Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[DogofWar1]

4 hours ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

I was looking at as a possible pretense for nuclear weapons; despite being in agreement with those who say it doesn’t make strategic sense for Russia.

Right, I mean, they wanted the West to perceive it as a pretext, which would then ideally make the West/UKR blink.  They so far haven't, so the rushed referendums now sorta present a problem.

 

I don't see any indication of a definite delay in things, but if there was a delay, one possibility for that would be that Russia is trying to figure out how to navigate their own threats.  Like "we heavily hinted at nukes, but honestly it's kind of stupid to use nukes, so if we annex these territories then we either gotta back down or escalate or find a 3rd path," and they might want some time to think through that 3rd path.

[@DCGoldPants]

I used to wake up every morning and check if Cheeto Jesus died of a stroke or Adderall overdose or obstructed bowel from fast food. 

 

Now it's if Vlad has been taken out by his inner circle before they lose a generation of citizens to war or leaving the country. He's got to be paranoid as **** by now. Right? 

[FootballZombie]

1 hour ago, @DCGoldPants said:

He's got to be paranoid as **** by now. Right? 

 

I don't think its possible for this mans paranoia to grow. At this point your looking at diminishing returns

 

1,000 × 666

[China]

The Ukrainian Army Reportedly Destroyed Another Russian Division

 

Three weeks ago, the Ukrainian army’s northeastern counteroffensive dismantled one of the Russian army’s elite units: the 1st Guards Tank Army.

 

Now the same counteroffensive reportedly has wrecked a new motorized infantry division the Kremlin stood up a few years ago in order to help protect the 1st GTA. After suffering steep losses around Bakhmut in recent days, it’s possible the 144th Guards Motor Rifle Division no longer is combat-effective.

 

These losses are unsustainable for the Russian army—and explain why the Kremlin is willing to risk widespread unrest as it forcibly drafts 300,000 men and speeds them to the Ukrainian front line with as little as a day of training. The professional Russian army is disintegrating.

 

The Russian army formed the 144th Guards Motor Rifle Division and a companion division specifically for war in Ukraine. Together, the two divisions make up the 20th Combined Arms Army. On paper, the 20th CAA oversees more than 20,000 troops riding in 560 BMP fighting vehicles and 300 T-72 tanks.

 

The army optimized the 144th GMRD and the rest of the 20th CAA for the semi-open spaces of northeastern Ukraine and based them in southern Russian near the Ukrainian border. The 144th GMRD originally operated out of a base in Yelnya, 150 miles from the border and another 150 miles from Kyiv.

 

According to the CNA think-tank in Washington, D.C., the plan was for the 144th GMRD and its sister division to roll into Ukraine alongside the 1st GTA and protect the tank army’s left flank in a hypothetical assault on Kyiv.

 

The 144th GMRD suffered badly in the Kyiv campaign, but with time and reinforcements it managed to return to the fight—in the northeast. Units of the 144th GMRD reportedly manned the Russian army’s secondary defensive line along the Oskil River in northeastern Ukraine. When a dozen eager Ukrainian brigades punched through Russians’ outermost defenses just east of Kharkiv, the vanguard units—including the 1st GTA—fled east across the Oskil.

 

The 1st GTA all but imploded in those heady first days of the Ukrainian counteroffensive starting the first week of September. The tank army lost at least half of its 200 T-80 tanks. The survivors forded the Oskil, hoping the river—and the 144th GMRD and other units defending its banks—would stop the Ukrainians.

 

They didn’t. The Ukrainian army crossed the river in at least five places and kept pushing east. The 144th GMRD’s regiments “are going to immortality,” one Russian mouthpiece lamented.

 

At least one company from the 144th GMRD reportedly took part in a doomed countercounteroffensive outside Bakhmut, 20 miles south of the Russians’ logistical hub in Lyman, which currently is the locus of the Ukrainian operation. The Ukrainian garrison in Bakhmut has held. That company from the 144th GMRD ceased to exist.

 

It took years for the Russian army to form the 144th GMRD—and just a few months for the Ukrainian army to erase it. The division is just one of several units the Russians might try to reconstitute with aging, unwell, unhappy draftees and very old tanks and fighting vehicles.

 

Click on the link for the full article

[Larry]

2 hours ago, @DCGoldPants said:

He's got to be paranoid as **** by now. Right? 

In one of Roger Zelazny's Amber books, Lord Corwin contemplates a painting he once saw. A king on his throne. He's surrounded by shadowy figures, but is obviously alone. And troubled. 
 

"I'm paranoid. But am I paranoid enough?"

[China]

Pro-Moscow officials say 4 occupied area of Ukraine have voted to join Russia

 

The Kremlin paved the way Tuesday to annex more of Ukraine and escalate the war by claiming that residents of a large swath overwhelmingly supported joining with Russia in stage-managed referendums the U.S. and its Western allies have dismissed as illegitimate.

 

Pro-Moscow officials said all four occupied regions of Ukraine voted to join Russia. According to Russia-installed election officials, 93 percent of the ballots cast in the Zaporizhzhia region supported annexation, as did 87 percent in the Kherson region, 98 percent in the Luhansk region and 99 percent in Donetsk. Possibly explaining the lower favorable vote in Kherson is that Russian authorities there have faced a strong Ukrainian underground resistance movement whose members have killed Moscow-appointed officials and threatened those who considered voting.

 

In a remark that appeared to rule out negotiations, Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelenskyy told the U.N. Security Council by video from Kyiv that Russia’s attempts to annex Ukrainian territory will mean “there is nothing to talk about with this president of Russia.”

 

Click on the link for the full article

[@DCGoldPants]

6 hours ago, China said:

Pro-Moscow officials say 4 occupied area of Ukraine have voted to join Russia

 

The Kremlin paved the way Tuesday to annex more of Ukraine and escalate the war by claiming that residents of a large swath overwhelmingly supported joining with Russia in stage-managed referendums the U.S. and its Western allies have dismissed as illegitimate.

 

Pro-Moscow officials said all four occupied regions of Ukraine voted to join Russia. According to Russia-installed election officials, 93 percent of the ballots cast in the Zaporizhzhia region supported annexation, as did 87 percent in the Kherson region, 98 percent in the Luhansk region and 99 percent in Donetsk. Possibly explaining the lower favorable vote in Kherson is that Russian authorities there have faced a strong Ukrainian underground resistance movement whose members have killed Moscow-appointed officials and threatened those who considered voting.

 

In a remark that appeared to rule out negotiations, Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelenskyy told the U.N. Security Council by video from Kyiv that Russia’s attempts to annex Ukrainian territory will mean “there is nothing to talk about with this president of Russia.”

 

Click on the link for the full article

 

 

Yeah, if you're going to make up numbers from a vote. Make it more realistic. While even 80% would be bull****, 98 and 99% are like Trump claiming 103% support in the GOP.

[Switchgear]

I don't know if this is totally accurate, but here's hoping...

 

Edit: Another one

 

Edited September 28, 2022 by Switchgear

[Cooked Crack]

 

[TradeTheBeal!]

Fare thee well, WarGonzo…

[Cooked Crack]

If it dies, it dies.

[Wildbunny]

2 hours ago, Cooked Crack said:

If it dies, it dies.

Not really a big surprise.

Those pipelines are full of water that'll be too expensive to repair. It'll be easier to start Nordstream III from scratch. Cheaper too.

 

Still wondering who did that because it's obviously no accident.

[DogofWar1]

Getting some nice conflicting indicators on whether things are a go for annexation on the 30th.

 

 

I think weight of it is more towards annexing it on the 30th as the "delay" parts are more speculative and based on "sourcing" while the leaders of the occupied territories being in Moscow seems like a tell.

[China]

8 hours ago, Cooked Crack said:

If it dies, it dies.

 

Well, at least we have Trump to help...

 

 

[EmirOfShmo]

 

[CousinsCowgirl84]

10 hours ago, Cooked Crack said:

If it dies, it dies.

Easy for Americas to say. Reason 583738493 to be happy to be born in America….

2 hours ago, China said:

 

Well, at least we have Trump to help...

 

 

Yikes. Die already.

[Renegade7]

 

[China]

 

[Switchgear]

https://twitter.com/i/events/1575199014169067536

 

 

Edited September 29, 2022 by Switchgear

[DogofWar1]

The Russian disinfo discourse on NordStream 2 is a great teachable momentf on how their disinfo ecosystem works.

 

1. Something bad happens (and Russia probably did it. - NS2 is bombed

2. Russian bots and paid disinfo accounts share conspiracy about it. - Biden blew up NS2

3. Those conspiracies get picked up by far right Americans and amplified/repeated by them, including in high profile media spaces. - Tucker Carlson, Lavern Spicer, etc.

4. Russian propaganda shows back in Russia then run the videos/tweets from #3, pretending #2 didn't happen, to bolster their anti-West rhetoric.

 

 

Edited September 29, 2022 by DogofWar1

[Riggo-toni]

Tucker Carlson is a pathetic excuse for a human being.

[DCSaints_fan]

The thing is it doesn’t make sense for Russia to do it since they can shut off the pipes themselves anyway and they lose the leverage they had with Germany.  It would make more sense for those in the UKR camp to prevent Germany from getting cold feet in their support for Ukraine.  As long as the potential to turn the gas back on exists, you think that Germany would do everything it could reasonably do to try make that happen, despite what they say in their press releases.  A major power in the quasi European alliance like Germany reversing course could cause other European countries, except the UK,  Poland an the Baltics, to reconsider their position as well.

 

Of course, it could also be that Russia thought of this and did it solely to try to pin the blame it on a Western country ( probably the US ) in a very desperate attempt to rupture German/US relations.

 

It could also be a non-state actor, like a gas company that wants t keep prices high. 

 

[LD0506]

4 hours ago, Riggo-toni said:

Tucker Carlson is a pathetic excuse for an infected boil

 

FTFY

[@DCGoldPants]

I know they kind of "are", but world leaders need to get in front of Putin today and say any declaration of annexation of occupied regions will not be globally recognized. Even if it's meaningless. Can't wait to react. 

[Renegade7]

5 hours ago, Riggo-toni said:

Tucker Carlson is a pathetic excuse for a human being.

 

Aliens to Us - "Why don't you jus kill humans like this?"