Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[NickyJ]

5 hours ago, DCSaints_fan said:

The thing is it doesn’t make sense for Russia to do it since they can shut off the pipes themselves anyway and they lose the leverage they had with Germany.  It would make more sense for those in the UKR camp to prevent Germany from getting cold feet in their support for Ukraine.  As long as the potential to turn the gas back on exists, you think that Germany would do everything it could reasonably do to try make that happen, despite what they say in their press releases.  A major power in the quasi European alliance like Germany reversing course could cause other European countries, except the UK,  Poland an the Baltics, to reconsider their position as well.

 

Of course, it could also be that Russia thought of this and did it solely to try to pin the blame it on a Western country ( probably the US ) in a very desperate attempt to rupture German/US relations.

 

It could also be a non-state actor, like a gas company that wants t keep prices high. 

 

Yeah, I'm kind of lost on what people think Russia has to gain by destroying a pipeline that they could just shut off like they have for the others.

[TradeTheBeal!]

If you see slack-jawed Russian assets like Kirk and Carlson on Twitter and TV alleging USA/CIA involvement, then that’s all the proof you need that Russia sabotaged their own now-useless pipelines.  The Baltic pipeline is fully operational and Norway will be holding down the natural gas situation going forward.

[tshile]

Russia sabotaging the pipeline so it can never be used again doesn’t make sense. They need it for their economy - assuming trade relations ever resume to what they were pre-invasion 

 

It does make sense for a western country to do it - but, not really, because resuming pre-invasion trade relations as a way to help their crumbling economy is really the only carrot we have to get Russia to stop. Not that it’ll work, but at some point “you’ll be able to sell your product again” is leverage. So, short term to hurt Russia and make sure Germany doesn’t change course could make sense but long term it surely doesn’t. I would think the long term needs far outweigh the short term gain… 

 

it makes sense for Ukraine to do it. It just does. They have every right to be vengeful and spiteful and they have no reason to care about the long term economy of Russia. They also have an incentive to prevent Germany from changing course. 
 

I suppose Norway has a reason - secures dominance in the area until it’s fixed/replaced. 
 

but ultimately Russia seems to do lots of stupid **** even when it’s not in their best interest. So, my bet would be Russia foolishly did something, not thinking out the long term ramifications. 

[CousinsCowgirl84]

Russia has done a lot of things that don’t make sense, add this to the list. I’m sure they would love to blame Ukraine or America for sabotaging the gas lines. Does Ukraine really have a lot to gain by sabotaging the gas lines? Seems needlessly provocative me.

[tshile]

2 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

Russia has done a lot of things that don’t make sense, add this to the list. I’m sure they would love to blame Ukraine or America for sabotaging the gas lines. Does Ukraine really have a lot to gain by sabotaging the gas lines? Seems needlessly provocative me.

technically - Ukraine and Norway have a lot to gain. It severely hurts Russias ability to fix their economy and have any power in the international world. Western democracies interested in Putin being gone have the same to gain - but then they lose leverage in negotiations. Sanctions on oil/gas trade don’t mean anything if they have no means to trade oil/gas

 

Furthermore China is making out like bandits by having incredibly cheap oil/gas because they’re the only major buyer. Been plenty of articles on that part. 
 

but Norway would take a lot crap for it and maybe I’m naive but it doesn’t seem to fit how they operate…

 

russias got a history of doing stupid **** like blowing up their own **** and blaming someone else for propaganda purposes. But others would have a motive, the question is whether the backlash is worth it. 
 

If the worst Ukraine did to Russia was destroy their pipeline I think most would shrug it off. 

[CousinsCowgirl84]

34 minutes ago, tshile said:

technically - Ukraine and Norway have a lot to gain. It severely hurts Russias ability to fix their economy and have any power in the international world. Western democracies interested in Putin being gone have the same to gain - but then they lose leverage in negotiations. Sanctions on oil/gas trade don’t mean anything if they have no means to trade oil/gas

 

Furthermore China is making out like bandits by having incredibly cheap oil/gas because they’re the only major buyer. Been plenty of articles on that part. 
 

but Norway would take a lot crap for it and maybe I’m naive but it doesn’t seem to fit how they operate…

 

russias got a history of doing stupid **** like blowing up their own **** and blaming someone else for propaganda purposes. But others would have a motive, the question is whether the backlash is worth it. 
 

If the worst Ukraine did to Russia was destroy their pipeline I think most would shrug it off. 

I don’t think Germany would shrug…

[tshile]

6 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

I don’t think Germany would shrug…

Yeah they’re the other party that’s hurt by it. 
 

But I don’t think it’ll matter. At worst Germany stops sending supplies. Not a great outcome for Ukraine but not an insurmountable hurdle either. 

[CousinsCowgirl84]

Just now, tshile said:

Yeah they’re the other party that’s hurt by it. 
 

But I don’t think it’ll matter. At worst Germany stops sending supplies. Not a great outcome for Ukraine but not an insurmountable hurdle either. 

I think it would risk ending the EUs solidarity on economic sanctions, as it would make Ukraine an aggressor. 

[The Sisko]

14 hours ago, Renegade7 said:

 

This is why I'm having a hard time feeling sorry for them. They were fine with it when it was poor guys from the far reaches of the Russian empir....'er Federation dying like flies. However, now that it's them, all of a sudden they've got their panties in a bunch. Go to hell Ivan.

 

8 hours ago, DCSaints_fan said:

The thing is it doesn’t make sense for Russia to do it since they can shut off the pipes themselves anyway and they lose the leverage they had with Germany.  It would make more sense for those in the UKR camp to prevent Germany from getting cold feet in their support for Ukraine.  As long as the potential to turn the gas back on exists, you think that Germany would do everything it could reasonably do to try make that happen, despite what they say in their press releases.  A major power in the quasi European alliance like Germany reversing course could cause other European countries, except the UK,  Poland an the Baltics, to reconsider their position as well.

 

Of course, it could also be that Russia thought of this and did it solely to try to pin the blame it on a Western country ( probably the US ) in a very desperate attempt to rupture German/US relations.

 

It could also be a non-state actor, like a gas company that wants t keep prices high. 

 

What I've heard is that the thinking is the Russians and Germans have a contract for that gas and not fulfilling it out of spite might leave Russia liable for damages. However, if the pipeline is mysteriously destroyed, they now don't have the ability to fulfill the contract so they might be able to make the case that it's now void. Moreover, any idea that the Germans and other Euro countries will ever trust Russia with their gas supply again is a pipe dream (see what I did there?😃) and Putie knows it. The moment he started using it for leverage and it didn't work, those pipelines were useless. FWIW, I said this was a mistake years ago . We all knew who Putin was from the beginning. I mean, who couldn't have seen a guy who probably blew up his own people in alleged terrorist attacks as a pretext for war, among other thuggish behavior, doing something like this?🙄

Edited September 29, 2022 by The Sisko

[tshile]

53 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

I think it would risk ending the EUs solidarity on economic sanctions, as it would make Ukraine an aggressor. 

Right - which as I said, I think people will shrug if that’s the “worst” thing Ukraine does. 
 

if they start invading Russia I think that’s a different story (and international relations aside - would seem like a stupid move anyways. )

[Wildbunny]

2 hours ago, tshile said:

It does make sense for a western country to do it - but, not really, because resuming pre-invasion trade relations as a way to help their crumbling economy is really the only carrot we have to get Russia to stop.

USA are first on the line here Biden said it right before the war starts that Us would destroy nordstream if war happened.I'm not saying you did it, but at the very least you bragged about it, so you are suspect on the matter. That would even help USA as you would then be able to sell your own gas to EU.

 

2 hours ago, tshile said:

it makes sense for Ukraine to do it. It just does. They have every right to be vengeful and spiteful and they have no reason to care about the long term economy of Russia. They also have an incentive to prevent Germany from changing course. 

Yes they do. But I really doubt they have the skills and logistics to do it. IMHO they are far away on the suspects list.

 

2 hours ago, tshile said:

Russia sabotaging the pipeline so it can never be used again doesn’t make sense. They need it for their economy - assuming trade relations ever resume to what they were pre-invasion

Right at the top too.

They're champions when it comes at doing stuff then deflecting blame on others. Which they already started. That would be stupid on the short term, but I believe they don't give a **** after Lavrov's speach at UN earlier this week. Watched it live, and that really sounded like a war declaration on the USA.

I think they're fine selling their gas to India and China, even if they are being raped by both any day about that. They are more looking for allies to jump in against USA, like China, more than anything else. They're in big trouble and they desperately need help.

 

2 hours ago, tshile said:

I suppose Norway has a reason - secures dominance in the area until it’s fixed/replaced. 

Yes they do, But I doubt that's how they operate too.

 

Other countries of interest on the matter?

 

First I'd put UK. Because that looks like their kind of things and would mess with Germans. They don't seem to have any interest about it, but they're well known for taking shots when opportunities arises. More than anybody else, they do not have allies at all and will do as they will if that can **** up anybody and help them stay as the most powerful country in Europe.

 

France has to be on the list to some extent, but it's doubtful. I don't see us doing it, because we've been putting French interest aside for a long time as our President doesn't seem much interested in France that much on the international scene. We're waving hands, shout and cry. But that's merely it. We're a shell of what we use to be. Still we've made a deal with Germany to sell them gas and they would sell us electricity. So we do have an interest here. (Which is a shame for a country that used to be selling electricity to the whole Europe ten years ago...).

 

Canada also has to be on the list, for the same reason as the USA as that would allow them to sell gas.

 

Last: China, but that's not in there sphere of influence, but that would help them a lot vassalizing Russia to them.

 

Lots of options...

Maybe that's like Murder in the Orient-Express and all of them are guilty. Mostly for not being careful enough and forgetting what geopolitics are about...

[China]

Fail:

 

 

[Wildbunny]

2 hours ago, China said:

Fail:

 

Well, it destroyed the mine, so for Russians I believe it's "working as intended."

[China]

The number of Russians fleeing the country to evade Putin's draft is likely bigger than the original invasion force, UK intel says

 

The number of Russians leaving the country to avoid President Vladimir Putin's latest mobilization for the war in Ukraine is likely bigger than the original invasion force, UK intelligence said. 

 

The UK's Ministry of Defense tweeted this estimate on Thursday, writing that there had been a "considerable exodus of Russians seeking to evade call-up."

 

"Whilst exact numbers are unclear, it likely exceeds the size of the total invasion force Russia fielded in February 2022," it said.

 

Click on the link for the full article

 

This will be a brain drain and a drain on their economy as a bunch of their workers won't be working.

[China]

Ukraine Situation Report: Another 18 HIMARS Launchers For Ukraine

 

Another 18 high-mobility artillery rocket systems, or HIMARS, launchers are included in the latest $1.1 billion security assistance package for Ukraine announced on Sept. 28 by the U.S. Defense Department.

 

The weapons and equipment in the latest aid package will be bought directly from industry on Ukraine’s behalf under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI), meaning they are not yet built and could take some time to reach the battlefield.

 

Most of the equipment already donated to Ukraine by the U.S. came from existing Defense Department stocks through Presidential Drawdown Authority, or PDA.

Items in the $1.1 billion package include:

• 18 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) and associated ammunition
• 150 Armored High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles (HMMWVs)
• 150 Tactical Vehicles to tow weapons
• 40 trucks and 80 trailers to transport heavy equipment
• Two radars for Unmanned Aerial Systems
• 20 multi-mission radars
• Counter-Unmanned Aerial Systems
• Tactical secure communications systems, surveillance systems, and optics
• Explosive ordnance disposal equipment
• Body armor and other field equipment
• Funding for training, maintenance, and sustainment

Click on the link for the full article

 

[China]

Russia Says Goodbye To Airbus And Boeing And Goes It Alone

 

In the latest sign that Russia is cutting its ties with the west, state-owned conglomerate Rostec said it would deliver more than 1,000 locally-made airplanes by the decade's end.

 

A report by Reuters yesterday quoted written responses from the manufacturing giant, in which Rostec said:

 

Quote

"Foreign aircraft will drop out of the fleet. We believe that this process is irreversible, and Boeing and Airbus planes will never [again] be delivered to Russia. We don't expect sanctions to be eased and we are building our plans based on the existing tough scenario."

 

Earlier this month, Aeroflot confirmed it had ordered 339 locally built Russian aircraft in an 'import-substituted' form. This means that only parts made in Russia or not sourced from so-called unfriendly countries can be used, including the engines. At the time, Rostec general director Sergei Chemezov said that of the 339 aircraft, almost 300 were new-generation Irkut MS-21 and Superjet aircraft and that the MS-21 would be the flagship of the Aeroflot fleet. The MC-21 and MS-21 are the same aircraft, and it's just that the nomenclature changes in translation.

 

An interesting aspect of the Aeroflot order is that ch-aviation.com data shows the airline currently has 306 aircraft, compared to the 339 locally-made types it has ordered. Its only Russian-built airliners are 76 SSJ 100/95Bs, with the other 230 a mix of Airbus and Boeing aircraft. There are 130 Airbus A320-family and 48 Boeing B737s, the types likely to be replaced by MS-21, which is not due to enter service until 2024/26. Aeroflot's widebody fleet of 52 is a mix of Airbus A330s and A350s and Boeing B747s and B777s.

 

In June, Russia's aviation development plan said it would produce 20 import-substituted Superjet SSJ100/95NEW annually from 2024. However, the Aeroflot announcement said the new regional jet will start to be delivered in 2023, despite the fact the aircraft is not yet fully certified. The hold-up is with the engines, which were previously made by Power-Jet, a France-Russia joint venture between Safran and NPO Saturn.

 

Apart from fleet renewal and grand statements about not needing western aircraft, the real issue is how to keep the existing aircraft operating until the locally made types are available. This applies not only to Aeroflot but to all Russian airlines operating foreign aircraft, and while cannibalizing parts is happening already, that is only sustainable for so long. There have been suggestions that Iran, a friendly country, will be a source of counterfeit parts for Russian airlines, but with so many new generation aircraft operating in Russia, is that really a feasible solution?

 

Click on the link for the full article

[TradeTheBeal!]

Putin so desperate he gave a Bernie Bro speech.

 

 

[China]

Putin Suffers Most Humiliating Ukraine Defeat Yet

 

Moscow planned to celebrated the annexation of huge swathes of Eastern Ukraine Friday but Putin’s party was wrecked by a lightning counter-attack that may have trapped thousands of his men in a key city supposedly now part of Russia.

 

Ukrainian sources claimed that the strategic city of Lyman, which has served as a Russian military hub in Donetsk, has been encircled and supply lines cut. “Lyman! The operation to encircle the Russian group is at the stage of completion,” said Ukrainian lawmaker Oleksiy Goncharenko on Friday, although that claim could not be independently verified.

 

Pro-Kremlin forces have conceded that the Ukrainians have made major gains in the region and are close to cutting off the Russian staging post in northern Donetsk, which has been under Russian control since July.

 

Ukraine said earlier in the week they had made deep gains in the stronghold and were close to taking back the territory—despite the Russian president’s claims that the region now belonged to an enlarged Russia.

 

The humiliation for Moscow will continue to raise speculation that Putin could decide to lash out, in new, more brutal ways.

 

Russian state television political editor Maxim Yusin warned that Putin intended to push the button on a nuclear attack in the “coming days or weeks,” adding that people should “have fun because it would be a shame to live out the remaining time with pessimism.”

 

Click on the link for the full article

[Fan since a Fetus]

Everybody: The sky and weather are beautiful today!!! Life is a gift!!!
 

@TradeTheBeal!: But Bernie Bros. man

[ixcuincle]

 

[The Evil Genius]

 

[CousinsCowgirl84]

48 minutes ago, ixcuincle said:

 

Interesting move since there is zero chance this gets done….

[Wildbunny]

17 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

Interesting move since there is zero chance this gets done….

I'm not so sure anymore.

 

Out of a vaccuum, I would say this won't happen.

But NATO countries have invested so much in Ukraine, and results are beginning to show on the battlefield that I could see NATO welcoming such ally.

 

It probably won't happen in the upcoming year or two. But in 10 years? most definately yeah.

[DCSaints_fan]

1 hour ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

Interesting move since there is zero chance this gets done….

It won't get done as long as the conflict goes on.  But it does basically counter Putin's annexation announcements.  Before the annexation there was a slim chance there could be some agreement on neutrality (but not territory), but now Zelenskyy basically has nothing to lose by announcing this.

[CousinsCowgirl84]

1 hour ago, Wildbunny said:

I'm not so sure anymore.

 

Out of a vaccuum, I would say this won't happen.

But NATO countries have invested so much in Ukraine, and results are beginning to show on the battlefield that I could see NATO welcoming such ally.

 

It probably won't happen in the upcoming year or two. But in 10 years? most definately yeah.

I don’t think Turkey is gonna play ball. In 10 years maybe. But he is applying to get it done on an accelerated basis. Zero chance of that.