2024 NFL Draft Position/Tracker - Final Pick #2

[Fred Jones]

3 minutes ago, ThatNFLChick said:

 

Huh? Those were his stats BEFORE going to LSU. In 2023 at LSU his completion percentage was 72.2%

Relax, I didn't look up his numbers, just replying to the post.  Why don't you post the correct 2023 numbers, or better yet, post the last couple of seasons to complare.

 

And, like every QB coming to the NFL, can the guy consistenly and quickly read NFL defenses throughout the season as defenses adjust.

[clskinsfan]

Just now, ThatNFLChick said:

 

If we're talking about middle of the field....

 

 

Maybe I need to go watch more tape. But that is not what I saw in the games I watched. I saw a QB who clearly worked on staying in pocket longer. But who still missed wide open receivers far too often. 

[ThatNFLChick]

Whomever the GM and HC decide I will support. Interestingly enough I think Daniels will shoot up draft boards after the combine and Williams may fall after interviews. I do think Maye is the safest but also has the lowest ceiling. 

[Fred Jones]

We have three plus months of debate ahead of us.

[mac8887]

45 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Literally nothing you said here has anything to do with the discussion and fact that Daniels is a one year wonder. 

Daniels played in the toughest conference in college football, against the toughest defenses in college football an put up madden numbers. Yes he did have a wonderful year.  But even the year before he played well enough to get a 3rd or 4th round grade.

 

On top of that, in his first year playing at asu people were already raving about his potential.

 

You act like he was some nobody though even last year people knew he was talented enough to play in the league. I'd use his 3rd or 4th round grade to justify this position.

 

People knew the talent was already their with him, and he just needed to put it all together, which it seems judging by his ridiculous numbers+his heisman that he did put it all together

 

Yes he had an amazing year. Was it a wonderful year compared to the rest he played? Yes. But was he a one year wonder? I'd say no based on the 3rd or 4th round grade coming into the year.

 

Plus I'd rather draft a meteoric riser over someone who has stagnated or regressed their last year of college. At least you already know the guy is improving.

 

 

Edited January 8 by mac8887

[clskinsfan]

Just now, Fred Jones said:

We have three plus months of debate ahead of us.

Gonna be a long 3 months

[MartinC]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Gonna be a long 3 months

 

It cant be any longer than this last season seemed to go on for. The last 5 games really dragged - just not enjoyable at all.

[The Consigliere]

13 hours ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

Yes, it’s been a hell of a few months.

I'm definitely guilty of the same thing, mostly because, lets be straight here, when this team has sucked historically they've tended to blunt the suck with late season wins. Indeed out of all those god awful years since 1993, there's only been a handful that it either didn't happen at all, or we managed to basically win at a similar rate to the rest of the year.  wrote about this a few weeks ago, so I'm just going off memory but off the top of my head, during apocalyptically bad seasons, we only sucked through the finish line in '93, '94, '03, '11, '13, '14, '19 and this year. Unfortunately for us, we didn't go after QB in the QB rich '04 class, and got the wrong guy in the '12 class, and didn't go QB in '20. 

 

When I was looking at our schedule, the only positive I could see back in October was that we ended with a litany of great defenses, which would be a nice test for Howell (Dallas twice, NYJ, SF and declining but still strong pass rush Rams, and then Miami's solid D). My concern was that Dallas and SF might not need their games, and NYJ and the Rams might be tanking. Luckily for us, all those factors ended up playing out well for us other than the Jets because Philly imploded, and SF still needed to wrap up home field, so SF and Dallas needed wins and the Jets last minute drive saved us from ourselves. 

 

I had us at a floor of 4 wins, and a ceiling of 7.5-8 before the season and an expectation of 5 or 6 wins. After the comeback wins in September I 100% thought there wasn't any hope for a top 4 pick, we were basically perpetually 2 games ahead of all those teams in wins up until around the Thanksgiving massacre, and at that point I guess we climbed into the top 4-5. But before then my objective was locking a top 11 or so pick in October, and top 7 by November, preying for a top 5 locked in by December (guaranteed a QB, one of the two tackles or MHJR). But honestly, I never saw 2 as possible, even remotely.

 

The reason's pretty simple, even with our tough schedule, we would still need New England, Chicago, Arizona, and NYG to run off a series of wins with nothing to play for. Post Sweat trade, I argued the Bears would bag the wins, and would finish with probably 6-7 wins, but catching NE, and Arizona, was totally impossible, and the Giants would require us to be sweat and for them to bag at least one more beyond that. That all of that happened remains stunning. 

 

Arizona won 3 of their last 8 (and 2 of their last 5) including a road last second TD at Philly to beat them. What were the chances of that happening? But it did. 

 

New England won 2 of their last 5, and crucially for our pleasure, lost a tight one to the Giants in December and speaking of the Giants.....

 

They went 4-3 in their last 7, and were close to going 5-2 (1 point loss to the Rams). 

 

And then there's us, we needed to lose out starting with Thanksgiving (and that Seattle game before it) and we nearly did the deed until horrendously stumbling and beating the Jets until we folded like lawn chairs to a JETS!?!?! Final minute drive to grab defeat from the jaws of victory. 

 

When you think about everything that had to happen, and that it all did? WOW!!! It's been miraculous. 

 

Back around Halloween I would have given us a 5% of top 2, after the Thanksgiving Day Massacre, maybe a 10%, after the Rams and Dolphins losses, maybe 20%, but we still needed all our opponents to be incentivized down the stretch and for the Patriots, and Cardinals to pull off late season wins, and all of that happened. Just crazy. 

[The Consigliere]

13 hours ago, ThatNFLChick said:

So are most agreeing with this?

 

Williams - Ceiling is Patrock Mahomes

Maye - Ceiling is Josh Allen or Justin Herbert?

Daniels - Ceiling is Lamar Jackson

 

 

Pretty much.

 

I suspect our board is:

1.Williams

2. Maye

3. Daniels

 

I'm curious if Daniels blows peoples minds at the combine/pro day (workouts) and in interviews, if that actually moves the needle. I was surprised to see that tweet from Breer that suggested that basically, the only guys Maye isn't ahead of from the '21, '22, '23, and '24 classes are Lawrence and Williams. It's not that I think the other guys from '21 were studs, I had that as a 2 top QB draft (Lawrence and Fields) with one high risk/high reward guy (Lance) and 1 high floor, low ceiling guy (Jones), the '22 class was straight garbage, Pickett was always a 2nd-3rd round prospect at best (and I had Willis, Howell, and Corral all ahead of him), but I do find it interesting that they also think Maye is/was 100% ahead of Young, Stroud, and Richardson too, and seemingly clearly ahead of Daniels.

 

That's a lot of respect, the '21 and '23 and '24 classes are all pretty top heavy in talent, '21 had 4 first round guys and bust in waiting Wilson (who I think had a 1st round grade from almost everyone, just not a top 2 grade), '23 had 3, and '24 has another 4 or 5. That's pretty damn impressive.

 

The only things that matter to me between now and the draft in terms of finding things out about the prospects:

#1: Processing ability

#2: Ability to make all the throws-Check (already good for all 3 of those guys)

#3: First in, last out mentality with practice (Nacua established a new standard for this over the summer apparently joining the 4am crew of tape geeks that included Cooper Kupp, McVay and an OC if memory serves. Wish I knew about that before my rookie drafts). 

#4: Mental Make up Grade Corollary to #3 (Is he a leader? Do players enjoy playing for him. Can he be go to guy, regardless of his approach? Is he healthy psychologically? First in, last  out etc). 

#5: Medicals

 

Am working under the assumption it will be Drake Maye barring surprises in March. 

 

The bigger win for us is that we went from a 7th-11th slot for the rest of our picks in the draft, to a rotating 2nd, 3rd or 4th pick of each round after round 1. That means basically 5 top 102 picks, and 4 top 70 picks (3 top 41ish?). 

 

That's a lot of ammo on day 2 and early day 3. Hopefully we don't blow it on Nate Stimson and Lloyd Harrison types like in 1999 and 2000. 

Edited January 8 by The Consigliere

[NickyJ]

25 minutes ago, MartinC said:

 

It cant be any longer than this last season seemed to go on for. The last 5 games really dragged - just not enjoyable at all.

It was long, but I can still call it enjoyable. The last 5 games went exactly how I was cheering for them to go. It felt exhilarating to get what I wanted.

[Chris 44]

52 minutes ago, MartinC said:

 

It cant be any longer than this last season seemed to go on for. The last 5 games really dragged - just not enjoyable at all.

I dont know, I kind of enjoy my fingernails being pulled out one at a time, slowly, while having salt poured on them.

[The Consigliere]

6 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

you don't see players acknowledging the value of a higher pick typically

 

 

 

Worth noting how close things were. Consider these key results:

Cardinals upset Eagles a few weeks ago.

We give up game winning drive to the vaunted Jets with mere seconds remaining.

 

Those results change up & we are picking 5th instead. It's not that dramatic, but that would put us at 5th, 37th, 69th, and 105th instead of 2nd, 36th, 67th and 102nd. 

 

The scarier scenario is if we won that Jets game, and the Seattle game, both of which were pretty much the same: Howell lead game winning or tying drives, and the defense turned around and gifted wins to Seattle and NYJ in the closing seconds. 

 

That is the real big drop, add NYJ and Seattle wins, and then we fall to:

7th, 38th, 71st, 106th, instead of 2nd, 36th, 67th, and 102nd. 

 

Loving the slotting. Now lets just use it well. 

[Warhead36]

I just wish Daniels were 21, not already 23. 
 

Maye is still my go to. 

[Renegade7]

1 hour ago, MartinC said:

 

It cant be any longer than this last season seemed to go on for. The last 5 games really dragged - just not enjoyable at all.

 

Facts.

 

There's "building character" as a fan, then there's "straight torture" from a fan perspective..

 

It's one thing to miss games, I'm struggling to remember the last time I outright skipped one like I did the Jets game.

 

When you need a distraction from the distraction, it's not a distraction anymore.

[skinsmania123]

1 hour ago, mac8887 said:

Daniels played in the toughest conference in college football, against the toughest defenses in college football an put up madden numbers. Yes he did have a wonderful year.  But even the year before he played well enough to get a 3rd or 4th round grade.

 

On top of that, in his first year playing at asu people were already raving about his potential.

 

You act like he was some nobody though even last year people knew he was talented enough to play in the league. I'd use his 3rd or 4th round grade to justify this position.

 

People knew the talent was already their with him, and he just needed to put it all together, which it seems judging by his ridiculous numbers+his heisman that he did put it all together

 

Yes he had an amazing year. Was it a wonderful year compared to the rest he played? Yes. But was he a one year wonder? I'd say no based on the 3rd or 4th round grade coming into the year.

 

Plus I'd rather draft a meteoric riser over someone who has stagnated or regressed their last year of college. At least you already know the guy is improving.

 

 

Solid points. The conference you play in, your competition is key IMO because it is a reflection of what you can do on the next level. It may not be everything but if you come out of such a competitive conference with those numbers and win the Heisman, it is not just a one-year wonder.  And guys that want to play on the next level need to show improvement throughout their college playing years.   I like Daniel's a great deal.    

[The Consigliere]

4 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

Oh the "it was everyone else's fault" take.

 

The bottom line is that he went from 17 TDs and being on absolutely nobody's radar as far as the 2024 draft to 40 TDs and being considered a top 3 pick.

 

That's basically the definition of a one year wonder. 

Combing through old rankings, I've seen him ranked 10th (SI, March 2023), 9th (PFF), 8th (rotoballer), and 2nd (draft countdown). 

 

My own memory is that there were at least 5-7 guys ahead of him for sure on most lists which is reflected in the more respected sites rankings, but it is worth noting, this was viewed as a class stuffed w/QB's, so the 8th-10th guy was probably viewed as a 2nd-3rd round prospect, then he had a ridiculous final year. He was good in '22 too though, just not in the tier of this good ('23) by any stretch. 

[wit33]

 

1 hour ago, Warhead36 said:

I just wish Daniels were 21, not already 23. 
 

Maye is still my go to. 

 

Are you saying in terms of his athleticism? 

[The Consigliere]

4 hours ago, BayouBrave86 said:

I am a LSU alum and feel like I can assess our talent pretty well, a lot better than this clown show organization since…well I started following them. This is the same dumb franchise that drafted Haskins a year before a loaded QB draft. Called Burrow being a star and I’m calling Jayden being a star. LSU had some really **** QB play for the longest time and I’m telling you Jayden will be elite once he puts on a few Lbs. He is elite. Nabers is also the best WR in the draft and BT Jr. is going to be a steal for whoever gets him. 

If you're an LSU alum, you're inherently biased. Everyone's biased in various ways, but we are definitely more biased when we're regionally focused (there's a huge bias against West Coast teams on this board for instance, and to some degree, for good reason, the Pac-12 has been down forever, but the bias is a bias), and when we're alumni, generally, it becomes even worse. 

 

I love Nabors too, but you're already boosting him ahead of Marvin Harrison Jr. Why? I believe Nabors is gonna be great too, I get the sense that he's in that same tier with Chase, Lamb, G. Wilson, and AJ Brown as the best WR prospects since the vaunted '14 class. What did you think of Terrace Marshall? Guice? Fournette? 

 

Regardless, I love Nabors, we'll see. But you're not a reliable narrator here, it should be obvious why. As I said before, we've all got our own biases, but basic fandom is generally the worst of the biases you can have, even on the cynical, negative side. 

[The Consigliere]

5 hours ago, kingdaddy said:

This is a great list and shows you that the odds aren't good of finding a franchise QB in the top 3 picks of the draft. Will our analytics guy look at things like this and decide it's better to take the big offer over taking the QB prospect like the Bears did last year? That's why I think the interview process is gonna be huge. We could fall in love with Bo Nix, or Michael Penix and decide to take them later in round one or round 2 while grabbing the best O-lineman in the draft? Decisions, decisions....thanks for posting this list. 

The problem with the lists, is that they always omit key details. If you make a list of anything taken top 10 or 20 or whatever you are going to see a lot of misses. If I show you a list of the QB's that made the conference title games the last 20+ years you're gonna see that 80-85% of the time, those guys were either Tom Brady, or a 1st round QB. Over and over and over. There are a lot more good quality teams than teams that make these final fours, but at the end of the day, in nearly every conference title game weekend, you will see 3/4 or 4/4 QB's being top 5-15 overall selection 1st round QB's. Every once in a while you'll get a weird one, especially for instance when Wilson and Brady were making their runs, but you pile them all in together and overall, the weight eventually becomes overwhelming. You have your handful of random starts that were different, Wilson, and Brady being the HUGE examples the last 15 years, and nearly every other guy (especially every other guy that does it multiple times, and not just a one off run like a Bortles type) is gonna be a blue chip guy.

 

This is the reality of the game:

 

The preponderance of QB's that become elite are 1st rounders.

The preponderance of QB's that become elite and are 1st rounders, are typically high 1st rounders.

There are exception QB's every generation, usually 1 or 2, Brady in the aughts, Brady and Wilson last decade, Joe Montana and Joe Theismann in the eighties etc, Romo and Dak for the Cowboys. 

 

There are many bust first round QB's, and more than half of first round QB's either become just average or bust

There are far more than half of QB's taken outside of round 1 that become busts, and average or worst, and the #'s there border infinitely worse (I'd say 80-95% miss rate depending upon which parts of the draft we're talking about).

 

This is the reality. You can do your coin flip, or you can try to hit your 1 in 50 grand slam outside out round 1. I'd rather go with the coin flip. 

3 hours ago, Forehead said:

 

Eh, I have "Christian Hackenberg is going to be a successful NFL QB" in my posting history somewhere, I've got no stones to cast

Hey, he was a value!! <checking notes>. 

[Darrell Green Fan]

3 hours ago, mac8887 said:

Daniels played in the toughest conference in college football, against the toughest defenses in college football an put up madden numbers. Yes he did have a wonderful year.  But even the year before he played well enough to get a 3rd or 4th round grade.

 

On top of that, in his first year playing at asu people were already raving about his potential.

 

You act like he was some nobody though even last year people knew he was talented enough to play in the league. I'd use his 3rd or 4th round grade to justify this position.

 

People knew the talent was already their with him, and he just needed to put it all together, which it seems judging by his ridiculous numbers+his heisman that he did put it all together

 

Yes he had an amazing year. Was it a wonderful year compared to the rest he played? Yes. But was he a one year wonder? I'd say no based on the 3rd or 4th round grade coming into the year.

 

Plus I'd rather draft a meteoric riser over someone who has stagnated or regressed their last year of college. At least you already know the guy is improving.

 

 

Yes he played in the SEC. He also had far better receivers than say Maye and that also makes a difference.  People are getting so worked up over the "one year wonder" thing. Well going into this last season nobody had Daniels being picked in the top 5.  So in terms of the NFL draft, which is what we are discussing, he was in fact a one year wonder.  

[Anselmheifer]

7 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I've spent a lot of time on Maye.  IMHO he's an easy dude to build around because his wheel house is almost everything.  All three levels.  Maybe I'd like better touch on the first level. 

 

IMO he's so good on throws in between the numbers especially on the 2nd level that i'd like a TE.   He's also a great deep ball thrower and while I like Terry and Dotson i don't think either are killer with the deep ball.  In the 2nd round someone like Legette, Brian Thomas, Keon Coleman if they fall that far.  Maybe J. Polk. 

 

Absolutely. Pairing Maye with a TE would be a no brainer. Especially if we hire Ben Johnson, who seems to get a lot of money out of the spot. 

 

7 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

He's emerging as a stud at that spot.  I am with the crowd about Fauga on the draft thread, loved him the first time I watched him.  You put two big time round graders on the right side who can also pass block that would be fun but alas I suspect he goes earlier than the mock draft types expect

 

 

I have seen Fuaga top 20 a lot, and top 12 occasionally. Unless we are going to try a bigger move up, I think he may be out of reach. 

 

 

 

 

[Destino]

So I’ve been watching some highlight and scouting videos on these QBs, because why not? Started doing this about a week ago. My main takeaway from this is that the people making these videos have no earthly idea how to differentiate between a completed pass and a good pass. There are so many under thrown balls and passes that should have been broken up or picked off in these videos that it drives me insane. And no the fact that the QB jumped for no reason while throwing the badly under thrown deep ball doesn’t make it magical. 
 

 

[Darrell Green Fan]

1 minute ago, Destino said:

So I’ve been watching some highlight and scouting videos on these QBs, because why not? Started doing this about a week ago. My main takeaway from this is that the people making these videos have no earthly idea how to differentiate between a completed pass and a good pass. There are so many under thrown balls and passes that should have been broken up or picked off in these videos that it drives me insane. And no the fact that the QB jumped for no reason while throwing the badly under thrown deep ball doesn’t make it magical. 
 

 

 

I stopped watching those YouTube videos from some guy's basement.  Every prospect looks good if you only look at their highlights.  To me the best way is to watch entire games.  

[Curtisp5286]

6 hours ago, kingdaddy said:

This is a great list and shows you that the odds aren't good of finding a franchise QB in the top 3 picks of the draft. Will our analytics guy look at things like this and decide it's better to take the big offer over taking the QB prospect like the Bears did last year? That's why I think the interview process is gonna be huge. We could fall in love with Bo Nix, or Michael Penix and decide to take them later in round one or round 2 while grabbing the best O-lineman in the draft? Decisions, decisions....thanks for posting this list. 

I’d there any place where the odds of finding a franchise QB are better?

 

Now admittedly that’s a snarky question, but truthfully, if not with a very high pick, what is the best way to get a top-10 QB?

[Destino]

Just now, Darrell Green Fan said:

 

I stopped watching those YouTube videos from some guy's basement.  Every prospect looks good if you only look at their highlights.  To me the best way is to watch entire games.  

I like to read write ups from former scouts too, but I’ve done this for years now. I’ve yet to find anyone that has any reliability. Some of them even mention “trusting their gut” which I find hilarious at this level. They really have no clue beyond saying “we predict that an nfl starter is likely to be hiding within this group of 4 or 5 prospects”. Which one it is exactly, is unknown.