2024 NFL Draft Position/Tracker - Final Pick #2

[Skintime]

3 hours ago, illone said:

 

Yea, another weird L on his resume. How do you lose to UVA? That team was a dumpster fire... Could argue they were looking ahead to Georgia Tech, but they lost that game too.

UNC's defense was like the skins

[RabidFan]

Re trading up, the draft trade value chart has the 1st overall pick at 3,000 points and our 2nd pick at 2,600 points.  That's a 400 point delta.  Our picks at 36 and 40 are worth 540 and 500 respectively.  So a fair slight overpay would just be giving one of our 2nd rounders this draft.  OFC inside the top 3 prob throws sanity of the chart out the window and especially if people come up from picks 5-10 in what they'd have to give up to the Bears.

 

An example is the Giants who are at #6 but their entire draft value is 2,910 points (includes two 2nd rounders and one pick per other rounds except none in the 7th).  So the value drops quickly.  But as most are saying if the Bears are going to trade down they won't go to us but prefer a bigger Haul.

[SoCalSkins]

3 hours ago, Ball Security said:

My point is that Chicago is in the perfect position to play NE and Was off each other (especially if the consensus is that there is some distance between Daniels and Williams/Maye.

 

I don’t think a simple price of a second rounder gets it done.

 

All that said, my money would be on Chicago drafting Williams.

 

 

They can also trade with us prior to the draft since it’s the top pick. Then they can trade our pick to New England. Chicago ends up with a pair of twos and marvin harrison. But I doubt they stick with Fields 

[Darrell Green Fan]

23 minutes ago, RabidFan said:

Re trading up, the draft trade value chart has the 1st overall pick at 3,000 points and our 2nd pick at 2,600 points.  That's a 400 point delta.  Our picks at 36 and 40 are worth 540 and 500 respectively.  So a fair slight overpay would just be giving one of our 2nd rounders this draft.  OFC inside the top 3 prob throws sanity of the chart out the window and especially if people come up from picks 5-10 in what they'd have to give up to the Bears.

 

An example is the Giants who are at #6 but their entire draft value is 2,910 points (includes two 2nd rounders and one pick per other rounds except none in the 7th).  So the value drops quickly.  But as most are saying if the Bears are going to trade down they won't go to us but prefer a bigger Haul.

 Given all the good/great players in the league taken after the first half of the first round those numbers surprise me.  The first pick is worth 2600 points and the 40th pick is worth 500 just sounds so off to me.   I would certainly rather have 5 early second round picks than 1 pick at #2. But they know I guess

Edited January 10 by Darrell Green Fan

[GhostofSparta]

1 hour ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

 Given all the good/great players in the league taken after the first half of the first round those numbers surprise me.  The first pick is worth 2600 points and the 40th pick is worth 500 just sounds so off to me.   I would certainly rather have 5 early second round picks than 1 pick at #2. But they know I guess

So you have to look at a couple of things that drive up the value of 1st round picks, especially high ones:

 

1. The rookie salary cap means that, since Sam Bradford, a top 5 pick will no longer cripple your cap the way it would in the past. Getting those high picks at a reasonable price AND with a much lower rate of hold outs (each slot has a set amount with not much wiggle room, usually issues only creep up with the guaranteed amount) helps make them much more valuable to hold on to, especially since...

 

2. 1st round picks come with a 5th year option. That goes away after round 1. So you can have the first 5 picks in round 2, but that just means that after 4 years all of those picks come due for contracts at the same time. So either you have to play the long game with your cap money if you want to keep them all, you know in advance that you'll have to let some of those guys walk, or you end up hoping that some of those guys picked 33-40 end up being busts to make the decision easier.

 

You see a lot of teams trade from high 2nd round back into the end of round 1 just to get that bonus year option, especially spots like QB where you might need that year to make the call or settle future cap money or RB where you can use that 5th year (and maybe a 6th with the Franchise Tag) to keep a good RB on your roster juuuuuuuuuuust long enough to let some 2nd team make that 2nd contract mistake.

[skinsarethebest]

How much input can Caleb actually have on Chicago’s decision?  This may be wishful thinking but what if he really sends out signals of not wanting to play for the Bears and preferring the Skins….  Perhaps it would only add to his reputational issues but since the Commanders are literally so close to being in position to draft him, it might be tempting for him?…

[illone]

1 hour ago, skinsarethebest said:

How much input can Caleb actually have on Chicago’s decision?  This may be wishful thinking but what if he really sends out signals of not wanting to play for the Bears and preferring the Skins….  Perhaps it would only add to his reputational issues but since the Commanders are literally so close to being in position to draft him, it might be tempting for him?…

 

 

It worked for Eli.

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/eli-manning-finally-reveals-why-he-refused-to-play-for-chargers-after-they-took-him-with-the-top-pick-in-2004/

[Dark Acre]

6 hours ago, RabidFan said:

Re trading up, the draft trade value chart has the 1st overall pick at 3,000 points and our 2nd pick at 2,600 points.  That's a 400 point delta.  Our picks at 36 and 40 are worth 540 and 500 respectively.  So a fair slight overpay would just be giving one of our 2nd rounders this draft.  OFC inside the top 3 prob throws sanity of the chart out the window and especially if people come up from picks 5-10 in what they'd have to give up to the Bears.

 

An example is the Giants who are at #6 but their entire draft value is 2,910 points (includes two 2nd rounders and one pick per other rounds except none in the 7th).  So the value drops quickly.  But as most are saying if the Bears are going to trade down they won't go to us but prefer a bigger Haul.

The draft trade value chart is nearly useless.  It fails to account for the difference in the available players.

[BurgundyBooger]

3 hours ago, skinsarethebest said:

How much input can Caleb actually have on Chicago’s decision?  This may be wishful thinking but what if he really sends out signals of not wanting to play for the Bears and preferring the Skins….  Perhaps it would only add to his reputational issues but since the Commanders are literally so close to being in position to draft him, it might be tempting for him?…

That would put a dent on the value of the #1 pick because no one would trade Chi for it if their intention to do so was to grab CW. I’d assume that hit to the #1 pick would upset the Bears more than CW’s supposed preference to play elsewhere.

Edited January 10 by BurgundyBooger

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

All along, I just haven’t had the warm and fuzzies for Maye, but went back and watched some tape and read up on him, as some of our respected posters here think very highly of him.

 

But I just can’t help not loving how he played down the stretch of the season.  I don’t see many anticipation throws.  

At this point, I just want to select whoever Adam Peters and Ben Johnson decide is best to develop for this franchise.
 

 

[Darrell Green Fan]

8 hours ago, GhostofSparta said:

So you have to look at a couple of things that drive up the value of 1st round picks, especially high ones:

 

1. The rookie salary cap means that, since Sam Bradford, a top 5 pick will no longer cripple your cap the way it would in the past. Getting those high picks at a reasonable price AND with a much lower rate of hold outs (each slot has a set amount with not much wiggle room, usually issues only creep up with the guaranteed amount) helps make them much more valuable to hold on to, especially since...

 

2. 1st round picks come with a 5th year option. That goes away after round 1. So you can have the first 5 picks in round 2, but that just means that after 4 years all of those picks come due for contracts at the same time. So either you have to play the long game with your cap money if you want to keep them all, you know in advance that you'll have to let some of those guys walk, or you end up hoping that some of those guys picked 33-40 end up being busts to make the decision easier.

 

You see a lot of teams trade from high 2nd round back into the end of round 1 just to get that bonus year option, especially spots like QB where you might need that year to make the call or settle future cap money or RB where you can use that 5th year (and maybe a 6th with the Franchise Tag) to keep a good RB on your roster juuuuuuuuuuust long enough to let some 2nd team make that 2nd contract mistake.

Great explanation, thanks.  But I always thought Jimmy Johnson created this to measure the value of the pick, not sure it went so far as factoring in the 5th year option but I could be wrong.

 

I'd still take 5 high 2nd rounders even without the 5th year option.  Especially now that teams are forced to sign their franchise QB to big deals before that 5th year.

Edited January 10 by Darrell Green Fan

[KDawg]

1 hour ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

All along, I just haven’t had the warm and fuzzies for Maye, but went back and watched some tape and read up on him, as some of our respected posters here think very highly of him.

 

But I just can’t help not loving how he played down the stretch of the season.  I don’t see many anticipation throws.  

At this point, I just want to select whoever Adam Peters and Ben Johnson decide is best to develop for this franchise.
 

 

So, watching him more I think it's less "not many anticipation throws" and more his mechanics not lining up with his throws.

 

He doesn't throw very often at the top of his drop. The routes and his throws don't often time up. If you watch, you can see his receivers break where they should and (not all the time) have the required separation, but his mechanics have him drifting and not releasing at the top of a standard drop. 

 

He takes a split second longer to get there, so it looks like he's not reading coverages.

 

It's a mechanical issue. His mechanics stink.

 

Sounds weird, but that's semi reassuring. That can be fixed.

 

Am I sure it will be? Absolutely not. Sometimes these guys develop bad habits and their college coaches have tried to break them and just couldn't. Or they knew they should but it was working well enough and they didn't want to break him in the 2-3 years he'd be starting for them.

[actorguy1]

 

 

[No Nonsense]

The Bears keeping Eberflus is potentially huge for Washington in their pursuit for Caleb Williams. Marvin Harrison Jr is definitely in play for the number one pick. 

[mhd24]

Just now, No Nonsense said:

The Bears keeping Eberflus is potentially huge for Washington in their pursuit for Caleb Williams. Marvin Harrison Jr is definitely in play for the number one pick. 

Nah, they are taking Caleb/Maye.   Fields wasn't even a pick by their regime (he was picked by the previous HC and GM).  It also saves them a ton of money by resetting the QB position at the rookie contract scale.

[RandyHolt]

Call me crazy but I am intrigued at Harrison and nabbing a QB later. Isn't Harrison rated the 2nd best prospect in the draft by some/many plus some posters here late this year were saying we need an alpha WR to compete. Or if the new GM hates the remaining QBs defer as long as they think there is hope for Howell. Or, grab Penix Nix or Pratt later on. Nab an LT in round 2. Go WR LT QB. What are the odds one of the "top" QBs ends up NOT being the top QB in his class.  I think its gotta be higher than I'd like to know. Call me crazier but dare I there is a chance our new regime actually thinks Sam still has promise. Maybe the new brass got to see Sam pick apart their defense first hand, or simply saw EB and OL suuuuuuucked.

 

 

Edited January 10 by RandyHolt

[DiscoBob]

5 minutes ago, RandyHolt said:

Call me crazy.... Call me crazier...

 

You are crazy and crazier

[Command The 414]

6 minutes ago, RandyHolt said:

Call me crazy but I am intrigued at Harrison 

 

 

I love Harrison too but not at the expense of possibility getting a QB, the Bears would be very smart imho doing exactly the above as you stated, Fields with a improved OL and weapons like Harrison & Moore would be even more dangerous, but we don’t have that luxury to pass at a QB, (dare to even say if it wouldn’t pan out similar to Heath Shuler) got to try at least to get our QB W/the #2

[kingdaddy]

5 minutes ago, RandyHolt said:

What are the odds one of the "top" QBs ends up NOT being the top QB in his class. 

This is the million dollar question...

A). stand pat and take a QB

B). stand pat and take Harrison Jr.

C). trade back for a nice haul of future draft picks and get your QB later in round one or round 2

D). trade up to take Caleb Williams

The odds are not great that Williams or Maye will be a future HOF or Super Bowl winning QB but some would say they are better odds than waiting and drafting a QB later. Our new front office is gonna have to make the call. I am leaning on trading back and taking one of the less highly touted QB's later in round one or in round 2, if they grade out to potentially having a bright NFL future. I want more 1st round picks to play with moving forward. 

[RandyHolt]

8 minutes ago, DiscoBob said:

 

You are crazy and crazier

Thank you very little. We see top picks flop every year yet those that said they ARE a top pick are never called crazy. Not only that, they should seek a career change far more often than they do.

 

Yet we sheep keep blindly following the experts who have a lower % of their picks hitting than Ron's win %.

[Command The 414]

1 hour ago, actorguy1 said:

 

 

And with the 1st pick in the 2024 NFL Draft the Chicago Bears select WR Ohio State Marvin Harrison Jr….

 

and 1 minute later we will be drafting Caleb Williams 

 

just my opinion but I’m probably wrong 

Edited January 10 by Command The 414

[Bifflog]

1 minute ago, RandyHolt said:

Thank you very little. We see top picks flop every year yet those that said they ARE a top pick are never called crazy. Not only that, they should seek a career change far more often than they do.

 

Yet we sheep keep blindly following the experts who have a lower % of their picks hitting than Ron's win %.

 

High end top pick QB's that crap out are remembered, and the much (much) more frequent pile of later round selections that amount to nothing are almost immediately forgotten.

[Inigo Montoya]

The QB position isn't just the most important in football, it might be the most important position in all of sports... we finally have a natural way to draft 1 of the 2 best QBs in a class with 3 top potential options and we want to trade it away? We don't need more chances to pick the forbes and youngs and davis's of the world... we need a potential game changer signal caller. 

No need to get cute here, throw every football front office resource at vetting these kids and rank your best 2, you're getting one of them. 

Also, kind of feels like these two 2024 draft threads should be merged at this point right? 

[Command The 414]

2 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

The QB position isn't just the most important in football, it might be the most important position in all of sports... we finally have a natural way to draft 1 of the 2 best QBs in a class with 3 top potential options and we want to trade it away? We don't need more chances to pick the forbes and youngs and davis's of the world... we need a potential game changer signal caller. 

No need to get cute here, throw every football front office resource at vetting these kids and rank your best 2, you're getting one of them. 

Totally Agree and we could say we didn’t take advantage of the same situation w/Young over Herbert ….let’s not mess this up twice, heck even if it doesn’t pan out as expected 

[Curtisp5286]

14 hours ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

 Given all the good/great players in the league taken after the first half of the first round those numbers surprise me.  The first pick is worth 2600 points and the 40th pick is worth 500 just sounds so off to me.   I would certainly rather have 5 early second round picks than 1 pick at #2. But they know I guess

No.  The chart is kind of trash in general.

 

The thing about it is the value of QBs and top QB prospects.  If you need a QB would you rather have one high end top of the draft QB prospect, or 5 early 2nd round QB prospects?

 

If you are going to draft and edge rusher or WR at #2, then yes, the chart isn’t good, but if you are drafting a QB it makes more sense.