Though, who knows, the NFL rules are wackadoodle.

 

Okay, this makes a ton of sense. So we need the Patriots to get to 5 wins to leapfrog them in any case, which seems incredibly unlikely even with last night's results.

Edited December 8, 2023 by JamesMadisonSkins

[Voice_of_Reason]

4 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Only if the SOS is exactly the same

Which in @JamesMadisonSkins scenario above it was at .524

 

NOTE: I didn't check his math on the SOS.  I'm assuming he is right, because when has he ever been wrong?

Edited December 8, 2023 by Voice_of_Reason