2023 Offseason Mini Camp, OTA’s, Training Camp Discussion Thread: Hallelujah, Josh Harris & Co. Era Edition

[Renegade7]

2 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

I'm woried about our first blocking against other teams 2's and 3's.

 

And if something like this actually shows on the field we have bigger problems then how to get Sam as much playing time in this new offense as we can before live bullets start firing in September.

 

/exaggeration (or am I?)

 

 

[NewCliche21]

3 hours ago, KDawg said:

OT/QB is almost definitely going to be priority 1. I’m hoping QB is good for now.

 

OT would be priority 1… we’d just need to be in range for one. Otherwise we stray from BPA.

 

This is the dumbest **** I've ever heard.  Why would you prioritize going to overtime?  Win it in regulation.

 

SMH

[Koolblue13]

2 minutes ago, NewCliche21 said:

 

This is the dumbest **** I've ever heard.  Why would you prioritize going to overtime?  Win it in regulation.

 

SMH

Not sure if joke....

10 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

 

And if something like this actually shows on the field we have bigger problems then how to get Sam as much playing time in this new offense as we can before live bullets start firing in September.

 

/exaggeration (or am I?)

 

 

 

If the line is bad now and bad in preseason, I don't see it suddenly getting better during the season.

 

No reason to rush Sam to the injured list before those bullets fly.

 

Thank god our schedule starts lke it does. It goes from real easy to real hard in 4 weeks.

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

 

I don't want to say "meh", but his blocking assignments really were easier with a super blocking 275lb Darnell Washington next to him. He can connect in space sure, and that's great, but we should be cautious about assuming he can block in-line when closer in and next to an OT. His assignments would start getting into more gnarly territory than what he did previously.

 

I think people should, unless 2023 film shows otherwise, consider him a better 2022 Dalton Kincaid. Best viewed as a receiver that's a plus blocker in space.

 

I am a freak on the draft site as to watching TEs more than any spot, i watched a ton of Georgia and wrote probably too many posts about Darnell Washington.  Bower from what I saw is a decent blocker. Not great but decent to good IMO. And a work in progress. Kincaid is IMO good enough as a blocker even though Kincaid's superpower are his hands. I started the process thinking Kincaid can't block but my opinion changed the more I watched him.  But i'll leave it there, because my fault, we are off topic here.  

Edited August 10, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Voice_of_Reason]

20 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

You are high on Warren Sharp I've gathered from some posts.  He's obsessed with team's schedules let alone thinks they are meaningless right now.

I do like Sharp.  I think he's very bright, extremely detailed, and puts in an enormous amount of work.

 

However, the way he does his schedule rankings, unless I'm mistaken, is at least partially based off of Vegas odds.  I think he also factors a number of other factors, like extra rest, playing teams off of bye weeks, maybe even miles traveled, etc.  Maybe he factors those in, maybe he doesn't, I'm not sure.  But he certainly talks about them, and pays attention to them. Those things are all extraordinarily insightful.  

 

But the Vegas Odds thing is a mistake.  The over/under numbers set by Vegas are:

1. Not intended to actually predict how good teams are, they are meant to drive even betting from the public on both sides.  Public perception is factored into the odds.

2. Not extremely accurate when viewed in hindsight. I don't remember where I did it, but I posted somewhere that 1/3 of the teams from last year, Vegas was off by 3+ games, 1/3, they were almost bang-on, and 1/3 they were off by 1-2 games.  In a 17 game season, being off 3+ games is fairly significant.  And being off by 3+ games for 1/3 of the league basically, to me, renders them useless as a predictor.  

 

For years and years I have just refused to play the schedule game.  Sometimes it works out the way you think it will, sometimes it doesn't. There are always teams which come out of nowhere to have great seasons, and others that were expected to have great seasons who tank.  For whatever reason.  And if you have any of those teams on your schedule, it gets harder/easier depending.  

 

The NFL is just such a week to week league, it's really tough to tell what's going to happen.  

 

So, my general approach has always been everything will remain about the same absent some changes either positive or negative.  A 1.5 game improvement or regression is very minor. 

21 hours ago, MartinC said:

A lot could happen this season - good or bad. Hard to predict. One thing I am very confident about though is we will not run the swinging gate even once let along on consecutive plays!

 

There have been lots of low points in the Dan Snyder era, but that was right now there with the worst.

What's really interesting is if they set up for the Swinging Gate once, got the TO, and then just went on and ran a "regular" play after that, it's a "win" because they forced a TO.

 

By running it AFTER the TO, it was the absolute dumbest decision in the history of football. 

[TheShredder]

6 hours ago, samy316 said:

 

Nobody should count on Thomas, with his injury history.  His one breakout season was almost three years ago now.  It astounds me that the FO did basically nothing to address the TE situation in the offseason, especially in the draft.  TE is almost as big a question mark as the OL is this year.  TE's are an important feature of EB's offense, so I'm particularly shocked that no action was taken this offseason to address this important position of need.

The only thing that I wouldn't count on is Thomas missing Week 1. They were set at TE until Rogers went to IR. They can add a guy after cuts and get good value on a TE4.

Logan's had a strained calf that kept him out a month, from week 4 to week 8 last year. So, after he came back, the pass catcher needed a week to get back in the groove but he was fine. Point being, if you write off the ACL, in the other span of playing time, he's played banged up at times, like everyone else and sat out a stretch for a torn calf. Now, they know exactly what to do. They know if he says it's like last time or a lesser degree, he'll be fine week 1. Logan knows what up. He knows he's an $8.3M cap hit next year and EBs scheme favors TEs. I don't view him as breaking down. Likely overuse related and soreness in a calf, so they shut him down with his PMHx.

 

[Chris 44]

Kinda excited that Chick Hernandez, B Mitch and Paulson will be calling the pre season games. Should be interesting to say the least.

[DWinzit]

4 hours ago, TheShredder said:

The only thing that I wouldn't count on is Thomas missing Week 1. They were set at TE until Rogers went to IR. They can add a guy after cuts and get good value on a TE4.

Logan's had a strained calf that kept him out a month, from week 4 to week 8 last year. So, after he came back, the pass catcher needed a week to get back in the groove but he was fine. Point being, if you write off the ACL, in the other span of playing time, he's played banged up at times, like everyone else and sat out a stretch for a torn calf. Now, they know exactly what to do. They know if he says it's like last time or a lesser degree, he'll be fine week 1. Logan knows what up. He knows he's an $8.3M cap hit next year and EBs scheme favors TEs. I don't view him as breaking down. Likely overuse related and soreness in a calf, so they shut him down with his PMHx.

 

The players that I gave up counting on being in the line up on any week are Thomas, Samuel and Charles. 

 

Most of the fan base feels the same, so strange that all three are really expected to start and be big contributors. (yes I know Samuel is probably WR3) 

 

Crazy the faith that the staff put into these 3.

[dunfer]

12 hours ago, KDawg said:

I always agree with this mentality...

 

It's the way it would be in a perfect world for sure.

 

But..

 

Your mentality will shift significantly if our starting RG or LT or QB go down in the 3rd quarter of a meaningless pre-season game. 

hopefully they score a touchdown on the first drive

 

If its 3rd quarter, yeah lets regroup in the locker room

[Califan007 The Constipated]

1 hour ago, DWinzit said:

The players that I gave up counting on being in the line up on any week are Thomas, Samuel and Charles. 

 

Most of the fan base feels the same, so strange that all three are really expected to start and be big contributors. (yes I know Samuel is probably WR3) 

 

Crazy the faith that the staff put into these 3.

 

Didn't Samuel only miss one game last year?...

[Voice_of_Reason]

29 minutes ago, Califan007 The Constipated said:

 

Didn't Samuel only miss one game last year?...

I didn't think he missed any….

[KDawg]

Fears/distrust are not always logical. People are more afraid of flying than driving somewhere yet more people die in car crashes than in plane crashes.

 

Samuel’s injury stung a lot of folks. Last year was better but it’s tough to trust it.

 

I get it.

[Skinsinparadise]

16 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

 

 

For years and years I have just refused to play the schedule game.  Sometimes it works out the way you think it will, sometimes it doesn't. There are always teams which come out of nowhere to have great seasons, and others that were expected to have great seasons who tank.  For whatever reason.  And if you have any of those teams on your schedule, it gets harder/easier depending.  

 

 

In the age of QBs and more on point QBs being protected from injuries because of the new rules over the years, it comes off more reliable IMO than the past.  The odds for example that Josh Allen, Aaron Rodgers don't play are slim.   Josh Allen for example missed 1 game in the last 4 years.

 

So no i don't think on paper having an incredibly weak schedule last year versus having an incredible strong schedule this year on paper means nothing. Warren Sharp isn't the only dude who focuses on the dynamic.  So does Football Outsiders anong others and in their case if I recall they use DVOA numbers to determine it.  Yeah Sharp factors rest among other things.    He doesn't love our scchedule.  He gets into matchups in our case in his prediction about this team and referenced how favorable our matchups were on many counts last year and how unfavorable they are this year.

 

Also if you dive a bit deeper and put more thought into it, the weaker teams should be stronger this year for the most part.  Denver not going to be stronger with Sean Payton?  Seattle is a good young team.  Buffalo is stacked and is young.  Dolphins are stacked with young talent.   Jets not going to be better with Aaron Rodgers versus Zach Wilson, etc?  You can say we don't know if Aaron Rodgers for sure will out play Zach Wilson but what are the odds?

 

You come off big on we don't know until we know especially if the point serves your prediction-slant.  Maybe Wylie is better than so so, Heck for all we know maybe he is an All Pro RT this season?  How can we argue since we don't know?   But the past is typically the prologue even if its an imperfect indicator.

 

As for the season, yeah I do think it will matter playing teams like the Bills versus teams like the Texans regardless of whether we can predict injuries.

 

If Sharp is relying on Vegas he sure seems to agree with them, some of his points

 

 

 

 

Edited August 11, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[redskinss]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

So no i don't think on paper having an incredibly weak schedule last year versus having an incredible strong schedule this year on paper means nothing

9 of our opponents last year made the playoffs, 9 of our opponents from this year made the playoffs last year so on paper the schedule difficulty is the same.

That said i agree with you that in theory many of our opponents should be better than last year but I also agree with v.o.r that we don't know which ones it will be but some of our difficult opponents from last year will be worse.

Will the eagles have a superbowl hangover?

Will the mcarthy wheels finally come of in Dallas.

Will daboll have a sophomore slump, etc etc.

If there's one thing predictable about the outcome of an nfl season its that its unpredictable. 

Edited August 11, 2023 by redskinss

[Conn]

29 minutes ago, redskinss said:

9 of our opponents last year made the playoffs, 9 of our opponents from this year made the playoffs last year so on paper the schedule difficulty is the same.

This is taking something that’s already reductive (but arguably useful) and making it even more reductive. And you just made the assumption at the drop of a hat and moved on lol, based your whole post on it. This is what makes discussion difficult, even between rational people. This first sentence does not lead to the conclusion that you immediately drew.

[redskinss]

11 minutes ago, Conn said:

This first sentence does not lead to the conclusion that you immediately drew.

Neither does assuming that Aaron rodgers and Sean payton are going to make their teams better, that's the conclusion that others have drawn.

That's the point of mine and v.o.r's argument is that it's all speculative and every year it changes for almost every team from the preseason to the end ofnthe season when you can make an accurate list of strength of schedule. 

[Skinsinparadise]

11 minutes ago, redskinss said:

Neither does assuming that Aaron rodgers and Sean payton are going to make their teams better, that's the conclusion that others have drawn.

 

 

Sarcasm here to make a point not directed at you.

 

Zach Wilson > or =  Aaron Rodgers

Hacket > = Sean Payton.

 

Maybe.  But very doubtful.  all the stats that Warren Sharp and Football Outsiders had among others is nonsense and what's up is down and what's down will be up this season.  Maybe.  But very doubtful.

 

But to bank on it as a wash and meaningless ala @Voice_of_Reason did I think is wild at worst in my opinion but at best he can't say he's a Warren Sharp guy anymore -- I've listened to Sharp enough on radio braodcasts that not only would he disagree with him but he'd clown on @Voice_of_Reason's point.    He's all about matchups as I presented and playing the odds even though the odds of course are imperfect.  Imperfect doesn't equal meaningless.

Edited August 11, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Conn]

7 minutes ago, redskinss said:

Neither does assuming that Aaron rodgers and Sean payton are going to make their teams better, that's the conclusion that others have drawn.

That's the point of mine and v.o.r's argument is that it's all speculative and every year it changes for almost every team from the preseason to the end ofnthe season when you can make an accurate list of strength of schedule. 

Sorry man, this is delusional.

 

Saying what you said about the same number of playoff teams on the schedule this year and last year equaling a similarly difficult schedule—it’s empty air. There’s nothing there. It’s surface level and, I assume, meant to bolster the sort of positivity you want to see around here. But it’s vapor. There are plenty of real reasons to be optimistic, that isn’t one. 

 

Someone else saying “we can safely assume that teams that added Sean Payton and Aaron Rodgers will probably be better, maybe significantly so” is not equivalent to that at all. 
 

Putting those two attempts at analysis on the same level is just not logical. There’s really nowhere to go from here in the conversation, I’m not trying to be a jerk. I just couldn’t ignore that quote for some reason. You have plenty of good posts about the upcoming season, this just wasn’t one. I’ve had more than my fair share of bad takes, I sympathize. 

[Skinsinparadise]

Based on wins, 2022, was the 5th easiest in the NFL.  140 wins.

 

 

 

[redskinss]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Zach Wilson > or =  Aaron Rodgers

Hacket > = Sean Payton.

 

Maybe all the stats that Warren Sharp and Football Outsiders had among others is nonsense and what's up is down and what's down will be up this season

I agree with those two things it's just that it's speculative and every year the strength of schedule changes radically from the beginning of the season to the end.

If you had the broncos on your schedule last year there was a good chance you were penciling in a loss, great defense and now a bright young up and coming offensive head coach with a future hall of famer at quarterback, their going to be special. 

Well it turns out they sucked, it happens every year both ways.

It's fun to talk about and it's fun to speculate and it's also sound reasoning but it's also wrong as often as it's right.

[Skinsinparadise]

9 minutes ago, Conn said:

 

 

Someone else saying “we can safely assume that teams that added Sean Payton and Aaron Rodgers will probably be better, maybe significantly so” is not equivalent to that at all. 

 

Agree and that point is gravy not the meat of it.  Simply put, the records of the teams they are playing this season are a decent amount better than last year.  Using last years wins and loses. 

 

As far as the narratives goes it makes it feel even worse.  And we aren't taking a big leap about the AFC East and NFC West not being the easiest divisions and for that matter the NFC East.   But even if all of that weren't true, its judged typically by their records.

 

And Warren Sharp went deeper as to how favorable their matchups were last year versus this year.  Sometimes when things look better than they look, Sharp will point that out.  in this case, his point is the matchups for this team in his mind look even worse if you dig deep.  Sharp isn't always right of course.  But he claims to be right more than wrong to the extent that his site has becomes somewhat of a gambiling heaven-angle that he likes to push.

 

So whether its just straight forward numbers, the schedule is much tougher.  The naratives and the deeper dives aren't needed to make the case but if we use them it only presents things worse not better.

Edited August 11, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[redskinss]

15 minutes ago, Conn said:

Sorry man, this is delusional.

 

Saying what you said about the same number of playoff teams on the schedule this year and last year equaling a similarly difficult schedule—it’s empty air. There’s nothing there. It’s surface level and, I assume, meant to bolster the sort of positivity you want to see around here. But it’s vapor. There are plenty of real reasons to be optimistic, that isn’t one. 

 

Someone else saying “we can safely assume that teams that added Sean Payton and Aaron Rodgers will probably be better, maybe significantly so” is not equivalent to that at all. 
 

Putting those two attempts at analysis on the same level is just not logical. There’s really nowhere to go from here in the conversation, I’m not trying to be a jerk. I just couldn’t ignore that quote for some reason. You have plenty of good posts about the upcoming season, this just wasn’t one. I’ve had more than my fair share of bad takes, I sympathize. 

I think you're just reading me wrong.

It's sound reasoning to assume that rodgers and payton will improve their teams but how many times do we have to see dream teams crash or things like Russell Wilson and the broncos last year happen before we realize that even the most sound predictions and reasons behind those predictions are often wrong.

At least enough to say that if those two are accurate than history would suggest others are inaccurate. 

If you think that laying out on paper which teams are gonna do what based on the most accurate information currently available is how the season is going to play out then I'm not the one who's delusional. 

 

I'm not saying I don't agree with the reasoning just that I don't put much stock in it.

Edited August 11, 2023 by redskinss

[Skinsinparadise]

17 minutes ago, redskinss said:

I agree with those two things it's just that it's speculative and every year the strength of schedule changes radically from the beginning of the season to the end.

If you had the broncos on your schedule last year there was a good chance you were penciling in a loss, great defense and now a bright young up and coming offensive head coach with a future hall of famer at quarterback, their going to be special. 

Well it turns out they sucked, it happens every year both ways.

It's fun to talk about and it's fun to speculate and it's also sound reasoning but it's also wrong as often as it's right.

 

2 years ago the schedule looked tough.  It indeed was.   Last year the schedule looked easy.  That's what happened. 

 

There is always a chance that something wacky happens.  It might look like the Bills are tougher than the Texans but as far as we know Josh Allen might fall off the cliff and Stroud instantly becomes the next Tom Brady.   Or name that wild thing.  The odds that something wild happens on the journey is very good.  The odds that a lot of wild things happen are pretty low.  Not impossible but low.

 

In another lifetime, I used to be a teachers assistant in statistics, and my professor was really big on the science of predicting outcomes.  Yeah stats are a lousy predictor of small sample events on the road to a destination.  The road is uneven typically.  But ultimately its a good predictor of the actual destination.  Not perfect.  But usually close.

 

Weird things happen.  Variables can change.  But its still a better predictor than nothing.  It's not meaningless or worthless.  There is a reason why predictions are made using past data in almost every field imaginable.  

Edited August 11, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Conn]

9 minutes ago, redskinss said:

I think you're just reading me wrong.

It's sound reasoning to assume that rodgers and payton will improve their teams but how many times do we have to see dream teams crash or things like Russell Wilson and the broncos last year happen before we realize that even the most sound predictions and reasons behind those predictions are often wrong.

At least enough to say that if those two are accurate than history would suggest others are inaccurate. 

If you think that laying out on paper which teams are gonna do what based on the most accurate information currently available is how the season is going to play out then I'm not the one who's delusional. 

 

I'm not saying I don't agree with the reasoning just that I don't put much stock in it.

You’re talking in circles.

 

You said “we played the same number of teams last year that made the playoffs, as we have on the schedule this year. So the schedule difficulty is the same”.

 

I said “that’s reductive and that’s not how that works”.

 

Then you said “how is that any different than people projecting that Rodgers or Payton will improve those teams”.

 

And I said “that’s extremely different, that’s not even the same conversation”.

 

And now you said this. 
 

It leaves me with this emotion: ???

 

I think you’re right that I’m reading you wrong, but it’s because of the sentences you typed not making sense lol. Maybe you were conflating multiple arguments you were having at the same time with what I quoted and addressed, not sure. 
 

But my point remains that your initial post I quoted about playoff teams was crazy, which is where all of this started.
 

The Rodgers/Payton stuff I understand what you mean and see some merit, but I think those offseason changes are a tad more projectable than you clearly think. It’s not perfect, skepticism is certainly warranted. But I think the process has to be “would this change more often than not improve this team? How many of those changes that more often than not would be positive, has this team had?” and go from there. It’s never going to be perfectly predictive, I just think you and VoR are both pushing the skepticism to the limit to make a point. Trying to quantify things like this is always going to have a huge margin for error, that doesn’t make the process or the outputs pointless. 

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

I think what @redskinss is banking on are the variables that can’t be ‘predicted’.  There’s always crucial injuries that derail teams, there’s a team or two that surprisingly fall off a cliff typically as a result, and one or two teams that end up in the playoffs that nobody expected.  
 

It’s why they play the games.

 

What guys like Sharp and others are doing is working on statistics and trends helping them to project what they expect to happen.  Of course they won’t be 100% accurate.  Of course their will be some surprises based on uncontrollable variables that impact things.

 

The hope is that the Commanders will defy the odds, escape the injury bug while other division foes catch it, and give us some good football to watch in December.  But make no mistake about it, it will be about defying the odds because the stats and trends don’t favor us at this time.