The Game Prediction Thread - The Commanders vs. The Vikings ~ Cousins Bringing his Gas Grill!

[Stone Cold]

9 minutes ago, Cooleyfan1993 said:

Dotson still being out is starting to anger me……

We’re winning and he’s recovering from something that, if not nipped in the bud, could linger all season.  I’d say we’re playing it safe and rightfully so.  

[Cooleyfan1993]

8 minutes ago, Stone Cold said:

We’re winning and he’s recovering from something that, if not nipped in the bud, could linger all season.  I’d say we’re playing it safe and rightfully so.  

Yeah, I get that, it just angers me for selfish reasons 😂 I want more Dotson touchdowns darn it!!!!!

[RandyHolt]

41 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

I get what you’re saying, Gibson has looked better running the ball than Robinson. 

 

I have some theories, and I’d be curious to get validation (or correction!) from our resident experts:

I think, to some extent, it’s expected that Gibson would look like the better runner.  When he’s in the game, defenses are more focused on preventing him from running it outside, whereas it’s the reverse for Robinson.  So, on runs between the tackles, Robinson is more likely to face more traffic.  Specific to Gibson, you’re leaning into what he does best (using his speed to capture the edge, getting him into space), and lightening the middle for when he runs between the tackles (in theory, and in comparison to Robinson).

 

Then look at it from a PA perspective.  I’m guessing here, but I think the majority of PA passing is off runs between the tackles, and that there’s a good reason for that - the oline is still in front of the qb (protecting him) vs flowing away from him, the qb has the option to scramble left, right or up the middle (if you get the D flowing one way, that avenue is a no go for scrambling), and you ideally get the linebackers crashing down to open up the middle of the field.  And lastly, you’d probably prefer your back in the middle (after faking a handoff) - able to hit a block anywhere along the line - vs only being able to cover one side.

 

Lastly, you’re reducing the load on Gibson (not to mention reducing his chances at fumbling), leading to less wear and tear from inside runs and collisions in pass pro.  You’re therefore keeping him fresher in-game, and game to game, which likely means a bit more explosion/speed when his number is called (run or pass).

 

 

As to 1st and 10, I believe Turner used to lean pass, but in order to commit to a run heavy offense, he has had to lean more towards running on 1st.  Hard to say for sure, but I’m guessing that (along with some qb scrambles thrown in) has tired out defenses a bit and lead to more success offensively later in games.  

Great post and but want to add one thought. 

 

Eventually with BRob the between the tackles 1st quarter RB - it telegraphs the offense and becomes too easy to defend and he'll end up with a 2 yard avg again.  When Gibson is in the backfield, its a run wide / pass. If we are hell bent on using Brian a lot he needs to get a few targets or we need to pass with him in the game. 

 

Turner just can't quite seem to get the most out of our players. We see one game where a guy will be used repeatedly and unstoppable (Samuel game 1) but then that feature one unstoppable guy offense is gone for 6 weeks and our offense looks offensive. It seemed to return with Gibson last week. Why can't we ever have an explosive offense? We sure seem to struggle to score early in games and are always losing which leads to Moxie comebacks but we cannot count on that every week.

 

 

Edited November 3, 2022 by RandyHolt

[skinny21]

36 minutes ago, RandyHolt said:

Great post and but want to add one thought. 

 

Eventually with BRob the between the tackles 1st quarter RB - it telegraphs the offense and becomes too easy to defend and he'll end up with a 2 yard avg again.  When Gibson is in the backfield, its a run wide / pass. If we are hell bent on using Brian a lot he needs to get a few targets or we need to pass with him in the game. 

 

Turner just can't quite seem to get the most out of our players. We see one game where a guy will be used repeatedly and unstoppable (Samuel game 1) but then that feature one unstoppable guy offense is gone for 6 weeks and our offense looks offensive. It seemed to return with Gibson last week. Why can't we ever have an explosive offense? We sure seem to struggle to score early in games and are always losing which leads to Moxie comebacks but we cannot count on that every week.

 

 

Thanks.

 

Yep, haven’t seen Robinson utilized in the pass game much.  I 1) have my suspicions that Turner would send him on routes more often if our pass blocking wasn’t so bad, and 2) know (or rather I believe he’s talked about it IIRC) Turner is concerned about tendencies, but I don’t know if he’s more about avoiding them altogether, or more like (my impression of) Gruden - set up the tendency and then break it in key spots.

 

I’m mixed on Turner in general.  I mean, most OC’s I can only tell you if they’re doing a good job based on if the offense is producing.  Harder to tell with Turner considering QB issues and now oline issues.  I’ve definitely seen some specific things I’ve liked and some that I haven’t.

To me, the wildcard is running the Air Coryell system in general.  On one hand, I’d assume defenses are less accustomed to it, on the other hand, it seems like a tough one for qbs to pick up.  I don’t know if the latter is borne more out of the Turner’s complexity, or from how different it is from the more widespread WCO (let alone college offenses).

 

I will say that I could 100% do with removing the rb screen from the playbook (for now), and no more empty sets or shotgun on 3rd and 1/inches.

[Riggo#44]

Honestly, I totally forgot about this game. In my mind, we could lose 70-3 and we would still win.

[Wyvern]

2 hours ago, Cooleyfan1993 said:

Tress way, as in, he’s one of the maybe 3 players still here from when Kirk was here, or is that your (joking) answer for who Kirk is getting revenge against?

Cousins last season with Washington was the 2017 season.  Here's who is still around on the current Washington team that were on the team (in some fashion) when Cousins was there.

 

Jonathon Allen (his rookie year)

Chase Roulier (rookie year)

Tress Way (punter on teams w/Cousins 2014-2017)

Kendall Fuller (DB on teams w/Cousins 2016-2017)

Ryan Kerrigan ( DE  on teams w/Cousins 2012-2017. Now a part of Rivera's Coaching staff)

Randy Jordan (RB coach on teams w/Cousins 2014-2017)

.... And of course .....the owner 😬

Edited November 3, 2022 by Wyvern

[NoCalMike]

so it looks like Dotson is trending towards out, Cole Turner.....probably too?  Logan Thomas maybe......any word on Dyami Brown?

 

If the guys are still hurt, not much you can do, but it seems like it is a trend with this team that when we hear "Out 2-3 weeks" it turns into 4-6 weeks.  Is this the norm for other teams too?  I assume Doton's issue was when he tweaked the hammy trying to get back to practice.

 

The Vikings & Eagles are definitely a step way up in caliber of opponents, so it doesn't help that some of the better targets are likely not playing again for at least this week.

[c slag]

Probably would have liked to go into this game with a 4-4 record, riding a three game win streak without all the off field distractions of this week but hopefully the team keeps winning 

 The two games against Minnesota that are memorable are the NFC Championship game and the game where RGIII scored on a long touchdown run 

Maybe with all that is happening this game is also a memorable W

[hail2skins]

13 minutes ago, c slag said:

 

 The two games against Minnesota that are memorable are the NFC Championship game and the game where RGIII scored on a long touchdown run 

Maybe with all that is happening this game is also a memorable W

Riggo pounding them for a buck eighty five in the magical 82 run was sweet.

 

Also think there was a wild OT game in 86

 

And our last playoff win under Gibbs 1 at the Metrodome

[Koolblue13]

lol this is gonna be a 38-6 kinda blow out.

[Califan007 The Constipated]

8 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

lol this is gonna be a 38-6 kinda blow out.

 

I dunno...you think Heinicke can score 38 points like that?

[NFC Beast1987]

15 hours ago, Cooleyfan1993 said:

Yeah, I get that, it just angers me for selfish reasons 😂 I want more Dotson touchdowns darn it!!!!!

[Est.1974]

This game really has become a side show this week. 

[TheMalcolmConnection]

Is Chase playing or is he just active? Haven't been able to find anything confirming one way or another.

 

[veteranskinsfan]

I can see a tie.  Either 14-14 or 21-21.  It would be great if we could get the win.

[RandyHolt]

Thinking about going to the game to show support for the team being sold?  Time to take the bags off.

 

Dotson with a hammy - that sucks. I kind of thought it was more older players that had hammies CRIPPLING THEIR FANS FANTASY team. Coaches need to rip those bandaids off and IR anyone with a Hammy - it is for their own good and the player. Players rush back and cannot be trusted.

Edited November 4, 2022 by RandyHolt

[Cooleyfan1993]

1 hour ago, TheMalcolmConnection said:

Is Chase playing or is he just active? Haven't been able to find anything confirming one way or another.

 

The team started the 21 day clock on Wednesday, but I don’t see him playing this weekend quite yet. Maybe the MNF game next week?

[Mrshadow008]

19 minutes ago, RandyHolt said:

Thinking about going to the game to show support for the team being sold?  Time to take the bags off.

 

Dotson with a hammy - that sucks. I kind of thought it was more older players that had hammies CRIPPLING THEIR FANS FANTASY team. Coaches need to rip those bandaids off and IR anyone with a Hammy - it is for their own good and the player. Players rush back and cannot be trusted.

If you come make sure to wear black a) blackout game might be cool atmosphere. b ) we’re gonna confuse cousins into thinking it’s primetime 🤣 and c) it’s first part of the funeral of Dan Snyder’s tenure as owner lol

[skinny21]

I feel like the ‘revenge’ talk might be focused on the wrong person… Kevin O’Connell is gonna be motivated to mop the floor with us.  No telling how that plays out, but it’s going to be interesting.

 

Barring some surprising turnovers by the Vikes, I expect their offense to have their way with us and our offense to struggle to score (per usual).

Vikes: 28

Us: 17

 

In terms of injuries, Cole Turner practiced yesterday, so I think there’s a decent chance he’s active?  He, Holcomb and JDM are all questionable though I believe.  

Sweitzer is eligible to return next week (as well as Eifler).  Pretty certain we don’t see Chase this week, and I’d be surprised if he plays many snaps (if any) against the Eagles.  By the Houston game though, we should have Chase, Wentz, Holcomb, Sweitzer, Turner and Dotson ready to roll.

[Hdf561]

They finna drag us! It’s been a great couple weeks, but like Johnny Utah said “the ride is over” 

 

Kirk lights us up and screams “you like that” all the way back home. Plus we are wearing this dumb black uniforms. 
 

Vikes: 34

Commrags: 9

[zCommander]

10 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

lol this is gonna be a 38-6 kinda blow out.

 

Couple of things are wrong here with your fly by assessment.

 

First are you saying our D sucks that bad? Second their offense is #18 and they haven't blown-out any teams. Matter of fact lots of their games have been really close and squeaked out a win. 

 

The Eagles spanked them but they barely won against the Lions, Saints and the Bears. 

 

Now our offense does a good job I actually seeing us beating them instead. 

[Koolblue13]

1 minute ago, zCommander said:

 

Couple of things are wrong here with your fly by assessment.

 

First are you saying our D sucks that bad? Second their offense is #18 and they haven't blown-out any teams. Matter of fact lots of their games have been really close and squeaked out a win. 

 

The Eagles spanked them but they barely won against the Lions, Saints and the Bears. 

 

Now our offense does a good job I actually seeing us beating them instead. 

My fly by assessment whatever that means is that I think that our QB is so absolutely terrible that our offense won't be able to sustain drives long enough to keep the defense off the field and by the second half, they'll be so gassed that the Vikings will be able to score at will.

[sebestian]

10 hours ago, Califan007 The Constipated said:

 

I dunno...you think Heinicke can score 38 points like that?

 

Not even over a two game stretch.

[Cooleyfan1993]

4 minutes ago, sebestian said:

 

Not even over a two game stretch.

I mean, what’s 23(packers game) + 17(colts game)? 
 

that seems to be 38+ points over a two game stretch, to be fair 🤷🏻‍♂️

[skinny21]

13 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

My fly by assessment whatever that means is that I think that our QB is so absolutely terrible that our offense won't be able to sustain drives long enough to keep the defense off the field and by the second half, they'll be so gassed that the Vikings will be able to score at will.

Not the best metric probably (and obviously there’s context involved), but our offense has had 5 3-and-outs the past two weeks.  To give a bit of a reference point to that - the Vikings have had 14.

 

Not directed at you:  I think this game’s a good test for us, in terms of having a better feel for where we’re at.  Since Turner started talking about running the ball more, we ran well vs a pretty inept CHI, didn’t run much vs TEN (which I’m guessing came in large part due to our 3rd down woes), faced the worst run D (Packers), then an ok Colts team with a first time NFL qb.  Point being, comparing this game to the TEN game might be informative (to some extent).  2 pretty decent-good, and somewhat balanced, teams.