2023 Offseason Mini Camp, OTA’s, Training Camp Discussion Thread: Hallelujah, Josh Harris & Co. Era Edition

[Skinsinparadise]

12 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

If we somehow lose to the Cards, you won't even be able to notice 88's posts anymore, because we'll all be on the Fire RonMart bus and loudly.

 

I can't think of a wheels falling off the bus quicker loss in an opener than this one if that happened.  this team would be the laughing stock of the league.

 

But I don't think there is an even remote chance it happens

[Koolblue13]

Just now, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I can't think of a wheels falling off the bus quicker loss in an opener than this one if that happened.  this team would be the laughing stock of the league.

 

But I don't think there is an even remote chance it happens

Oh, it's gonna be an electric blowout in front of a packed home stadium for the first time in over 20 years. I can not wait and think it'll be the most enjoyable game we've seen from this craptastic franchise in a very long time.

 

But as they say, football is not played on message boards, it's played in TVs and you never know who is going to win.

[DWinzit]

12 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

But I don't think there is an even remote chance it happens

Oh boy, did you really say just say that

[Skinsinparadise]

18 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Oh, it's gonna be an electric blowout in front of a packed home stadium for the first time in over 20 years. I can not wait and think it'll be the most enjoyable game we've seen from this craptastic franchise in a very long time.

 

But as they say, football is not played on message boards, it's played in TVs and you never know who is going to win.

 

Agree generally.  Outside of that game, i have some nervousness about all of them.

 

But the Cardinals?  The got nothing.  Their defense sucks on all fronts.  their offense sucks.   And just to make those dynamics more fun they will start either a raw QB making their debut or a dude who has had 2 weeks to learn their offense and didn't look hot in the preseason already versus this team.  All of this in front of a sell out home crowd?

 

I think they are easily the worst team in the NFL but its even worse than that when you factor the circumstances for them in this game.

 

This game shouldn't even be close.  it should be a rout.  And this is probably the only time i'll say that this season.

[Koolblue13]

Watching a Brett Kolhman sleepers video and he is talking up Dotson big time.

[Chris 44]

1 hour ago, Koolblue13 said:

If we somehow lose to the Cards, you won't even be able to notice 88's posts anymore, because we'll all be on the Fire RonMart bus and loudly.

Cardinals are at 4.5 win total. Thinking I may mortgage the house and go with the under.

[Koolblue13]

6 minutes ago, Chris 44 said:

Cardinals are at 4.5 win total. Thinking I may mortgage the house and go with the under.

I would definitely mortgage your house on that.

[samy316]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I can't think of a wheels falling off the bus quicker loss in an opener than this one if that happened.  this team would be the laughing stock of the league.

 

But I don't think there is an even remote chance it happens

Ron would vault straight to #1 for coaches most likely to get fired in season if they blow that home game against the Cardinals.  He should get his key card revoked at the Ashburn facility that next day on Monday if they lose.  Luckily, I think they’ll eviscerate the Cardinals, so hopefully this will be a moot point.

[SkinsGuy]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

This game shouldn't even be close.  it should be a rout. 

 

It should be, but given Washington's (and Rivera's) penchant for starting seasons slow, I'll wait and see.

[Skinsinparadise]

Listened to Logan on Keim.

 

At the beginning he mentioned he is coming out with an article shortly that involves an interview with Ron where Ron said something like he can't control what Josh Harris does as for his job security.  And if he goes 8-8-1 again and in turn gets fired.  Assuming Howell and the roster looks good, he will feel good that he set the next regime for success. 

 

Funny he said that because that's exactly how this off season came off to me and some others here which is lets go for rebuild year 4 and really go for it perhaps in year 5.   Maybe there are other comments from Rivera coming in that article that screams confidence for a big season in 2023.  But if not, and that's the money quote, to me its a telling one.

 

Switching gears, wow if you want to get jazzed for this season, Logan is the dude for that.  At least as to the O line.  He comes off having more concerns about Howell than he does on the O line.

 

Ironically he starts on the point that its not always easy to evaluate within house. Teams internally tend to be optimistic and then are often surprised later when the season starts.  He referenced playing for an awful Bears team but in the preseason the coaches seemed convinced they were going to the playoffs  Then discusses with Keim that this is among many teams in that 7-10 wins range, where it can go either way. 

 

And you got to see the bullets flying for real to know how things are going to go -- Paulsen referenced that point especially in the context of the younger players fans are high on like Howell and Forbes, etc.  Things look good for them but we won't know until we know.

 

They both shot down the idea that the team will suck.  Keim referenced the tougher schedule compared to last year but outside of that its a better team. Paulsen defended some of the national pessimism about the team because he goes this is an offensive driven league and when you got questions at QB and O line you are unlikely to get optimsitic takes.

 

Keim came off again high on Howell's chances especially because of his persona.  Logan agreed.

 

Logan is high on the team chemistry and Bieniemy's coaching.  And thinks they can overachieve.    

 

But then the O line talk wow.  Logan is in his own orbit on the point and I hope he's right.  He started being an outspoken outlier about the O line weeks ago and it keeps building with him.  He's gone from their ceiling is average but he felt that they have a shot to get there to now he thinks they can be an upper half off the league O line.

 

The gist of it is he agrees that its not a talented group.  But he thinks their chemistry and friendship-camaraderie is off the charts.  And they as a unit will exceed expectations.  Gates and Cosmi are friends.  Then he referenced some other friendship, forgot whom.  Then he said Leno keeps to himself but that's OK.  

 

So on the aggregate its sort of an out there take.  On one front, he can see this season not going well but on another front he thinks the perceived weakness of the team might end up a strength.  

 

Hw thinks this team will gut out some wins that they wouldn't have last year because of their attention of detail.

Edited September 3, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[tmandoug1]

If we lose to the Cardinals it will be because of Ron and company not addressing one of the most important positions on the field (IMO). He should be fired during the game if Sammy gets blown up because of a below average OLineman. I'm still ****ing pissed off about the lack of give a **** during the draft and free agency.

[FootballZombie]

The game vs Ariz is gonna be a bloodbath, or at least it better be if we even want to be mediocre team this year.

We gonna win easy. Cardinals will not even look functional.

 

[Skinsinparadise]

2023 NFL projections, rankings, predictions, Super Bowl pick

• 
  Mike Clay, ESPN WriterSep 3, 2023, 07:00 AM ET
• The 2023 NFL season kicks off Thursday, Sept. 7, when the Detroit Lions visit the Kansas City Chiefs. Will the Chiefs go back to the Super Bowl? Which teams have the best offensive and defensive units? Which sleeper teams could make the push for the playoffs? To raise (or temper) expectations, I put together a complete breakdown of predictions and projections for the upcoming season.

My annual guide has everything you need to know for this season, including which teams are likely to score the most points, which defenses will allow the least and which X factors will decide the standings. I also stacked my team-by-team power rankings and unit grades, and made predictions for the playoffs and Super Bowl LVIII. Here's what to expect for the 2023 season, starting with what I consider the biggest storyline to follow.

 

Projected lowest-scoring teams

1. Washington Commanders, 310 points

Washington has finished bottom-10 in scoring each of the past five seasons and will now turn to Sam Howell -- a 2022 fifth-round pick who attempted 19 passes as a rookie -- as its starting quarterback. Perhaps the Commanders have found a diamond in the rough (Howell has looked good during the preseason), but he's obviously an unknown, and the team's fallback plan is journeyman Jacoby Brissett. Also shaky along the line, this offense will hope to be bailed out by its terrific WR trio in Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel (though McLaurin could miss some time to open the season while dealing with an injury).

 

Projected defenses to allow the most points

1. Los Angeles Rams, 460 points

This Rams defense is the shakiest and most unproven I've seen on paper since entering this industry. Six defenders played 700-plus snaps for this team last season, and none remain on the roster. In fact, Ernest Jones (693) and Aaron Donald (593) are the only players remaining who played more than half the snaps. Despite all the departures, the Rams' top veteran replacements were John Johnson III and Ahkello Witherspoon, which means they'll rely on rookies and recent Day 3 fliers for a majority of their defensive snaps. It's hard to imagine this not being the league's worst defense ... and that's with superstar Donald in the fold.

2. Las Vegas Raiders, 459 points
3. Arizona Cardinals, 458 points

 

 

Preseason power rankings

Asterisks indicate projected playoff teams.

1. Kansas City Chiefs*

With Mahomes (reigning league and Super Bowl MVP) and Reid, the Chiefs are the team to beat -- though Chris Jones' holdout is a short-term concern.

2. Philadelphia Eagles*

After another good Howie Roseman offseason, the Eagles remain loaded at the most important positions and should be able to overcome major uncertainty at safety and linebacker.

 

6. Dallas Cowboys*

Adding cornerback Stephon Gilmore and wide receiver Brandin Cooks to a formidable roster has Dallas closer to the division-rival Eagles than you might realize.

 

19. New York Giants

There are worrisome areas on both sides of the ball, but if new playmakers Darren Waller and Parris Campbell help coach Brian Daboll get Jones to the next level, the Giants will sneak back into the playoffs.

 

28. Washington Commanders

The defense features an elite D-line, but the offense is a massive question mark until Howell proves he's a legit starter.

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/38277544/2023-nfl-season-projections-predictions-rankings-grades-playoffs-super-bowl-pick

[Skinsinparadise]

Ron Rivera is on the hottest of hot seats among NFL coaches

 

 

NFL coaches, perhaps more than their peers in any other North American pro sport, are under a constant microscope. Every decision they make and sentence they utter gets analyzed, and their results and merits are scrutinized year-round. Too many losses, and coaches will find themselves on the “hot seat,” where job security can be as unpredictable as a last-minute heave into the end zone.

 

 

But how accurately can we identify which coaches should be on the hottest seats as the 2023 season gets underway? For that, historical data can offer at least one version of a guide, as Brian Burke displayed for ESPN in 2017. We know plenty of information about former NFL head coaches at the time of their firing, which can inform our expectations. What were their records with their teams, and how successful were they in the postseason, if they made it that far? How long had they gone since their last playoff appearance, and since their last playoff win? Team owners and front offices have given coaches with Super Bowl résumés more leeway, which can also be factored in.

 

This particular model analyzes all those factors for coaches who have been fired since 2002, when the league expanded to 32 teams. Some of the factors, like regular season and playoff success in 2023, are estimated using betting markets. Others are simply based on past results.

 

• Cumulative win rate for the coach with the franchise: This one is obvious: A higher overall win rate can generally keep seats nice and cool.
• Change in wins from 2022 to 2023: Using win totals set by Vegas oddsmakers, this element attempts to capture the estimated improvement or decline in a team’s performance this coming season. A notable drop in wins from one season to the next can significantly impact a coach’s job security.
• Playoff contention odds: This is another predictive element, related to but different from the predicted win total. Making the playoffs can positively influence a coach’s job security, while not qualifying for the postseason is often the first line of criticism leveled against coaches.
• Years since last playoff appearance: In most cases, the longer it has been since a team last reached the postseason, the more scrutiny its coach will face.
• Years since last playoff win: Achieving playoff success is the ultimate goal, and accounting for the span since a team’s last playoff victory adds an extra layer to the evaluation.
• Super Bowl wins and appearances: Frequent trips to the NFL’s pinnacle can protect a coach’s job, while a lack of Super Bowl success can be held against even accomplished coaches when a franchise seeks championship-level performance.

Let’s look at Mike Nolan’s tenure with the San Francisco 49ers as an example of how our Coach Hot Seat Index functions. Nolan was hired in 2005; the club went 16-32 over his first three seasons, winning two fewer games in 2007 than it had in 2006, a downward arc that makes the CHSI quiver. The 49ers also missed the playoffs all three seasons. Based on those results, the model gave Nolan a 47 percent chance of being fired by the end of 2007. Nolan survived, but in 2008 he started 2-5, at which point the model would have given him a 62 percent chance of losing his job. San Francisco indeed fired him after Week 7.

 

The Coach Hot Seat Indicator simply looks at these factors and then assesses the likelihood a coach with a similar résumé would be fired. It doesn’t take into account external factors, such as front office changes, owner sentiment, tradition or the weight of local reputation. That’s why Dallas Cowboys Coach Mike McCarthy has a low chance of being fired (two percent), despite some speculation that team owner Jerry Jones would consider a change if the team doesn’t advance past the first round of the playoffs. In three seasons with Dallas, McCarthy has a 30-20 record and two playoff appearances, including a playoff win last season. According to historical data, that would not make him a strong candidate to lose his job after this fourth season.

Others can adjust the temperature of a coach’s hot seat up or down based on particular circumstances. Nevertheless, the CHSI identifies coaches who — based on expectations for this season, recent results and the historical treatment of NFL coaches — should expect to feel their seat warming up as the weather gets colder.

 

Ron Rivera, Washington Commanders

Rivera appears to be in a sticky situation as the Commanders move into a new era. His record with the franchise is subpar, and like past head coaches in Washington, he has moved through a succession of underwhelming quarterback acquisitions, leading to a record of 22-27-1. This year, Rivera will entrust the starting role to Sam Howell, a fifth-round pick in 2022, with experienced journeyman Jacoby Brissett waiting in the wings. Whoever is under center will have to navigate playing behind an offensive line ranked 27th by Pro Football Focus heading into the season. Not exactly a blueprint for the franchise to win its first playoff game since the 2005 season. And if the Commanders do thrive offensively, new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy figures to get much of the credit.

 

Plus, there is a new ownership group in place that presumably will want to put its own stamp on the franchise unless a terrific season unfolds in 2023. How terrific? History says a head coach who stops a playoff win drought and improves his regular season record by two wins — which would mean a 10-7 finish for Washington — would reduce his chance of being fired to less than 10 percent. Oddsmakers, though, give the Commanders the lowest odds of making the playoffs of any team in the NFC East.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/09/03/nfl-coaching-hot-seat-ron-rivera/

[FootballZombie]

12 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Projected lowest-scoring teams

1. Washington Commanders, 310 points

Washington has finished bottom-10 in scoring each of the past five seasons and will now turn to Sam Howell -- a 2022 fifth-round pick who attempted 19 passes as a rookie -- as its starting quarterback. Perhaps the Commanders have found a diamond in the rough (Howell has looked good during the preseason), but he's obviously an unknown, and the team's fallback plan is journeyman Jacoby Brissett. Also shaky along the line, this offense will hope to be bailed out by its terrific WR trio in Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel (though McLaurin could miss some time to open the season while dealing with an injury).

 

Worst scoring team? Oof

 

Personally, I think we end up w/ a below average offense, there simply is not enough proven production at various spots to predict we are going to be good, and then there is the whole O line problem...

 

But how are we ranked last when teams like the Ariz and Hou are out there?

I struggle to figure out how Ariz won't have stats in the negatives and Hou's top 3 WRs (Woods, Brown, Collins) had rec totals of 1, 1 and 4 last year. CJ Stroud is virtually playing multiple men down.

 

 

I get we shouldn't be ranked highly, its a very proven production weighted metric and only our WR core has shown itself from a production standpoint that it is OK to put at least some faith in them, but last seems harsh.

[Skinsinparadise]

5 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

 

Worst scoring team? Oof

 

Personally, I think we end up w/ a below average offense, there simply is not enough proven production at various spots to predict we are going to be good, and then there is the whole O line problem...

 

But how are we ranked last when teams like the Ariz and Hou are out there?

I struggle to figure out how Ariz won't have stats in the negatives and Hou's top 3 WRs (Woods, Brown, Collins) had rec totals of 1, 1 and 4 last year. CJ Stroud is virtually playing multiple men down.

 

 

I get we shouldn't be ranked highly, its a very proven production weighted metric and only our WR core has shown itself from a production standpoint that it is OK to put at least some faith in them, but last seems harsh.

 

Agree.   Arizona ranked higher in particular is silly.

[MisterPinstripe]

I think these takes are just habit at this point, especially for national media that really don't have any insight to the team and so don't know what going on. For example, the surprise that Howell was named the starter.

[NoVaSkins21]

A week to go until the start of a new era and Week 1.  Can't wait

Edited September 3, 2023 by NoVaSkins21

[profusion]

Cowboys always get over-ranked in the preseason. The Trey Lance trade raises a big red flag for me--it just feels like the harbinger of a classic Jerry Jones screwball season.

[NoVaSkins21]

1 minute ago, profusion said:

Cowboys always get over-ranked in the preseason. The Trey Lance trade raises a big red flag for me--it just feels like the harbinger of a classic Jerry Jones screwball season.

Jerruh loves drama and this his classic move to create more of it

[samy316]

2 minutes ago, profusion said:

Cowboys always get over-ranked in the preseason. The Trey Lance trade raises a big red flag for me--it just feels like the harbinger of a classic Jerry Jones screwball season.

 

12 wins in each of the last two seasons will do that.  I agree that they've been over-hyped in the past, but right now record wise, it's somewhat justified.  With a weaker NFC now, they should be near the top of most rankings due to past performance.  We'll see if that finally translates to an NFC Championship appearance or even a SB apperance.

[profusion]

1 minute ago, samy316 said:

 

12 wins in each of the last two seasons will do that.  I agree that they've been over-hyped in the past, but right now record wise, it's somewhat justified.  With a weaker NFC now, they should be near the top of most rankings due to past performance.  We'll see if that finally translates to an NFC Championship appearance or even a SB apperance.

 

Fair point. The Cowboys *should* be very good this year. Call it a hunch on my part.

[The Rook]

If you think this will be an easy game and there won't be anxious moments at the end of Cardinals game, well you just haven't been watching Washington football.  This team can always snatch defeat from the jaws of victory regardless of which opponent, coach or players are on the field.

 

 

 

 

 

The Rook

[88Comrade2000]

If the Comms lose outright or win but margin real close; that wouldn’t be surprising.  Ron’s track record are slow starts; so if that happens it shouldn’t be surprising.

[bowhunter]

Anyone who watched Virginia Tech play Susans School of Cosmetology last night would know that even mediocre teams can play poorly against lousy teams. Those of you predicting a blowout win should keep the suicide hotline on speed-dial