The Official 2023 ES Free Agency Thread... available until Free Agency 2024 begins

[Conn]

Will Hernandez seems exactly like the type of dude who could potentially hit near his ceiling with a coach like Matsko.

[KillBill26]

11 hours ago, Fan since a Fetus said:

he can’t run or jump. He called playing in the NFL a “regrettable cost.” 

If someone were to give me a contract worth $54 million guaranteed, I would gladly pledge never to run or jump again.

 

But yeah, he is done.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

1 hour ago, JSSkinz said:

I'm too lazy to do the work myself but I would be interested in seeing a list of players who need "prove it" contracts, regardless of age.  Players like Ronald Darby who show the skill set is still there but for whatever reason, the wheels came off.  I don't see any other way we get a decent player with little to no guaranteed money which is the situation we are in.

 

 

Exactly this. 
 

And it’s why I don’t understand why trading Payne ($19m) isn’t a priority. Get picks. Cheap contracts. And combine with value adds (OG Hernandez, for example) and hope for the best until next year. 
 

It’s truly a shame we are so poor. Thank god Dan is selling because we truly would continue to be a poverty franchise forever if he didn’t. 

[FootballZombie]

56 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

And it’s why I don’t understand why trading Payne ($19m) isn’t a priority. Get picks. Cheap contracts.

 

Here is a scary thought experiment about the return for Payne.

 

Payne costs 19 Mil in cap and 19 Mil in cash.

 

If you trade him for a first, that rookie gets a fully G deal. As long as its above pick.... 27-ish it will be 14 Mil plus cash at signing, but he only costs like 2 mil vs the cap. Then you gotta make up the cap diff from losing payne, an additional 17Mil, and unless you can do that handing out entirely no G money, it is very likely we spend more cash trading Payne than keeping him.

 

Even if you don't get a first back, you still gotta fill his vacated cap hole so trading payne is not a clear cut savings, as it simply makes a cap void that will need to be refilled.

 

Darn'd if you do, darned if you don't. Fun.

Edited March 9, 2023 by FootballZombie

[JamesMadisonSkins]

6 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

 

Here is a scary thought experiment about the return for Payne.

 

Payne costs 19 Mil in cap and 19 Mil in cash.

 

If you trade him for a first, that rookie gets a fully G deal. As long as its above pick.... 27-ish it will be 14 Mil plus cash at signing, but he only costs like 2 mil vs the cap. Then you gotta make up the cap diff from losing payne, an additional 17Mil, and unless you can do that handing out entirely no G money, it is very likely we spend more cash trading Payne than keeping him.

 

Even if you don't get a first back, you still gotta fill his vacated cap hole so the idea of trading payne is not a clear cut savings, as it simply makes a cap void that will need to be refilled.

 

Darn'd if you do, darned if you don't. Fun.

Why do we have to replace the salary delta of Payne? If we can’t spend Gtd money this year, just take what your cap allocation to Payne is and roll it into next year and have boatloads of cash for the new owner to dole out contracts with guarantees. 
 

Are we sure that draft pick $$ has to go into escrow anyway? I don’t doubt we have $20-30m to hand out for escrow signings. I do doubt we have the ability to hand out $50m guaranteed contracts. Who knows.

[ultravin]

if they were hoping to trade Payne, then they should have used a non exclusive tag on him.  that way, if payne decides to go, and washington doesn't want to match it, then they can get 2 first round picks.  plus, it would have been a less cap charge than the exclusive tag

 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

1 minute ago, ultravin said:

if they were hoping to trade Payne, then they should have used a non exclusive tag on him.  that way, if payne decides to go, and washington doesn't want to match it, then they can get 2 first round picks.  plus, it would have been a less cap charge than the exclusive tag

 

Nobody would do a deal with Payne for that price so it’s pointless. This way you can give him permission to negotiate with a trade partner. I believe nfl required 2 firsts regardless in the non exclusive deals. Teams can negotiate off the exclusive to reach a more equitable deal. 

[markmills67]

So if we trade Payne we are still have the 19m cap on our books?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[KDawg]

7 hours ago, ultravin said:

if they were hoping to trade Payne, then they should have used a non exclusive tag on him.  that way, if payne decides to go, and washington doesn't want to match it, then they can get 2 first round picks.  plus, it would have been a less cap charge than the exclusive tag

 

 

They did put the non-exclusive tag on him. No one received the exclusive this cycle. 

 

Only four players have ever been hit with an exclusive. Brees, Von Miller, LeVeon Bell and Kirk Cousins. The latest usage of that tag was 2017 to Kirk/Bell.

 

Whenever someone is tagged, assume its non-exclusive unless otherwise noted. 

[Koolblue13]

8 hours ago, FootballZombie said:

 

Here is a scary thought experiment about the return for Payne.

 

Payne costs 19 Mil in cap and 19 Mil in cash.

 

If you trade him for a first, that rookie gets a fully G deal. As long as its above pick.... 27-ish it will be 14 Mil plus cash at signing, but he only costs like 2 mil vs the cap. Then you gotta make up the cap diff from losing payne, an additional 17Mil, and unless you can do that handing out entirely no G money, it is very likely we spend more cash trading Payne than keeping him.

 

Even if you don't get a first back, you still gotta fill his vacated cap hole so trading payne is not a clear cut savings, as it simply makes a cap void that will need to be refilled.

 

Darn'd if you do, darned if you don't. Fun.

While losing a guy who's only 25 and just had 11.5 sacks at DT, after his first offseason training for it. 

 

It's a small gain for a guy who's on his way to becoming one of the best DTs in the league.

[Skinsinparadise]

11 hours ago, Conn said:

Will Hernandez seems exactly like the type of dude who could potentially hit near his ceiling with a coach like Matsko.

 

I'd be intrigued. 

 

I loved him before the draft.  I was wrong, he wasn't that good in NY.  But looks like its coming together for him now.  In college, the dude was a people mover with a fun mean streak. 

[Est.1974]

We should be in a good position to make 2 or 3 strong FA signings. Deals that average in the 10-15mil per year range. If we choose to anyway. 

[ultravin]

2 hours ago, markmills67 said:

So if we trade Payne we are still have the 19m cap on our books?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

it shouldn't unless we match another teams offer

 

Edited March 9, 2023 by ultravin

[JamesMadisonSkins]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I'd be intrigued. 

 

I loved him before the draft.  I was wrong, he wasn't that good in NY.  But looks like its coming together for him now.  In college, the dude was a people mover with a fun mean streak. 

 

And based on what we know of what Bienieme likes in his OL-men, it's big nasties with mean streaks. I would think Hernandez, if they think he has a chance to be any good, would be near the top of the list of FA targets on the "prove it deal" list. 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

I had way too much fun with this. I'll probably do more of them as there are so many variables and one signing or cut can alter the rest of the off-season. But here's the 3/9 version ...

 

Mock Off-Season:

 

Free Agency/Pre-Draft:

*Trade: Daron Payne to the Bears for pick #33 (acquired from Houston in trade-down from #1), free up $19m, total cap space into FA = $36m

Sign LG Will Hernandez – 2 years, $7 million

Sign CB Shaquille Griffin – 2 years, $10 million

Sign LB TJ Edwards – 4 years, $44 million

Sign QB Marcus Mariota – 2 years, $10 million

Cap Impact: $17m spent on 2023 Cap – remaining cap $19m

 

Draft (using PFN Simulation)

*Trade #16 to Dallas for #26 and #58

Draft picks: 1(26), 2(33), 2(47), 2(58), 3(97), 4(118), 5(152), 6(193), 6(215), 7(235)

1.26: Dawand Jones, OT Ohio State

2.33: Darnell Washington, TE Georgia

2.47: John Michael Schmitz, C Minnesota

2.58: Deonte Banks, CB Maryland

3.97: Ji’Ayir Brown, S Penn State

4.118: Byron Young, DT Alabama

5.152: Ali Gaye, DE LSU

6.184: Deuce Vaugn, RB Kansas State

6.215: Cam Jones, LB Indiana

7.235: Malik Cunningham, QB Louisville

 

Post-Draft Cuts:

Chase Roullier ($4m), Logan Thomas ($5m), JD McKissic ($2m), Andrew Norwell ($3m)

Remaining Cap: $33m

Remaining Cap After Draft Pool: $21m,

In-season Spending: $5m 

Cap Rolled into 2024: $16m

Projected 2024 Cap Space: $154m base, $16m rollover, less $41m on 2023 signings and draft pool = $129m

 

Depth Chart – Offense (25)

QB: Sam Howell, Marcus Mariota, Malik Cunningham (R)

RB: Brian Robinson, Antonio Gibson, Jonathan Williams, Deuce Vaughn (R)

WR: Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, Curtis Samuel, Dyami Brown, Dax Milne

TE: Darnell Washington (R), Cole Turner, John Bates, Armani Rodgers

LT: Charles Leno, Cornelius Lucas

LG: Will Hernandez, Chris Paul

OC: John Michael Schmitz (R), Tyler Larsen

RG: Sam Cosmi

RT: Dawand Jones (R), Saahdiq Charles

 

Depth Chart – Defense (24)

DE: Chase Young, James Smith-Williams, Shaka Toney

DT: Jonathan Allen, John Ridgeway

DT: Phidarian Mathis, Bryan Young (R)

DE: Montez Sweat, Ali Gaye (R), William Bradley-King

ILB: Jamin Davis, David Mayo

ILB: TJ Edwards, Cam Jones (R)

CB: Kendall Fuller, Deonte Banks (R), Tariq Castro-Fields

CB: Benjamin St. Juste, Shaquille Griffin, Danny Johnson

SS: Kamren Curl, Jeremy Reaves

FS: Darrick Forest, Percy Butler, Ji’Ayer Brown (R)

 

Going into 2024 we'd potentially release Charles Leno ($12m savings). We'd have Chase Young, Montez Sweat, Kam Curl, Kendall Fuller as primary FAs that would need to be brought back. But plenty of dough for new owner to have some fun and build off the 2023 off-season

Edited March 9, 2023 by JamesMadisonSkins

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

What about Chad Henne? Backup on the Chiefs, so knows Bienemy. He's old as ****, so he'll cost nothing and he's not going to steal reps from Howell in training camp.

[Est.1974]

Been looking at some he lesser ranked OL.

 

Max Scharping, waived by Houston after 3 seasons, spent last season at Cincy as a back-up. Started in the playoffs I believe.
 

Matt Pryor, ex Eagle, traded to Indy after a couple of seasons. 

 

Any views or are they both deemed to stink 

 

I’ll get off the fence and say I’d have a strong look at Max Scharping as an option. Clearly  we need to go hard in the draft, plus potentially add a higher tier FA, but let’s be honest, the current batch completely sucks. Well half of it does.

33 minutes ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

What about Chad Henne? Backup on the Chiefs, so knows Bienemy. He's old as ****, so he'll cost nothing and he's not going to steal reps from Howell in training camp.

I thought he was retiring...

[RabidFan]

59 minutes ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

What about Chad Henne? Backup on the Chiefs, so knows Bienemy. He's old as ****, so he'll cost nothing and he's not going to steal reps from Howell in training camp.

 

I think he retired after the SB since as you said "he's old as ****".  

 

Mariota quit on and left the Falcons after he was benched so don't know how he'd act if we named Howell the starter.  He's under 30 so probably wants to start somewhere.

Edited March 9, 2023 by RabidFan
spelling

[Est.1974]

2 minutes ago, RabidFan said:

 

I think he retired after the SB since as you said "he's old as ****".  

 

Mariota quit on and left the Falcons after he was benched so don't know how he'd act if we named Howell the starter.  He's under 30 so probably wants to start somewhere.

Mariota must be a consideration. Not sure he’s got many open doors to start unless everyone bombs the Jets off  I thought I read he had a knackered knee as well. It’s not really that clear with him.

[Skinsinparadise]

Expect Commanders to bargain hunt in Dan Snyder's (likely) last free agent foray

 

SHBURN, Va. -- When Washington Commanders owner Dan Snyder bought the team in 1999, he swung big on free agents. His first free agent class 23 years ago included future hall of famers Deion Sanders and Bruce Smith. Later, Snyder gave out the first $100-million contract, to Albert Haynesworth, in 2009.

 

Snyder will not exit the NFL in the same fashion, assuming the team indeed is sold this offseason, as multiple sources still believe will happen.

After Sanders signed with Washington in 2000, he proclaimed that Snyder shopped at Versace while other owners went to Wal-Mart. This offseason, though, they’re looking to find a good bargain on quality players -- no Versace, but perhaps a step above Wal-Mart prices.

With free agency starting next week, Washington has approximately $15 million in cap space. It has multiple needs plus a desire to retain some key free agents. The Commanders could free up more money by releasing more players or even restructuring contracts. But some of those moves will depend on who they might be able to get in free agency.

Here’s their financial objectives over the next several months:

Find another quarterback

Washington will start offseason workouts in April with second-year quarterback Sam Howell as "QB 1," as Commanders coach Ron Rivera has called him. Howell still will have to earn the job after that point, though he’ll do so as the favorite. He’s the only quarterback under contract right now, so Washington must add more to the position and find someone who could push him for the job.

There’s a good chance Washington will end up with a familiar face for that role: Taylor Heinicke. The Commanders have always considered him a quality backup; Heinicke likes Howell and would like to return -- even if he’s a backup.

But if they can’t work out a deal with him, Washington could opt for veterans at the level of Andy Dalton or Jacoby Brissett. In an ideal world, the Commanders would sign a backup in the $5-million range.

 

Mid-level shopping

Washington has to find more help along the offensive line, linebacker and cornerback in particular. The Commanders could opt to sign a high-priced offensive tackle. However, one source said, if they did that, they’d be unable to address other holes elsewhere. In that scenario, filling one hole would still leave two or three others.

It’s most likely they’ll look for some players at these spots in the range of $5 million to $8 million per year.

Andrew Wylie played both guard and tackle with the Kansas City Chiefs the past five years while starting 59 games. Washington’s new offensive coordinator, Eric Bieniemy, knows him well. A player such as Wylie, who signed a one-year deal for $2.5 million last offseason, would provide flexibility. Guard Will Hernandez is coming off a solid season for Arizona and also would not be expensive.

The Commanders also will look hard at the draft to fill other spots along the offensive line. They still must decide if they want Sam Cosmi to play guard or tackle; some of that will depend on what happens in free agency and the draft.

It helps, too, that the draft is strong with linemen and corners in particular.

https://www.espn.com/blog/washington-commanders/post/_/id/42820/expect-commanders-to-bargain-hunt-in-dan-snyders-likely-last-free-agent-foray

[Est.1974]

Links to Engram in Baltimore in 2021. Former 3rd rounder. Would be solid offseason competition to the group at minimum cost.....that’s not my analysis, I’ll find the link to add.
 

TE Josh Oliver (UFA):

2022 Key Stats:  17 games (9 starts); 14 receptions, 149 yards, 2 TDs; 46.9% of Offensive snaps.

2021 Key Stats:  14 games (1 start); 9 receptions, 66 yards, 0 TDs; 12.48% of Offensive snaps.

Analysis: I have to admit, I didn’t see Oliver’s breakout coming at all. I didn’t even think he’d make the final 53-man roster. However, kudos to the coaches for keeping him, Oliver was a key part of the TE rotation that was in flux due to injuries all season. Ironically, he’s a player who has never stayed healthy, and yet he’s played most of the games in Baltimore. Oliver is a stiff route runner and receiver, but he’s a big target and has pretty sure hands. Where he has really stepped up is as a blocker. He has developed into a really solid two-way player. Talent was never the question with him, it was always whether he could stay healthy. So far, so good.

2022 Contract: Oliver played 2022 on the last year of his 4-year rookie contract. Oliver counted $1.075M on the 2022 Cap.

Cap Implications:  Oliver was a revelation this past season when he was forced to see more playing time due to injuries to fellow TEs Nick Boyle and Charlie Kolar. With Andrews, Likely and Kolar set to return, it remains to be seen how Oliver might fit into the Ravens plans, but if a reunion is warranted, Oliver is likely to receive just a 1-year deal for the minimum or something slightly above that.

 

5. Josh Oliver, TE

If Powers wasn’t the most improved Raven, Oliver probably was. The fourth-year tight end, who the Ravens acquired from the Jacksonville Jaguars before the 2021 season for a conditional seventh-round draft pick, finished 2022 with 14 catches for 149 yards and two scores, surpassing his total receptions over his first three NFL seasons. His greatest value was as a blocker for one of the league’s best running games. Oliver’s blocking ability makes him more valuable to the Ravens than most teams, but he’s also a big and athletic target who is just 25 years old and has some upside. Don’t rule out the Ravens trying to retain him, even with a roster that includes Pro Bowl tight end Mark Andrews and two 2022 fourth-round picks in tight ends Charlie Kolar and Isaiah Likely.

[Skinsinparadise]

3 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

Links to Engram in Baltimore in 2021. Former 3rd rounder. Would be solid offseason competition to the group at minimum cost.....that’s not my analysis, I’ll find the link to add.
 

TE Josh Oliver (UFA):

2022 Key Stats:  17 games (9 starts); 14 receptions, 149 yards, 2 TDs; 46.9% of Offensive snaps.

2021 Key Stats:  14 games (1 start); 9 receptions, 66 yards, 0 TDs; 12.48% of Offensive snaps.

Analysis: I have to admit, I didn’t see Oliver’s breakout coming at all. I didn’t even think he’d make the final 53-man roster. However, kudos to the coaches for keeping him, Oliver was a key part of the TE rotation that was in flux due to injuries all season. Ironically, he’s a player who has never stayed healthy, and yet he’s played most of the games in Baltimore. Oliver is a stiff route runner and receiver, but he’s a big target and has pretty sure hands. Where he has really stepped up is as a blocker. He has developed into a really solid two-way player. Talent was never the question with him, it was always whether he could stay healthy. So far, so good.

2022 Contract: Oliver played 2022 on the last year of his 4-year rookie contract. Oliver counted $1.075M on the 2022 Cap.

Cap Implications:  Oliver was a revelation this past season when he was forced to see more playing time due to injuries to fellow TEs Nick Boyle and Charlie Kolar. With Andrews, Likely and Kolar set to return, it remains to be seen how Oliver might fit into the Ravens plans, but if a reunion is warranted, Oliver is likely to receive just a 1-year deal for the minimum or something slightly above that.

 

 

 

[Est.1974]

I think I’m cutting Logan Thomas 

[RWJ]

8 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

I think I’m cutting Logan Thomas 

I agree we should BUT RR loves the guy.  We keep him I say he plays 5 games maximum and will be on IR the rest of the year.  

[Skinsinparadise]

I take Keim's article as:

 

A.  they won't sit out FA but no major splashes

 

B. Keim rarely name drops for no reason so I'd guess Will Hernandez and Wylie are legit targets