The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Skinsinparadise]

2 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

I’d put pretty good money on us sticking at 2 (and I’m quite cautious).  Bringing in Penix though gives me the feeling Peters is putting bait in the water to see what kind of bites he gets.  I think we can all agree Penix isn’t going to be the pick at 2 and top 30 visits are valuable.

IMO, basically a zero percent chance he’d move back to 11, but if Minny can get up to 4 or 5?  Who knows (I’d still doubt it though).

 

Bram the other day was talking not being sure who they pick but the one thing he is confident in is that they are staying at 2.

[Bifflog]

6 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

To me, blind faith in this franchise is way more ridiculous than trusting your own eyes.

 

...

 

6 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

Where does your rock solid confidence in this team's ability to get it right come from?

 

So, what is it you attribute to "this franchise."  If the entire power structure has been upended, from top to bottom, what is the common thread that makes you immediately doubt them and think will continue exactly as they had under Snyder?  Either you are way, way too high on your own supply, or you are admitting to believing in curses.  And I want them to take Maye.

Edited April 16 by Bifflog

[Skinsinparadise]

10 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

We'll see what happens on draft night, maybe he takes the QB that I think is the no-brainer choice.  But why assume that he's not going to blow this?  To me, blind faith in this franchise is way more ridiculous than trusting your own eyes.

 

 

Because of the same point I debated with you some months back when you reference "this franchise"

 

By just about every account, this franchise sucked for one specific reason.  Dan Snyder.  You didn't spend much time posting on the GM-owner thread over the years.  But we'd lament over and over again about how much Dan Snyder destroyed this franchise.   As much as I loved this team, cared about the draft, personnel, all of it -- my #1 desire by a country mile was to be rid of Dan.  Everything else was a distant 2nd.  And now he's gone.

 

Dan wasn't a sidebar to the demise of the franchise.  He was the lead actor and the whole cast.  He's gone.  It's 100% different.  That's been evident to death.

 

I became a fan in the 80s.  I saw that this was one of the best run franchises in the country.  It was lauded for it's class and competence.  There was a period when this franchise was worth more than the Cowboys.    Albert Breer actualy had a great post on this once which is he's never seen a model franchise destroyed the way Dan Snyder destroyed this one.

 

To cite that its a "franchise" issue gives credit to Dan like the poor sap inherited a perrennial losing organization and it just continued under his watch.  But the opposite is true.  He turned a name brand into a joke.  He's gone.  

 

Edited April 16 by Skinsinparadise

[Conn]

37 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

My friend, the healthy and rational choice was to cut bait on this franchise a long time ago.  And even if our team was good and not terrible, what we've been doing here for the past 20 years is participating in the dude version of fangirl chat boards for Ru Paul's Drag Race.  It's fundamentally irrational and unhealthy.

 

What's the response going to be from everyone if we draft Jayden and he ends up being the next Justin Fields, and Drake Maye ends up being the next Josh Allen?

 

That would suck tremendously—I even think it has a high likelihood of happening, as I said I agree with you on Maye vs Daniels. It’s the absolute certainty I’m not into, although I love to read the strong opinions on here. 
 

It would also suck if we take Maye and he busts and Daniels ends up good, as others have said. 
 

But as I said in PM’s to someone else, we aren’t a miracle savior away from being a good franchise anymore. I want to compete for Super Bowls with a franchise QB under Peters/Quinn as much as anyone. If the sports world is right about Harris, and we’re building an overall organization that values process > outcome, there will be accountability. If this regime beefs it, another qualified one will be hired and hope remains alive. Do I want them to fail? No. Do I think Peters is a great GM candidate (even if people make assumptions about what he’ll be good at based on rumors and media reputation)? Yes. Is this our one shot at being a great franchise, the way you needed a savior under Snyder to have any sort of a chance or even hope? No. 
 

This is a monumental decision at a grand pivot point in our history as a franchise. But it’s also “just” the start of an era of professionalism and respectability that we haven’t experienced in my lifetime. I want Peters and Quinn to be the ones to get it right and bring us into the sun. But nailing one singular QB pick and hoping he’s a HOF talent that can drag us out of the gutter is no longer our only path to relevance and fun, thankfully.

Edited April 16 by Conn

[The Consigliere]

2 hours ago, Going Commando said:

 

I'm convinced drafting Daniels over Maye is a mistake, and I don't have any interest in rationalizing or normalizing a mistake.  I can't cope with a loss of faith in the team by trying to trick myself.  I'm just going to have to take a step back if/when we do it, and accept that my expectations got too high.  This team is not worth high blood pressure.

 

[Skinsinparadise]

NFL draft quarterback tiers: Scouts and execs stack 11 QBs

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/39914870/2024-nfl-draft-quarterback-tiers-scouts-executives-caleb-williams-jayden-daniels-drake-maye

 

For the third time in four years, quarterbacks will dominate the discussion around the NFL draft.

The 2021 and 2023 classes saw passers occupy three of the first four picks, and that could be the case in the 2024 NFL draft beginning April 25 (8 p.m. ET on ESPN, ABC, ESPN App). The teams at the top -- Bears (No. 1), Commanders (No. 2) and Patriots (No. 3) -- are all hoping to channel Houston's success with C.J. Stroud last season, coveting the idea of a brilliant passer under a rookie contract. This is one of the deeper quarterback drafts in recent memory, with at least seven passers angling for Day 1 or Day 2 billing.

The NFL's new reality is quarterbacks, always highly scrutinized, are ultimately elevated come draft season. And they will play early: Eight rookie draft picks started a total of 60 games last season. The premium nature of the position and long-standing mythology around it ensures fans and draft observers will be watching closely to see where the quarterbacks land.

The NFL executives, scouts and coaches tasked with evaluating those players will be watching, too, after spending weeks and months determining how they believe each will fare at the next level. We turned to those insiders to give us a window into the construction of quarterback draft boards, offering their own player comparisons and a sense of where they believe each of the draft-worthy QBs could be selected. We then placed those quarterbacks in order and into tiers, reflecting the consensus of experts within the league on the abilities of each player.

 

Tier 2

 

Jayden Daniels, LSU

 

Most frequent scout/exec comp: No clear consensus

Daniels has a slight edge on Drake Maye for the No. 2 spot in the 2024 quarterback hierarchy because of his readiness to play. Firmly on the radar as a top-three pick, Daniels is tabbed by many executives as the most viable option for Washington at No. 2, though first-year GM Adam Peters has hidden his plans well.

Daniels proved a potent passer, particularly in the intermediate range, during his Heisman Trophy campaign at LSU, improving greatly from his erratic start at Arizona State. He produced a historic season at LSU, ranking first in FBS with 4,946 yards of total offense, third highest in SEC history, behind only Joe Burrow (2019) and Johnny Manziel (2012).

"Elite traits," an NFC executive said. "He's always been an athlete but showed more clubs in the bag. Throws the ball really well and his decision-making is good. Accurate. Grown a lot as far as operating a passing game with rhythm and timing. Can make progressions. An impressive prospect."

That said, Daniels' arm strength is considered above average, not elite. He's a running quarterback but a more polished thrower than many dual-threat passers, per multiple scouts. Multiple execs compared his running style to Robert Griffin III out of Baylor, showing impressive straight-line burst. Daniels' frame and durability are concerns. Other comps included Russell Wilson and Bryce Young.

"He played 190 to 200 [pounds] his whole career and he takes shots," an NFC exec said. "This year, he showed more play from the pocket, which helps him a ton. Better thrower than Lamar [Jackson] was coming out and it's not close. He can do the read-option and the mobility stuff. The question is, when those easy 20-yard runs aren't there in the NFL, is he willing to take the easy 8-yard gain from the pocket and avoid taking hits? He's got to protect himself better. I think he will."

Daniels threw with precision at his pro day, with Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury noticeably excited by what he saw. The feedback on Daniels' team interviews was positive, with one AFC coach calling his presence "like the cool kid that everyone wants to talk to and be around," which will help him in locker room settings.

Down-in, down-out accuracy is a concern for some.

"Love the total package, and his legs will buy him time to create and make plays, but from a condensed pocket, in those 'gotta have it' situations, he can struggle when the pocket isn't clean," an AFC scout said. "He would make the receiver work for the ball, where at the next level that's a batted pass or incompletion."

Drake Maye, North Carolina

 

Most frequent scout/exec comps: Josh Allen (with less arm strength), Carson Wentz

Teams that place high value on physical traits in their quarterback evaluation will love Maye, who is the classic upside play with high boom-or-bust potential. "Extremely gifted athlete, best size of all the guys -- confident he's still developing with enormous upside," said an NFC exec of the 6-foot-4, 223-pound Maye. "Can make all of the throws and is a very good athlete to create on his own as a runner and passer. Highly competitive. He's got star potential."

Maye helped elevate a subpar supporting cast to produce 359 plays of 10-plus yards since 2022, second to Michael Penix Jr. in the FBS. While some evaluators place him in Tier 1, above Daniels and on par with Williams, others knocked him for lack of refinement.

 

play

"Huge upside, but way more of a project than he appears to be," an NFL coordinator said. "Footwork all over the place, same with his eyes. Kind of just makes plays off raw talent and athleticism. Thought he would be much more polished."

Multiple coaches say Maye flourishes while creating off schedule but not often enough when on time, with one pointing out: "I've got a 50-play cut-up of him dropping back, seeing an open window and taking off to run."

To be sure, Maye underwent coordinator changes at North Carolina and didn't have enough support at the receiver and offensive line spots. His running ability is a premium, with shades of Allen, though his arm strength isn't considered on par with Allen or Justin Herbert -- "good but not that good," as one AFC scout put it, who rated it at a seven out of 10. Maye throws an impressive deep ball, particularly on post routes, coaches say.

"He does need some time, and there will be growing pains, but you take him because he has the most upside of everybody," one high-ranking NFL personnel man said. "There's major ability there. I worry that if you take him and you don't have a supporting cast and a good offensive line or receivers and he has to play right away, he will struggle early."

Multiple evaluators pointed out Minnesota is the perfect place for Maye in that regard, should the Vikings move up to get him. Scouts noted he's smart, relaxed and even witty in interviews.

"Super competitive and will rush for 400 to 500 yards a year," an AFC scout said. "He's just never played big in big moments, doesn't have that signature win to elevate his team, though he wasn't always in the position to provide that."

---

 

Tier 2.5

 

J.J. McCarthy, Michigan

 

Most frequent scout/exec comp: Mix of Kirk Cousins and Brock Purdy

McCarthy is easily the most fascinating -- and polarizing -- quarterback prospect in the draft. Evaluators are truly all over the map. Some see elite talent, maybe the best long-term play of the group, while others see fringe first-round or even second-round talent. He's very close to Tier 2.

"I don't see him getting past [Pick] 5 or 6," an NFC exec said. "Definitely not getting out of the top 10. Anticipation, decision-making, preparation, coming from pro-style offense -- he's got a lot going for him. You see him process, go through progressions. That's an easier predictor of what it would look like at the NFL level."

Added a high-ranking NFL official: "I'm buying the hype that he goes high. He's got something to him from a leadership and makeup standpoint that resonates."

McCarthy gets the game manager label, having averaged 22.6 passing attempts per game over the past two seasons (29 games). That lack of in-game volume only heightened the scrutiny around McCarthy's pro day, where McCarthy "validated some things" with "one of the best pro days I've seen as a passer," according to one veteran NFL personnel evaluator.

 

play

"Movement ability, arm talent, laying the football, throwing off-platform. He did it all [at his pro day]," the evaluator said. As one NFL national scout put it, "[McCarthy] wasn't a game manager because they had to hide something -- he has high-level traits. It's more a function of Jim Harbaugh's offense. He's never been asked to throw 30-plus times a game but I think he can handle it." An AFC offensive coach counters: "[Former Michigan coach Jim] Harbaugh didn't trust him like he did Andrew Luck. When he makes a mistake, Harbaugh leans into the running game even more so during the flow of the game."

 

Multiple teams believe Minnesota or Denver could be trade-up options for McCarthy, who's considered a good fit in both places. He'd be best served to sit a year behind a veteran, per multiple scouts. McCarthy's 39.0 total QBR when under pressure was among the best of nearly 250 FBS quarterbacks with at least 25 starts over the past decade, trailing only Joe Burrow (49.0) and Trevor Lawrence (44.0). Stroud was tied with McCarthy at 39.0.

"I just don't see it," said an AFC scout of the McCarthy hype. "I don't see consistent accuracy, his ability to get it done inside the white lines, and [the Michigan staff] didn't call games or play offensively like they trusted him." But one reason he's rising? "What you're seeing now is the coaches and coordinators are more involved in the draft process [in March and April], and they are realizing, s---, he's a pro already," the NFC exec said. "And he showed more arm strength at his pro day than I thought he had."

---

 

 

 

[kingdaddy]

Picture Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, Drew Brees, Joe Burrow, even Eli Manning and the way they all can/could decipher a defense at the line of scrimmage. Understanding what the QB is seeing from a defense is the true defining skill in becoming a very good NFL QB. Many prospects never figure this out, at least on their 1st contract, and end up being journeyman QB's for the rest of their careers. My question for the QB experts on this site: Which of the QB prospects is most likely to figure out how to read NFL defenses and have the skills to get the ball where it needs to go? Everything else is important but secondary to truly feeling calm and deciphering different defensive looks. 

This year I watched Jalen Hurts become totally helpless against defenses that blitzed him. He couldn't use his legs to escape it and couldn't get the ball to any of his receivers consistently at the end of the season. I also think his coaches let him down some but he clearly wasn't comfortable when being blitzed.  

If the answer to this question is Maye then I'm on board with him. If it's Daniels then I'm on board.  If the answer is clearly McCarthy then I'll take him too. Hopefully the coaches/GM will figure this out and make the right choice by picking a QB who can control a game with his eyes and brain by figuring out what he's seeing and then executing. I guess this is really the billion dollar question when drafting a QB. 

[The Consigliere]

2 hours ago, Going Commando said:

 

I'm convinced drafting Daniels over Maye is a mistake, and I don't have any interest in rationalizing or normalizing a mistake.  I can't cope with a loss of faith in the team by trying to trick myself.  I'm just going to have to take a step back if/when we do it, and accept that my expectations got too high.  This team is not worth high blood pressure.

Like you talked about with the Wizards. The wizards pummelled the hell out of my fandom in the eighties and nineties, and the idiotic Webber trade 26 years ago, so obviously stupid from the jump, following another previous stupid trade (Wallace for Strickland and Duckworth) smashed what was left of my faith, and I kind of turned the setting to low over the next 20 years, and then, and then the Wall fall happened in '19 and I spent four years on Realgm screaming bloody murder for the idiots to trade Beal because with Wall's fall, any attempt to finish the Wall/Beal build was utterly hopeless, and some fans (the same that would've preferred us to beat the cowboys in January, or were mad we lost to the Jets and Giants in December and November) contested the argument but over time ALL OF THEM understood what some of us knew the moment fell coming out of the shower and compounded the previous injury he had with an achilles career killer-that this build was hopeless. But the team persisted, and for years across the winter deadline, and summer trade season with the insane stupidity of trying to build around Beal as a centerpiece, finally turning what was huge value in '19-'21, into negative value by the time they finally traded him the summer of '22 after providing him that anvil contract w/a NTC. 

 

There are times when a FO can do things that cripple fandom. The handling of Beal, turned me from a passive observer to a non-observer. Of course since then they finally figured it out, with hilarious timing, having eschewed trading him 1. at his peak value 2. with the prior more reasonable draft lottery odds and 3. when there were back to back to back good to great classes, just in time for the worst Draft class in a decade ('24), and the worst system of odds for the lottery to tank (the new ones). 

 

No FO ever deserves your complete trust, and when they make cripplingly stupid decisions, well, lets just say I fully understand why you'd be interested in just turning the page and your attention elsewhere. There is a reason why my attention, and focus in sports, moved from DC Sports teams and associated teams I followed over the decades moved to the USMNT and soccer, flipping entirely over the past 20 years, even with the mismanagement at the USMNT Fed. They've earned some measure of trust, and made some drastic decisions when they've clearly screwed up after all. Not so much the Nats, Redskins or Wizards/Boulez over the years. 

[KDawg]

1 hour ago, Conn said:

I get it, I can be an extremely opinionated person as well. I even agree with you on Maye vs Daniels. But in this case, I don’t think such certainty is healthy or rational. We’ve all completely whiffed and been loud wrong on QB prospects in recent years, including you. 

I haven’t.

 

Shane Buechele is waiting for his moment.

[88Comrade2000]

I think you want a qb, who can be a 10-15 year starter.  You pick the one you feel meets that standard and pray 🙏 your choice is the right one.

 

You don’t second guess, you make your choice and live with it. Sure, you could end up picking the wrong guy; but that’s why your getting paid for.

 

Make the best choice you feel and live with it.

 

For me, I think Maye represents the best opportunity to do that. I see Daniels having a great year or two but then fading as his body gets beat up. 
 

Unlike some, I will not be upset if they pick the qb I’m against. I will want them to do everything to make sure my fears about that qb, don’t come true.

[The Consigliere]

4 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Sharp has been out to get Maye for months.  First guy to put Maye out of the top ten in a mock.  The list of people who are going to look bad if Maye excels is somewhat long:  Randy Mueller, Chris Simms, Berkert, Sharp among others.

 

While I do get why some could prefer Daniels.  I don't get all the hate Maye gets from some quarters.  Besides being a good player IMO, he also comes off like a super nice guy.

 

 

 

 

 

 

In fairness, that is ugly as hell. 

 

Additionally, no matter how good you are at this, the best anyone is is generally 45-55% over a long sample size. I don't believe anyone is hitting at 60% or more over a long enough stretch to be reasonably correlated to genuine talent at eval. 

 

I'll also note, hit rate recently tends to inflate people's #'s. QB's have hit a lot more at the top of the draft since '16 compared to 1984-2015. Goff, Mahomes, Watson, Baker, Allen, Lamar, Kyler, Burrow, Herbert, (Tua Kinda), Lawrence, Stroud, Richardson. Compare that to the entire decade of the nineties where literally everyone busted who was taken early other than Bledsoe and McNabb. 

[TurningTheCorner]

"Elite traits," an NFC executive said. "He's always been an athlete but showed more clubs in the bag. Throws the ball really well and his decision-making is good. Accurate. Grown a lot as far as operating a passing game with rhythm and timing. Can make progressions. An impressive prospect."
 

None of this sounds like “skinny Justin Fields”

 

It feels like a pretty generic lazy take based on the fact both can run at an elite level. I get the sense what makes Daniels such a great prospect in the eyes of many is his ability to quickly process the field and make the right decisions. And that the progress he made between his fourth in fifth years indicates there is still some untapped potential left in the tank. And please spare me the he’s not going to get better at age 23 argument, he’s still got a lot of learning and growing to do.

Maye is more projection. If he booms he will boom. But I could totally see him becoming a Wentz as well. These forgone conclusions that we are passing on Josh Allen for Skinny Justin fields feels a bit much. 

[Llevron]

1 hour ago, Going Commando said:

 

My friend, the healthy and rational choice was to cut bait on this franchise a long time ago.  And even if our team was good and not terrible, what we've been doing here for the past 20 years is participating in the dude version of fangirl chat boards for Ru Paul's Drag Race.  It's fundamentally irrational and unhealthy.

 

What's the response going to be from everyone if we draft Jayden and he ends up being the next Justin Fields, and Drake Maye ends up being the next Josh Allen?

 

Its funny how true this is. Maybe i need help. 

 

If he is the next Justin fields, and we have built a good team around him, would be to let Peters and Quinn have one more crack at it. If they have not built a good team around him then I would be ready for a change at one of the spots. 

[skinny21]

28 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Bram the other day was talking not being sure who they pick but the one thing he is confident in is that they are staying at 2.

I am too.  I’m also confident Penix is not in consideration at 2.  And I’m confident they value their 30 visits.  Something’s gotta give there, right?

 

 

 

I have to say I’m coming around on McCarthy.  Or rather, he’s been steadily rising in my estimation.  Young, pedigreed, good arm, good under pressure, very athletic, excellent numbers on 3rd/4th and long, and seems like he has high end leadership traits.  Slight frame doesn’t bother me too much - I see more of a path to add good weight than with Daniels.  His statement to his fellow recruiting class blew me away.  In short, I see a solid floor, a relatively unknown ceiling, and the intangibles that make you think he has a reasonable shot at reaching that ceiling.

 

I’ll be happy with any of the 3, though while I’ll be hoping for the best, I can’t help expecting the worst (the worst being mediocrity, ala the Giants with Jones, not our choice busting hard).  

[Llevron]

27 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

Picture Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, Drew Brees, Joe Burrow, even Eli Manning and the way they all can/could decipher a defense at the line of scrimmage. Understanding what the QB is seeing from a defense is the true defining skill in becoming a very good NFL QB. Many prospects never figure this out, at least on their 1st contract, and end up being journeyman QB's for the rest of their careers. My question for the QB experts on this site: Which of the QB prospects is most likely to figure out how to read NFL defenses and have the skills to get the ball where it needs to go? Everything else is important but secondary to truly feeling calm and deciphering different defensive looks. 

This year I watched Jalen Hurts become totally helpless against defenses that blitzed him. He couldn't use his legs to escape it and couldn't get the ball to any of his receivers consistently at the end of the season. I also think his coaches let him down some but he clearly wasn't comfortable when being blitzed.  

If the answer to this question is Maye then I'm on board with him. If it's Daniels then I'm on board.  If the answer is clearly McCarthy then I'll take him too. Hopefully the coaches/GM will figure this out and make the right choice by picking a QB who can control a game with his eyes and brain by figuring out what he's seeing and then executing. I guess this is really the billion dollar question when drafting a QB. 

 

This is why they should draft Daniels. He is already doing this. Yes, there is a possibility Maye will get to where he is in a few years. Daniels is starting there. If you think you can make him better at it, and he can process the field like Payton one day....just think of how good he can be. Thats what you are projecting if you pick his guy. Not that he will out run defenses into his 30s. You are picking him because you think he can see and understand to that level sometime in the future, and his legs are a REALLY ****ing good oh **** option that will keep you ahead of the chains. 

[The Consigliere]

1 hour ago, Going Commando said:

 

I don't think it is.  I think the placement on his deep ball is erratic, and it's not so much the overthrows, it's the leaving it inside and short so often that worry me.  So many plays where Brian Thomas had to hold up waiting on the ball or run back toward the field to track the ball.  Those are turnover throws in NFL zones.  So are the floating ducks he throws to the far hash flat.  So are the plays where he takes to long to pull the trigger on crossers and puts it behind.  And so are the plays when he rolls into an occupied flat and has to pick his eyes back up and look for options down field after losing his picture, and nothing is open down the sideline for him.

Didn't someone post his deep ball acccuracy '19-'22 and it was largely yuck as hell? Again there's an outlier piece to this, I worry about stickiness in one year production bits. I buy he was solid to good '19-'22, I don't buy the God Mode of '23 as meaningful considering it never was close to repeated in any other season. It is the essence of outlierness. People should be figuring out how much they like what he did in '19, '21, '22, '23 collectively and decide based on equal weighting of that cv, because that's who he's been over a long sample size, not god mode '23. Just as Drake has '22 in his resume, but also a bit of a dip in '23, and in season dips to boot. 

[Chump Bailey]

Some kind soul on YouTube has posted some great videos of the top QB's - "all throws and runs." I'm no stranger to going out on a limb on prospects. I'm starting to sour a little on Daniels - and I do mean a little nothing major but, I now am of the opinion that JJ is my QB#2. He's just as good an athlete with a better arm as Daniels for me. I still think Caleb belongs in a tier of his own. I still need to watch a lot more including Maye. 

[Warhead36]

Nobody should ever have blind faith. Its ok to question and criticize. Doesn't mean you don't trust the regime. Doesn't mean you want them fired on the spot. But nobody should be immune to second guessing. Except maybe Andy Reid and the Chiefs regime at this point.

[jg77]

Taking Maye over Daniels could easily be like Chicago taking Trubisky over Mahomes and Watson.  Nobody knows anything on how these prospects will turn out.

[Panninho]

 

Curious why they have this timeline. Guess they have their reasons but from the outside looking in it seems a bit weird to not have them all there separately.

 

 

[The Consigliere]

1 hour ago, Conn said:

I get it, I can be an extremely opinionated person as well. I even agree with you on Maye vs Daniels. But in this case, I don’t think such certainty is healthy or rational. We’ve all completely whiffed and been loud wrong on QB prospects in recent years, including you. 

I shouldn't be speaking for him, but honestly when it comes to looking at those guys, I think what Commando and I both have is our Zach Wilson/Trey Lance/Danny Dimes going off like a fire alarm. At least for me, it isn't that I'm sure I'm right on who will hit, or who will bust, I'm just sure I'm right, on who has the most deeply concerning traits/metrics on his career length cv. It should be pretty obvious here the pitfalls with a Daniels. There are plenty with Maye as well, and at the end of the day, historically speaking, the hit chance as a stud or a bust with either of them is probably floating between a near coin flip and maybe 10-15% better chance of a coin flip, so its not so much certainity of what will happen as to certainty on which path is more strewn with dangers, lots and lots of dangers, and far more predictably negative ones, than the other. Every lesson I've learned with QB drafting the past 35 years connects to raging alarms over Daniels profile. That's why I'm scared ----less at the thought of drafting. It's not that I'm sure he's gonna hit or bust, it's that I'm sure there's far more rational reasons to get why he'll bust, or could bust, compared to Maye. There are lessons with guys like Wilson, and Pickett and Danny Nickels over the years, and they are not being heeded remotely if the rumored Daniels selection is true. That is alarming as hell. Doesn't mean I'm certain of anything, other than that past history suggests Daniels is a lot more risky than the NFL appears to think. 

 

However, having been wrong a gazillion times on who will hit, I could be wrong about Daniels future, I just don't think I'm wrong about the risk, hit or not. As an example, Henry Ruggs might have hit for the Raiders, minus the accident, he was on his way to an improved 2nd year at the time after all, but that wouldn't have changed the foolishness of their process that lead to selecting him over Lamb. It was just bad process period. That's how I feel about Daniels. It should be obvious why this is a mistake. He could hit anyway, Maye could hit anyway. If Danny Nickels hit for the giants, he didn't, but if he had, it was still bad process, same with Haskins for us that year. Good process doesn't get you a 100% hit rate, it just ramps up your chances, and reduces your risk, that's what I want, and why I feel we're going astray. But, like I mentioned yesterday, there may be proprietary data, hidden details, background checks, data we don't have, that is also instructive in why they'd go that way, its just based on what I've seen, and have access too, Daniels is just riskier, period. I hope to God I'm wrong if he's the pick, and no, I won't be annoyed in the least at being wrong if he hits, other than possibly being short shares of him in dynasty. I'll also be curious what details unfold in stories over time as to why I was wrong in the eval, sometimes it's obvious something was missed, sometimes it's just randomness and outlierdom. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. The class reminds me a lot of '99 and '18, I just hope the hit rate is more '04/'20. 

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

1 hour ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

He’s awful under pressure. He always has been. The only reason that some of his metrics looked better under pressure this year is because his coaches realized that as a QB, he sucks under pressure and told him that whenever it happens he needs to turn into a running back.

 

so here’s the situation if you draft him at number two, you’re either hoping that he’s never going to have to play under pressure, or you’re thinking that he is just going to run every single time that he gets pressured with his stick figure frame, or you believe he’s going to suddenly learn how to play under pressure even though he couldn’t do it in five years of college football.

[Panninho]

Dude, everyone says something different. This is getting absurd. 😅

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 16 by Panninho

[CommanderInTheRye]

1 hour ago, kingdaddy said:

Picture Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, Drew Brees, Joe Burrow, even Eli Manning and the way they all can/could decipher a defense at the line of scrimmage. Understanding what the QB is seeing from a defense is the true defining skill in becoming a very good NFL QB. Many prospects never figure this out, at least on their 1st contract, and end up being journeyman QB's for the rest of their careers. My question for the QB experts on this site: Which of the QB prospects is most likely to figure out how to read NFL defenses and have the skills to get the ball where it needs to go? Everything else is important but secondary to truly feeling calm and deciphering different defensive looks. 

This year I watched Jalen Hurts become totally helpless against defenses that blitzed him. He couldn't use his legs to escape it and couldn't get the ball to any of his receivers consistently at the end of the season. I also think his coaches let him down some but he clearly wasn't comfortable when being blitzed.  

If the answer to this question is Maye then I'm on board with him. If it's Daniels then I'm on board.  If the answer is clearly McCarthy then I'll take him too. Hopefully the coaches/GM will figure this out and make the right choice by picking a QB who can control a game with his eyes and brain by figuring out what he's seeing and then executing. I guess this is really the billion dollar question when drafting a QB. 

 

 

"My question for the QB experts on this site: Which of the QB prospects is most likely to figure out how to read NFL defenses and have the skills to get the ball where it needs to go? Everything else is important but secondary to truly feeling calm and deciphering different defensive looks. "

 

I am not a qb expert.

 

I am not even a novice level evaluator of technical qb excellence, beyond the superficial, "Damn, that sure was a great play!", observation.

 

That said, if I were to honestly answer the question:  Which college qb  deciphered defenses best, and eviscerated them, like a master surgeon removing an appendix?

 

My answer would be Michael Penix Jr.

 

We're, of course, not going to draft him, and we shouldn't given his injury history-- unless we move down in a trade which would be a highly improbable result.

 

As for the opinion of a true football expert, we need go no further than our newly anointed head coach,  Dan Quinn who said:

 

"Jayden Daniels' superpower is post-snap processing."

 

Quinn said that the most critical quality he looks for in a  quarterback is post-snap processing speed and accuracy.

 

Modern defenses try to fool qbs with fake pre-snap looks. Quin believes that qbs that can process quickly, once the ball is in play and the original look changes, are the hardest to defend and give your team the best chance to win.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 16 by CommanderInTheRye

[DWinzit]

4 minutes ago, Panninho said:

Is there a list of who other than thee 4 QB's are coming in? I believe I've seen two TE's only, Sanders and All