PokerPacker Posted July 12, 2022 Share Posted July 12, 2022 1 hour ago, DCSaints_fan said: I wonder why Musk didn't just create his own platform, would have cost him alot less than $44 billion. A Twitter clone probably is basically a weeks worth of effort from an experienced SDE for an initial prototype, scaling isn't even that hard of a problem anymore with the cloud providers. Filtering bots, dealing with obscenties/spam and generating revenue is obviously harder, but not so hard to handle manually during a closed beta (not sure what they do now, but thats all Facebook did early on). Does Twitter have anything besides the brand and the user base ? I guess its difficult to start a new social networking site, there is a graveyard full of them. But its also difficult to start a new car company or a new rocket company. (Yes, I realize Tesla was bought, but in the very early stages, four years before they had even shipped a car ) The value of twitter isn't the platform, it's the built-in user-base. And unlike Cars and Rockets where you are selling a product to consumers, you're dealing with a strong positive feedback loop where the value of the platform to users is dependent on the existence of other users. The USA doesn't care if other people aren't using Space-X; the value to them is from the rocket launch. A Tesla driver doesn't find they get less from a Tesla if they're the only one driving one. But a social media user on a platform without other users gets exactly what from the platform? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CousinsCowgirl84 Posted July 12, 2022 Share Posted July 12, 2022 Musk doesnt want to own a social media company, this was all about Twitter specifically. It’s personal I think. Musk has **** me money. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spaceman Spiff Posted July 12, 2022 Share Posted July 12, 2022 18 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said: It’s personal I think. Musk has **** me money. I mean, he probably would. Just don’t get your hopes up that he’d be a good father to however many kids you’d have with him. Seems to be the type to be late with child support payments etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeTheBeal! Posted July 12, 2022 Share Posted July 12, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CousinsCowgirl84 Posted July 12, 2022 Share Posted July 12, 2022 17 minutes ago, TradeTheBeal! said: I do that every night. Works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
China Posted July 12, 2022 Share Posted July 12, 2022 20 minutes ago, TradeTheBeal! said: He learned that the hard way: Quote "I tried sleeping less, but then total productivity decreases," Musk explains. That's one way of putting it. In 2018, Musk famously went off the rails while trying to get Tesla Model 3 production up to speed. First he tweeted that he had "funding secured" for taking Tesla private when that wasn't quite true. The Securities and Exchange Commission sued, and Musk and Tesla each paid a $20 million fine. Musk also had to step down as chair of Tesla's board for two years, although he remained CEO. This was just after he'd earned widespread derision for calling a man involved in rescuing boys trapped in a cave in Thailand "pedo guy" during a Twitter spat over a rescue submarine Musk designed. With his reputation in a downward spiral, Musk gave a confessional interview to The New York Times, in which he admitted that he was working 120 hours a week, went for days at a time without ever leaving the Tesla factory, and was depending on Ambien the rare times he did sleep. The combination of overwork, exhaustion, and Ambien was at least partly to blame for his self-destructive tweeting. Later that year, he reported cutting back his workload to a "sustainable" 80 to 90 hours a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jabbyrwock Posted July 12, 2022 Share Posted July 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, China said: He learned that the hard way: He apparently didn't learn that 5cm is about 2 inches. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistertim Posted July 12, 2022 Share Posted July 12, 2022 (edited) 12 minutes ago, China said: He learned that the hard way: Many people, especially "hustle culture" idiots, really underestimate how important sleep is for overall health. Without enough sleep your productivity drastically decreases, as does creativity, problem solving skills, general mental health, and general physical health. Often the "hustle culture" people who work 14 hours a day 6 days a week aren't actually getting any more done than a person working regular hours, in fact they often get less done, because the human brain only has the capacity for so much focused work in a day, and once you go past that limit work efficiency sharply decreases and errors in work sharply increase. They also don't understand how to do focused work and so probably 90% of those 14 hours are basically spent "being busy" instead of actually concentrating on a goal focused tasks without distraction and without trying to multitask. Edited July 12, 2022 by mistertim 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Wiggles Posted July 12, 2022 Share Posted July 12, 2022 Quote For improved quality of sleep, raise head of your bed by about 3” or 5cm and don’t eat 3 hours before bedtime Next he's gonna start telling people not to feed theys mogwai after midnight. Way to go Leon! 🤪 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renegade7 Posted July 12, 2022 Author Share Posted July 12, 2022 If it was jus a stunt and he never really wanted to buy Twitter, I hope he believes it was worth it, because he lost benefit of the doubt with a lot of people over the last couple months. His name is now synonyms with "I'd bring Trump back to Twitter"...you can't rub that stain off with time or bleach. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CobraCommander Posted July 12, 2022 Share Posted July 12, 2022 1 hour ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said: Musk doesnt want to own a social media company, this was all about Twitter specifically. It’s personal I think. Musk has **** me money. Freudian slip? I believe the term is **** You Money. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted July 12, 2022 Share Posted July 12, 2022 (edited) The thread of responses by Elon and others.... Edited July 12, 2022 by visionary 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted July 12, 2022 Share Posted July 12, 2022 4 hours ago, DCSaints_fan said: I wonder why Musk didn't just create his own platform, would have cost him alot less than $44 billion Because rolling your own product takes a lot of time and gaining market traction is hard and not guaranteed. it’s easier to buy one and make it yours. Especially from the market traction standpoint. First to market is always a crazy advantage. this is why we see companies buying other companies instead of building their own, despite the resources to do it (google, apple, Facebook, Microsoft, Cisco, you name it they spend billions acquiring a product with market presence and all the knowledge of the staff) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CousinsCowgirl84 Posted July 12, 2022 Share Posted July 12, 2022 1 hour ago, Jabbyrwock said: He apparently didn't learn that 5cm is about 2 inches. I heard all guys exaggerate in this type of way. 52 minutes ago, visionary said: The thread of responses by Elon and others.... If anything Dems shouldn’t drag this out until the 2024 election and they should convict Trump way before then. Everything takes forever in the Justice system though, not unique to the Trump investigation. Topic for a different thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CousinsCowgirl84 Posted July 12, 2022 Share Posted July 12, 2022 What do you all think is the most likely outcome of Musk VS Twitter!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCSaints_fan Posted July 12, 2022 Share Posted July 12, 2022 3 hours ago, PokerPacker said: The value of twitter isn't the platform, it's the built-in user-base. And unlike Cars and Rockets where you are selling a product to consumers, you're dealing with a strong positive feedback loop where the value of the platform to users is dependent on the existence of other users. The USA doesn't care if other people aren't using Space-X; the value to them is from the rocket launch. A Tesla driver doesn't find they get less from a Tesla if they're the only one driving one. But a social media user on a platform without other users gets exactly what from the platform? According to Musk (and others) Twitter is unfairly silencing certain users / viewpoints. If he really wants to carry out his free speech experiment, that should be enough of an impetus for changeover, or at least for his target audience. The only thing people invest in with social media is time, and its relatively easy to change / or use more than one. On the other hand, even if he views it more for the investment, its probably a smarter move to invest minimal and then have it blow up. Twitter along with other social media has probably reached close to maximum value regardless of whatever Musk does with it. Its like investing in Microsoft back in 2000 when they were already huge - yes you've seen decent return since then (although it had plateau'd from 2000-2015, so you didn't see much ROI for the first 15 years) but it was much smarter move to buy Google, Amazon or Nvidia. There is a "cool" factor being one of the first on a platform. You can also do incentives like first X thousand to sign up get no advertisements, ever. Twitter entered the market when it seemed like Facebook owned it. They got all the "cool" people (celebrities) to start posting, and then herd followed. I'm thinking some of them were probably even paid off. So Musk may as well follow the same strategy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CousinsCowgirl84 Posted July 12, 2022 Share Posted July 12, 2022 I highly doubt Musk will start his own social media company. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fergasun Posted July 12, 2022 Share Posted July 12, 2022 From what I read based on legal cases, if this goes to court I think Musk will lose. I don't see him settling for $5B to $10B or anything and I don't see Twitter taking the $1B. Here's the issue for Elon Musk. He has spoken out about bots before, in fact he told Jack Dorsey that Twitter should clean up their bot problem. If Twitter regularly and randomly samples 100,000 accounts and they only come up with 5,000 bots and that is demonstrated in court, it will be a real problem for Elon. He us trying to get out arguing "material adverse effect", but he already has demonstrated his concern and awareness of bots on Twitter BEFORE the deal. So I don't think he can say, "whoah... I am surprised by bots!" especially since his account as a celebrity is an outlier with a higher percentage of bot followers. There is a possobility that we haven't much discussed. That he does go through and purchase Twitter, but at a lower asking price. Like $40 a share or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Die Hard Posted July 12, 2022 Share Posted July 12, 2022 9 hours ago, mistertim said: Many people, especially "hustle culture" idiots, really underestimate how important sleep is for overall health. Without enough sleep your productivity drastically decreases, as does creativity, problem solving skills, general mental health, and general physical health. Often the "hustle culture" people who work 14 hours a day 6 days a week aren't actually getting any more done than a person working regular hours, in fact they often get less done, because the human brain only has the capacity for so much focused work in a day, and once you go past that limit work efficiency sharply decreases and errors in work sharply increase. They also don't understand how to do focused work and so probably 90% of those 14 hours are basically spent "being busy" instead of actually concentrating on a goal focused tasks without distraction and without trying to multitask. That kind of messaging is why I can’t stand Gary Vaynerchuk. Gotta out hustle everyone. Its unsustainable. It causes burnout. Mt Everest is littered with the dead bodies of ambitious people. Stay lazy. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistertim Posted July 12, 2022 Share Posted July 12, 2022 1 hour ago, Die Hard said: That kind of messaging is why I can’t stand Gary Vaynerchuk. Gotta out hustle everyone. Its unsustainable. It causes burnout. Mt Everest is littered with the dead bodies of ambitious people. Stay lazy. To me it's less about being lazy and more about being smart. If you read Deep Work by Cal Newport you'll see what I mean. The idea that you have to work 12-14 hours a day in order to be extremely successful is bogus, and is actually counterproductive. He's written 8 books and maintains a blog while also being a full time computer science professor (along with having a family). And he usually works between 3 and 5 hours a day, 5 days a week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CousinsCowgirl84 Posted July 12, 2022 Share Posted July 12, 2022 34 minutes ago, mistertim said: To me it's less about being lazy and more about being smart. If you read Deep Work by Cal Newport you'll see what I mean. The idea that you have to work 12-14 hours a day in order to be extremely successful is bogus, and is actually counterproductive. He's written 8 books and maintains a blog while also being a full time computer science professor (along with having a family). And he usually works between 3 and 5 hours a day, 5 days a week. The trick is staying super focused on what you are doing. If you can stay focused it is perfectly reasonable that you can do in 5 hours what might take the average scatterbrain 8-10 hours to do. But staying focused is hard work by itself. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Die Hard Posted July 12, 2022 Share Posted July 12, 2022 35 minutes ago, mistertim said: To me it's less about being lazy and more about being smart. If you read Deep Work by Cal Newport you'll see what I mean. The idea that you have to work 12-14 hours a day in order to be extremely successful is bogus, and is actually counterproductive. He's written 8 books and maintains a blog while also being a full time computer science professor (along with having a family). And he usually works between 3 and 5 hours a day, 5 days a week. I work 3 days a week less than 5 hours a day. Self-employed. But everyone’s definition of success will differ. 🙂 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted July 12, 2022 Share Posted July 12, 2022 (edited) 10 hours ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said: What do you all think is the most likely outcome of Musk VS Twitter!? I’m guessing he pays his 1 billion dollar exit fee and we get an entertaining somewhat public spat between the two for a while. it’s hard for me to think he’ll actually be forced to pay the 44 billion. although that’s prefaced on believing twitter did give him correct info, isn’t lying with the sec, etc. I’m giving twitter more of the benefit of the doubt that they likely deserve - but when two entities are arguing and you’re guessing, you have to pick one to give the benefit of the doubt to, and I’m surely not picking the one that behaves like a child as a default setting. Edited July 12, 2022 by tshile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistertim Posted July 12, 2022 Share Posted July 12, 2022 Yeah I think Musk will have an uphill battle unless it's easily proven that Twitter just either straight up lied about sending him the information he wanted or that what they sent him was bogus. Musk will have to prove not only that what they sent him was insufficient but also that it constituted a "material adverse effect". Neither is going to be easy to prove (again, unless Twitter just completely lied about giving him info). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted July 12, 2022 Share Posted July 12, 2022 (edited) In fact - my guess is they’ll settle for an undisclosed amount. Which could be something like 1 million, just so both parties move on or, could be like 10 billion, so musk saves 34 billion as well as public embarrassment, and twitter gets something substantial without having to wrestle in the mud with him for months. my guess is both sides will pretend they won the undisclosed terms, and the defenders of each will happily assume as much. Edited July 12, 2022 by tshile 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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