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Russian Invasion of Ukraine

PleaseBlitz

By PleaseBlitz
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Ukrainian teen uses dating app to get Russians to reveal their positions

 

A Ukrainian teenager forced out of her home by Russian invaders has turned to technology to get her revenge.

 

She is using a dating app to flirt with enemy soldiers and get them to send her pictures, videos and voicemails.

 

That is leading them to unwittingly give away sensitive information that she is passing on to investigators to help track Russians down.

 

She even got one soldier to reveal the location of a boarding school being used as a base, while another shared pictures of a mansion being used to house a senior officer.

 

The girl’s action has similarities with – Mata Hari – a Dutch exotic dancer and the archetypal femme fatale who used her charms to seduce and spy for Germany during World War I.

 

But despite their similarities, Lisa- not her real name- took inspiration not from her historical counterpart but from a girl on TikTok who had befriended a Russian soldier and passed his info along to the Ukrainian army.

 

To enact a similar plan, Lisa set up a profile on a dating site claiming to be a young Russian woman in Kherson.

 

She was soon inundated with messages from lonely soldiers stationed in the area looking to get her attention.

 

Click on the link for the full article

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The Sisko

The Sisko

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The Ukrainians never cease to amaze me with their creativity and intelligence. From their information/social media judo to their adapting commercial drones to take the Orcs out, to the speed with which they use info like this to drop rounds on Ivan, they’re just killing it. Literally. 

Edited by The Sisko
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Morale is plummeting in Putin’s private army as Russia’s war in Ukraine falters

 

The Ukrainians’ bodies lay side-by-side on the grass, the earth beside them splayed open by a crater. Dragged to the spot by Russian mercenaries, the victims’ arms pointed to where they had died.

 

“Let’s plant a grenade on them,” a voice says in husky Russian, in what appears to be a plan to booby-trap the bodies.

 

“There is no need for a grenade, we will just bash them in,” another says of the Ukrainian soldiers who will come to collect the bodies. The mercenaries then realize they have run out of ammunition.

 

These events seen and heard on battlefield video, exclusive to CNN, along with access to Wagner recruits fighting in Ukraine, and candid, rare interviews CNN has conducted with a former Wagner commander now seeking asylum in Europe, combine to give an unprecedented look at the state of Russia’s premier mercenary force.

 

While problems of supply and morale, as well as allegations of war crimes have been well documented among regular Russian troops, the existence of similar crises among Wagner mercenaries, often described as President Vladimir Putin’s off-the-books shock troops, is a dire omen for Russia’s war in Ukraine.

 

Wagner forces have for several years enjoyed global notoriety. But as Putin’s “special military operation” in Ukraine comes apart at the seams, and the announcement of a “partial mobilization” for much-needed conscripts has prompted more than 200,000 Russian citizens to flee to neighboring countries, the cracks in this supposedly elite force are showing.

 

Battlefield experience is one of two factors ex-Wagner commander Gabidullin – who left the group in 2019 and has since published a memoir of his time working for them – says separates mercenaries from regular Russian troops, the other being money.

 

“The backbone of these groups was always made up of very experienced people who had passed through several wars anyway,” he told CNN.

 

“The Russian army cannot handle [the war] without mercenaries,” according to Gabidullin, adding that there’s “a very big myth, a very big obfuscation about a strong Russian army.”

 

The Kremlin has increasingly relied on Wagner fighters as assault troops, according to Ukraine’s defense ministry. Hidden from official Russian death counts and available for deniable operations, they’ve borne a burden of casualties that have been politically sensitive for Putin in Russia.

 

“Wagner has been suffering high losses in Ukraine, especially and unsurprisingly among young and inexperienced fighters,” according to a senior US defense source speaking in September.

 

Wagner’s ranks have also been depleted by battlefield losses. In response, they’ve turned to unusually public recruitment.

 

In contrast to its image as a military elite organization, a Wagner recruiter had one startling admission regarding recruits when contacted by a CNN journalist: no military experience necessary.

 

In September, video surfaced appearing to be Prigozhin recruiting prisoners from Russian jails for Wagner His offer: a promise of clemency for six months’ combat service in Ukraine, propping up Russia’s flailing invasion.

 

It’s a move that would have been unthinkable months ago for the private military company once considered one of the most professional units in the Kremlin’s arsenal.

 

Wagner’s struggles in Ukraine have set in motion a wider problem: discontent in its ranks. For a group that depends on the appeal of its salaries and work, that’s critical.

 

From intercepted phone calls, Ukrainian intelligence services in August noted a “general decline in morale and the psychological state” of Wagner troops, Ukrainian defense intelligence spokesman Yusov said. It’s a trend he’s also seen in Russian troops more broadly.

 

The reduction in Wagner recruitment requirements point to demoralization too, he said, and the number of “truly professional soldiers who are willing to volunteer to fight with Wagner” is also decreasing.

 

Click on the link for the full article

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Gurgeh

Gurgeh

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3 hours ago, DCSaints_fan said:

Wow, they got to the Kirch strait bridge somehow.  totally didn't see that coming this early

...

 

 

 

The Russians are saying it was a truck bomb. If that's true, it looks like it was set off just as a train carrying oil was going past.

 

*edit* a different and more plausible take on the cause of the explosion:

 

"... A former senior British army explosives expert says the damage to Russia’s Kerch bridge to the Crimean Peninsula looks like “a masterpiece of clandestine sabotage.”

 

The expert says this looks like the work of Ukrainian special forces.

 

He told me: "The lack of obvious blast/fragmentation damage on the road surface suggests that an air-delivered weapon was not used.

"A well-planned attack from below may have been the cause. I suspect explosives on the road bridge and train deck were initiated near simultaneously using coded radio command.”

 

Ukraine war latest: Bridge explosion 'the beginning', Ukrainian adviser says - BBC News

Edited by Gurgeh
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Renegade7

Renegade7

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12 hours ago, The Sisko said:

The Ukrainians never cease to amaze me with their creativity and intelligence. From their information/social media judo to their adapting commercial drones to take the Orcs out, to the speed with which they use info like this to drop rounds on Ivan, they’re just killing it. Literally. 

 

Reminds me when Russians first invaded the Ukranians were changing road signs to confuse the Russians to try and get them lost.

 

 

200w (11).gif

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PokerPacker

PokerPacker

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51 minutes ago, DogofWar1 said:

Man, remind me never to start a war against the Ukranians.  These dudes cray cray.

 

West is like "don't target Kerch Straight Bridge with our weapons." and they're like "k" *makes an old school truck bomb*

Putin fell victim to of one of the classic blunders.  The most famous is "Never go against a Sicilian when death is on the line", but slightly less well known is this: "Never get involved in a land war in Ukraine."

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PeterMP

PeterMP

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2 hours ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Dod9AWz8Rp4Svdpof/why-i-think-there-s-a-one-in-six-chance-of-an-imminent

 

Im not sure about his “probabilities” but I think that it is a good basic roadmap of the possibilities.

 

The biggest thing I don't think he's accounted for is Putin dying through assassination or just natural death and that allowing for a Russian "reset" (at least with respect to Ukraine).

 

Especially it seems like the pace of the war will slow down with winter coming.

 

To try to compare to Vietnam, the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution was passed in Aug. 1964.  So if we use that as are our "start" date (we were already involved in Vietnam before that), it isn't even the summer of Aug. 1965 (which by that time Johnson had increased the drafts).

 

In the Summer of 1965, the US wasn't ready to accept a Vietnam either.  It isn't really until the 1970s, that the US accepts a "Vietnam" out come to Vietnam.  That's 4 or 5 years away.

 

Similar in the Soviet-Afghan war.  The Soviets invade in 1979.  They start looking for an exit in 1983 and the Soviets don't actually withdraw until 1987.

 

Is Putin/Russia ready to accept a "Vietnam" without use of tactical nuclear weapons today?  No.  But in 4 years?  Who knows?

 

We get caught up in the speed at which news travels and the ebbs and flows and it is easy to forget this is something that is going to likely play out over years (unfortunately for the people's lives that are really being impacted by it).  And what seems like is not possible today will change, especially with Putin being 70.

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CousinsCowgirl84

CousinsCowgirl84

Posted
Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, PeterMP said:

 

The biggest thing I don't think he's accounted for is Putin dying through assassination or just natural death and that allowing for a Russian "reset" (at least with respect to Ukraine).

 

Especially it seems like the pace of the war will slow down with winter coming.

 

To try to compare to Vietnam, the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution was passed in Aug. 1964.  So if we use that as are our "start" date (we were already involved in Vietnam before that), it isn't even the summer of Aug. 1965 (which by that time Johnson had increased the drafts).

 

In the Summer of 1965, the US wasn't ready to accept a Vietnam either.  It isn't really until the 1970s, that the US accepts a "Vietnam" out come to Vietnam.  That's 4 or 5 years away.

 

Similar in the Soviet-Afghan war.  The Soviets invade in 1979.  They start looking for an exit in 1983 and the Soviets don't actually withdraw until 1987.

 

Is Putin/Russia ready to accept a "Vietnam" without use of tactical nuclear weapons today?  No.  But in 4 years?  Who knows?

 

We get caught up in the speed at which news travels and the ebbs and flows and it is easy to forget this is something that is going to likely play out over years (unfortunately for the people's lives that are really being impacted by it).  And what seems like is not possible today will change, especially with Putin being 70.


everything I read seems to say that the oligarchy beyond Putin is more nationalistic and wants him to take more outrageous steps. The opposition mostly fled the country….

 

but your scenerio is a “david wins” scenerio…

Edited by CousinsCowgirl84
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The Sisko

The Sisko

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, PeterMP said:

 

The biggest thing I don't think he's accounted for is Putin dying through assassination or just natural death and that allowing for a Russian "reset" (at least with respect to Ukraine).

 

Especially it seems like the pace of the war will slow down with winter coming.

 

To try to compare to Vietnam, the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution was passed in Aug. 1964.  So if we use that as are our "start" date (we were already involved in Vietnam before that), it isn't even the summer of Aug. 1965 (which by that time Johnson had increased the drafts).

 

In the Summer of 1965, the US wasn't ready to accept a Vietnam either.  It isn't really until the 1970s, that the US accepts a "Vietnam" out come to Vietnam.  That's 4 or 5 years away.

 

Similar in the Soviet-Afghan war.  The Soviets invade in 1979.  They start looking for an exit in 1983 and the Soviets don't actually withdraw until 1987.

 

Is Putin/Russia ready to accept a "Vietnam" without use of tactical nuclear weapons today?  No.  But in 4 years?  Who knows?

 

We get caught up in the speed at which news travels and the ebbs and flows and it is easy to forget this is something that is going to likely play out over years (unfortunately for the people's lives that are really being impacted by it).  And what seems like is not possible today will change, especially with Putin being 70.

It's possible this lasts for a number of years, depending on how things play out but I seriously doubt it. Once the current Ukrainian offensive slows down due to winter, the Russians are really going to start dying. They don't have much in the way of winter clothing or supplies and few prospects of getting more. If the Russian army continues to be ground down due to the weather while the Ukrainians keep up some pressure on the front lines, there will be a collapse. Even if there isn't a major collapse over the winter, Putin would be going into next year with a much smaller force and a much less well trained one, while the Ukrainians will have had time to consolidate gains, train more troops, and get more western weapons and ammo. With few ways to resupply his forces, he needs more bang for the buck from the munitions they can get to the front. So ultimately, I think he's going to have to use chemical weapons at least, in order to slow them down. Hopefully, even Putler realizes that if there's no future human history, neither he nor Russia will have achieved any greatness. I'm not at all certain he realizes that though.😟

Edited by The Sisko
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