Wentz Traded to Washington for 2 3rd Rounders per Bleacher Report

[Jericho]

On 3/25/2022 at 9:14 AM, clskinsfan said:

Winston was playing at a Pro Bowl level before he tore his ACL last year. Agree about the mobility issues though. 

 

If by "Pro Bowl" you mean not a Pro Bowl player, than yes. I sometimes wonder where people get their takes, as this one's way out there. The NFC gets three Pro Bowl births. Winston wasn't even in the same zip code as Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady, so that's two spots right there. Are we really trying to argue Winston was the third best QB in the entire NFC after 6 games? Not that it matters that much, 6 games is WAY too small a sample size to mean anything. Derek Anderson or Scott Mitchell or hell even someone like Todd Collins can look respectable after 6 games against the right opponents. But the weird part is Winston wasn't even doing much. He was on pace for less than 2500 yards. For the season. Plus, you got guys like Kyler Murray or Kirk Cousins or Russell Wilson or Matt Stafford or Dak Prescott out there. The idea that a guy who once threw over 250 yards and only 3 times had games with more than 1 TD was "Pro Bowl bound" just seems laughable. All while completely just 59% of his passes. Pretty much every metric screams no on that one. 

 

Just as an example, After 7 games

 

Winston was 95-161 (59.1%) for 1,170 yards with 14 TDs and 3 interceptions. On the other hand, Kyler Murray was 164-223 (73.5%) for 2002 yards with 17 TDs and 5 interceptions. And he had run for three more TDs. And his team was 7-0. So no, I don't think Winston ever came close to sniffing a Pro Bowl.

On 3/25/2022 at 12:08 PM, OMacAttack said:

But that second round pick could have been (insert any player who over achieves past that second round pick) we got hosed!

 

My objection to the trade isn't really Wentz himself as it is the cost. If you can give up a 3rd and a 2nd (plus  pick swap) for Wentz, would you do that or just get Baker Mayfield for what seems like a bag of balls? Both have worked their way out of organizations and have their issues, but one is a lot cheaper to acquire (and younger). If you're getting a stopgap, you don't have to overpay.

[Est.1974]

The Mayfield situation is another strange one. He would have cost a fair bit in a trade prior to them getting Watson. Not sure anyone thought they would actually land him. Once that deal happened, Mayfield literally has no value as the Browns need to dump him. Browns should have just move Mayfield on first.

[DWinzit]

3 hours ago, Est.1974 said:

The Mayfield situation is another strange one. He would have cost a fair bit in a trade prior to them getting Watson. Not sure anyone thought they would actually land him. Once that deal happened, Mayfield literally has no value as the Browns need to dump him. Browns should have just move Mayfield on first.

Only in Cleveland. They now have Watson and Brissett. Some team is going to get a nice deal grabbing Mayfield. Situation was botched Washington style

[Darrell Green Fan]

16 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I am not sure how this will play out.  And Wentz played at a pretty high level as recently as last year.  The big thing with him has always been consistency. 
 

But he had a bunch of very good games last year.  And a few horrible ones.  
 

So, shrug.  This is an entirely new group for him, a fresh start, so we’ll see .

I predict he will start out playing well, and to this fanbase any competent QB play given what we have seen will look like a huge upgrade. Fans will get all excited, then the inevitable happens.  

[Hoover-ball]

1 hour ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

I predict he will start out playing well, and to this fanbase any competent QB play given what we have seen will look like a huge upgrade. Fans will get all excited, then the inevitable happens.  

Fans will get excited....and really isn't that a point of being a fan? 

With Terry and a potential first round pick WR coming plus JD wanting to be here to catch out of the backfield I may be excited already. Sue me.

[Warhead36]

1 hour ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

I predict he will start out playing well, and to this fanbase any competent QB play given what we have seen will look like a huge upgrade. Fans will get all excited, then the inevitable happens.  

If Wentz plays well we probably make the playoffs. We had legitimately bottom 3 starting QB play last year, brutal strength of schedule, and bad injury luck, and still managed seven wins.

[OMacAttack]

7 hours ago, Jericho said:

 

My objection to the trade isn't really Wentz himself as it is the cost. If you can give up a 3rd and a 2nd (plus  pick swap) for Wentz, would you do that or just get Baker Mayfield for what seems like a bag of balls? Both have worked their way out of organizations and have their issues, but one is a lot cheaper to acquire (and younger). If you're getting a stopgap, you don't have to overpay.

That's fair, at the time there was no way to know that Mayfield would be available on the cheap, I'm guessing the Browns would've had a high pricetag for a trade at that point. If it's true other teams were talking to Indy about Wentz the team had to do what it could to get him.

 

I guess the thing is Wentz has performed at one time at a level above what Mayfield has done. Will he recapture it? No way to know until the season starts, but he does have a high ceiling. Granted it's been 5 years but if, and it's a big if, we get that player the 3rd and second rounder and pick swap will be worthwhile. 

 

If it doesn't work out the trade will look like we got screwed. My prediction is Wentz has a better year than Mayfield, wherever he ends up.

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

17 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

If Wentz plays well we probably make the playoffs. We had legitimately bottom 3 starting QB play last year, brutal strength of schedule, and bad injury luck, and still managed seven wins.

Many of our wins were so close, we could have been easily picking closer to the top of the draft, with a few different bounces.

 

Its part of why the whole “TH = 7 wins or more, Covid, injuries, etc.” argument from the Hive doesn’t hold much weight with me.

 

I realize it’s the NFL and most games are close, but we were just as close to being losers as we were winners in a # of different matchups.

 

 

[Warhead36]

3 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

Many of our wins were so close, we could have been easily picking closer to the top of the draft, with a few different bounces.

 

Its part of why the whole “TH = 7 wins or more, Covid, injuries, etc.” argument from the Hive doesn’t hold much weight with me.

 

I realize it’s the NFL and most games are close, but we were just as close to being losers as we were winners in a # of different matchups.

 

 

You're not wrong. The first Giants and Falcons games could have easily been losses. 

 

But I do think Wentz will allow the offense to open up more and that will result in some actual double digit wins and games where we're basically on cruise control in the late 3rd/early 4th. For example the Raiders and Seahawks games we should have won by a lot more with how good our D played, but the O couldn't capitalize. Don't see that happening this year.

Edited March 27, 2022 by Warhead36

[Est.1974]

Wentz give us a real opportunity to win the division. Thereafter we are still way behind the stronger playoff candidates. 

[Jericho]

7 hours ago, Est.1974 said:

The Mayfield situation is another strange one. He would have cost a fair bit in a trade prior to them getting Watson. Not sure anyone thought they would actually land him. Once that deal happened, Mayfield literally has no value as the Browns need to dump him. Browns should have just move Mayfield on first.

 

The Colts all but ran Wentz out of town and this team still traded good assets for him. Not sure why Mayfield has to be any different. It reminds me a few years ago when Jackson overtook Flacco on the Ravens. Flacco had that terrible contract paying him top dollar despite middling, at best results. I mean Flacco was never great, but he hadn't been particularly good for at least 3 years.. And then he started having back problems, which is how Jackson started in the first place (though Flacco's play was pretty poor). And by the next season he was going to be 34 years old. And I'm thinking what team wants a 34 year old QB with an injury history, a disastrously terrible contract, and one who's best years (which weren't that great) seem long in the past? Enter Denver to not only take on the contract, but give up assets for the right to do so. It predictably was a terrible move.

 

Or Sam Darnold. One of the leagues worst QBs and a guy you'd get one year out of before either having to pay him a ton of money or let him walk. Who wants to trade for that? Enter Carolina. It seems like there's always a sucker willing to pay for bad QBs. I don't get how Mayfield would really be different.

[Koolblue13]

1 hour ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

Many of our wins were so close, we could have been easily picking closer to the top of the draft, with a few different bounces.

 

Its part of why the whole “TH = 7 wins or more, Covid, injuries, etc.” argument from the Hive doesn’t hold much weight with me.

 

I realize it’s the NFL and most games are close, but we were just as close to being losers as we were winners in a # of different matchups.

 

 

We were a playoff team, fighting for the division, before Heinicke decided to put the season on his shoulders and drown like puppy chained to a cinderblock. 

 

We are at least a 10 win team this season with our schedule and Wentz.

[veteranskinsfan]

On 3/25/2022 at 12:24 PM, Voice_of_Reason said:

You should have heard Bram's show from 2 days ago.  It was an hour and a half, and he was HOT.

 

My listening schedule used to be:

 

- Morning drive: Galdi Podcast

- Evening Drive: Sheehan Podcast OR Keim/Standig/Football Talk Pod (Finley's) if they had come out.

- Late Night: Bram's show in podcast mode, but only the topics I care about.  

 

I've dumped Sheehan.  Now I catch the first hour of Bram's show on the way home (it's typically out by the time I leave the office.  

 

Galdi is great. Insightful, entertaining, and he even played hurt this morning.  (Has a cold. Voice was gone.  Did the show anyway.)  Kiem and Standig typically know what they are talking about.  I really like Michael Philips when he's a guest on any of the shows.  I find him entertaining and insightful as well.  Football Talk Pod used to be better, but I still find them amusing.  

 

Sheehan has become so jaded and scorned, and so bitter about Snyder that he is absolutely unable to talk about anything else. And he's even made people telling him he can't talk about anything else a topic, getting defensive and saying you HAVE to always talk about the owner because he ALWAYS screws it up, so if you don't obsess over the owner on every topic, you're "limited" and "don't get it." It's like, we get it.  We've all lived here.  Let it go.  

 

Also, he's become so obsessed with being right, he'll go on and on about how he's right about this, right about that, yadda yadda yadda.  And where I think he used to be able to say, "yeah, I love Kirk, he wasn't good" that's almost gone in any topic now.  If he's wrong about something, he won't bring it up.  Or he'll bring it up and offer a full throated defense of how he's not wrong.  His rant on how "Kirk has a losing record because he's basically the most unlucky QB of all time" was comedy gold.  Except he didn't realize it was comedy.

 

His smell test even sucked this year.  I'm taking a full Sheehan detox.  For the first time in probably 15 years.  

I totally agree with you about Sheehan always saying he is right.  He was so wrong about Haskins it wasn't even funny.  I really like Galdi's podcast a lot.

Also listen occasionally to Keim's podcast.  Team 908 radio shows have really fallen off the deep end.  Also it is rare that Sheehan will credit the caller

with making a good point.  He cuts off listeners too when they do not say he is right in their first few sentences of talking.  If you do not want others opinions

then just don't take any calls.  I listen to a Cape May NJ ESPN radio station and the guy on the afternoon drive home, Mike Gill just takes caller tweets but he does not

take any "live" calls.

[Ball Security]

1 hour ago, Jericho said:

 

The Colts all but ran Wentz out of town and this team still traded good assets for him. Not sure why Mayfield has to be any different. It reminds me a few years ago when Jackson overtook Flacco on the Ravens. Flacco had that terrible contract paying him top dollar despite middling, at best results. I mean Flacco was never great, but he hadn't been particularly good for at least 3 years.. And then he started having back problems, which is how Jackson started in the first place (though Flacco's play was pretty poor). And by the next season he was going to be 34 years old. And I'm thinking what team wants a 34 year old QB with an injury history, a disastrously terrible contract, and one who's best years (which weren't that great) seem long in the past? Enter Denver to not only take on the contract, but give up assets for the right to do so. It predictably was a terrible move.

 

Or Sam Darnold. One of the leagues worst QBs and a guy you'd get one year out of before either having to pay him a ton of money or let him walk. Who wants to trade for that? Enter Carolina. It seems like there's always a sucker willing to pay for bad QBs. I don't get how Mayfield would really be different.

The difference between Wentz and Mayfield is that the acquiring team has Wentz for three years.  If he plays well, and is in the top half of QBs, you have him on a competitive deal for two extra years.  If he sucks, you can drop him with no cap penalty.  The team who grabs Mayfield will compete with others in FA for him after 2022.

[Darrell Green Fan]

4 hours ago, Hoover-ball said:

Fans will get excited....and really isn't that a point of being a fan? 

With Terry and a potential first round pick WR coming plus JD wanting to be here to catch out of the backfield I may be excited already. Sue me.

Oh I get it and I'm not trying to temper your enthusiasm. I'm just saying Washington fans will get excited the way Jags fans got excited when something called Gardner Minshew started the season playing well.  

[Mrshadow008]

4 hours ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

Many of our wins were so close, we could have been easily picking closer to the top of the draft, with a few different bounces.

 

Its part of why the whole “TH = 7 wins or more, Covid, injuries, etc.” argument from the Hive doesn’t hold much weight with me.

 

I realize it’s the NFL and most games are close, but we were just as close to being losers as we were winners in a # of different matchups.

 

 

This is a fair point. But you can also make the argument the other way. You can make the argument that with better qb play we beat the chargers, have a 28-10 lead on the chiefs at half time, beat Green Bay, and beat Denver at the very least. Keep in mind we forced the chiefs into 3 turnovers in the first half of that game and couldn’t do anything offensively. And we were better than both Green Bay and Denver in every statistical category except the only one that really matters. That’s 3 to 4 more wins alone BEFORE Covid and injuries hit meaning going into the 1st Dallas game you are 9-2 or 10-3 in first place for the division. 

[method man]

2 hours ago, veteranskinsfan said:

I totally agree with you about Sheehan always saying he is right.  He was so wrong about Haskins it wasn't even funny.  I really like Galdi's podcast a lot.

Also listen occasionally to Keim's podcast.  Team 908 radio shows have really fallen off the deep end.  Also it is rare that Sheehan will credit the caller

with making a good point.  He cuts off listeners too when they do not say he is right in their first few sentences of talking.  If you do not want others opinions

then just don't take any calls.  I listen to a Cape May NJ ESPN radio station and the guy on the afternoon drive home, Mike Gill just takes caller tweets but he does not

take any "live" calls.

 

I like Galdi but my issue with him is that he caveats everything ("Assuming <insert random scenario> isn't true, then <point he is trying to make>").

 

Sheehan is entertaining and he gets awesome guests so I continue listening to him. However, outside of the points that have been made, 1) he is also a politician who doesn't analyze his friends objectively (ex Shanahan and Turgeon), 2) spends way too much time talking about Maryland sports (and Len Bias it feels like every few episodes) & 3) spends little time on the Wizards despite claiming to be a fan

Edited March 27, 2022 by method man

[tomwvr]

6 hours ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

Many of our wins were so close, we could have been easily picking closer to the top of the draft, with a few different bounces.

 

Its part of why the whole “TH = 7 wins or more, Covid, injuries, etc.” argument from the Hive doesn’t hold much weight with me.

 

I realize it’s the NFL and most games are close, but we were just as close to being losers as we were winners in a # of different matchups.

 

 

That could be a factor caused by th being a solid leader and bringing more out of what the players did. And it could also be because th was bad and kept teams In the game 

3 hours ago, Ball Security said:

The difference between Wentz and Mayfield is that the acquiring team has Wentz for three years.  If he plays well, and is in the top half of QBs, you have him on a competitive deal for two extra years.  If he sucks, you can drop him with no cap penalty.  The team who grabs Mayfield will compete with others in FA for him after 2022.

Yes but baker is almost 10 mil a year less in salary this year. 

[Bifflog]

8 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

If Wentz plays well we probably make the playoffs. We had legitimately bottom 3 starting QB play last year, brutal strength of schedule, and bad injury luck, and still managed seven wins.

 

Chart I cam across on r/NFL definitely backs this up...

 

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

9 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

We had legitimately bottom 3 starting QB play last year

Nah. Taylor is bottom three in ability maybe but he played better than some guys who have more natural talent. He’s not great but he’s not terrible either.

[Jericho]

9 hours ago, Ball Security said:

The difference between Wentz and Mayfield is that the acquiring team has Wentz for three years.  If he plays well, and is in the top half of QBs, you have him on a competitive deal for two extra years.  If he sucks, you can drop him with no cap penalty.  The team who grabs Mayfield will compete with others in FA for him after 2022.

 

It's not much of a difference though. Wentz actually counts $10 million MORE against the cap in 2022 than Mayfield. And he'll still count over $26 million in 2023 and over $27 million in 2023. Yes, he's technically signed two more years, but at high prices. Like Wentz, anyone can get out from under Mayfield with no additional penalty after a year. And if a team wanted to keep Mayfield, the franchise tag for 2022 is only $29,703,000 and the transition tag is only $27,186,000. That's barely more than Wentz is already scheduled to make. And I again remind you that Wentz is 3+ years older and counts $10 million more in 2022. It's basically a wash, so it only makes sense if you think Wentz is that much better. Which is highly debatable.

[Jericho]

5 hours ago, Sacks &#x27;n&#x27; Stuff said:

Nah. Taylor is bottom three in ability maybe but he played better than some guys who have more natural talent. He’s not great but he’s not terrible either.

 

As a starting QB he's terrible. Way below average. He may not be bottom three in 2021, though the only guys he's beating are generally guys who shouldn't be starting anyway. Maybe Jared Goff (who might actually start again in 2022). And then there's Ben Roethlisberger (was terrible and retired), Sam Darnold (not a starter) and a slew of rookies like Davis Mills, Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, and Justin Fields. Time will tell if any of the rookies become viable starters, but they'll either improve or show they're not starters either. Anyone who will have a real chance of a 2022 starting job is either better than Heiniecke or just some rookie a team hopes upon.

 

[Ball Security]

1 hour ago, Jericho said:

 

It's not much of a difference though. Wentz actually counts $10 million MORE against the cap in 2022 than Mayfield. And he'll still count over $26 million in 2023 and over $27 million in 2023. Yes, he's technically signed two more years, but at high prices. Like Wentz, anyone can get out from under Mayfield with no additional penalty after a year. And if a team wanted to keep Mayfield, the franchise tag for 2022 is only $29,703,000 and the transition tag is only $27,186,000. That's barely more than Wentz is already scheduled to make. And I again remind you that Wentz is 3+ years older and counts $10 million more in 2022. It's basically a wash, so it only makes sense if you think Wentz is that much better. Which is highly debatable.

My point is that if Wentz performs at a top half of the league QB, then $26 and $27M are not high prices.  And he has little leverage to do anything about it.

 

If a team grabs Mayfield and wants him for three years, but he doesn’t want extend, then he’s more expensive than Wentz over three years.  The anticipated QB tag for 2023 is $31.5M (over the cap). 2024 is 120% of 2023 ($37.8M).

 

If Baker gets an opportunity and puts up a good season he’s not going to extend for anything less than mid 30s.  Then you are in a situation where you are spending 8-10M more per year than Wentz in 23 and 24.

[Jericho]

27 minutes ago, Ball Security said:

My point is that if Wentz performs at a top half of the league QB, then $26 and $27M are not high prices.  And he has little leverage to do anything about it.

 

If a team grabs Mayfield and wants him for three years, but he doesn’t want extend, then he’s more expensive than Wentz over three years.  The anticipated QB tag for 2023 is $31.5M (over the cap). 2024 is 120% of 2023 ($37.8M).

 

If Baker gets an opportunity and puts up a good season he’s not going to extend for anything less than mid 30s.  Then you are in a situation where you are spending 8-10M more per year than Wentz in 23 and 24.

 

Maybe, assuming the tags go that route and that you have to use the tags (i.e. there is no extension) and that you have to use the franchise tag (frankly the transition might do it unless Mayfield balls out). But you also have to factor in that Wentz is already costing $10 million MORE this year. So even if Mayfield costs most in 2023 (which seems at most $5 million) and 2024, it somewhat evens out, particularly as the cap also goes up meaning you're using similar amounts of cap even if the raw salaries increase. In the most extreme scenario, Mayfield might costly slightly more in end. But it's also probable the most extreme scenario doesn't come to pass. So I stand by my point that i's basically a wash. It only really makes sense if Wentz is that much better than Mayfield. Which is possible, but not sure will actually happen.

[MrJL]

19 hours ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

Many of our wins were so close, we could have been easily picking closer to the top of the draft, with a few different bounces.

 

Its part of why the whole “TH = 7 wins or more, Covid, injuries, etc.” argument from the Hive doesn’t hold much weight with me.

 

I realize it’s the NFL and most games are close, but we were just as close to being losers as we were winners in a # of different matchups.

 

 

 

and we had four one score losses so with a few different bounces we could have gone to the playoffs