2024 NFL Draft Position/Tracker - Final Pick #2

[bearrock]

32 minutes ago, Riggo#44 said:

If both us and the Patriots lose. Here are our rooting interests on Sunday

 

Just adding to the info, we either need NO win plus 1 of the remaining 4 or 3 out of 5 to beat NE on sos.  

[gooseneck]

37 minutes ago, Ball Security said:

That’s why it’ll be sweet if both AZ and NE win next week.

And Green Bay

[moondog]

I’m just having a hard time being sold on Williams or Maye. I think in my ideal situation we are 2 and pats 3 and we trade down with them so they take Maye and we take Harrison and gain an additional 2nd rounder giving us 3 high second round picks to stockpile offensive linemen. 
 

Then immediately resign Brissett to have a true competition with Howell that he will likely win. Let Samuel walk if he wants more than $5M/year and roll with Harrison, Terry and Jahan. 
 

I suppose you could trade down farther, miss Harrison and take either Bowers or a LT and get a bigger haul but I’d rather have Harrison. 

[kingdaddy]

13 minutes ago, moondog said:

I’m just having a hard time being sold on Williams or Maye. I think in my ideal situation we are 2 and pats 3 and we trade down with them so they take Maye and we take Harrison and gain an additional 2nd rounder giving us 3 high second round picks to stockpile offensive linemen. 
 

Then immediately resign Brissett to have a true competition with Howell that he will likely win. Let Samuel walk if he wants more than $5M/year and roll with Harrison, Terry and Jahan. 
 

I suppose you could trade down farther, miss Harrison and take either Bowers or a LT and get a bigger haul but I’d rather have Harrison. 

Or maybe take a QB who falls to the 2nd round if we have a grade on them where we think the guy could be a legit NFL starting QB?

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

New England will beat the Jets if they both play like they have been. Even if they don’t, I like our chances in the tie breakers. The 2nd pick will be ours.

 

edit: just checked the betting lines and all the teams we want to win are favored.

 

Dallas over Washington (-13.5)

New England over New York (-2.5)

New Orleans over Atlanta (-3.5)

Pittsburgh over Baltimore (-4)

Indianapolis over Houston (-1)

Green Bay over Chicago (-3)

Las Vegas over Denver (-2.5)

Edited January 1 by Sacks 'n' Stuff

[UK Skins]

I think it's three points for home advantage so would depend where the games are, but still good to see

[HTTRDynasty]

If we walk away from this draft picking at #2 without a potential franchise QB (again), we deserve the next 3-5 years of misery. 

[Rufus T Firefly]

On 12/31/2023 at 10:05 AM, Darrell Green Fan said:

Well we now pick 4th so obviously rooting for Dallas to win was not right. 

Just to circle back to this for a second. Just for info at this point.

 

Going into week 18 now, if we stay tied with NE through the finale, we will need 3 of 6 thins to go our way to win the tiebreaker (with New Orleans and Atlanta being two of them in the same game). If less than three fall for us, we lose the tiebreaker. 

 

If Dallas hadn't won, the situation, as it turns out, would be the same. We would need 3 of the 6 to go in our favor to win the tiebreaker over NE. No effect. 

 

Not an "I told you so" or anything, I understood the rationale to root agains Dallas for the sake of the tiebreaker. I just disagreed with it. Would have even if it did affect the tiebreaker. But it turns out it didn't.

 

Meanwhile Dallas plays us with a division title and number 2 seed assured if they win. 

 

Worked out pretty well for us. 

[actorguy1]

 

 

[Warhead36]

51 minutes ago, moondog said:

I’m just having a hard time being sold on Williams or Maye. I think in my ideal situation we are 2 and pats 3 and we trade down with them so they take Maye and we take Harrison and gain an additional 2nd rounder giving us 3 high second round picks to stockpile offensive linemen. 
 

Then immediately resign Brissett to have a true competition with Howell that he will likely win. Let Samuel walk if he wants more than $5M/year and roll with Harrison, Terry and Jahan. 
 

I suppose you could trade down farther, miss Harrison and take either Bowers or a LT and get a bigger haul but I’d rather have Harrison. 

Do you enjoy being stuck in perpetual mediocrity?

[KillBill26]

 

 

 

[woodpecker]

23 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

Just to circle back to this for a second. Just for info at this point.

 

Going into week 18 now, if we stay tied with NE through the finale, we will need 3 of 6 thins to go our way to win the tiebreaker (with New Orleans and Atlanta being two of them in the same game). If less than three fall for us, we lose the tiebreaker. 

 

If Dallas hadn't won, the situation, as it turns out, would be the same. We would need 3 of the 6 to go in our favor to win the tiebreaker over NE. No effect. 

 

Not an "I told you so" or anything, I understood the rationale to root agains Dallas for the sake of the tiebreaker. I just disagreed with it. Would have even if it did affect the tiebreaker. But it turns out it didn't.

 

Meanwhile Dallas plays us with a division title and number 2 seed assured if they win. 

 

Worked out pretty well for us. 

Conversely, had the Lions won Dallas would still have ended up with plenty to play for against us and still would’ve been a double digit favorite. So even though hindsight is 50/50, seems like the true answer is it never mattered at all! So I’m comfortable having gone with my default position of rooting against Dallas.

Edited January 1 by woodpecker

[Rufus T Firefly]

4 hours ago, woodpecker said:

Conversely, had the Lions won Dallas would still have ended up with plenty to play for against and still would’ve been a double digit favorite. So even though hindsight is 50/50, seems like the true answer is it never mattered at all! So I’m comfortable having gone with my default position of rooting against Dallas.

Well, they would have had the same incentive they had last year, Needing not just a W, but the Giants to beat Philly. And they came out flat, knowing it probably didn't matter what they did against us, and we beat them easily. 

 

The scenarios for Dallas' motivation for Washington game,  winning vs losing against Detroit, non-hindsight edition were:

Dallas W

If Philly beat Arizona, Dallas could win the division by beating us and Philly loss to NYG.

If Philly lost to Arizona, Dallas wins division by beating us outright. 

 

Dallas L

If Philly beat Arizona, nothing to play for against us, likely a Trey Lance game with Parsons and others sitting. 

If Philly lost to Arizona, Dallas could win the division by beating us and Philly loss to NYG.

 

With the Dallas W, the worst case scenario was the same as the best case scenario with a Dallas L, while the worst case with a Dallas L was a disaster. The clear best case came with the Dallas W. 

 

That's why rooting for Dallas was the clearly right move, imo. 

Edited January 1 by Rufus T Firefly

[MrJL]

1 hour ago, moondog said:

I’m just having a hard time being sold on Williams or Maye. I think in my ideal situation we are 2 and pats 3 and we trade down with them so they take Maye and we take Harrison and gain an additional 2nd rounder giving us 3 high second round picks to stockpile offensive linemen. 
 

Then immediately resign Brissett to have a true competition with Howell that he will likely win. Let Samuel walk if he wants more than $5M/year and roll with Harrison, Terry and Jahan. 
 

I suppose you could trade down farther, miss Harrison and take either Bowers or a LT and get a bigger haul but I’d rather have Harrison. 

 

there is no way the journeyman backup is a better bet than the potential franchise QB.This is either Sam's team or a totally new guy's team

[Skinsinparadise]

4 hours ago, Skins199021 said:

Thing is the last time we were at 2, Tua and Herbert were loads betters prospects than Maye 

2021 draft is a good case study on why you don’t just draft any qb Willy nilly just because you are sitting at 2 

 

 

Not sure i follow the logic.  The way I take the point is Ron didn't follow the right logic in that draft but its the right logic in 2024?

 

Loads better prospects based on what?   If you were hardcore on Herbert before that draft, cool.  But if its about consensus loved prospects, i'd say Maye is getting more love than either of those QBs.  Does that matter?  Not if you think the consensus-group think on these prospects is wrong.  But if we are talking about the leaks about what personnel guys think about these QBs -- it feels like Maye gets more love than those 2 and by a good margin comparing then and now. 

 

Heck Rivera himself oddly explained to Sheehan why he wasn't hopped up about either QB because as he said there was no league consensus on Herbert.  Herbert wasn't some slam dunk consensus loved prospect back then.  And Tua lost his luster with his injuries leading up to that draft and questionable arm strength.

 

 

https://www.pff.com/news/college-justin-herbert-worth-risk-first-round-2020-nfl-draft

 

 

Is Justin Herbert worth the risk in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft?

 

Quarterback-needy teams such as the Los Angeles Chargers at No. 6, the Indianapolis Colts at No. 13, the Denver Broncos at No. 15, etc., may opt to overreach for the Oregon Duck, but should they? As a true freshman in 2016, Herbert impressed after being tabbed the starter mid-season and topped it the following year by producing an elite 90.5 grade in his limited action (a broken collarbone caused him to miss a handful of games). He then regressed in 2018 to near average, setting up for a sort of prove-it year in 2019.

Herbert’s 81.9 overall grade this season ranked just 27th at his position and is sixth among the group of seven quarterbacks mentioned earlier. While the Oregon Ducks as a whole got better year over year, Herbert did not.

Justin Herbert wins above average over last three seasons

Season	Game total	Wins Above Average (WAA)
2017	8	0.438
2018	13	0.429
2019	13	0.395

(2019 does not include Rose Bowl and ranked 81st among all FBS players)

Herbert has won people over on some of his tight passes to receivers running to the sideline. PFF has a powerful database and the ability to pull up the results on such throws that were horizontal and outside the numbers — Herbert had attempted 62 such passes and produced the third-highest grade. Most of those throws came when Herbert was in rhythm, an area where he excels. He’s great when getting through his progressions, but it gets ugly as soon as he is knocked out of rhythm, as he ranked 75th in PFF passing grade.

 

...While Herbert has thrown some great deep balls when clean, there are still some accuracy problems present across the board. Quick, short passes have been Herbert’s nemesis this season, ranking 64th in the FBS in accurate-pass rate on throws in 2.5 seconds or less and traveling just 1-9 yards. On throws of 19 yards or fewer when clean, Herbert has thrown the fourth-most incompletions that were faulted to him — whether it was an overthrow, underthrow, ball in front or behind, etc. Regardless of the scenario, he owns the second-highest rate of such throws among the top seven quarterbacks in the 2020 draft class.

Edited January 1 by Skinsinparadise

[mistertim]

1 hour ago, moondog said:

I’m just having a hard time being sold on Williams or Maye. I think in my ideal situation we are 2 and pats 3 and we trade down with them so they take Maye and we take Harrison and gain an additional 2nd rounder giving us 3 high second round picks to stockpile offensive linemen. 
 

Then immediately resign Brissett to have a true competition with Howell that he will likely win. Let Samuel walk if he wants more than $5M/year and roll with Harrison, Terry and Jahan. 
 

I suppose you could trade down farther, miss Harrison and take either Bowers or a LT and get a bigger haul but I’d rather have Harrison. 

 

So we have a likely 2nd overall pick with some excellent (though not "can't miss" level) QB prospects to pick from and you want to re-sign a mediocre journeyman QB and then trade down to pick up a great WR who will have nobody to throw him the ball along with another 2nd rounder who will likely have the ceiling of a decent starter?

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, HTTRDynasty said:

If we walk away from this draft picking at #2 without a potential franchise QB (again), we deserve the next 3-5 years of misery. 

 

Absolutely.  Considering the teams epic level misfortune and incompetence at the QB spot -- can you imagine for a team that organically picked just twice in a 20 year span (2000 and 2020) top 3 --  so part of the narrative is as bad as they've been they have rarely been bad enough to pick high to have a shot at the top 1 or 2 QBs -- and then bam we have a shot to do it in consensus good QB draft at the top, yet we pass over that chance?   that would certainly be added to the pile in that 30 30 ESPN expose I expect to watch some day about Washington and their futility at the QB spot.

Edited January 1 by Skinsinparadise

[SoCalSkins]

3 hours ago, woodpecker said:

Saw my buddy last night who is a huge Bears fan, fresh off watching the game with a bar full of Bears fans. A LOT of #1 pick talk as you can imagine. The overwhelming consensus is they like Fields and want to continue build around him. They all REALLY want Harrison jr. He liked my idea of swapping number two for number one, but otherwise is all about just taking Harrison at number one. Random sampling of the drunk bear fans on New Year’s Eve so take it for what it’s worth, which is very little. 😁

Doesn’t matter what the fans want. Caleb Williams will be the first overall pick unless Jayden Daniels doesn’t a meteoric pre draft rise. Regardless, the pick will be Qb either the bears making it or the team they traded it to. If they are in love with Marvin Harrison Jr they can trade with us to guarantee him if we have the second overall pick. But it probably makes more sense for them to drop to 3 or 4. By the time this shakes out it will be qb 1,2,3 in all likelihood given the premium on the position. 
 

I personally want Caleb. I have been against drafting any USC product ever and my posting history backs that up but that dude when he is on is special. Even if we have to give back the 2 for Montez it’s worth it in my opinion. 

[Skins199021]

18 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Not sure i follow the logic.  The way I take the point is Ron didn't follow the right logic in that draft but its the right logic in 2024?

 

Loads better prospects based on what?   If you were hardcore on Herbert before that draft, cool.  But if its about consensus loved prospects, i'd say Maye is getting more love than either of those QBs.  Does that matter?  Not if you think the consensus-group think on these prospects is wrong.  But if we are talking about the leaks about what personnel guys think about these QBs -- it feels like Maye gets more love than those 2 and by a good margin comparing then and now. 

 

Heck Rivera himself oddly explained to Sheehan why he wasn't hopped up about either QB because as he said there was no league consensus on Herbert.  Herbert wasn't some slam dunk consensus loved prospect back then.  And Tua lost his luster with his injuries leading up to that draft and questionable arm strength.

 

 

https://www.pff.com/news/college-justin-herbert-worth-risk-first-round-2020-nfl-draft

 

 

Is Justin Herbert worth the risk in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft?

 

Quarterback-needy teams such as the Los Angeles Chargers at No. 6, the Indianapolis Colts at No. 13, the Denver Broncos at No. 15, etc., may opt to overreach for the Oregon Duck, but should they? As a true freshman in 2016, Herbert impressed after being tabbed the starter mid-season and topped it the following year by producing an elite 90.5 grade in his limited action (a broken collarbone caused him to miss a handful of games). He then regressed in 2018 to near average, setting up for a sort of prove-it year in 2019.

Herbert’s 81.9 overall grade this season ranked just 27th at his position and is sixth among the group of seven quarterbacks mentioned earlier. While the Oregon Ducks as a whole got better year over year, Herbert did not.

Justin Herbert wins above average over last three seasons

Season	Game total	Wins Above Average (WAA)
2017	8	0.438
2018	13	0.429
2019	13	0.395

(2019 does not include Rose Bowl and ranked 81st among all FBS players)

Herbert has won people over on some of his tight passes to receivers running to the sideline. PFF has a powerful database and the ability to pull up the results on such throws that were horizontal and outside the numbers — Herbert had attempted 62 such passes and produced the third-highest grade. Most of those throws came when Herbert was in rhythm, an area where he excels. He’s great when getting through his progressions, but it gets ugly as soon as he is knocked out of rhythm, as he ranked 75th in PFF passing grade.

 

...While Herbert has thrown some great deep balls when clean, there are still some accuracy problems present across the board. Quick, short passes have been Herbert’s nemesis this season, ranking 64th in the FBS in accurate-pass rate on throws in 2.5 seconds or less and traveling just 1-9 yards. On throws of 19 yards or fewer when clean, Herbert has thrown the fourth-most incompletions that were faulted to him — whether it was an overthrow, underthrow, ball in front or behind, etc. Regardless of the scenario, he owns the second-highest rate of such throws among the top seven quarterbacks in the 2020 draft class.

Both were for sure better QB prospects than Maye 

 

Tour logic essentially sounds like it doesn’t matter the quality of the top 3 QBs in the draft you take them because the are top 3. That is how you end up with Wilson or Lance in the top 3 

 

Herbert was bigger, faster, stronger, and more accurate than Maye, better arm strength 

 

Tua was for sure a better prospect than Maye, in fact it was a Burrow/Tua debate until Tua’s injury.

 

tua for sure played against better competition and I would argue Herbert did in 2019. Maye played no one this year and had underwhelming numbers 

 

in terms of actual QB skills and play it’s is very hard to really distinguish between Howell and Maye as talent on college. One was a 5th round pick and the other we are thinking at 2? That’s scares me 

 

would be much more comfortable taking the risk with Jayden Daniels at 2 than Maye. If we must go the QB route 

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

1 hour ago, KillBill26 said:

 

 

[Est.1974]

23 minutes ago, SoCalSkins said:

Doesn’t matter what the fans want. Caleb Williams will be the first overall pick unless Jayden Daniels doesn’t a meteoric pre draft rise. Regardless, the pick will be Qb either the bears making it or the team they traded it to. If they are in love with Marvin Harrison Jr they can trade with us to guarantee him if we have the second overall pick. But it probably makes more sense for them to drop to 3 or 4. By the time this shakes out it will be qb 1,2,3 in all likelihood given the premium on the position. 
 

I personally want Caleb. I have been against drafting any USC product ever and my posting history backs that up but that dude when he is on is special. Even if we have to give back the 2 for Montez it’s worth it in my opinion. 

Yeah my current view is find a way to get Williams or trade back for more picks.

[Dark Acre]

1 hour ago, Warhead36 said:

Do you enjoy being stuck in perpetual mediocrity?

After awhile (23 years of it), it becomes not only familiar, but comforting and welcoming even.  Sometimes you wanna go where everybody knows your name and they're always just the same.  Cheers!

[Skinsinparadise]

21 minutes ago, Skins199021 said:

Both were for sure better QB prospects than Maye 

 

 

"For sure" in your book.  It was definitely not a "for sure" drill with most.  Heck as I said even Rivera used that as a crutch to defend why he didn't dig Herbert in that draft -- it was because there were a lot of questions about Herbert back then I recall that period well.

 

Maye has been hyped for two years running.  Now I get some thinking maybe its a bit too much.  And I got no problem with someone going against the grain but that's what it is.

 

Regardless, are you so sure in your QB evaluation skills that you'd have a beef with the GM if they don't agree with you?  What if they take Maye?  Would you be pissed?

 

 

 

21 minutes ago, Skins199021 said:

 

Herbert was bigger, faster, stronger, and more accurate than Maye, better arm strength 

 

 

 

Will see.  It's comparable according to most and most do expect Maye to run faster than Herbert but will see at the combine.  As for accuracy, that was a knock on Herbert as I posted on this thread. Maye had the better completion rate in his college career.  Both had some inconsistency in their game.

 

21 minutes ago, Skins199021 said:

 

 

Tua was for sure a better prospect than Maye, in fact it was a Burrow/Tua debate until Tua’s injury.

 

 

I recall it well. I've even seen Tua play live multiple times.  But the injury wasn't just some sidebar after thought narrative.  It was a major plot line both in the context of effecting his arm strength and to his future durability.

 

21 minutes ago, Skins199021 said:

 

in terms of actual QB skills and play it’s is very hard to really distinguish between Howell and Maye as talent on college. One was a 5th round pick and the other we are thinking at 2? That’s scares me 

 

 

It should scare if it were true.  the ironic thing is I barely paid attention to Maye earlier in his career but I couldn't escape that the narrative that I constantly heard that was tough to escape back then was he's distinctly the better QB prospect over Howell. 

 

If its all about stats than we should draft Bo Nix.  

 

21 minutes ago, Skins199021 said:

 

 

would be much more comfortable taking the risk with Jayden Daniels at 2 than Maye. If we must go the QB route 

 

I am cool with Jayden.  But if its risk you want to avoid, then Maye IMO is the dude who is less risky. 

Edited January 1 by Skinsinparadise

[skinsmania123]

1 hour ago, moondog said:

I’m just having a hard time being sold on Williams or Maye. I think in my ideal situation we are 2 and pats 3 and we trade down with them so they take Maye and we take Harrison and gain an additional 2nd rounder giving us 3 high second round picks to stockpile offensive linemen. 
 

Then immediately resign Brissett to have a true competition with Howell that he will likely win. Let Samuel walk if he wants more than $5M/year and roll with Harrison, Terry and Jahan. 
 

I suppose you could trade down farther, miss Harrison and take either Bowers or a LT and get a bigger haul but I’d rather have Harrison. 

Where I agree here, honestly is IF we have a chance to take Harrison we should. But I do not think it is going to happen.  The Bear's who have been building their roster are going to stay with Field's and take Harrison IMO.  It would actually enhance Field's ability to succeed. I would be very surprised if they did not take the pic mainly because Field's has played well in the 2nd half of the season.

 

Even though I have been supportive of Sam all year, I think it is time to move on from him.  Mentally he is fried, and I think he needs a fresh start somewhere else. 

 

I would definitely try to resign Brissett as a backup, and possibly compete with the incoming QB draft pic. Because IMO they are not going to get Harrison. I think a new GM will take Caleb Williams. I watched a bunch of his highlights, and while it is a slanted POV, he is definitely creative and seems to naturally improvise, or go off schedule when he has to. He also throws a very nice long ball, and he is pretty fast. And a real positive is he does not always go with his first read, seems to scan the field well, and then hit his target. 

 

And with all that said, I think we need to be patient and build an O- line for him, PLUS add a big, bodied target at WR or TE, and provide more balance on the play calling side, so he has a better chance to succeed then Sam Howell did. Again, I do not know what he will be in the NFL, but I like him much more now that I watched him.  

[Skinsinparadise]

16 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

Yeah my current view is find a way to get Williams or trade back for more picks.

 

The net of that likely means pass on a QB or try our luck with the 2nd tier.   

 

I am ok with going for Caleb.  But I don't see this draft as Caleb or bust and I suspect he won't be available to be had.  If they skip on a QB in a trade down and that QB plays well they skip on -- i'd want that GM fired, I don't care who it is.    I am not going to forgive Herbet round 2 with another regime if it goes down like that. 

 

If the new GM wants to make a ballsy move and pass on a QB at their pick, cool, but that's an unforgiveable miss IMO if they are wrong.

Edited January 1 by Skinsinparadise