2023 Offseason Mini Camp, OTA’s, Training Camp Discussion Thread: Hallelujah, Josh Harris & Co. Era Edition

[Renegade7]

I'm tired of speculating...cardinals game is one they should win, full stop.

 

Wilson looked done last year and Bills true weakness is not having a legit target opposite Diggs.

 

F these slow starts, I hope we're so flamming hot going into the Bears game they keep the metro open late for us.

 

Predicting our offense will be bad because it was bad last year is a pathetically predictable take.

Edited September 3, 2023 by Renegade7

[samy316]

1 hour ago, Renegade7 said:

I'm tired of speculating...cardinals game is one they should win, full stop.

 

Wilson looked done last year and Bills true weakness is not having a legit target opposite Diggs.

 

F these slow starts, I hope we're so flamming hot going into the Bears game they keep the metro open late for us.

 

Predicting our offense will be bad because it was bad last year is a pathetically predictable take.

Until they show us otherwise, it’s the only take we have, and the correct one.  After all this time, anyone who isn’t in “see it to believe it” mode, must truly be a masochist.  This team has to overcome 25+ years of disbelief and pessimism.  Not easy to do in 1 season.

[RVAskins]

[LetThePointsSoar]

3 minutes ago, RVAskins said:

 

What could have been with Guice.... Sad. 

[757SeanTaylor21]

I mean to say we say we are gonna be the worst scoring offense is legit crazy but it's an easy take because we have a new qb essentially a rookie and a new oc and new system.

[skinsfan4128]

On 9/2/2023 at 7:00 PM, Fan since a Fetus said:

I understand your point. Some people don’t know all the ins and outs to discuss topics in more depth. Some people are just looking somewhere to fit. Some people are lonely. Some people are slow.

 

I don’t know? He’s been here since 2000. I’ve never seen him get combative with anyone on the board and I’ve never seen him break rules. He may have, I just haven’t seen it. 
 

I just think people need to lighten up in both here and the tailgate. Im guilty of giving him a hard time a couple of times for his negativity, so I’m not beyond recourse. But, I’ve decided to approach it differently. 

 

 Maybe negative people need more positive people in their lives? I don’t know. I do know that everyone here has a choice in how they handle the situation. You could ignore him, you could answer nicely, or you can make fun of him.

 

 The choice is yours. I just didn’t think the piling on was necessary.
 

As for the people that get offended when someone tries to help them on the board and they’re obtuse and refuse to change, like the guy the other day that made a thread and Conn tried to help him, well, make fun of people like that all day long. In fact, I’ll join!

 

 10-4 Green Goblin Cherrio!

 

i won’t derail this thread any further. 
 

Edit: I’m only saying something this one time because I’ve seen it many many times with him and I think people are starting to get a little more harsh and a lot of people pile on. 

Respect your threads, fetus. And to an extent, you're right. However,  in this particular case,  this is a poster who only drops in to spread his disdain for all things Ron. 

 

It's one thing to make a post or two about your dislike for the current coaching staff,  it's a whole other to continually posts the same **** over and over. It gets old and distracts from the flow of the thread.  Particularly if it's the same bs over and over again and just wonder differently.

 

Have you noticed when comrade post his same dribble that when folks ask him to cut it out, he goes dark? He doesn't respond to these complaints or even attempt to make amends and fix the problem. He just repeats the same post and just words it different. 

 

Got no issues with welcoming folks and doing my part to help out (though I usually just lurk, read and digest, and keep quiet). But this fella just keeps doing the same **** and continues with the same hatred towards Ron as every other post he makes (albeit he changes the wording, hence why I say it's a drive by post).

 

Anyhow, I hope this clears things up and you know I'm not trying to pile on. A new season, new owner ( thank christ), and a new Era. Ron might not be the one to lead us into the future, but he's done a helluva job steering this titanic around the numerous icebergs that Lil Napoleon has drop in the drink. So, before we toss his ass to the icy waters, let's give him the benefit of the doubt for this season.

 

He ****s the bed, then comrade gets his wish. But, if he doesn't,  let's see what happens. That's all we can ask for. So yeah, ain't piling on the guy. But yeah, tired of the same crap from him too.

 

Just thought I'd explain myself.

 

I'm skinsfan4128 and I approve of this message. 🤣🤣🤣 A shout out to your post. Very well done, fetus.

 

HTTR!

[Renegade7]

3 hours ago, samy316 said:

Until they show us otherwise, it’s the only take we have, and the correct one.  After all this time, anyone who isn’t in “see it to believe it” mode, must truly be a masochist.  This team has to overcome 25+ years of disbelief and pessimism.  Not easy to do in 1 season.

 

Fair to predict offense based in last year despite changes like OC and a 22 year old at QB?

 

We trying to hard to be fair to them, don't care about us.  Some doom and gloon takes I've seen outside of here are not from us and just straight up lazy.

 

They've shown otherwise this August about being the worst offense.

Edited September 4, 2023 by Renegade7

[stoshuaj]

4 hours ago, Renegade7 said:

 

Fair to predict offense based in last year despite changes like OC and a 22 year old at QB?

 

 To the first question:  yes.  Media predictions tend to be more of a tail wagging the dog thing moreso actual

predictions.  It has to be proven before it can be “predicted”.  A questionable, in places other than here where he’s going to magically scheme away any deficiency, OC and an unproven QB, in other places besides here, equals shaky predictions.

 

It’s an annual rite of passage this time of year for a railing against the dire predictions of the pundits.  Unfortunately, by late Oct they are usually proven to be fairly accurate.  Hopefully, as always, this year will be different. 

[Skinsinparadise]

2 hours ago, stoshuaj said:

 

 

It’s an annual rite of passage this time of year for a railing against the dire predictions of the pundits.  Unfortunately, by late Oct they are usually proven to be fairly accurate.  Hopefully, as always, this year will be different. 

 

Sadly this is true.  the big bad natonal media doesn't believe in this team -- they are haters and how wrong they are at this stage of the off season is a ritual here.  Last year the theme was the big bad media thinks we were dummies for trading for Wentz.  And how over the top and wrong they are about it.

 

How stupid are PFF, Wartren Sharp and these analytics groups for not believing in Wentz.  Just like they are stupid now for not believing in this O line.

 

Look sometimes they are too negative, where its not as bad as they predict.  But better against this team has been a winning bet.

 

It was interesting to hear optimistic Logan Paulsen also defend the national media predictions about the team citing there are so many unknowns about this team that it isn't wild for them to not believe in the team until they see those questions answered. 

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/34302508/carson-wentz-building-confidence-first-training-camp-washington-commanders

 

That's why many within the Washington organization are not focused on why Philadelphia and Indianapolis both traded Wentz. Rather, they see a big, strong-armed quarterback who can reach a higher level than others have in recent years, and they hope he becomes the franchise's first quarterback to surpass 30 touchdown passes since Sonny Jurgensen in 1967.

"What he does on a day-to-day basis tells me everything I need to know about him," Washington defensive tackle Jonathan Allen said. "He came in, he worked, he evolved himself with the team. He's exactly what we want from a quarterback. I know a lot of times the media doesn't get the full story, only the story some people portray. He's given me no reason to doubt him at all."

 

Rivera admitted Wednesday's first practice was "sloppy," but the Commanders did see hopeful signs from Wentz. Rivera liked how he handled the huddle and how he scanned through his progressions and found checkdowns.

 

"He's hyper, he's excited -- he really is," Rivera said. "You see a little more confidence in what we're doing. You could tell he was confident with his movements."

 

Wentz connected with receiver Terry McLaurin on a deep corner route for approximately 40 yards. Later, there was another telling moment when he threw a bit behind McLaurin, who reached back for a completion. As Rivera wondered if Wentz was late, he saw McLaurin run up to Wentz and let him know it was his fault -- he was too quick to come out of his route.

 

"We were able to connect off the bat," McLaurin said. "And just to see his command of the huddle was really good. He was calling the plays really strong and that gives confidence to the other 10 guys in the huddle that we have a guy who will be attention-to-detail-oriented. It gives us a chance to make plays."

 

McLaurin was among a group of Commanders who worked out with Wentz in California earlier this month. It allowed those two to work together for the first time -- McLaurin missed the on-field spring work while he awaited a new contract. And it allowed Wentz to start forming relationships.

 

"I try not to do anything out of the ordinary, let those relationships naturally build," Wentz said.

But Wentz also spent time reflecting this offseason, something he said he would do regardless if he had been traded or not. Wentz threw 27 touchdown passes to only seven interceptions for the Colts, but they were quick to unload him.

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/commanders/news/carson-wentz-outstanding-training-camp-scott-turner-washington

Commanders QB Carson Wentz 'Outstanding' in Camp, Says Coach

Wentz has gotten some positive reviews in the first half of camp.

 

And if this training camp has any indication on how the season will go, offensive coordinator Scott Turner believes the Commanders will be outstanding this year.

"Carson has been outstanding," Turner said. "He's an outstanding communicator. We've had great back and forth. It's important to him, obviously football's important to him. Just going back, starting even in the offseason, he dove right in to learn our offense and learn what we do."

 

Wentz is with his third team in as many years, so growing accustomed to his new surroundings will be key, but it's also something he faced last year as the new man on the block for the Indianapolis Colts.

"Every day you can see that comfort level of his increasing," Turner said. "I've been really pleased with that. And the work he's done with his teammates, getting to know them, just getting a feel for how they play the guys he's throwing the ball to. I just feel like he's getting comfortable and in turn, we're getting better.”

 

 

Edited September 4, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

---

26. Washington Commanders

ESPN FPI's chances to win NFC East: 5%
Chances to make the playoffs: 18%
Projected wins: 6.7
Strength of schedule: Ninth hardest

What do the Commanders do the best?

Play defense. Last season, Washington ranked third in yards allowed per game (304.6) and had the NFL's best third-down defense with a conversion percentage of 31.9%. Tackles Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen form one of the best interior duos in the league. Plus, end Chase Young looked quick off the ball this summer before a stinger injury in his neck limited him. They bolstered the secondary with No. 16 overall pick, corner Emmanuel Forbes. And the secondary's depth and versatility will allow them to disguise coverages better. -- John Keim

 

What is the Commanders' biggest weakness?

Offensive line. Washington revamped its line after last season when it had one of the worst groups in the NFL. The Commanders have new starters at four line positions, so they remain a work in progress as well as a question mark. They lack high-end talent (no first-rounders on the roster and one picked in the second) and experienced depth. The run blocking has been solid this summer, and an emphasis on quick passes and RPOs should help the protection. If this group has a good year, so will the Commanders. -- Keim

Stat to know: Offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, in his first season with the Commanders, has the tough task of turning around an offense that has struggled to find consistency under coach Ron Rivera. Over the last three seasons, the Commanders rank 27th in points per game (19.8), 29th yards per play (5.0) and have the league's third-lowest team Total QBR (39).

 

Fantasy sleeper candidate: QB Sam Howell. In Washington, Howell has the receiving talent to produce as a thrower, and his second-reaction ability will create scramble opportunities to log rushing yards for your lineup. He has been a target for me this summer in superflex formats. -- Bowen

 

Bold prediction for 2023: Jacoby Brissett will take over as starting quarterback by Week 7. I'm worried about Howell's high sack rates and sack-to-pressure rates in college and how that pairs with a weak Commanders interior offensive line. -- Walder

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/38299957/nfl-team-previews-2023-predictions-fantasy-sleepers-depth-charts#wsh

2023 NFL simulation: 285 game predictions, including playoffs

Disaster in Dallas

Remember after last season when coach Mike McCarthy kicked then-offensive coordinator Kellen Moore out the door and took over the playcalling? It didn't work out too well in this simulation.

The Cowboys found themselves on the losing end of a New York double feature, falling to the Giants and Jets to open the season before pulling out a 16-10 win over the Cardinals in Week 3. Perhaps barely beating the Cardinals was the most obvious indicator of what was to come, as Dallas stumbled to then lose to the Patriots, 49ers and Chargers to begin the season 1-5.

Things only got worse. After a modest recovery to pull to 3-6 through Week 10, the Cowboys slid again and all long shot hopes of a late playoff run were dashed. Maybe the new additions didn't click? The Cowboys' 2020 season was derailed by a Dak Prescott injury, and it's not out of the question for things to go off the rails if another key injury happened. Whatever it was, Dallas underperformed, and after a 30-13 loss to the Bills in Week 15, it's very easily to see Cowboys team owner Jerry Jones firing McCarthy with defensive coordinator Dan Quinn taking over as the interim coach.

The good news for him and the Cowboys? They have the No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 draft -- though the Week 3 win over the Cardinals cost Dallas the top pick.

---

Panthers, Commanders reach postseason with first-time starters

The Bryce Young era started off with a bang, as the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 draft led a game-winning drive to lift the Panthers over the Falcons 23-20 in Week 1. A few weeks later the Panthers were 2-2 in a wide-open NFC South, as the Saints and Falcons were 0-4 flops and the Baker Mayfield-led Buccaneers led the division. Young, coach Frank Reich and a strong Panthers defense ultimately ended up winning the division with relative ease at 10-6-1, 2½ games up on the Bucs.

The Commanders' path to the playoffs required a late-season surge after a slow start. Following a 19-7 Week 1 win over the Cardinals, Washington lost three straight, and went 4-6 through 10 weeks and 6-7 through 13. Despite calls from the Commanders' fan base to turn the ball over to quarterback Jacoby Brissett, coach Ron Rivera held firm with Sam Howell under center. It paid off after the Week 14 bye, as Howell led Washington to three wins in its final four games to finish with a 9-8 record and nab the No. 7 seed over the Giants via tiebreaker.

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/38300516/simulating-2023-nfl-season-285-game-predictions-playoffs-super-bowl-champion

[Renegade7]

2 hours ago, stoshuaj said:

 To the first question:  yes.  Media predictions tend to be more of a tail wagging the dog thing moreso actual

predictions.  It has to be proven before it can be “predicted”.  A questionable, in places other than here where he’s going to magically scheme away any deficiency, OC and an unproven QB, in other places besides here, equals shaky predictions.

 

It’s an annual rite of passage this time of year for a railing against the dire predictions of the pundits.  Unfortunately, by late Oct they are usually proven to be fairly accurate.  Hopefully, as always, this year will be different. 

 

That all sounds good, but there were at least 12 offenses last year that produced less yards per game then we did (yet based on last year's data we'll be 32nd instead this year 🤔

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/team

 

It just feels like sensationalism...i remember the articles about Wentz looking good last year, but he basically sucked in preseason.  We all saw this, and folks like me tried to deny it, but tape don't lie. This doesn't feel the same at all for anyone trying to keep the conversation honest, the offense this august looks night and day from last August via eye test.

 

It's surprisingly hard to find official stats regarding preseason, and maybe that's part of the problem here.  Just trying to remember graphics from this August and last, it's not even close the production from our week 1 starter last preseason (Wentz) and this preseason (Howell).

 

I'd do a sig bet with anyone that this won't be the worst offense in the NFL come October.

 

 

  It's NOT about overconfidence or arrogance , it just doesn't make sense predicting we'll be the worst offense this year.  The oline will hold us back from our potential in 2023, but it did last year too and we STIILL weren't the worst offense in the NFL, smh.

[Skinsinparadise]

O line to protect a young QB.  Weird and novel. 😎

 

Why the Texans spent $118M in guaranteed money to protect rookie QB C.J. Stroud

HOUSTON -- The Houston Texans made it clear heading into the draft that no matter who the quarterback was, he would be better protected than some of their past first-round picks.

There have been three first-round quarterback selections in the Texans' history. First came David Carr -- the franchise's first-ever draft pick in 2002. Then in 2017, Houston took Deshaun Watson with the 12th pick. In April, C.J. Stroud was selected to take the reins, as Houston selected him with the No. 2 pick.

The Texans have made it a point of emphasis to not let happen to Stroud what happened to Carr and Watson.

"I think my last year in college, I don't know how many times I was sacked, but it was maybe 15 the entire year," Carr told ESPN. "Then I go from that to 15 in the first two games [with the Texans]. Man, it was really difficult. It got to that point during my rookie year where I felt it was almost insurmountable."

 

During Carr's rookie year, the No. 1 overall pick was sacked 76 times -- the most ever for a single season -- after being sacked only 58 times total in college. Watson was sacked 62 times (the fifth most) in his second season, his first full season as a starter.

So on March 14, general manager Nick Caserio began to invest in the offensive line, first by trading a sixth-round pick to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for right guard Shaq Mason. Five days later, Caserio gave left tackle Laremy Tunsil a three-year, $75 million contract extension, making him the highest-paid offensive lineman in NFL history.

 

“If you want to be a great offense, you got to have a great protector at the left tackle position," coach DeMeco Ryans said, “and that's what Laremy provides for us."

Caserio then traded the Nos. 65, 188 and 230 picks to the Philadelphia Eagles to move up three spots in the second round to select Penn State center Juice Scruggs.

Then, in May, Caserio signed Mason to a three-year, $36 million extension and extended right tackle Tytus Howard to a three-year, $56 million extension.

 

Tunsil, Howard and Mason's extensions added up to $118.5 million in guaranteed money, the most since 2019 when the Eagles gave out $122.4 million of guaranteed money with extensions to five players -- which was highlighted by right tackle Lane Johnson's $54.6 million, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

"Once we get rolling, this [offense], it's going to be special," Mason told ESPN. "We'll be very key to [Stroud's] development. We invested in our O-line, and we're expected to deliver, which is what we plan on doing. I think that also makes the game easier for him, knowing the stability up front. He's going into every week knowing, 'OK, I know what I'm getting.' That makes him relax more and just lets him play his game."

However, transitioning from reading college defenses to NFL units can be difficult for rookies.

 

https://www.espn.com/blog/houston-texans/post/_/id/27252/why-the-texans-spent-over-118m-in-guaranteed-money-to-protect-rookie-qb-c-j-stroud

 

 

[stoshuaj]

🤷‍♂️ I did a quick search and didn’t find a site (granted I only glanced at a handful) predicting this team to have to worst offense in football.  Maybe you did?  25-28 seemed to be the sweet spot.  
 

Rage on my brethren.  Rage on 

Edited September 4, 2023 by stoshuaj

[Renegade7]

3 minutes ago, stoshuaj said:

🤷‍♂️ I did a quick search and didn’t find a site (granted I only glanced at a handful) predicting this team to have to worst offense in football.  Maybe you did?  25-28 seemed to be the sweet spot.  
 

Rage on my brethren.  Rage on 

 

Previous page of this thread, bro

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

2 hours ago, Renegade7 said:

 

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/team

 

It just feels like sensationalism...i remember the articles about Wentz looking good last year, but he basically sucked in preseason.  We all saw this, and folks like me tried to deny it, but tape don't lie. This doesn't feel the same at all for anyone trying to keep the conversation honest, the offense this august looks night and day from last August via eye test.

 

It's surprisingly hard to find official stats regarding preseason, and maybe that's part of the problem here.  Just trying to remember graphics from this August and last, it's not even close the production from our week 1 starter last preseason (Wentz) and this preseason (Howell).

 

 

I don't think it would be the worst offense either.  And the Wentz stuff to me isn't about Howell.  You got some in the national media negative about Howell but its not too bad.  The attack is mostly focused on the O line.  That's what's being slammed.  

 

Bram Weinstein said on air this year that last year during camp, the coaches tried to sell the local media that Wentz was indeed looking good in camp.  The O line stuff feels potentially similar to me.

 

Not saying they end up wrong.  They could of course end up right.  But the point is betting against the national media's negative perception about the team hasn't been a winning bet over the years.  Many of us (me included) tend to be more optimisitc than what ends up unfolding.

 

I am typically 1-2 games more positive than I should be before the season.

The national media as i pointed out in my post often maybe is too negative.  They guess right that this team doesn't make the playoffs.  But they sometimes mistake a bad team for a mediocre team.   Sometimes though they guess right and it indeed ends up bad.  But betting against this team being good sadly has worked out for them for the most part.

 

For me, I am betting on 8-9.   But will see. 

Edited September 4, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[stoshuaj]

As I said, ya found 1.  Congrats and keep that fire burning.  

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

Is sports media at times lazy and unfair?  Yes.

 

Are they often times accurate as it pertains to this teams failures?  Also, yes.

The fact of the matter is, we have an unknown QB, what appears to be a bottom 10 OL from a talent standpoint, our biggest offensive weapon is hobbled, in a system that is new to all of them.  Our head coach has been regularly inserting his foot in his mouth this offseason.  Chase Young is again a huge question mark.  Our best linebacker, who isn’t even that great to begin with is looking at jail time. 

 

What we have to hope for is that Sam is better than most think, Terry will be unscathed come Sunday, the OL and rest of the offense takes well to EB’s system, the defense is good enough, we stay healthy and our divisional foes experience a bit of bad luck, injury bug, etc.  Let’s just hope the mojo  of new ownership propels that stuff into action.

 

[Renegade7]

26 minutes ago, stoshuaj said:

As I said, ya found 1.  Congrats and keep that fire burning.  

 

Maybe I'm just used to the apocalypse being predicted for us outside DC based on previous year results and right or not this is clearly feels different. 

 

  It reminds me of pundits last year that started saying we should've started Taylor all along, sounds good, outside looking in.

 

I'm still with 9-8, margin of error for 1 or 2 games they aren't supposed to lose or aren't supposed to win.  

 

I'd be more shocked if this was a bottom 10 offense then a not top 10 defense.  Same time, respect is not given it is earned as Dawkins would say.

Edited September 4, 2023 by Renegade7

[GoSkins1976]

12 hours ago, RVAskins said:

I was at this game and remember it like it was yesterday. What a play!!

[Voice_of_Reason]

14 hours ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

If the Comms lose outright or win but margin real close; that wouldn’t be surprising.  Ron’s track record are slow starts; so if that happens it shouldn’t be surprising.

Yeah, but openers haven't been the problem.  He's 2-1 in openers and they were actually in position to win the game against the Chargers in 2021.  They were sitting there up 16-13 with 12 minutes to go in the 4th. They got the ball after an INT at their own 4 yard line and Gibby fumbled it on the first play of the drive.  The chargers scored to go up 20-16.  And that was kindof that.  They actually probably should have won that game, to be honest. 

 

It's week 2-6 which are the big bug-a-boo. 

Week 2: 1-2, which really should have been 0-3.  The game they won was the 2021 game vs. the NYG where Hop missed the game winning FG, and got a VERY timely offsides penalty to give him another shot, which he hit.  

Week 3: 0-3

Week 4: 1-2,  win against Atlanta in 2021

Week 5: 0-3

Week 6: 1-2, Win last year against Chicago in a pitiful game where Wentz broke his finger

Week 7: 2-1, Wins against Dallas (this was the Dalton/Ben DiNucci game) and GB last year.

Week 8: 1-1 (2020 Bye), 2021 loss against a BAD Denver team and 2022 win against the Colts, which was the ridiculously horrendous last second pass to McLaurin that he somehow caught. 

Week 9: 1-1 (2021 Bye), 0-2

Week 10: 2-1 2020 vs. Lions, this is the game where Smith went for 390 and they lost by 3.  

Week 11: 3-0

Week 12: 3-0

Week 13: 2-1-1.  The tie is last year's game against the Giants.  

 

I'm going to stop there.  But Week 1 is typically ok.  Weeks 2-6 are VERY not ok.  Weeks 7-13 are good.

[Voice_of_Reason]

12 hours ago, 757SeanTaylor21 said:

I mean to say we say we are gonna be the worst scoring offense is legit crazy but it's an easy take because we have a new qb essentially a rookie and a new oc and new system.

It looks like the following teams have an essentially rookie (or actual rookie) QB:

- Colts (Richardson)

- Texans (CJ Stroud)

- Falcons (Ridder)

- Cardinals (Tune or Dobbs)

- Panthers (Bryce Young)

- ** Packers (Jordan Love) Obviously he's been around longer but hasn't played much. 

- Commanders (Howell)

 

Two "honorable mentions" might be Pittsburgh with Pickett and the 49ers with Purdy.  Both started some games last year, so they are more known.  

 

Maybe it's different, but I don't feel like the other teams in similar situations receive the same criticisms than we do. 

 

The reason for that could be our new QB was a 5th round pick, and the others (apart from the Cardinal's disaster of a situation) are not.  

 

I dunno.  

 

But I think the national media is incredibly lazy, ill-informed, doesn't try to be informed, and nobody really calls them on it, so they can carnival bark all they want.  

[Koolblue13]

15 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Weeks 2-6 are VERY not ok.  Weeks 7-13 are good.

Broncos should be a pretty good team this year.

Bills are a SB favorite

Eagles are a SB favorite

Bears are much improved and similar team. Push

Atlanta is the same.

 

If we make it to 3-3 at this point, I'll be surprised and happy.

 

Giants same grouping that we're in right now, so who knows.

Eagles again.

Pats are a push

Seahawks will be good. That'll be tough one.

Giants again.

Cowboys and their BS

 

If we can go 3-3 through this, again shocked.

 

We'll probably be around a 10 seed and starting to do our annual push away from top five draft pick and get better

 

But

 

Miami is going to be tough

Rams should make us feel pretty confident.

Jets, who knows now, but should be in the playoff hunt

49ers will need this win for the #1 seed

Cowboys, if this game becomes us keeping them out of the playoffs, it'll feel like a successful season. Moral Victory!

 

If this season goes off the rails, it'll happen almost immediately. 

 

I'm excited for this season and I think it'll be a fun one for us and probably really enjoyable, as long as you don't look at the standings.

[bowhunter]

For kicks and giggles, I looked up the NFL Power rankings for the beginning of the 2022 season, the end of the season and the current 2023.

Last year we were ranked #30 at the beginning, and #15 by week 17. This year we start off at #24. Until proven otherwise, we probably deserve the doubt, but it is fun to see how wrong these ranking can be. This time of year, every team is filled with optimism (perhaps sans AZ) and I'm sure every team outside of the top ten is out to prove the doubters wrong.

 

See for yourselves:

Week 1 '22: https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-power-rankings-week-1-eagles-lions-rising-heading-into-2022-season-cowboys-s

Week 16 '22: https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-power-rankings-week-16-2022-nfl-season

 

2023: https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-power-rankings-preseason-2023-nfl-season

 

 

[Drfustercluck]

16 hours ago, bowhunter said:

Anyone who watched Virginia Tech play Susans School of Cosmetology last night would know that even mediocre teams can play poorly against lousy teams. Those of you predicting a blowout win should keep the suicide hotline on speed-dial

I have Holie season tickets, so I was at the game. The VT running game is infuriating to watch, and the defense looked lost three out of rhe four quarters. We were lucky ODU had a QB who couldn't hit the broad side of a barn with a football. 🤣😢

[Voice_of_Reason]

So, here's why I pay absolutely no attention to the national media prediction machine.  Any of it.  And it's not JUST because I've moved from "skeptical" to "cynical" about just about all media coverage of everything.  But there are reasons.  And, remarkably, they are logical. At least to me.  And this is in my order:

 

1. The national media is not paid to be correct.  They are paid to be interesting.  And that "slant" drives everything. Whether they work for the mother ship or have their own shop, they are craving eyeballs/ears, and everything they do is intended to find "the soundbite."  It's all about sales.  It's not about being right.

2. There is no penalty to be wrong.  (There IS a penalty to being boring. You lose your job or go out of business)  Nobody tracks predictions vs. reality.  (Except Vegas, where you can obviously look it up, but we'll get to that in a minute.)

 

Homework for anybody who wants to do it: Go find any of the prognosticators who are yelling, screaming and waiving their arms about predictions now, go find their predictions from last year at this time, and see how accurate they were. You might not be able to find them, because I know at least in the past, some pulled them down because they don't want people to see how badly their predictions turned out. But you're not going to find any of these guys who are correct over a period of time, I don't think.  Did anybody predict the Rams would win 5 games last year? Vegas had them at 10.5.  Colts winning 4?  Vegas had them at 10.  Eagles winning 14?  Vegas had them at 9.5. I'd be SHOCKED if any of the pundits got all of those predictions close to right.  The challenge, it's impossible to figure out which teams are going to do what you kidnof expect them to (Vegas nailed the Dolphins, Commanders and Chargers, and I daresay some of the pundits would have also because that was the "general consensus") vs the ones which are completely off.  But it's hard if you have to fill 3 weeks worth of content with predictions, but last year half of your predictions were wrong, to convince anybody they should listen to you.  So, it's somewhat hidden.  In most cases. But if somebody has last year's Warren Sharp's predictions, I'd be fascinated to see where he landed.  I don't pay for his book, so I don't have them. 

3. None of them follow the details of each team because there are too many teams and too many details.  It's impossible.  So "group think" sets in.  And then it's "how do I spin 'group think' in a more interesting way to get a click?'" It's not "how do I learn more."

4. The analysis rely on their perception of teams, coaches and players which is largely developed by basic statistics, win/loss records, and listening to what their colleagues say rather than watching games, talking to coaches and players. I'm sure some use PFF grades, because they are easily understandable and consumable, if not accurate. The reason is my #3: there are too many teams and too many details to follow.  So you follow the "important ones" more closely.

5. There is a significant reliance on Vegas lines to determine the "baseline" of how good a team is, without understanding 2 key things:

- Vegas is not setting the lines in order to predict a record.  They set the line to generate equal betting on either side.  There's an "emotional" component to this. 

- Vegas is not "right" a lot.  in 2022, 22% were off by 4+ games.   41% of the lines set were off by 3+ games.   ** Caveat, that doesn't mean Vegas isn't profitable.  

6. There are agendas, which can at times be obvious, other times not so much, which drives the narrative.  Take for example the Josina Anderson tweets, and Mike Greenburg, and others, all pushing like hell to get the narrative out there the Commanders would be stupid not to sign Lamar to an offer sheet.  Clearly that came from Lamar's camp to force the issue.  What else is being pushed to who for what reason?  We don't know.  But it's happening.

7. A lot of them are not even remotely qualified to have an "expert opinion."  Anybody can have an "expert opinion" now for any reason. I'm not going to stop them from having an opinion.  But I don't hold it in higher regard than anybody else's on this board.

8. Specifically for players turned analysts: the longer they are out of the league, they less they understand it, the fewer relationship they have, and they don't seem very good (in general) in keeping up with the trends.  Some do. A lot just turn into a mini-version of Doc Walker howling at the moon and talking about manhood issues.   

9.  Specific to Journalists: they try to be analysts, and they aren't qualified.  But they can talk the talk.  

10. Specific to Analysts: they try to be talk show hosts and shock-jocks. I'm not going to turn this into a rant on Warren Sharp.  But he has completed his Sith Lord training and converted fully from an exceptional analyst with some opinions to a shock-jock, late to the party, money grabbing fool.  Why focus on Fantasy Football and Gambling?  Because that's where the money is. Why focus on very critical, pointed sound-bites of certain people?  Sex sells, baby.  And ripping a coach is the NFL equivalent to a topless Syndey Sweeny to NFL fans.  They're going to eat it up and re-post it forever.  

11. For the specific analytics stuff: I think it's MASSIVELY difficult to use analytics to predict outcomes in the NFL at this point because there are too many variables.  There are certain places where analytics are massively useful, and others where it isn't there yet.  And honestly, might not get there.  I also think there is an over-reliance on "grades" and things from people trying to put numbers on outcomes without the full information.  Again, this is a mixed bag to me.  I think teams should use them where possible, but when it comes to using them to predict outcomes, I don't think we're there yet.  

 

Actually, I forgot to put the #1 reason up at the top: none of it matters in the slightest.  Unlike in college football, there are no polls.  At the end of the day, Parcells was right: you are what your record says you are.  Everything else is entertainment and nothing else.  It's certainly not all that useful from a prognostication perspective.  

 

So, that's why their opinion isn't worth a hill of beans.  At least to me.  Except for entertainment value.  I just take nothing from it other than entertainment.